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Morning bid: Obstacle course ahead
  + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic said they expect Fed rates - now at 4.25% to 4.5% - will need to rise to a 5% to 5.25% range to sap inflation. The other big market obstacle of the week is the onset of the U.S. corporate earnings season. Four American banking giants - JPMorgan (JPM.N), Bank of America (BAC.N), Citigroup (C.N) and Wells Fargo (WFC.N) - report earnings on Friday. Diaried events and data releases that may provide direction to U.S. and world markets later on Tuesday:* U.S. Dec NFIB small business survey. * U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem and European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel all speak at Swedish central bank event.
Justin Bieber had lashed out at H&M on Instagram for selling "trash" merch featuring his image. The Swedish fast-fashion giant clarified Thursday it has the rights to sell merch featuring the singer's imagery. H&M said on Thursday it had obtained the rights to sell merchandise featuring Bieber's imagery, following the artist's harsh criticism that he "didn't approve" them. The clarification came after Bieber slammed the items on his Instagram stories on Monday, where he called the merch "trash" and urged his 270 million followers not to buy them. H&M has now said it removed the merch from its stores and website "out of respect" for Bieber.
October retail sales gained the most in five months, though it was a notch lower than the 1.5% rise forecast by analysts. September's decline was revised downward a decimal point to 0.6% from a previously reported drop of 0.5%, Statistics Canada said. October sales were driven mostly by price increases at gasoline stations and in food and beverage, Statistics Canada said. In volume terms, retail sales were flat. "Retail sales posted a solid increase in October, though the gain came from higher prices, particularly at gasoline stations," Shelly Kaushik, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note.
In response, Musk tweeted: "You first lol." On Thursday evening, Musk suspended the accounts of at least half a dozen journalists and tweeted an explanation for the move. He claimed the suspended journalists had doxxed him, a violation of Twitter's updated privacy policy that was put in place on Wednesday. Musk also alleged on Thursday that the suspended journalists had posted his real-time location online, calling them "basically assassination coordinates." In response, Musk tweeted: "Stop hitting on me, I'm really shy."
"It's a close call but we're expecting a 50-basis-point rate hike from the Bank of Canada," Benjamin Reitzes, Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note. In October, the Bank of Canada forecast that economic growth would stall from the fourth quarter this year through the middle of next year. "Whether or not the Bank of Canada raises rates 25 or 50 basis points, there's a separate question about whether the Bank of Canada can or should really be committing to raise rates further in 2023," said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group. The bank has been providing forward guidance that it "expects that the policy interest rate will need to rise further" since it began this tightening cycle. "At some point, the Bank of Canada is going to be in a position where it's appropriate to just let rates be for a while," Mendes said.
Fourteen said the BoC would dial down its pace to 25 basis points. Of the large Canadian banks, Scotiabank, CIBC and National Bank expected a 50 basis point move with no further hikes afterward. RBC forecasts a 25 basis point hike and then a pause, while BMO expects 50 and then another 25 in early 2023. The Fed, by contrast, is expected to raise its federal funds rate to a minimum of 4.75%-5.00% early next year, with the risks around forecasts skewed toward a higher rate. "The latest BoC research on household vulnerability and flexible mortgage rates support the idea that the BoC terminal rate will end at least 50 basis points below the U.S. Federal Reserve," said Sebastien Lavoie, economist at Laurentian Bank.
OTTAWA, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Inflation in Canada remains too strong, and higher interest rates will be needed to cool the overheating economy, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in testimony at the House of Commons on Wednesday. "Inflation has come down in recent months, but we have yet to see a generalized decline in price pressures," Macklem said. The Bank of Canada raised rates by 50 basis points last month, lifting the policy rate to 3.75%, the highest since 4% seen in January 2008. Conservative lawmakers pressed Macklem to explain what the bank should have done differently to avoid the spike in inflation. Macklem reiterated that "with hindsight", the bank would have started tightening monetary policy sooner, adding the bank would review how monetary tools have worked during this period.
OTTAWA, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Canadian inflation remains high and broad based and more interest-rate increases will be needed to cool the overheating economy, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in testimony at the House of Commons on Wednesday. "Inflation has come down in recent months, but we have yet to see a generalized decline in price pressures," Macklem said. After a strong job gain report for October, Canada's annual inflation rate held steady that same month at 6.9%, still far above the central bank's 2% target, while core inflation measures were mixed, data showed last week. The Bank of Canada raised rates by 50 basis points last month to fight inflation, lifting the policy rate to 3.75%, the highest since 4% seen in January 2008. Money markets have fully discounted a further 25 basis points of tightening by the Bank of Canada at its next policy decision on Dec. 7 and see a 20% chance of a larger move of 50 basis points.
[1/2] Rapper Drake arrives on the red carpet for the film "The Carter Effect" at the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF), in Toronto, Canada, September 9, 2017. REUTERS/Mark Blinch/File PhotoNEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Drake and 21 Savage have stopped using Vogue trademarks to promote their new No. 1 album "Her Loss," and agreed to a preliminary injunction against resuming their campaign. Drake and 21 Savage did not concede liability or wrongdoing, and agreed to the injunction to avoid unnecessary costs, the filing said. The fake Vogue magazine featured Drake and 21 Savage on the cover, and their campaign included a suggestion that they had support from longtime Vogue editor-in-chief Anna Wintour.
OTTAWA, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Lower-income Canadians will be disproportionately affected by the slowdown in economic activity that is needed to rebalance supply and demand to ease inflationary pressures, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on Monday. "Slowing economic growth will disproportionately affect our most vulnerable households," he said in opening remarks at the Conference on Diversity, Equity and Inclusion in Economics, Finance and Central Banking. "But once we rebalance demand and supply, growth will pick up, our economy will grow solidly, and the benefits of low and predictable inflation will be restored," he added. Reporting by Steve Scherer and Julie Gordon in OttawaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
In October, the economy added a net 108,300 jobs, and wages growth climbed to 5.5%, even as the economy began to stall. Up until a few months ago, Kriska's 1,200 employees were too few to keep up with demand, Seymour said. Dennis Darby, who heads Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters business lobby, says there are still some 80,000 vacancies in manufacturing. Reuters GraphicsONE MILLION JOBSCanada has nearly a million open jobs and just over a million unemployed people. As global supply chain bottlenecks dissipate, labor demand will rebound in sectors that have a backlog of orders due to forced production cuts.
Morning Bid: Consumer inflation, crypto deflation
  + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Annual consumer price rises are expected to have eased back a touch last month to 8.0%, the lowest since February, with core inflation rates ticking lower to 6.5%. Falling used car prices, one aggravator of inflation indices over the past year, will be watched closely - as will the relative calm in oil prices. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said it's "entirely premature" to discuss any pivot away from the Fed's current policy course. Broader markets were steady to negative around the world, mostly in a holding pattern ahead of the inflation report. The United States and China also laid out markers this week ahead of an expected meeting between their presidents at the summit.
OTTAWA, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Canada's red-hot labor market can weather an economic slump without seeing a major surge in unemployment, the central bank said on Thursday, ahead of another expected interest rate increase. The bank forecasts growth will stall through the middle of next year. Tightening monetary policy to combat inflation would push up the jobless rate, he added. "But because the labor market is so hot and we have an exceptionally high number of vacant jobs, there is scope to cool the labor market without causing the kind of large surge in unemployment that we have typically experienced in recessions," he said. (Reporting by Steve Scherer, editing by David Ljunggren)((Reuters Ottawa bureau, +1 647 480 7921; david.ljunggren@tr.com))Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried told investors that the exchange faces a shortfall of up to $8 billion, per Bloomberg. FTX needs emergency funding or it will face bankruptcy, Bankman-Fried told investors, per Bloomberg. FTX faces a shortfall of up to $8 billion and was trying to raise $4 billion to stay solvent, Bloomberg reported. "I f---ed up," Bankman-Fried told investors, the media outlet reported. He repeatedly told investors Binance wasn't giving up on the deal, according to Bloomberg.
VC giant Sequoia Capital told investors it's marking down its investment in FTX to zero. FTX had asked Binance for help amid a liquidity crunch, Binance's CEO said on Tuesday. Based on our current understanding, we are marking our investment down to $0," Sequoia added in the letter. Sequoia Capital also sought to reassure investors that its exposure to FTX was "limited." Bitcoin and most other cryptocurrencies fell Wednesday following Binance's announcement that it was walking away from the acquisition of FTX.
Ron DeSantis speaks during the Turning Point USA Student Action Summit in Tampa, Fla. on July 22, 2022. One survey in the nation’s first primary state, New Hampshire, showed the two statistically tied in a primary, but another survey show Trump with a lead. Some Florida polls have also shown DeSantis leading Trump in a one-on-one primary. The poll also showed DeSantis might win a majority of Hispanic voters in Florida, which no Republican governor has done in 20 years. “In that event, Ron has a different set of issues he has to contend with if he wants to run against Trump.”
The CEO of Binance tweeted on Sunday the exchange would be liquidating all its FTT tokens due to "recent revelations." On Monday, FTX head Bankman-Fried tweeted "a competitor is trying to go after us with false rumors." Bankman-Fried announced on Tuesday his exchange FTX is to be acquired by Binance. The most recent brawl started on Sunday when Zhao tweeted Binance would be liquidating all its FTT tokens — a crypto token native to FTX — due to "recent revelations." The former announced the deal with Binance, and Zhao said Binance "signed a non-binding LOI, intending to fully acquire FTX.com and help cover the liquidity crunch."
REUTERS/Mark Blinch/File PhotoNEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - A U.S. judge on Wednesday has blocked the rappers Drake and 21 Savage from using fake copies of Vogue magazine to promote their new album. Conde Nast said Drake and 21 Savage had no permission to create the counterfeit magazine, which features them on the cover, to promote their album "Her Loss," or suggest Vogue's longtime editor-in-chief Anna Wintour supported them. Wednesday's order requires Drake, a Toronto native, and 21 Savage, from Atlanta, to stop distributing the fake magazine and cover, including on social media. Conde Nast said the defendants distributed the bogus Vogue issue in major metropolitan areas, with posters plastered on streets and buildings. The publisher, also known as Advance Magazine Publishers Inc, is seeking at least $4 million in damages.
Canadian dollar dips as investors weigh U.S. midterm vote
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Summary Canadian dollar dips 0.1% against the greenbackLoonie trades in a range of 1.3414 to 1.3466Price of U.S. oil falls 0.5%Canadian bond yields trade mixed across curveTORONTO, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, pulling back from a seven-week high, as oil prices fell and investors awaited the results of the closely watched U.S. midterm elections. Global equity markets (.WORLD) dipped and the U.S. dollar (.DXY) rose against a basket of major currencies as control of the U.S. Congress and Democratic President Joe Biden's agenda was unclear after the midterm vote. U.S. crude prices were down 0.5% at $88.45 a barrel, while the Canadian dollar weakened 0.1% to 1.3440 to the greenback, or 74.40 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3414 to 1.3466. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem is due on Thursday to give a speech on the evolution of the Canadian labour market. Canadian government bond yields were mixed across the curve, with the 10-year up half a basis point at 3.484%.
The loonie weakened 0.7% to 1.3520 per greenback, or 73.96 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3412 to 1.3541. Investors fretted about the financial health of major cryptocurrency exchange FTX, with some questioning whether a rescue deal from bigger rival Binance would materialize. Investors were shifting focus to U.S. inflation data on Thursday for clues on the path of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Its governor, Tiff Macklem, is due on Thursday to give a speech on the evolution of the Canadian labour market. Canadian government bond yields eased across a flatter curve, with the 10-year down 5.8 basis points at 3.421%.
Trump and DeSantis could end up in a competitive primary for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. Now, Trump says he might reveal unflattering information about DeSantis if that happens. "I think he would be making a mistake, I think the base would not like it — I don't think it would be good for the party." If he runs, he runs," Trump went on to say. Casey DeSantis, the Florida governor's wife, is "really running his campaign," Trump also said, according to a Wall Street Journal report.
Weird Al, known for taking famous pop and rock songs and sending them up by rewriting the lyrics. It began as a fake movie trailer that director Eric Appel made in 2013 as a sketch for Funny or Die. It featured Aaron Paul, Olivia Wilde, Gary Cole, Mary Steenburgen, Patton Oswalt and yes, Weird Al. Yankovic noted that the day after the trailer came out, “if you did a Google search for Weird Al, the first thing is, ‘Did Weird Al date Madonna?’ Everybody wanted to know. Weird Al Yankovic during a photo shoot in Los Angeles in 1984.
[1/2] A help wanted sign at a store along Queen Street West in Toronto Ontario, Canada June 10, 2022. The economy added a net 108,300 jobs last month, easily beating forecasts for 10,000 new jobs, while the jobless rate was unchanged at 5.2%. The blowout gain was entirely in full-time work, spread across both the goods and services sectors. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.75% last week and said while more increases would still be needed, it was nearing the end of its tightening campaign. The core-age unemployment rate stands at 4.2%, slightly above July's record low, but in a historically tight range last seen in the 1970s.
OTTAWA, Nov 1 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada has not ruled out another oversized interest rate hike to fight sky-high inflation, governor Tiff Macklem said on Tuesday, acknowledging Canadians feel "ripped off" by fast rising prices. The Bank of Canada surprised markets with a smaller-than-expected 50-basis point increase last week, lifting the policy rate to 3.75%. "It's been a long time since we had high inflation and we're rediscovering that it corrodes the social fabric," he added. And that's one of the big problems with inflation and it's an important reason why we got to get it back down." Earlier he reiterated the Bank of Canada would need still higher rates to fight stubborn inflation.
OTTAWA, Nov 1 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada needs to hike interest rates further to fight stubbornly high inflation, Governor Tiff Macklem said on Tuesday, reiterating that "we are getting closer, but we are not there yet." In opening remarks to the Senate's banking, trade and economy committee, he said the central bank was still far from the goal of low, stable and predictable inflation. Last week the Bank of Canada announced a smaller-than-expected interest rate hike and forecast the economy would stall over the next three quarters. Inflation in Canada has slowed to 6.9% from a peak of 8.1%, but core measures remain broad-based and persistent. The central bank revised its inflation outlook a touch lower and said it sees a return to the 2% target by end-2024.
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