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The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.1% on the day, although it is on track for a 4.4% decline in December. U.S. index futures , rose between 0.5%-0.6%, suggesting some of this strength may carry through to the Wall Street open later. On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) widened its trading band for 10-year government bond yields from 25 basis points (bps) either side of zero to 50 bps. CARRY TRADESBond markets were kept under pressure as the last big central bank anchoring its bond market starts to loosen its iron grip on yields. Japanese 10-year yields rose 7 bps to 0.48%, close to the BOJ's 0.5% ceiling.
The United States is also the leading liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, where growth is expected to soar in coming years. But the United States consumes 20 million barrels of crude a day, the most in the world, and its output has never exceeded 13 million bpd. Last month, U.S. government data showed net U.S. crude oil imports fell to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest since record keeping began in 2001. To become a net exporter of crude, the United States needs either to boost production or curtail consumption. The U.S. exported an average of 3.1 million bpd of fuels through September this year, EIA data showed, down from the 3.2 million bpd in the same period in 2019.
Mortgage rates have run up so far and so fast this year that many would-be homebuyers can no longer afford to buy a home. By fall, mortgage rates had more than doubled, eventually topping 7% in October. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. “We have to remember mortgage rates come down much slower than they go up,” said Cohn. “Volatility increases the level of mortgage rates, compared to Treasury rates, because of the prepayment option,” said Chester Spatt, professor of finance at Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business.
Oil dips as dollar firms while more rate hikes loom
  + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Jeslyn Lerh | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
SINGAPORE, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Oil prices dipped in Asian trade on Thursday as the dollar firmed, while the possibility of further interest rate hikes from global central banks also heightened demand concerns. A stronger dollar weakens oil demand as it makes the commodity more expensive for those holding other currencies. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose by more than 10 million barrels last week, the most since March 2021, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 4.5 million barrels in the week to 223.6 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles rose by 1.4 million barrels to 120.2 million barrels. "Commercial crude oil inventories rose as refineries trimmed their runs," said Citi analysts in a note.
The cooldown comes in a year where the travel industry enjoyed major tailwinds after a turbulent couple of years due to Covid. Pent-up travel demand even began to encroach on retail's momentum as pandemic shoppers turned into post-pandemic travelers. The travel industry has seen demand taper since a summer surge. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby, however, said that travel demand and revenue remains strong while business travel has "plateaued." Even as travel demand cools, revenues in the industry have remained stable due to higher prices.
Gold surging to $3,000 an ounce is part of Saxo Bank's list of 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2023. The Danish bank's annual list also foresees Japan setting a floor of 200 yen to temporarily halt a surging US dollar. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Saxo predicted 2023 as the year the market discovers that inflation will continue to burn hot for the foreseeable future, driving gold to $3,000 an ounce. "Under-owned gold rips higher on the sea-change reset in forward real interest rate implications of this new backdrop, it said.
"I think it probably goes back to 2018 in the World Cup. "As the tournament went on I felt like my performances maybe dipped in the latter stages. I was trying to make sure that, physically and mentally, I was in the best place for the knockout stages. I would love to be sitting here with two or three goals now, but I think the group stage has gone well. We know that they're African champions - very proud, great competitive spirit, a lot of belief in the team," Southgate added.
S&P 500 ends slightly lower after jobs report
  + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The Labor Department's jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 263,000, above expectations of 200,000 and wage growth accelerated even as recession concerns increase. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 34.87 points, or 0.1%, to 34,429.88, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 4.87 points, or 0.12%, to 4,071.7 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 20.95 points, or 0.18%, to 11,461.50. The major averages notched a second straight week of gains, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.13%, the Dow gaining 0.24% and the Nasdaq rising 2.1%. The S&P 500 growth index (.IGX) declined 0.29% while technology shares (.SPLRCT) were among the worst performing among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors with a fall of 0.55%. The S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 92 new lows.
The Dow reversed higher as the Fed is still largely expected to slow its pace of rate hikes. But the hot jobs data could push the Fed to tack on more rate hikes in early 2023, some analysts say. JPMorgan Asset Management chief strategist David Kelly said the jobs report was likely distorted, and there's still plenty of room for the Fed to taper rate hikes and pause in 2023. Principal Asset Management chief strategist Seema Shah said the jobs report could push the Fed to raise rates above 5%. "This report doesn't mean the risks of the Fed raising rates to 6% are back on the table.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJobs market still moderating and Fed will have an excuse to taper rate hikes, says JPM's KellyDavid Kelly, JP Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist, and Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones senior investment strategist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if Friday's jobs data alters Kelly's soft landing picture, what next year holds for equity markets and more.
The snow and rain should begin to taper off Friday for most areas before the next storm system arrives late Saturday into early Sunday. While nearly 3 feet of snow could fall in California, 1 to 2 feet of widespread snow is expected across the Rockies in places like Montana, Utah and the mountains in Colorado. This would be a significant and fairly rare snow for Seattle, a city that averages as much snow a year (3.8 inches) as Little Rock, Arkansas. Salt Lake City will also see a few inches in the city proper up where 2 to 5 inches is forecast. Back-to-back winter storms will bring periods of very difficult to impossible travel over Sierra passes through Sunday.
Disney's board reached out to Bob Iger on Friday, without any other serious candidates in mind to replace Bob Chapek as CEO, CNBC's David Faber reported Monday, citing sources. The board's outreach to Iger and discussion to replace Chapek came after surging concerns crested following Disney's most recent quarterly earnings report, according to Faber's sources. While some internal candidates were identified that might be able to take the job over time, the board didn't want to put someone new in that position given all various pressures on the company, Faber reported. On Sunday, Disney said it would replace Chapek with Iger as chief executive, effective immediately. Disney reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings earlier this month, disappointing on profit and certain key revenue segments.
CNN —Teens are entering the chat around social media. The youths were asked about their thoughts, feelings and use of social media. One theme of the survey’s results: Teens see their experience on social media as more positive than adults imagine it to be. And if encouraged the right way, Icard has seen social media as a good way to showcase talents and humor. And 60% of all teens report feeling little to no control over the data social media companies collect from them.
JPMorgan raised its outlook for emerging market hard-currency debt on Monday to "marketweight" from "underweight", saying the latest U.S. inflation data cemented a shift to the next phase in the cycle. In its 2023 outlook Morgan Stanley predicted emerging market hard-currency bonds could return more than 14% next year. Core CPI seems to be finally in," Citi Research's head of emerging market strategy Dirk Willer said in the bank's weekly strategy note. However, it might not be quite time for investors to dive into emerging market sovereign credit. JPMorgan's emerging market strategist Jonny Goulden said Federal Reserve hiking cycles were usually followed by a "wait" period before the onset of a U.S. recession, or possibly even an emerging markets financial crisis.
"As shipping lines reduce their vessel calls in the form of blank sailings, this reduces the capacity for outbound volumes. Sea-Intelligence wrote in its recent blank sailings report that it has detected some unannounced cancellations for the calendar-year period of weeks 42-52 in the past two weeks. "Blank sailings have been ramped up drastically on the Transpacific, but not so much on Asia-Europe," said Alan Murphy, CEO at Sea-Intelligence. On Asia-North Europe routes, Sea-Intelligence is only seeing an additional six blank sailings, and on Asia-Mediterranean routes an increase of four blank sailings. The weekly average of vessels waiting this week is 14, waiting for an average of 6.3 days.
Meta Platforms — The stock jumped 8% after the company announced it will lay off more than 11,000 employees. News Corp — Shares slid 5% after the company reported a slight miss on its fiscal first quarter earnings, compared to FactSet estimates. AMC Entertainment — Shares dropped 9.8% after the company reported another quarterly loss as operational costs increased. SeaWorld Entertainment — The stock fell 8% after the company reported weaker-than-expected earnings or $1.99 per share on revenue or $565 million. Roblox — Shares tumbled more than 15% after the company reported a bigger loss than expected for the third quarter.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDemand remains 'strong and inelastic' for our business, says Equinix CEOCharles Meyers, Equinix CEO, joins 'TechCheck' to discuss Meyers optimism regarding pricing power, why customer demand won't taper with higher prices and if Equinix is more cyclical than initially imagined.
CNN —Houston officials vowed to deliver justice in the killing of rapper Takeoff, with the chief of police calling the 28-year-old Atlantan a “peaceful” man and urging any witnesses to the shooting to come forward. There were roughly 40 people at the event, many of whom left “possibly out of fear,” Houston Police Chief Troy Finner said. “This great city, with our great citizens, with our police department – we will find who’s responsible for it. Finner was clear, however, that investigators do not believe Takeoff was “involved in anything criminal at the time,” he said. Rap star was on an upward trajectoryThe news of Takeoff’s death was a blow to the hip-hop community, still reeling from the fatal shooting of rapper PnB Rock in September.
Most investors expect Federal Reserve officials to lift the benchmark federal-funds rate by 0.75 percentage point at the central bank’s November meeting. Traders are betting higher interest rates will linger for the foreseeable future. Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next decision on Wednesday, derivatives markets show the federal-funds rate sitting at around 3.5% for the long run. That is a full percentage point higher than the central bank’s own latest forecast. Those wagers have crept higher throughout most of the year, and are now nearing levels not seen since the 2013 bond-market rout known as the “Taper Tantrum.”
The stock's Monday volume, which stood at over 10 million shares after the close, far exceeded the 506,000 shares investors have shorted, he said. "There is no way today’s price move is due to a short squeeze, it is virtually all long buying pressure," Dusaniwsky said. Many meme stocks have been pounded this year as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy, sapping investors’ appetite for risk. Shares of GameStop Corp (GME.N), which put meme stocks into the spotlight with its epic rally in 2021, are down 24% for the year to date while AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (AMC.N) has fallen 60%. "If that’s the case that would further tamp down Treasury yields and create a tailwind for equities."
Interest rates are too high for his liking. Mortgage rates are more than double what they were a year ago. Yin is very price conscious and does a detailed analysis whenever he's evaluating a rental property. With the interest rates where they are now, "I can still make money," he explained, "but my margin of error is a lot thinner. The rates on the properties Yin has financed currently range between 3.6% and 4.1%, according to documents viewed by Insider.
"It's a catch-up, or catch-down, kind of effect," said Galvin Chia, an emerging markets strategist at NatWest Markets. "There are some exceptional factors, but none of these would provide that kind of panacea for underlying risks that remain." Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves fell by $1.4 billion last month to $130.8 billion, due to debt payments and Bank Indonesia's efforts to stabilise the rupiah. read moreData for September also showed a surge in Indonesia's inflation to a seven-year high, reflecting a jump in fuel prices. "If you look at consumption, look at credit growth, everything is domestic, unlike the other export markets in Asia.
watch nowAsia's biggest economic challenges will be rising debt and capital flight as interest rates continue to rise, the International Monetary Fund has warned. The warnings come as the IMF trimmed its global growth predictions in its latest economic outlook this week and warned the new year would feel like a recession for many parts of the world. "Debt has gone up in Asia," IMF Deputy Director of Asia and Pacific Department Anne-Marie Gulde told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Wednesday. "First, private sector debt has gone up since the global financial crisis but afterwards since Covid, public sector debt has gone up. The crisis in the U.K stemmed from rising yields and plunging bond prices, which sparked collateral calls for pension funds to cover their LDI-related derivatives.
Punishingly strong dollar is still a fair trade
  + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Everybody wants the dollar; everybody hates the dollar. That makes dollar assets relatively more attractive and puts pressure on other central banks to raise rates too. The strong dollar kicks other countries in the shins, with varying degrees of pain. Follow @johnsfoley on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSThe International Monetary Fund and World Bank are holding their annual meetings in Washington from Oct. 10 to Oct. 16. The dollar is up 21% since October 2020, according to the U.S. Dollar Currency Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies.
Capital outflows from emerging markets ex-China which only ended in August were akin to those during the 2013 taper tantrum, the IIF said in September. "Emerging market fortunes continue to rest quite heavily on what the Fed does," said Manik Narain, head of emerging markets strategy at UBS. Major emerging market central banks had delivered nearly 6,000 basis points in rate increases in 2022 until end-August in their inflation fight, Reuters calculations show. Developing central banks find themselves in different stages of the tightening cycle, said Claudia Calich, head of emerging market debt at M&G Investments. However, there is little let-up on the cards for smaller, riskier emerging markets.
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