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☆ Halfway through 2023 Wall Street still can't agree on the earnings outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A strange year: Halfway through, there is a wide difference of opinion on earnings Strategists analyze the macroeconomy to come up with an estimate for corporate earnings. They analyze individual company performance to come up with earnings estimates, which are then aggregated into an overall estimate by agencies like FactSet or Refinitiv. The S & P 500 reported $218 in earnings in 2022, according to Refinitiv. This highlights the difference between analysts and strategists: Analysts have models for earnings of individual companies, not the macroeconomy as strategists do. However, in this case, their reticence to slash earnings estimates in expectation of an imminent recession or a banking crisis has proved to be correct.

Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, Wilson, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Mike Wilson's, John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer, David Kostin, Brian Belski, Jonathan Golub, Lori Calvasina, Savita Subramanian, Chris Harvey, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Hatzius Organizations: Here's, BMO, Credit, RBC, Wells, Bloomberg, Bank Locations: U.S

☆ Stocks are up big this year. But top Wall Street strategists are warning that trouble is brewing under the surface of the market — threatening to sink it.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Six months into 2023, the S&P 500 is having an impressive year, returning more than 11% so far since January. Only 44% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages, according to LPL Financial. Technology and consumer are the only sectors up on the year, and even they are exhibiting narrow breadth," he said. Bank of AmericaOf course, market breadth could improve if the fundamental economic outlook improves along with investor sentiment. If the labor market stays sturdy, a stock market rally could become more sustainable.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Mike Wilson, Here's David Rosenberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Marcelli, Morgan Stanley, Adam Turnquist, Jeffrey Buchbinder, LPL, Savita Subramanian Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, Bank of America, Rosenberg Research, North, UBS, NYSE, Technology, of America's Locations: North American, China

☆ The odds of a significant recession are ‘going down’ right now, says JPMorgan’s David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe odds of a significant recession are ‘going down’ right now, says JPMorgan’s David KellyDavid Kelly, JP Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist, and Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America Securities, join ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss what the latest strong job reports suggest, the odds of a recession, and more.

Persons: JPMorgan’s David Kelly David Kelly, Savita Subramanian, ‘ Squawk Organizations: Morgan Asset Management, Bank of America Securities

☆ Next questions for markets center on its skinny rally and the chance of a Fed derailment
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"The underlying numbers in the report today show that the Fed can probably feel comfortable with maybe one more rate hike, and then pausing." Or, at least those concerns were true until Friday's explosive rally, when more than six New York Stock Exchange issues rose for every one that fell, and all 11 sectors in the S & P 500 gained. Friday's advance carried the S & P 500 to its highest since Aug. 18, 2022, when the benchmark closed at 4,283.74. Another favorable straw in the wind may simply be the fact that the 11.2% rally in the S & P 500, just since the mid-March lows accompanying the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, is so hated and mistrusted. Week-ahead calendar Monday 9:45 a.m.: S & P Global Services PMI (May) 10 a.m.: Durable goods and factory orders (April) 10 a.m.: ISM services PMI (May) Tuesday Earnings: J.M.

Persons: Megan Horneman, Canaccord Genuity, JC O'Hara, Roth MKM, Ross Mayfield, Baird, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Brown, Forman, — CNBC's Alexander Harring, Fred Imbert, Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Verdence Capital Advisors, Nvidia, New York Stock Exchange, Silicon Valley Bank, Bank of America, P Global Services PMI, PMI, Growers, Ciena, GameStop Locations: Broad, 2H23, Silicon

☆ Firms are bringing production back home because of the Ukraine war, China's slowdown — and TikTok
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Lucy Handley | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Earnings calls discuss 'reshoring'A number of banks noted mentions of the domestic manufacturing trend in U.S. earnings calls for the most recent quarter. And we have never … got the target right," McRaith told an audience at a supply chain conference organized by software company o9 Solutions in April. Bill McRaith Former chief supply chain officer, PVHMcRaith, a former chief supply chain officer at Tommy Hilfiger-owner PVH , said the apparel industry both over-orders and under-orders stock by about 20% to 25%. If we build an economy based on electrification and batteries, it's going to be really important to control our own supply chain. "If we build an economy based on electrification and batteries, it's going to be really important to control our own supply chain," he told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" in April.

Persons: Luke Sharrett, Savita Subramanian, Ryan Grabinski, they're, Bill McRaith, McRaith, PVH, Tommy Hilfiger, we've, Shein, Jade Gao, it's, Keith Phillips, Joe Biden, CNBC's, Elon Musk, Phillips Organizations: European Union, Bloomberg, Getty, Bank of America, UBS, Securities, o9 Solutions, CNBC, AFP, U.S ., Reshoring, EV, U.S, EVs Locations: China, Ukraine, U.S, Europe, Brazil, Guangzhou, U.S . U.S, Corpus Christi , Texas, Tennessee, United States

☆ Here's how Bank of America is telling traders to invest up and down the spectrum from large cap to small to book maximum profits while playing smart defense
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Its equity strategists say that value criteria tend to work best in small- and mid-cap stocks. They added that small caps are an especially good pathway to diversification right now. But they noted that investors can use small caps to diversify their portfolios while also being rewarded for better stock picking. "High Projected Long-Term Growth has not been a strong stock selection factor over the long-term," they wrote. "The best way to pick stocks within small caps over the long-term has been buying stocks with high free cash flow to enterprise value" and other metrics based on free cash flow yields.

Persons: Subramanian, it's, Jill Carey Hall, Nicolas Woods, Woods, Russell, Russell MidCap Organizations: of America, Bank of America, US Equity, Materials, Nasdaq, Bank of

☆ Stock futures fall slightly as Wall Street focuses on tense debt ceiling negotiations
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-21 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures retreated slightly on Sunday evening as traders monitored the negotiations over the U.S. debt ceiling. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down 63 points, or about 0.19%. S&P 500 futures dipped about 0.21%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also shed 0.14%. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.04%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.65%. On cyclically adjusted earnings, valuations argue for price returns of 5% per year for the S&P 500 over the next decade," Subramanian said in a note to clients.

☆ Bank of America hikes year-end target for S&P 500, citing focus by companies on efficiency and A.I.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-21 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

In a note to clients on Sunday, Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian hiked her year-end price target for the S & P 500 to 4,300 from 4,000. The S & P 500 is already up more than 9% year-to-date. .SPX YTD line The S & P 500 has gained more than 9% in 2023. The new target puts Bank of America above the average in the CNBC Market Strategist Survey . The highest target among major Wall Street firms is still 4,575 from CFRA's Sam Stovall.

☆ Shun mega-cap tech stocks as a 'big asset bubble' is building in growth shares, Bank of America's top strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors should avoid piling into mega-cap tech stocks, according to BofA's Savita Subramanian. "You don't want to buy mega-cap tech. Her views come despite a blistering rally in Big Tech stocks this year amid hype over artificial intelligence. Tech stocks have kicked off 2023 with a bang, with Big Tech shares including Meta and Amazon stock soaring in price. While Subramanian noted that AI is a bullish pocket of the tech industry, she suggested it's not a convincing enough driver for mega-cap tech stocks.

☆ You don't want to buy mega-cap tech stocks, says BofA’s Savita Subramanian
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYou don't want to buy mega-cap tech stocks, says BofA’s Savita SubramanianSavita Subramanian, BofA Securities head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, and where the market could be headed for the rest of the year and beyond.

☆ BANK OF AMERICA: Buy these 16 healthcare stocks to capture their collective 50% upside ahead of a sector rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America says healthcare stocks are usually strong performers in economic downturns. Their solid earnings and low valuations should help healthcare stocks going forward. The firm named 16 favorite stocks in the sector, including 3 that it thinks could double in price. Healthcare stocks aren't having a great year, but Bank of America says it sees signs that the tide is going to turn. Bank of America says the following 16 names are the best defensive and high-upside small- and mid-cap stocks in healthcare.

☆ Bank of America: Hedge funds are most bullish on these 20 stocks right now while they brace for an 'Armageddon'-style recession similar to 2008
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America noted that hedge funds' bond weighting relative to stocks is at an all-time high. Here are 20 stocks that hedge funds are most optimistic about right now. "Our economists expect an economic recession of half the magnitude of a typical recession," Subramanian wrote in the late April note. Additionally, hedge funds' allocation to bonds relative to stocks is at a record high, according to Bank of America. 20 stocks that hedge funds love mostEven though hedge funds have soured on stocks, they still believe there are companies that will outperform in this challenging economic environment.

By comparison, less than 5% of companies mentioned AI in analyst calls held during the first quarter of 2016. Big Tech mentions jump AI has been a growing theme in Big Tech as companies try to capitalize on the wave following 2022's selloff. In calls from Big Tech companies alone, AI was mentioned 265 times. Executives at real estate company UDR said its AI chat has a 10% higher closing rate than normal call centers. Interpublic Group of Companies CEO Philippe Krakowsky noted the advertising company brought on a chief AI officer two years ago.

☆ Stock market bulls hard to find amid high rates and banking fallout, says BofA's Subramanian
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStock market bulls hard to find amid high rates and banking fallout, says BofA's SubramanianSavita Subramanian, BofA Securities, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Subramanian's thoughts on the earnings season thus far, if there will still be a 'reckoning' in corporate earnings and more.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Bank of America's Savita Subramanian
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Bank of America's Savita SubramanianSavita Subramanian, BofA Securities, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Subramanian's thoughts on the earnings season thus far, if there will still be a 'reckoning' in corporate earnings and more.

☆ A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes says a 60% decline in the S&P 500 is likely as high valuations and weak investor sentiment create a 'trap door' scenario
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The chart below shows how far the S&P 500 would have to fall to provide either a 10% return or 2% premium over Treasury bonds. He sees the S&P 500 finishing 2023 at around 3,150, he told YouTube channel Wealthion. Predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. Predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up 0.8% over the past year.

☆ 'The equity market is poised to struggle in the weeks and months ahead': Comerica Bank's CIO says the S&P 500 is primed for a 15% drop as weak earnings, high valuations, and a hawkish Fed all work aga
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 8%. Plus, when the Consumer Price Index is between 4-6% like it is now, it usually dictates that the S&P 500 trades at a lower multiple than it is. "For example, at the current S&P 500 P/E of 19, the earnings yield for stocks is 1 divided by 19, or ~5.2%. While he sees 15% downside in the months ahead, he also believes the S&P 500 will return to current levels by the end of 2023. Morgan StanleyWilson has also repeatedly warned of an earnings recession ahead, and recently said that the pullback in lending from banks strengthens his case.

☆ Premarket stocks: The earnings recession is here. There could be worse to come
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN —Earnings reports are coming thick and fast, showing how companies fared in the first few months of the year. But even as earnings are forecast to slump to their lowest level in three years, investors fear the worst is yet to come. This left significant gaps in the forensic search for Nazi-linked records, the Senate Committee stated. AlixPartners, according to the Senate committee, has indicated it will conduct a “supplementary review” of Credit Suisse’s connections to ratlines amongst other allegations. Credit Suisse is Switzerland’s second-largest bank by assets and has spent the past few years plagued by scandals and large losses.

☆ Buy these 23 small- and mid-cap stocks that will surprisingly beat Wall Street's first-quarter earnings expectations, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Below are 23 stocks that beat expectations in the last quarter and are expected to do it again. In other words, as the economy moves deeper into a downturn, forget about expectations and go for high-quality, cash-generating, shorter-duration stocks, says the bank. Stocks that have historically performed better during this stage are those that are large, high quality, and low risk, according to Subramanian's note. As the first-quarter earnings season kicks into gear, below are 23 small- and mid-cap stocks that have "buy" ratings from Bank of America's analysts. These stocks have beaten both their earnings-per-share and sales estimates during the last quarter and are expected to beat them this quarter as well.

She added that 73% of companies that reported last week surpassed sales expectations, while 67% beat on both measures. Last quarter's week one results showed just 46% of companies beat on both EPS and sales, while the historical average sits at just 48%. "Fueled by bank beats, 1Q EPS is tracking a 30bp surprise," the equity and quant strategist said. Overall, consensus expectations are calling for a more than 7% decline in first-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 year over year, she noted. Big bank earnings may have offered some relief, but the market isn't out of the woods just yet as credit impacts emerge in areas like industrials.

☆ Asia stocks on guard for earnings, China economy surprises
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

EYES ON EARNINGS OUTLOOKS&P 500 futures inched up 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures were flat as investors awaited a slew of earnings reports led by Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N). Analysts expect Q1 S&P 500 earnings to fall 5.2% from the year-earlier period, though BofA analyst Savita Subramanian is more concerned about the outlook for 2023. "Our 2023 EPS estimate for the S&P 500 remains $200, still 9% below consensus estimates." In bond markets, the shift in Fed expectations pushed U.S. two-year yields up to 4.12%, having risen 12 basis points last week. Futures have 37 basis points of ECB tightening priced for the May meeting and 82 basis points by October.

☆ Asia stocks brace for updates on earnings, China economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

☆ Asia stocks on edge for earnings, China data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

EYES ON EARNINGS OUTLOOKS&P 500 futures edged up 0.2%, while Nasdaq futures were flat as investors awaited a slew of earnings reports led by Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N). Analysts expect Q1 S&P 500 earnings to fall 5.2% from the year-ago period, though BofA analyst Savita Subramanian is more concerned about the outlook for 2023. "Our 2023 EPS estimate for the S&P 500 remains $200, still 9% below consensus estimates." In bond markets, the shift in Fed expectations pushed U.S. two-year yields up to 4.12%, having risen 12 basis points last week. Futures have 37 basis points of ECB tightening priced for the May meeting and 82 basis points by December.

☆ Bank of America: Buy these 10 stocks before they report earnings, then beat expectations and rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America says that the start of earnings season will be a critical stock-picking period. Strategist Savita Subramanian says a recession is coming, and earnings projections will get slashed. Subramanian identified companies that BofA expects to beat expectations again this quarter. "With the SVB collapse in March, data started to notably slow," Subramanian wrote. She also wrote that right now, Wall Street earnings projections for 2023 and 2024 look unrealistic if a recession is on the way.

☆ Expect another 10% downside to full-year earning estimates, says BofA's Subramanian
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect another 10% downside to full-year earning estimates, says BofA's SubramanianSavita Subramanian, BofA Securities head of U.S. equity and ESG strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss what the strategist is looking for in earnings season, how investors can think about which theme to act on and more.

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