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Inflation is expected to slow because of these trends
  + stars: | 2023-09-17 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Washington, DC CNN —US inflation has slowed steadily from its four-decade peak last June, and it’s expected to cool further thanks to easing car prices and rents. Despite the expected inflation drop, she said investors anticipate the Fed will keep interest rates steady and not cut them anytime soon. “It may take a little bit longer than expected for inflation to come down to 2%, and inflation being in a 2-3% range next year is reasonable,” she said. Tuesday: Canada’s statistics agency releases August inflation data. The UK’s Office for National Statistics releases August inflation data.
Persons: we’re, ” José Torres, , , Sarah House, Saira Malik, Michelle Toh, ” Read, General Mills, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Interactive Brokers, CNN, , , United Auto Workers, CPI, San, San Francisco Fed, National Association of Home Builders, US Commerce Department, Japan’s Ministry of Finance, FedEx, General, National Statistics, Federal Reserve, Darden Restaurants, The Bank of England, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, The Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Global Locations: Washington, Wells Fargo, San Francisco, China, Michelle Toh ., Japan’s
Consumer sentiment dipped slightly in September, indicating Americans are tentative about the direction of the economy, according to the latest survey-based index from the University of Michigan. The overall consumer sentiment index, released on Friday, retreated to 67.7 from 69.5 in August, while the current conditions assessment dropped to 69.8 from 75.7 and the forward-looking expectations index increased to 66.3 from 65.5. “Sentiment this month was characterized by divergent movements across index components and across demographic groups with little net change from last month. There was improvement in how consumers see inflation going forward. That means workers are keeping just ahead of inflation, although prices for necessities such as groceries and gasoline have increased.
Persons: , Joanne Hsu, , ” Hsu, ” Bernard Baumohl, Baumohl, “ They’re, Joe Biden, – Ford, Peter Berezin Organizations: University of Michigan, Consumers, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Economic Outlook, Supreme, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Senate, Fed, BCA Research, Global Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S
By raising interest rates, the Fed "wants us to buy fewer cars. There are signs that a drop in savings could be making it harder for Americans' to keep up with paying off debt. Long-term interest rates rising for non-economic reasonsLong-term interest rates are on the rise, even though economic data on the whole is improving. Higher-interest payments for the US governmentSløk also noted higher interest payments for the US government as another downside risk to the outlook. Projections published by the Congressional Budget Office show increasing estimates for the upcoming decades for federal interest payments as a share of GDP.
Persons: Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Paul Krugman, Persis Yu, Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius, it's, , you've, Andy Kiersz, That's, Brent Organizations: Service, Apollo Global Management, NYU Stern School of Business, Federal Reserve, San, San Francisco Fed, Student, Protection, CNBC, New York Fed, Banking, West Texas, Labor Statistics, US, Fitch, Congressional Locations: Wall, Silicon, San Francisco, China, Japan, Europe, Germany
Consumer spending held up the US economy even as many worried about the prospect of a recession. Even as interest rates skyrocketed over the past 18 months, strong consumer spending kept the US economy moving. Higher rates start to biteLet's start with interest rates. Credit-card debt, in contrast, tends to move up and down with interest rates. That COVID cash stockpile helped support the economy despite rising interest rates and historically high inflation.
Persons: Barbie, Taylor Swift, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Morgan Stanley, Janet Yellen, Yellen, John David Rainey, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, We've, Piper, Nancy Lazar, Lazar Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Credit, Federal Reserve Bank of New, CNBC, San Francisco Fed, Walmart, Fox News Digital Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Ukraine
A Meta logo is seen on a beach during the Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity in Cannes, France, June 19, 2023. The authors said in the OpenAI case that works like books and plays are particularly valuable for AI language training as the "best examples of high-quality, long form writing." Meta and OpenAI were also sued for copyright infringement in July by a separate group of authors that includes comedian Sarah Silverman, part of a growing list of copyright cases against AI companies. Meta published a list of datasets used to train its first version of the Llama model, which it released in February. The company did not disclose training data for its latest version, Llama 2.
Persons: Eric Gaillard, Michael Chabon, Chabon, Tony, David Henry Hwang, Matthew Klam, Rachel Louise Snyder, Ayelet Waldman, Meta, Sarah Silverman, Blake Brittain, Katie Paul, David Bario, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Cannes Lions International, Creativity, REUTERS, Meta, Google, Thomson Locations: Cannes, France, San Francisco federal, Washington, New York
US furniture retailers like RH and Williams-Sonoma are struggling to sell products in a tight housing market. The unaffordable housing market is stretching wallets and making new furniture less of a priority for buyers. A slew of furniture brands have reported weaker earnings in the most recent quarter. Furniture retailers have reported weaker sales as Americans, who are struggling to break into the housing market, aren't buying the usual amount of couches, tables, and home goods. "A housing shortage and the over 20-year high on fixed mortgage rates has slowed down housing activity.
Persons: RH, Hooker, Jeremy Hoff Organizations: Williams, Service, Bloomberg, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank Locations: Sonoma, Wall, Silicon, Williams, Elm, Virginia
Morning Bid: Markets find feet after Apple topples
  + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
People walk near an Apple logo outside its store in Shanghai, China September 8, 2023. The stock appeared to stabilize in out-of-hours trade on Friday and Morgan Stanley analysts claimed China's iPhone bans would at most hit Apple revenues by about 4%. The upshot was the rates market calmed a bit - with the odds on another Fed hike in the cycle falling back below 50% despite the red hot jobless claims readout. That helped Treasury yields <US10YT+RR> fall back too, aided by the stock market wobble and an oil price coming off the boil. The stock exchange there halted trading in both securities and derivatives markets due to a black rainstorm warning.
Persons: Aly, Mike Dolan, Apple sideswipe, Morgan Stanley, We've, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee, Lorie Logan, Michael Barr, Mary Daly, Andrew Cawthorne Organizations: Apple, REUTERS, Federal, Huawei, New, Fed, Chicago Fed, Dallas Fed, San Francisco Fed, Kroger Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, U.S, India, Asia, Hong Kong, United States, New Delhi
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. The Consumer Price Index reading for August is due on Sept. 13, while the Federal Reserve's policy decision is scheduled for Sept. 20. New York Fed President John Williams kept his options open over future interest rate policy and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said while it "could be appropriate" to skip a rate hike in the upcoming meeting, more policy tightening might be needed. DocuSign (DOCU.O) added 3.1% as the e-Signature product provider beat second-quarter results estimates and raised its annual revenue forecast. GameStop (GME.N) fell 2.3% on a report that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was investigating the videogame retailer's chairman, Ryan Cohen.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mark Haefele, Morgan Stanley, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Mary Daly, Ryan Cohen, Shristi Achar, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mizuho, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, UBS Global Wealth Management, Traders, FedWatch, Apple, Wall, Dow e, . New York Fed, Dallas Fed, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, GameStop, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Beijing, China, Bengaluru
"Most Districts reported price growth slowed overall," the Fed said in its latest "Beige Book" summary of surveys and interviews conducted across its 12 districts through Aug. 28. It added that "nearly all districts indicated businesses renewed their previously unfulfilled expectations that wage growth will slow broadly in the near term." Data since the last Fed rate hike six weeks ago has tended to support that view, with the economy adding an average of 150,000 jobs per month over the last three months, down sharply from the prior three months. Earlier on Wednesday, Boston Fed President Susan Collins also said the central bank has the space to be patient, while acknowledging that inflation pressures, though easing, still remain too high. Home building was picking up, the Fed said, but building affordable properties is being strained by high financing costs and rising insurance premiums.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Susan Collins, Collins, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Boston, New, New York Fed, San Francisco Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York
Savings built up by American households during the pandemic are all but gone, the San Francisco Fed says. In 2021, Americans had amassed a record $2.1 trillion in excess savings, spurred by government stimulus checks and a drop in in-person spending. AdvertisementAdvertisement"Our updated estimates suggest that households held less than $190 billion of aggregate excess savings by June. There is considerable uncertainty in the outlook, but we estimate that these excess savings are likely to be depleted during the third quarter of 2023," San Francisco Fed analysts said in a recent blog. As of July 2023, the US personal savings rate stood at 3.5% – below pre-pandemic averages.
Persons: San Francisco Fed, , Marko Kolanovic Organizations: San Francisco, Service, San Francisco Fed, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon
Fed Chair Jerome Powell was almost brusque in his re-statement of the central bank's anti-inflation commitment at the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Tracking that rather than more-skittish policy rate futures would have proved a better guide to how subsequent months panned out and to the summer doldrums in bonds and stocks. And yet the September meeting could still be the 'big reveal' as it sees publication of the Fed's updated 'dot plot' that will likely show just where they then see the cycle crest. San Francisco Fed chart on dispersion of Fed rate projections by horizonSan Francisco Fed index of Fed uncertaintyACCIDENT OR DESIGN? As to whether the Fed is guiding everyone to safe and happy place, there continues to be sceptics about the 'soft landing'.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, that's, it's, Andrew Foerster, Zinnia Martinez, Bruce Kasman, Joseph Lupton Organizations: Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Atlanta, San Francisco Fed, San, Fed, San Francisco, JPMorgan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, synch, San Francisco Fed
New York CNN —Azher Abbasi, head of supervision at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco — and a key official with direct oversight over failed Silicon Valley Bank — will retire at the end of October, the regional reserve bank announced this week. Abbasi and Mary Daly, president of the San Francisco Fed, came under scrutiny after a post-mortem report undertaken by the Federal Reserve found problems with how SVB was supervised. The San Francisco Fed declined to share additional details with CNN about Abbasi’s departure. Outside of the report, there have been concerns about potential conflicts of interest regarding Greg Becker, the former CEO of SVB, serving as a director on the San Francisco Fed board, potentially having a say over how SVB was supervised. Willardson previously worked at the Minneapolis Fed in a variety of positions from 1990 to 2022, including as senior vice president for supervision, regulation and credit for eight years.
Persons: New York CNN — Azher Abbasi, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco —, Abbasi, Mary Daly, SVB, San Francisco Fed, Greg Becker, Niel Willardson, Willardson Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of San, San Francisco, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Deposit Insurance Corporation Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco Fed, midsized
San Francisco Fed's chief of supervision to retire
  + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
A pedestrian walks near the branch of Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, in Salt Lake City, Utah, U.S., April 7, 2023. REUTERS/Ann Saphir Acquire Licensing RightsAug 28 (Reuters) - Azher Abbasi, head of supervision at the San Francisco Federal Reserve, will retire at the end of October, the bank's spokesperson said on Monday. Abbasi will be succeeded by Niel Willardson, who will join the San Francisco Fed as interim executive vice president of supervision and credit, the spokesperson said via email. Abbasi joined the San Francisco Fed in 2015. Reporting by Evelyn Nikhila S in Bengaluru Editing by Matthew LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Ann Saphir, Azher Abbasi, Abbasi, Niel Willardson, Willardson, Evelyn Nikhila, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of San, REUTERS, San Francisco Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Salt Lake City , Utah, U.S, Bengaluru
In this photo illustration, the new Twitter logo rebranded as X (X Corp.) is seen on a smartphone and Elon Musk Twitter account with the new X logo on a pc screen. X, the social network formerly known as Twitter, is facing 2,200 arbitration cases that ex-employees filed after Elon Musk took over the company, slashed headcount, and made other sweeping changes there. The filing fees alone for that volume of cases could amount to $3.5 million. The case is Chris Woodfield v. Twitter, X Corp. and Elon Musk (No. Since JAMS decided that this basic fee applies across the board to X's 2,200 arbitration cases, that would amount to around $3.5 million, with other fees possibly to follow.
Persons: Elon Musk, Chris Woodfield, Woodfield Organizations: X Corp, Elon, Twitter, CNBC, Musk's X Corp, Northern District of Locations: Delaware, Seattle, San Francisco federal, Northern District, Northern District of California
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSan Francisco Fed's bank supervision chief to leave after bank failuresCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' with breaking news on the departure of the San Francisco Fed's Azher Abbasi.
Persons: Steve Liesman, San Francisco Fed's Azher Abbasi Organizations: San Locations: San Francisco
Investors and economists are bullish that consumer spending, the US economy’s main engine, won’t deteriorate too much, which should help stocks avoid a massive sell-off this year. The US Labor Department releases July figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Commerce Department releases July data on household spending, income and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended Aug. 26. Friday: The US Labor Department releases August figures on the labor market, including monthly payroll gains, wage growth, and the unemployment rate.
Persons: “ We’re, we’ve, ” Matthew Palazzolo, we’re, We’re, ” Palazzolo, pare, It’s, Biden, Jerome Powell, Sinead Colton Grant, Anna Cooban Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal Reserve, US, Bernstein Private Wealth Management, CNN, Nvidia, Research, Fed, Kansas City, San Francisco Fed, Mellon, International Monetary Fund, Global, US Labor Department, Board, US Commerce Department, National Association of Realtors, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, P Global, Institute for Supply Management Locations: Washington, Wells Fargo, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, American, Germany, Europe, Berlin
A former tech exec was charged with embezzling $2.7 million from his employer. Aubrey Jackson Shelton II was accused of using the company's payroll software to "inflate his paychecks." A federal jury charged Shelton II with tax evasion, bank fraud, and wire fraud. AdvertisementAdvertisementA former tech executive has been charged with embezzling around $2.7 million from his employer after an indictment alleged that he inflated his paychecks and hid proceeds from the IRS for more than eight years. Another California tech executive was sentenced to 11 years in prison after being convicted of four counts of defrauding investors last year.
Persons: Aubrey Jackson Shelton, Shelton, Aubrey Jackson Shelton II, Elizabeth Holmes Organizations: US, Office, Northern District of, San Locations: Northern District, Northern District of California, San Francisco, San Francisco federal, California
New York CNN —Most of the year, people visit Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to ski, fly fish or simply enjoy the region’s vast natural beauty. Setting the stage: the economic backdropInflation has slowed significantly since last year’s Jackson Hole conference, alongside glimmers of a cooling labor market. A look back at past Jackson Hole conferencesLast year’s Jackson Hole conference was notable not just because it was the first time in two years that economists gathered in person. Months after Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech, he unveiled a whole new phase of bond-purchasing in what has now become known as QE2. A columnist for the Financial Times went so far as to say that Draghi “certainly stole the show this year [at Jackson Hole].”No matter what comes out of the conference this year, it’s clear that what happens in Jackson Hole doesn’t stay in Jackson Hole.
Persons: Jackson, Jerome Powell, He’ll, Michael Cahill, Goldman Sachs, Powell, , Ben Bernanke, , Cahill, , Bernanke’s Jackson, Bernanke, Janet Yellen, “ it’s, ” Cahill, Michael Woodford, John Williams, Williams, European Central Bank Mario Draghi Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Kansas City Fed, Jackson, Fed, Traders, Goldman, CNN, Columbia University, ” New York Fed, San Francisco Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Financial Times Locations: New York, , Wyoming, Woodstock, Jackson
"I just think he's going to play it about as down the middle as possible," said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America. "He's got to strike that chord that the Fed is going to finish the job. "He's going to want to be a little more hawkish than neutral. But he's not going to deliver what he delivered last year. A Cleveland Fed inflation tracker anticipates August's figures will show a noticeable jump.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Win Mcnamee, Joseph LaVorgna, circumspect, LaVorgna, Donald Trump, He's, It's, Quincy Krosby, he's, Inflation's, Krosby, Patrick Harker, you've, Harker, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Jackson Organizations: Financial, Federal, Getty, Federal Reserve, Nikko Securities America, Research, National Economic Council, LPL, Cleveland, San Francisco Fed, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Washington , DC, circumspect Powell
Aug 23 (Reuters) - United Airlines (UAL.O) has agreed to a $30 million settlement after a deplaning incident left a quadriplegic man in a vegetative state, court papers show. The settlement with the family of Nathaniel Foster Jr, known as N.J., was disclosed on Tuesday in San Francisco federal court, and reached after one day of trial. Now 26, Foster has "significant" brain damage, cannot speak or eat solid foods, and is expected to live to age 31-1/2, down from 39 before the incident, court papers show. "Our top priority is to provide a safe journey for all our customers, especially those who require additional assistance or the use of a wheelchair," United said in a statement Wednesday. The case is Foster et al v United Airlines Inc et al, U.S. District Court, Northern District of California, No.
Persons: Nathaniel Foster Jr, Foster, Foster's, Jonathan Stempel, Nick Zieminski Organizations: United Airlines, United Express, al, United Airlines Inc, Court, Northern District of, Thomson Locations: San Francisco federal, Monroe , Louisiana, Pleasant Hill , California, U.S, Northern District, Northern District of California, New York
He called the U.S. central bank's misreading of the issue "a major failure" that can mar analysis of where the economy stands. Since 2016, policies from the vastly different Trump and Biden administrations have combined in a sort of accidental complementarity to keep both job and economic growth above the Fed's estimate of potential. Median Fed policymaker projections of potential U.S. economic growth have slid from a level around 2.5% a decade ago to 1.8% as of June 2023, when the last projections were issued. Under pressure from colleagues to raise interest rates as the economy accelerated, Greenspan resisted and accommodated the expansion instead of fighting it. But it could help economic growth continue even as prices cool, another prop for the "soft landing" the Fed hopes to engineer and possible evidence of rising potential.
Persons: John Williams, Joe Biden, Adam Posen, Donald Trump, Trump's, Biden, Dana Peterson, Peterson, Jerome Powell, Board's Peterson, Alan Greenspan's, Greenspan, Jackson, John Fernald, Huiyu Li, Michael Feroli, Antulio Bomfim, Powell, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed, San Francisco, Fed, Reuters, BlackRock, Bank of England, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Biden, Conference Board, Jackson, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Trust Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Washington
Americans are burning through their savings and could run out funds as early as this quarter, a Fed study showed. As of June, Fed estimates show US households held less than $190 billion of aggregate excess savings. With excess savings dwindling, Americans have leaned on their credit cards for spending. Excess savings refer to the difference between actual savings and the pre-recession trend, Fed researchers said. As of June, Fed estimates show that US households held less than $190 billion of aggregate excess savings.
Persons: Hamza Abdelrahman, Luiz Oliveira, Abdelrahman, Oliveira Organizations: Service, Privacy, Federal Reserve Bank of San, San Francisco Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
Since CPI inflation tends to be faster than the PCE measures that the Fed uses to set its inflation target, that means one important area of policymaker focus may have dipped below target already. But the pace of increase pales against the double-digit gains in 2021, and the inflation rate for rental housing has also slowed. A recent study by San Francisco Fed economists, using real-time housing and rent data from companies like Zillow, projected "a sharp turnaround in shelter inflation" through late next year. Two versions of the San Francisco estimates show shelter inflation hitting 0% next year, well below the 3%-to-4% range that Meyer said could help the Fed traverse its last inflation mile more quickly. Other aspects of the economy may also be snapping into place, a possible late-arriving validation of the Fed's initial expectation that rising inflation in 2021 would prove "transitory."
Persons: Brent Meyer, Meyer, Quincy Krosby, they've, Christopher Waller, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Atlanta Fed's, Fed, CPI, San Francisco Fed, LPL, Richmond Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, San Francisco
The U.S. producer price index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.3% in July, according to the Labor Department. And in the 12 months through July, the PPI rose 0.8% against estimates for a 0.7% advance. On Thursday, Wall Street's main indexes had finished flat, giving up most early gains on milder-than-feared consumer price inflation data. In currencies, the dollar index rose 0.107%, with the euro down 0.18% to $1.0959. On the U.S. Treasuries side, yields rose after the hotter than expected PPI.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Paul Christopher, Christopher, Mary Daly, Sterling, Brent, Sinéad Carew, Elizabeth Howcroft, John Stonestreet, Susan Fenton Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Reserve, Labor Department, PPI, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Britain, International Energy Agency, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wells Fargo, St Louis, Asia, Pacific, Japan, London
Asian stocks fell to a one-month low and European indexes were in the red, with the STOXX 600 down 0.8% at 1125 GMT (.STOXX). "We’re still getting a mixed message from the inflation numbers," said Ben Laidler, global markets strategist at eToro. The pound was up 0.4% at $1.2725 , after GDP data showed Britain eked out some unexpected growth in the second quarter, helped by a strong June performance. But it remains the only large advanced economy that has not yet regained its pre-COVID late-2019 level, data showed on Friday. Investors will be watching for UK inflation data next Wednesday.
Persons: DAX, Mary Daly, We’re, Ben Laidler, eToro's Laidler, Brent, Elizabeth Howcroft, John Stonestreet, Susan Fenton Organizations: Credit Suisse, Wall, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Investors, Nasdaq, HK, Britain, West Texas, International Energy Agency, Thomson Locations: Silicon, China, Australia, Japan
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