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Regional banks will be in focus in the week ahead as traders head into the thick of third-quarter earnings season. Regional bank earnings are also expected to be a weak point this season. But a closer look into the sector's sub-industries showed that regional banks are anticipated to have tumbled by 15% last quarter. Traders parsing through regional bank earnings will pay special attention to signs of narrowing net interest margins (NIM). Earnings season underway Many investors anticipate that the third-quarter earnings season will be alright.
Persons: Wells, Kumar, FactSet's John Butters, NIM, They'll, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, FactSet's Butters, Nancy Tengler, Lauren Goodwin, we'll, Goodwin, Charles Schwab, Lockheed Martin, Goldman, Zions, Kinder Morgan, Lam, McLennan, Philip Morris, Huntington Bancshares, , Jesse Pound Organizations: Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Sri, Kumar, Silicon Valley Bank, Regional Banking, Dow Jones Industrial, JPMorgan, Hamas, Northern Trust, U.S . Bancorp, T Bank, Citizens Financial, Bank of America, Federal Reserve, Companies, Investments, New York Life Investments, Index, Johnson, Bank of New York Mellon, Goldman Sachs Group, Hunt Transport Services, Omnicom, United Airlines Wednesday, Housing, Elevance, Citizens Financial Group, Procter, Gamble, Abbott Laboratories, Discover Financial Services, Las Vegas Sands, PPG Industries, Steel Dynamics, Tesla, Netflix, Lam Research, Philadelphia Fed, Truist, Alaska Air Group, Fifth Third Bancorp, American Airlines Group, Marsh, Philip Morris International, Union, CSX, Comerica, Regions Financial, American Express, Interpublic, Cos Locations: Wells Fargo, Silicon, Ukraine, Israel, J.B, Las Vegas, Philadelphia, Truist Financial, Union Pacific, Freeport, Huntington
Just as they did during the March regional banking crisis, higher rates are expected to lead to a jump in losses on banks' bond portfolios and contribute to funding pressures as institutions are forced to pay higher rates for deposits. The issue constrains the bank's interest revenue and has made the lender the worst stock performer this year among the top six U.S. institutions. Expectations on the impact of higher rates on banks' balance sheets varied. Still, others including KBW and UBS analysts said that other factors could soften the capital hit from higher rates for most of the industry. There's also concern that higher interest rates will result in ballooning losses in commercial real estate and industrial loans.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Marco Bello, Christopher McGratty, David Konrad, McGratty, Morgan Stanley, Betsy Graseck, Konrad, Gerard Cassidy Organizations: JPMorgan Chase &, Reuters, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, First, Bank of America, Comerica, Fifth Third Bank, KeyBank, UBS, RBC Locations: Miami , Florida, U.S, Wells Fargo, Silicon, First Republic
JPMorgan Chase Bank is seen in New York City, U.S., March 21, 2023. In the first 10 days of this month, the $1.46 billion Invesco KBW Bank ETF (KBWB.O) saw net outflows of $336.18 million, while the $2.49 billion SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF saw net outflows of $19.58 million. Overall, the Invesco fund and the SPDR fund posted net inflows of $381.16 million and $565.15 million so far this year. The prices of the ETFs are down 23% and 28.4%, respectively, as bank stocks fell sharply earlier this year following the collapse of California-based Silicon Valley Bank and two other U.S. lenders. "Although, our equity research team indicates that selling may have pushed prices down too far and created a buying opportunity."
Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Hogan, Riley, JPMorgan Chase, Wells, Bryan Armour, Bansari Mayur, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: JPMorgan Chase Bank, REUTERS, Exchange, KBW Bank, Regional Banking, Valley Bank, U.S, Federal, JPMorgan, Citigroup, North America, Morningstar, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, California, Bengaluru
Cooper Neill | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe stock sell-off that hit regional banks this year has exposed lenders including Zions and Comerica to the risk of being delisted from the Standard & Poor's 500 index. This year's regional banking crisis has already caused changes in the composition of the S&P 500, the most popular broad measure of large American companies in the investing world. Companies that no longer qualify as large-cap stocks are at heightened risk of demotion from the S&P 500. S&P guidelinesTo be considered for inclusion in the S&P 500, companies need to have a market capitalization of at least $14.5 billion and meet profitability and trading standards. The committee that decides the composition of the S&P 500 looks to minimize churn and accurately represent reference sectors, making changes only when "ongoing conditions warrant an index change," according to S&P.
Persons: Cooper Neill, Blackstone, Lincoln, Chris Marinac, Janney Montgomery Scott, Banks, Dow Jones Organizations: Comerica Inc . Bank, Bloomberg, Getty, Zions, Comerica, Lincoln National, Valley Bank, First, JPMorgan Chase, Investors, Newell Brands Locations: Dallas , Texas, First Republic, ZIons
Bitcoin and gold are "critical hedges" against the potential for monetary policy that reduces the value of currency, as well as the return of inflation, Jefferies says. Wood emphasized that investments in both bitcoin and gold should be viewed by investors as insurance rather than short-term trades. Jefferies recommends a 10% allocation to bitcoin for U.S. dollar-based long-term global investors, such as pension funds. Alongside physical gold and unhedged gold mining stocks and Asia equities, Jefferies has added bitcoin to this global portfolio in the past couple of years. This year, the firm introduced a global long-only equity portfolio that includes a 3% weighing in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) .
Persons: Jefferies, Christopher Wood, Wood, bitcoin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Jefferies, U.S, Signature Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank Locations: U.S, bitcoin, Asia
But interest rates are unlikely to stay this high for long, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe Federal Reserve has sowed panic among investors and that's led to the latest bout of dysfunction in the bond market, Wall Street experts say. But according to some market experts, the selloff is largely fueled by feelings of panic in the market rather than fundamentals. "Coming out of the last FOMC meeting two weeks ago, I think that's really when the bond market broke down," Michele added. AdvertisementAdvertisement"This is clearly a panic attack," market veteran Komal Sri-Kumar said to CNBC on the selloff in bonds.
Persons: Treasurys, Tom Lee, , that's, Jerome Powell, It's, Powell, Bob Michele, Michele, Komal, Kumar, it's, there's, Lee Organizations: Service, Wall, Treasury, Asset, CNBC Locations: Silicon, Spain, Germany
Instead, people like Ken Kencel — CEO of Churchill Asset Management, a private credit division of asset management giant Nuveen — held court. In the next decade, he predicted that private credit shops and direct lenders could fill in the holes in the asset-based lending space, as well as home and auto loans. Private credit — or alternative credit or direct lending — is a subsect of finance that has grown rapidly thanks to higher interest rates and distressed banks. Higher interest rates are forcing institutions — the pensions and endowments that make up hedge funds' biggest investors — to rethink their portfolios. But while the Bridgewater founder had the rapt attention of the room, it was at a direct lending panel a couple of hours later when an ambitious audience member pitched himself to the private credit executives onstage.
Persons: Ray Dalio, Cliff Asness, Ken Kencel, , I've, Banks, Gregory Robbins, Jan Van Eck Organizations: Greenwich Economic, Churchill Asset Management, Golub Capital, Bridgewater Locations: Greenwich, China
FILE PHOTO:The logo of PNC Bank, a subsidiary of PNC Financial Services Group, is seen on the window of a branch in Washington, U.S. April 30, 2023. REUTERS/Ashraf Fahim/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 3 (Reuters) - PNC Financial Services' (PNC.N) banking unit said on Tuesday that it had bought a portfolio of capital commitments from Signature Bridge Bank worth $16.6 billion in an agreement with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp as receiver. "PNC has long participated in the capital commitments business and the acquired portfolio is highly complementary," the bank said in a statement. PNC Bank purchased these commitments and loans without any funding, guarantees or loss-sharing agreements from the FDIC, the company added. The FDIC closed Signature Bank in March amid an intensifying regional banking crisis and transferred all of its deposits and substantially all of its assets to Signature Bridge Bank, a full-service financial institution that is operating under a board appointed by the watchdog.
Persons: Ashraf Fahim, Jaiveer Singh, Anil D'Silva Organizations: PNC Bank, PNC Financial Services Group, REUTERS, PNC Financial Services, Signature Bridge, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, PNC, FDIC, Bank, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Bengaluru
Irrational behavior due to concerns over the stability of the U.S. banking system has made Charles Schwab 's stock a cheap investment opportunity, according to value investor Daniel O'Keefe. O'Keefe said this "cash sorting" was mistaken for a bank run. "On the negative side, cash sorting moved back up in August post the July Fed hike, and Ameritrade client attrition around conversion activity also rose considerably." "We believe fears of a reacceleration in cash sorting behavior are overblown," the JPM analysts said in a note to clients on Sept. 20. He initiated a position in Schwab for the value fund, calling it "a phenomenal business" trading at a discount.
Persons: Charles Schwab, Daniel O'Keefe, Schwab, O'Keefe, " O'Keefe, It's, Brian Bedell, Devin Ryan Organizations: Artisan Partners, Artisan, Fund, CNBC, Schwab, Deutsche Bank, JMP Securities Locations: U.S, Schwab
The Wall Street sign is pictured at the New York Stock exchange (NYSE) in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., March 9, 2020. Seven megacap stocks -- Apple (AAPL.O), Microsoft (MSFT.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O), Amazon (AMZN.O), Nvidia (NVDA.O), Tesla (TSLA.O) and Meta Platforms (META.O) -- have led broader markets higher this year. Their rising stock prices ballooned valuations, however, and some investors say the megacaps could be vulnerable if climbing bond yields keep pressuring stocks. "When the big tech stocks start going down ... the indexes go down," said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. Still, strategists point out that the rise in implied volatility for tech stocks is no more than for the broader market.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, megacaps, LSEG, Matt Maley, Miller, , Matt Stucky, Chris Murphy, Rick Meckler, J, Bryant Evans, ” Evans, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Federal Reserve, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Nasdaq, Susquehanna Financial Group, Amazon, Cherry Lane Investments, Cozad Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, New Jersey
A sign for the Royal Bank of Canada in Toronto, Ontario, Canada December 13, 2021. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio Acquire Licensing RightsSept 29 (Reuters) - Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) (RY.TO) on Friday said it had injected capital into City National to strengthen the Los Angeles-based subsidiary's liquidity position and pay down higher-cost borrowing. "This is part of the management actions that RBC is taking on the path to improving profitability at City National" an RBC spokesman told Reuters. RBC, which bought City National in 2015 for $5.4 billion, said in August that the subsidiary's losses in the third quarter stood at $38 million, compared with a profit of $102 million a year ago. RBC has also hired Greg Carmichael, the former CEO of U.S. regional lender Fifth Third Bancorp, to sit on City National's board.
Persons: Carlos Osorio, Dave McKay, Greg Carmichael, Mike Rizvanovic, Rizvanovic, Jaiveer Singh, Balu, Maju Samuel, Paul Simao Organizations: Royal Bank of Canada, REUTERS, RBC, City National, Reuters, Valley Bank, Fifth Third Bancorp, City, Thomson Locations: Toronto , Ontario, Canada, Los Angeles, California, U.S, Santa Clara, Bengaluru, Toronto
However, Citi thinks the stock has been "caught in the storm" and sees upside potential ahead. Following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, Zions got caught in a broader panic among regional banks, which led to deposit outflows and funding pressures. 31, 2023, the bank's core deposits fell by nearly 10% to about $64 billion, according to Citi. "ZION has been impacted by deposit outflows, but we find that ZION's core deposits (excluding broker deposits) ranks second lowest on cumulative beta on total deposits so far this cycle. ZION reported positive trends towards the end of 2Q as core deposits were up 3% sequentially," Horowitz said.
Persons: Zions Bancorporation, Keith Horowitz, Zions, Horowitz, ZION, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Citi, Silicon Valley Bank, Watch, Management Locations: Silicon, Mar, Zions, 4Q23, NII, ZION
Bitcoin has long perplexed investors with its ability to act as both a store of value and a high risk asset, but Wolfe Research says it's worth owning either way and to lean into the nuance. "A question we have often asked is whether BTC should be treated more like a risk asset or a storage of value such as Gold. "Bitcoin is highly correlated to small caps, a risk asset. That said however, bitcoin only rallied this spring thanks to the banking scare, which saw investors flee to the 'safety' of the coin," he added. Though bitcoin was initially designed to be digital cash and an alternative financial system, it spent much of 2022 trading like a speculative asset.
Persons: Bitcoin, Wolfe, It's, Rob Ginsberg, bitcoin, Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: BTC, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank Locations: Silicon, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJack Henry CEO on banking, cloud computing, and impact of rising ratesDavid Foss, Jack Henry & Associates CEO, discusses financial technology and the state of regional banking.
Persons: Jack Henry, David Foss Organizations: Associates
Passersby are reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 25 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. This may hinge largely on whether the U.S. bond market regains its footing. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:- Singapore inflation (September)- Vietnam inflation, trade, industrial production (September)- Vietnam GDP (Q3)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Lisa ShumakerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Goldman Sachs, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: REUTERS, Fed, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Bank of Japan, Treasury, Thailand's, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, U.S, Vietnam, Singapore
Leading fund manager Mark Costa operates in one of the toughest parts of global markets: the foreign small- and mid-cap value category. In the past decade, his Brandes International Small Cap Value Fund (BISAX) has outperformed 91% of its peers despite logging a modest 4.8% annual return in that span. Of the 11 years that Costa has co-managed the fund, 2023 is shaping up to be one of the best. His foreign-focused small-cap value fund is up 25.3% year-to-date compared to 6% for its index, which puts it in the top 3% of its category, according to Morningstar. The best opportunities Costa sees in Japan are in its regional banking and healthcare industries.
Persons: Mark Costa, he's, Brandes, Costa, Morningstar, Costa wasn't, we've, Yue Yuen, We've, they've Organizations: Costa, Value, PAX, Companies, Royce, C Locations: China, it's, Hong Kong, Indonesia, People's Republic, Europe, Japan, United Kingdom
Whether that's just simply relative PE or our more complicated relative valuation model," DeSanctis said. Still, he added that small caps have struggled to escape the headwinds from the regional banking crisis earlier in the year. How to play small caps There's one sector both Wolfe's Ginsberg and DeSanctis like when it comes to small caps: energy. He added that small caps in the cyclicals market have traded under 13 times earnings — and better than secular growth names. "I think a lot of stuff has already been priced into small cap stocks," said DeSanctis.
Persons: Russell, BTIG, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, We're, Jefferies, Steven DeSanctis, that's, DeSanctis, Wolfe's Ginsberg, Michael Bloom Organizations: Nasdaq, Wolfe Research, Energy
Goldman Sachs expects rates to hold steady again as inflation trends down and the labor market remains strong. But Raymond Bridges, the portfolio manager of the Bridges Capital ETF, an actively managed equity long-only fund, believes the overall macro outlook is still bearish. But regional banks continue to access this program every week, Bridges said. But just because he's bearish on the macro outlook doesn't mean he's not going to take advantage of short-term opportunities. His ETF, launched on May 11, is a mix of US equity-index ETFs, large-cap stocks, and cash or cash equivalents.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Raymond Bridges, Bridges, Joseph Abate, Jerome Powell, he's bearish, Russell Organizations: Fed, Bridges Capital ETF, Barclays, Reuters, Regional Banking, Trust, BPI
Steve Eisman, the investor who called and profited from the subprime mortgage crisis, said Thursday that he's staying away from bank stocks due to risks from crimped margins and tougher regulations. "I happen to think the whole bank sector is uninvestable," Eisman, senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, said on CNBC's " Squawk Box. " Uncertainty caused by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this year triggered outflows at other regional banks and larger institutions. With short-term rates spiking higher than long-term rates, bank margins have been hurt. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF , which tracks 140 regional banks, has fallen more than 33% this year.
Persons: Steve Eisman, he's, Eisman, Neuberger Berman, Eisman's, Banks, Michael Lewis Organizations: Federal, Regional Banking ETF Locations: Silicon
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHigher rates are better for regional banking sector, says Atlas Merchant CEO Bob DiamondBob Diamond, Atlas Merchant Capital CEO, Former Barclays CEO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk this week's FOMC decision, what's next for the central bank, the state of the economy and more.
Persons: Bob Diamond Bob Diamond, what's Organizations: Atlas, Atlas Merchant Capital, Barclays
But the essence of the argument is that lower bond volatility ups the amount of cash liquidity flowing around world markets, and vice versa. But it is the incremental movement in this giant pool that arguably matters most for stock markets and asset prices. Even though global liquidity is shrinking as you might expect in the face of rising Western interest rates, central bank balance sheet reduction and a higher dollar, other offsets are significant. But falling bond volatility has likely played a big part in softening the blow too. "The two together have helped overall liquidity conditions - but we are mindful that bond markets are likely to remain volatile and need to be monitored carefully."
Persons: CrossBorder, Mike Dolan, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Federal Reserve, coy, Treasury, Fed, Bank, People's Bank of, New York Fed, Reuters Graphics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, punchbowl, People's Bank of China, United States
Sept 18 (Reuters) - Cadence Bank (CADE.N) CEO Dan Rollins calls the regional banking crisis from earlier this year "March madness." Interviews with half a dozen regional bank executives and economists show the March banking crisis has had a lasting impact on the regional banking industry and the economy. Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said the banking crisis had "a magnifying effect" on the Fed's tightening but its full impact would come with a lag. The failure triggered a crisis of confidence, with depositors moving their money from regional banks to the perceived safety of the largest lenders. The KBW Regional Bank Index (.KRX) is down about 20% since early March despite a summer rebound.
Persons: Dan Rollins, Rollins, Mark Zandi, , Zandi, Torsten Slok, Slok, Cadence's Rollins, Steve Wyett, Wyett, Banks, Cadence’s Rollins, Randy Chesler, Chesler, Moody's Zandi, Jeff Jackson, Raj Singh, Singh, Paritosh Bansal, Anna Driver Organizations: Cadence Bank, Moody’s, Apollo Global Management, Bank, Reuters Graphics, Valley, Regional, BOK, Federal, Loan, Thomson Locations: . Federal, Silicon, Tulsa , Oklahoma, Kalispell , Montana, Wheeling , West Virginia
Regional bank stocks, in particular, gained as much as 35% before the bond warnings and downgrades began. The higher interest rates bond analysts cited hurt profits some, but most banks' net interest income and margins were higher than a year before. The ratings actions pushed the regional bank stock index 10% lower for the month-long period ending Sept. 8, according to Morningstar (the Moody's bank warning was issued August 7). By any reckoning, the argument about banks is about two things: Interest rates and real estate, specifically office buildings. The average regional bank stock rose 8% after earnings, Morgan Stanley said, with banks beating profit forecasts by an average of 5%.
Persons: Morningstar —, downgrades, Morgan Stanley, Jill Cetina, Cetina, Banks, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Scott Rechler, Jeff Greene, Alexander Yokum, Dick Bove, Bove, Yokum Organizations: First, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Getty, Moody's Investors Service, Poor's, Fitch, Morningstar, Federal Reserve, Fedwatch, RXR, Research, Odeon Capital Locations: First Republic, Regional, Moody's, U.S
Bill Ackman predicts more pain for regional banks and commercial real estate as interest rates bite. Ackman warns AI will be hugely disruptive, and predicts Elon Musk's X will ultimately succeed. "The commercial real estate picture has not gotten better. You're going to start seeing real defaults, particularly with office assets. The pressure on the regional banking system — you're going to start to see more of it come now on the commercial real estate side."
Persons: Bill Ackman, Elon Musk's, Ackman, Julia La Roche, Elon, We've, it's, Elon Musk Organizations: Pershing Square, Service, Twitter Locations: Wall, Silicon, Elon Musk's
How big banks won the banking crisis
  + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
Before the Bell: Now that the dust is hopefully settling on this year’s regional banking crisis, are there clear winners and losers in the banking sector? David Kotok: There’s no question the [global systemically important banks, G-SIB] won and the middle-sized banks — let’s call that banks with between $50 billion and $250 billion in assets — were the losers. So if you stand back from the immediate 2023 banking crisis, and you say, how many banks were there 20 years ago in the United States, how many banks are there today? The UK economy is bigger than we thoughtThe UK economy recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic much faster than previously thought, reports my colleague Hanna Ziady. For many office workers around the United States, it also means more return-to-office mandates.
Persons: JPMorgan Chase, Bell, David Kotok, he’s, SIB, Jamie Dimon, J.P, Morgan, hasn’t, Hanna Ziady, John Springford, Andy Jassy, CNN’s Jeanne Sahadi, unaddressed, Merck Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Silicon Valley Bank, UBS, JPMorgan, Republic Bank, Cumberland Advisors, , Credit Suisse, First, Federal Reserve, Office, National Statistics, ONS, Centre, European Reform, Labor, Amazon, Business Locations: New York, Silicon, First Republic, United States, Jekyll, America, Hanna Ziady ., Germany, Canada, Japan, Italy, France, Britain
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