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☆ Real-estate investing in a down market: Strategies to use, how far home prices will fall, cities where prices are falling the most, which markets to invest in, and more
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

That's bad news for current real-estate investors, and probably good news for prospective ones. On the other hand, it's potentially good news for prospective real-estate investors who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for better deals. Below is a list of Insider stories to help navigate the current real-estate investing landscape as prices fall. They see US home prices falling another 6% in 2023, putting peak-to-trough declines at around 10%. Justin Sullivan / Getty ImagesOne of the most common financing strategies real-estate investors use to build up a portfolio is the BRRRR method: buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat.

☆ German industrial output falls more than expected in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Industrial production fell 3.1% on month, 0.7% decline expectedProduction in energy-intensive sectors fell 6.1%Economic slowdown in winter expected to be mild - ministryBERLIN, Feb 7 (Reuters) - German industrial production fell more than expected in December, driven by a plunge in output from energy-intensive sectors, the federal statistics office said on Tuesday. The drop was more severe in energy-intensive industrial sectors, where production decreased by 6.1% in December compared with November. "MISERABLE END TO 2022"For 2022 as a whole, German industrial production was 0.6% lower in calendar-adjusted terms than in 2021 and down 5.0% from the pre-pandemic year of 2019. According to Pantheon's estimates, German industrial production fell by 0.7% in the fourth quarter. While industrial production fell in December, German industrial orders rose by 3.2%, beating forecasts and posting the biggest increase in more than a year thanks to strong domestic and eurozone demand, data showed on Monday.

☆ A chief economist who called the 2008 housing bubble says home prices will fall another 15% over the next year as they remain too disconnected from buyer incomes and the supply of homes on the market
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Central to their call is the fact that homes remain vastly unaffordable. Homes remain near their most unaffordable levels since the early 1980s, according to the National Association of Realtors' Housing Affordability Index. Home prices fall when supply outpaces demand. "New home sales remain prone to slump suddenly if the upward trend in existing home supply continues," Clancy said. KMPG economists say prices could fall as much as 20% in 2023, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley say prices will fall another 6.1% and 4%, respectively.

☆ Euro zone economy posts surprise expansion in the fourth quarter, curbing recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The latest euro zone growth numbers are out as the ECB considers what to do next. The euro zone beat expectations on Tuesday by posting positive growth in the final quarter of 2022 and reducing fears of a potential regional recession. Preliminary Eurostat data released Tuesday showed that the euro zone grew 0.1% in the fourth quarter. The latest figures come after the euro area posted a 0.3% GDP increase for the third quarter of last year. The euro zone is expected to have grown by 1.9% in the fourth quarter, compared with the same period of 2021, according to the preliminary data.

☆ Recession 2023: Jerome Powell's Legacy Will Dictate Inflation, Stock Market, Economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +15 min

This obsession with controlling inflation — and potentially causing serious pain for average Americans — is driven by one major factor: legacy. High inflation eats away at consumers' purchasing power, and persistent inflation seeps into expectations for price and wage adjustments, which further fuel inflation. What's more, the full impact of the Fed's rate hikes have yet to hit. Legacy actsThere are signs that certain Fed officials are ready to dial back on the inflation fight. And navigating such a tricky economy — without throwing hundreds of thousands of Americans out of work — could cement Powell's legacy.

Annual headline inflation in the first half of the month reached 7.94%, beating both the 7.77% recorded in the month of December and economists' forecasts of 7.86%, though still below the two-decade high of 8.70% registered in August and September. That means annual inflation remains far above the Bank of Mexico's target rate of 3%, plus or minus one percentage point. It is unlikely that the bank will make any cuts to the interest rate in the next six months, Bank of Mexico board member Jonathan Heath said in an interview last week. In the first half of January, according to statistics agency INEGI, consumer prices rose 0.46% compared to the previous two-week period, while the core index rose 0.44%, both also exceeding market estimates. Mexico's Latin American peer Brazil, where monetary tightening is on pause, also released mid-month inflation data on Tuesday, with prices slightly beating market forecasts.

☆ Investor skepticism grows on Fed reaching rate goal, says Pantheon's Ian Shepherdson
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestor skepticism grows on Fed reaching rate goal, says Pantheon's Ian ShepherdsonIan Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed, rate hikes and the economy.

☆ Brazil's 2022 inflation slows sharply, misses government target
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Marcela Ayres | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Central bank chief Roberto Campos Neto is legally required to publish a letter justifying the inflation target miss. It will be released on Tuesday, according to the central bank. That will give the central bank "more cause to delay the start of its easing cycle," Jackson said. According to IBGE, inflation last year was mainly impacted by the increased costs of food and beverages (+11.64%) and health and personal care items (+11.43%). State-run oil giant Petrobras (PETR4.SA) contributed to the disinflationary trend, adopting a series of price cuts when international oil prices settled.

☆ Euro zone inflation rate slides to 9.2% as energy price surge cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation in Europe has been impacted by higher energy prices and supply shortages. Inflation in the euro zone dropped for a second consecutive month in December, but analysts do not expect it to spark a change in tone from the European Central Bank. It follows November's headline inflation rate of 10.1%, which represented the first slight contraction in prices since June 2021. At the time, the central bank forecast an average inflation rate of 8.4% for 2022, 6.3% for 2023 and 3.4% for 2024. Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING Germany, said these numbers "are not a relief, yet, only a reminder that euro zone inflation is still mainly an energy price phenomenon."

☆ Homebuilding has more room to fall, and odds for a recovery are 'next to nil' until demand improves, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Homebuilding has room to fall further even after the latest drop in housing starts, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. Senior US economist Kieran Clancy wrote in a Tuesday note that demand needs to improve before a recovery can begin. New housing data showed single-family home starts declined 4.1% last month. Meanwhile, building permits plunged 11.2%, with single-family permits down 7.1% and multifamily down 17.9%. Clancy added that the likelihood of a homebuilding recovery remains "next to nil until housing demand improves in a sustained and meaningful way."

☆ ECB delivers fourth straight increase but slows pace
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

COMMENTS:FLORIAN HENSE, SENIOR ECONOMIST, UNION INVESTMENT, FRANKFURT”This is probably the most hawkish 50 basis points they could come up with. Everything I read in the statement press release sounds hawkish and maybe even “very hawkish” to me. However, core inflation momentum remains firm and the labour market tight.”MARCHEL ALEXANDROVICH, EUROPEAN ECONOMIST, SALTMARSH ECONOMICS, LONDON:“It (the ECB statement) is very hawkish. “The 50 bps hike was expected and the pace of QT (quantitative tightening) was in the ballpark of what folks were expecting. “Even though the ECB is now going at it a bit slower, that doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re also going to target a lower terminal rate.

☆ UK property demand slides 44% after market-rocking mini-budget, study shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

In the wake of the budget, a record number of mortgage deals were pulled and many lenders paused offerings as they assessed the volatility. Buyer demand fell 44% year-on-year in the four weeks to Nov. 20, according to property website Zoopla, while new property sales declined 28%. Although a fall in house prices is widely predicted, the company's predictions are less bearish than others. It puts U.K. house price growth at 7.8% year-on-year. We do not see any evidence of forced sales or the need for a large, double digit reset in U.K. house prices in 2023," its report said.

☆ Outperforming asset manager picks 3 global retailers to short amid a fall in consumer spending
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Shares of mass market retailers will fall as profit margins are squeezed, and consumers curtail spending next year, according to Plurimi Wealth's chief investment officer. Selling shares "short" means borrowing shares through a broker to sell them immediately with a plan to repurchase them when the price is lower. In such an environment, mass market retailers that benefit from discretionary spending will see their revenues decline. While investors are split over the health of the American consumer, European shoppers are mostly expected to curtail their spending habits next year. Elsewhere in Europe, economists are also expecting a recession for the first half of next year that will impact discretionary spending.

☆ Mexico economy grows 0.9% in Q3 but momentum seen easing on tighter conditions
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Nov 25 (Reuters) - Mexico's economy grew 0.9% in the third quarter from the previous three-month period, national statistics agency INEGI said on Friday, boosted mainly by the primary sector and despite an ongoing aggressive monetary tightening cycle. Repeating a trend seen in the previous quarter, Latin America's second-largest economy posted across-the-board growth in the period, with primary, secondary and tertiary sectors expanding 2%, 0.6% and 1.1%, respectively. Tighter monetary conditions, however, are seen slowing down Mexico's GDP growth ahead, and President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has recently asked the central bank to balance fighting inflation with the need to protect economic growth. In annual terms, INEGI said, the country's economy expanded 4.3% in the third quarter compared to a year earlier, beating expectations of 4.1% growth from economists polled by Reuters. Separately, data showed on Friday that Mexico's economic activity grew 0.7% in September from August and 5.2% from September of 2021, both also ahead of market projections.

☆ Mexico core inflation higher than expected in early Nov, rate hikes to continue
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Gabriel Araujo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MEXICO CITY, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Mexico's annual consumer prices slowed more than expected during the first half of November, but the core inflation index - which remains a main concern in the country as it grapples with high costs - came in above market forecasts. Data from national statistics agency INEGI showed on Thursday that annual headline inflation in Mexico hit 8.14% in the period, down from 8.53% a month ago and also below consensus of 8.24% in a Reuters poll of economists. The latest inflation figures backed expectations that the local central bank, known as Banxico, would keep hiking interest rates. "Overall, headline inflation continues to edge down in Mexico, but core inflation remains sticky, which will continue to keep policymakers uneasy," said Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief Latin America economist, Andres Abadia. On a monthly basis, Mexico's headline inflation rose 0.56% while the core index was up by 0.34% in mid-November, the statistics agency said.

☆ UK government borrows less than expected in October, but worse to come
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said headline public sector net borrowing totalled 13.549 billion pounds ($16 billion) last month. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a higher reading of 22 billion pounds, largely because the figures were expected to show large first payments under the government's energy bill support to households and energy suppliers. Tuesday's data showed a relatively modest 3.4 billion pounds of "other" subsidies - an initial indicative estimate of the energy bill support measures. Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the full cost of these measures would show up in the coming months. ($1 = 0.8447 pounds)Reporting by Andy Bruce, Editing by Kylie MacLellan, Paul Sandle and Raissa KasolowskyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ A crypto exec shares details of his phone calls with Sam Bankman-Fried days before FTX imploded
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Today, we're zooming in on the revealing calls that took place just before the fall of FTX, between Sam Bankman-Fried and a rival exec. Sam Bankman-Fried, the recently dethroned king of crypto, had been making a lot of calls seeking a lifeline before his firm crumbled. Bankman-Fried, Lai added, sounded calm and admitted the liquidity crunch was his own fault. "We think prices need to drop by about 20% from their spring peaks in order to reach a sustainable level." Coinbase stock Markets Insider10.

☆ Home prices could fall faster if once-reluctant sellers flood the market with more supply before the downside worsens, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Previously reluctant home sellers could flood the market with inventory before prices decline further, he warned. "We think prices need to drop by about 20% from their spring peaks in order to reach a sustainable level," he said. So far, the inventory of existing homes has crept up to 3.2 months' worth of sales in October from 1.5 months' worth in January. "That trickle of supply could quickly become a flood, though, increasing the speed — if not the ultimate depth — of the decline in home prices," Clancy said. "We think prices need to drop by about 20% from their spring peaks in order to reach a sustainable level."

☆ House prices might plunge 20% in the hottest US markets - and the slump could hammer the wider economy, top investor says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Home prices could tumble 20% in some of the hottest US markets, top investor Peter Boockvar said. He cited the surge in prices during the pandemic, and soaring mortgage rates pricing out buyers. The Bleakley Advisory boss warned a housing slump could hit consumer spending and the wider economy. "It's an extraordinary rise, and now you have 7% mortgage rates, which are 15-year highs," he said. Paul Krugman, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, has also predicted a housing slump.

That came on the heels of last week's report that October consumer prices rose less than anticipated, and Fed officials have signaled they are likely done with the three-quarter-point rate increases approved at the central bank's last four meetings. "Tech companies may have over-extrapolated the rapid growth they experienced during the pandemic and are now correcting for over-hiring," the Goldman economists wrote. Job growth through October remained strong but was moderating from its pre-pandemic highs, and Fed officials said they saw some initial signs that wage growth was beginning to cool. Curbing demand is one aim of Fed rate increases that have come at the fastest pace in 40 years on the expectation that less consumption will translate into less inflation. "You'd actually expect more competitive pressure to start bringing those costs down," Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said Monday at a Bloomberg event.

☆ Home price declines will accelerate even as sales bottom out early next year, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The decline in home prices will accelerate even as sales are headed for a bottom early next year, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. "The good news for homebuilders is that a floor is coming," Pantheon economist Kieran Clancy said in a note. "The good news for homebuilders is that a floor is coming," Pantheon economist Kieran Clancy said in a note. "Mortgage rates have peaked, suggesting that demand will flatten in the months ahead, albeit at an extremely depressed level. Accordingly, we expect housing starts and sales to bottom out early next year, even as the decline in home prices accelerates."

The Producer Price Index measures inflation at the firm level, showing the change in prices paid for the supplies, materials and services that businesses use, and for the final goods that retailers resell. Prices for final goods less volatile commodities and shipping costs rose 0.2% in October, continuing a slow pace for those "core" items. The model shows the Fed rate now rising only to 4.75%-5.00% in March, whereas a week ago it showed the Fed rate likely exceeding 5% by then. The breakeven-inflation rate on the 5-year Treasury Inflation Protected Security slid to the lowest in a month at 2.38%. Shepherdson has been focused on the producer price index as more important than usual because of market distortions driven by the pandemic, and said that a drop in the index's margin components would influence the direction of consumer prices going forward.

☆ A 'once in a lifetime opportunity, bigger than 2008': A real estate investor who owns 109 properties shares 5 tips to take advantage of a coming 20% correction in the housing market
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

After the expenses were paid, which included the principal, interest, and taxes, each property cash flowed between $250 to $400. As of September, the median existing-home median sales price had dropped 7% from its peak in June to $384,800, according to the National Association of Realtors. Additionally, high inflation will mean people are less able to afford buying property, Hanson said. Tips to take advantage of the coming downturnOver time, real estate always recovers — and that's what Hanson is willing to bet his cash on. You also want to stay below the market median for the area you're buying in, he added.

☆ Chile inflation slows to 8-month low in positive surprise
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Fabian Cambero | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SANTIAGO, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Chile's inflation slowed to its lowest level in eight months in October, official data showed on Tuesday, a positive surprise likely to reinforce the central bank's take that its aggressive monetary tightening cycle has come to an end. According to INE, inflation last month was boosted mainly by higher food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, as well as transportation costs. Scotiabank's Chile senior economist Anibal Alarcon, on the other hand, said he already forecasts an aggressive rate cut of between 100 and 200 basis points in January 2023 after October's "true disinflationary surprise". "We expect the market to align with our view very quickly with significant falls in nominal rates," Alarcon added. Reporting by Fabian Andres Cambero and Gabriel Araujo; Editing by Steven Grattan and Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ October jobs report: Employers keep hiring, but unemployment rises
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The report shows employers added 261,000 jobs in October and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from 3.5% in September. The unemployment rate is calculated using a separate survey of households rather than the employer survey used to count workers on the job. The higher-than-expected unemployment rate is also still low by historical standards — September’s 3.5% reading matched a half-century low. “Obviously, 261,000 jobs is great,” he told CNN in an interview Friday morning after the jobs report. But he acknowledged that even with the strong labor market, it’s high prices, not jobs, on the minds of most Americans.

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