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The June hike is now off the table completely, and traders now see a 15% chance of the Fed not raising at all this week or in June. This is significant for the June 14 policy decision because the Fed also releases its new Summary of Economic Projections that day. The deposit flight may have stopped but Fed officials will be acutely aware of the negative feedback loop on the economy, given the deep-rooted linkages between small banks and businesses. The March survey of small businesses by the National Federation of Independent Business showed multiple signs of weakness, and even more attention than usual will fall on the next Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. Will the Fed be raising rates on June 14 if this is still a live issue?

☆ Germany has a plan to tackle a rapidly ageing workforce: recruiting robots
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

But what does enhancing the workforce through robots and digitalization actually look like? There won't be major job losses as a result of digitalization, according to Ulrich Walwei, vice director of Germany's Institute for Employment Research. Ultimately, the goal of integrating robots into the workplace is to augment human capabilities, not replace them. "Our robots can free up human workers to focus on more complex and creative work, leading to more fulfilling and engaging jobs," Pehlivan told CNBC via email. "Ultimately, the goal of integrating robots into the workplace is to augment human capabilities, not replace them," he added.

☆ Catastrophic drought that’s pushed millions into crisis made 100 times more likely by climate change, analysis finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Laura Paddison | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

CNN —The unrelenting drought that has devastated the Horn of Africa and left more than 20 million people facing acute food insecurity would not have been possible without climate change, a new analysis has found. In a world without human-caused climate change, this devastating drought would not have happened. The organization is made up of a team of international scientists who, in the immediate aftermath of extreme weather events, analyze data and climate models to establish what role climate change played. The scientists also looked at whether climate change was to blame for the lack of rain, but concluded there was no overall impact. “The country continues to pay the price of global warming and climate change,” he added.

The regular army and the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) issued statements accusing each other of failing to respect the ceasefire. "We have not received any indications here that there's been a halt in the fighting," United Nations spokesman Stephane Dujarric told a news briefing in New York. The fighting has triggered what the United Nations has described as a humanitarian catastrophe, including the near collapse of the health system. Fighting also raged in the west of the country, the United Nations said. [1/7] Satellite image shows a closer view of a burning building at the Merowe Airbase, Sudan, April 18, 2023.

Deposits have fled small banks at a record pace, the availability of credit for small businesses is deteriorating rapidly, and these firms are increasingly reluctant to hire workers or expand. The relationship between these thousands of banks and millions of small businesses runs deep, and is critical to the health of the economy at large. And so is wider GDP, when you bear in mind that small businesses account for around 40% of all jobs. Small banks will probably tighten credit standards further, limiting a key source of funding for small businesses - many of which are riskier borrowers and key customers for these banks. "Because small banks are likely to tighten credit more aggressively and small businesses disproportionately borrow from them, the hit to lending to small businesses will likely be larger," they wrote on Monday.

☆ A chief economist who called the 2008 recession sees signs that the economy has already begun to unravel — and says a recession will be apparent as early as this summer
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The unemployment rate will start to rise this summer, says Ian Shepherdson. The US economy is already starting to unravel and a recession will arrive as soon as this summer, according to Ian Shepherdson, the founder and chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics. "We expect to see payrolls falling in the summer, pushing up the unemployment rate." Shepherdson pointed to the National Federation of Independent Businesses Hiring Intentions survey as a leading indicator of where the job market is headed. The current unemployment rate of 3.5% still sits near a more than five-decade low.

☆ Stock futures are flat Monday as March inflation reports loom ahead: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures were little changed on Monday night as investors look toward the release of economic data later this week. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures ticked higher by 29 points, or 0.09%. And that can't be determined until we get those data points start coming in in real time. But I think that's what the market is waiting on," said Keith Buchanan, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments. Several central bank speakers will make appearances on Tuesday: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will be speaking that afternoon and evening.

☆ Japan killed 17 million chickens amid an outbreak of bird flu. Now it's running out of space to bury them.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Japan culled over 17 million chickens this season amid its worst bird flu outbreak ever, per NHK. As a result, egg prices soared in Japan, prompting some restaurants to suspend sales of egg-based items. However, not all of them have enough capacity to incinerate so many carcasses, according to another NHK report in October. The mass culling of so many chickens over bird flu impacts food prices. It's not just Japan as there's an ongoing bird flu outbreak globally that's affecting the poultry industry — and in turn egg prices.

If you have one of the Chase IHG Rewards credit cards, you'll earn an extra 10 points per dollar with the IHG® Rewards Premier Credit Card and IHG® Rewards Premier Business Credit Card, or 5 points per dollar with the IHG® Rewards Traveler Credit Card. Other ways to redeem IHG pointsOpt for airline miles instead of IHG Rewards pointsIf you'd rather receive airline miles for your stays instead of IHG Rewards points, that's an option, though redemption rates vary by airline. Transfer IHG points to a friendThere's also an option to transfer IHG points to a friend or family member at a cost of $5 per 1,000 points, or buying them through IHG's website. Some of these redemptions are as low as 100 IHG points, so if you haven't had any activity in your account recently, this is a good way to keep your IHG points from expiring. Use IHG points to attend special eventsThrough IHG Auctions, you can redeem IHG points for concerts, sports, special events, or other experiences.

☆ War has killed 262 Ukrainian athletes, sports minister says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

April 2 (Reuters) - Russia's war against Ukraine has claimed the lives of 262 Ukrainian athletes and destroyed 363 sports facilities, the country's sports minister, Vadym Huttsait, said on Saturday. "They all support this war and attend events held in support of this war," Huttsait said, according to a transcript on President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's website. The International Olympic Committee has recommended the gradual return of Russian and Belarusian athletes to international competition as neutrals. Reuters could not independently verify the number of Ukrainian athletes killed or how many facilities have been destroyed. In the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion on Ukraine in February 2022, a number of Ukrainian national-level athletes have taken up arms voluntarily to defend their country.

☆ Europe drought: This once-thriving lake has all but dried up -- a story repeated across Europe
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Laura Paddison | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

While in the United States, the snow and rain that have pummeled California have helped fill reservoirs and ease unrelenting drought, winter has been far from kind to many parts of Europe. A buoy is seen on the banks of the partially dry Lake Montbel as France faces a record winter dry spell. “Lake Montbel remains at an abnormally low level,” Franck Solacroup, the regional director of the Adour-Garonne Water Agency, which covers the area that includes Lake Montbel, told CNN. Farmers like Rouquet, who rely on the lake, are having to make tough decisions on what to grow. “This is the most extreme winter in terms of low snow cover,” she told CNN.

☆ COVID led to sharp rise in vaccine compensation schemes, but gaps remain -Oxford
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Maggie Fick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Regulators globally have shown that COVID-19 vaccines are safe and adverse events are extremely rare. But in those rare cases, the pandemic exposed problems in some countries -- such as in the United States -- with vaccine compensation schemes when large proportions of populations are inoculated. In January 2020, when the pandemic began, only 26 vaccine compensation schemes existed. She named Brazil as a country that has no compensation scheme, for example. The draft pandemic treaty which is being negotiated by World Health Organization member states calls for a global compensation scheme for vaccine injuries.

☆ ABB invests in US robot factory as reshoring trend hots up
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( John Revill | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ZURICH, March 15 (Reuters) - ABB (ABBN.S) is expanding its main US robot factory as its customers there in the automotive, packaging and machinery industries confront a tight labour market as they bring production back home. The United States is the third largest in the global robotics market, which is worth around $50 billion per year according to estimates by ABB and the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). Rapid growth is expected as US companies bring production closer to home to avoid logistic log jams which have gummed up supply chains since the global pandemic. A survey by ABB last year showed 70% of North American businesses suffered supply chain disruptions in the last year. "The potential for growth in the industrial robots market is huge," Atiya said.

☆ Factbox: Cyclone Freddy among Africa's deadliest storms
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

JOHANNESBURG, March 15 (Reuters) - Cyclone Freddy has killed more than 270 people in southern Africa since it first made landfall last month, making it one of the deadliest storms to hit the continent in the last two decades. Below are some of the deadliest storms recorded in Africa since 2000. CYCLONE FREDDY, 2023Cyclone Freddy has killed more than 270 people, mostly in Malawi but also in Mozambique and Madagascar. CYCLONE GALIFO, 2004Cyclone Galifo killed about 170 people when it struck Madagascar in 2004, according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. SOMALIA CYCLONE, 2013A tropical cyclone that hit Somalia's semi-autonomous Puntland region in 2013 killed about 160 people, according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.

☆ U.S. small business confidence improves further in February - NFIB
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, March 14 (Reuters) - U.S. small-business confidence improved further in February, but many owners continued to experience difficulties finding workers, according to a survey on Tuesday. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index increased 0.6 point to 90.9 last month. Forty-seven percent of owners reported job openings that were hard to fill, up 2 points from January, with workers scarce for both skilled and unskilled positions. According to the NFIB, worker shortages were acute in the transportation, services and construction industries. About 38% of owners reported raising average selling prices, down 4 points from January.

☆ Op-ed: The calm before the storm – These 3 drivers will dictate the landing ahead for the U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Rebecca Patterson | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The approach of those storms seems an appropriate analogy to the U.S. economic outlook today. Investors today are keenly focused on what kind of economic landing the U.S. will have and how best to position for different outcomes. That's critical for the broader growth outlook, given that consumption represents around two-thirds of the economy. While many U.S. firms are expressing their nervousness about the economic outlook, they are at the same time still seeking to hire. A negative feedback loop would likely ensue, with less income weighing on spending and less spending making companies more cautious.

☆ Madagascar suspends schools as cyclone Freddy approaches
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Lovasoa Rabary | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

ANTANANARIVO, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Madagascar's government on Tuesday suspended schools and transport in the path of tropical cyclone Freddy, which was likely to make landfall in the southeast of the country by evening. The cyclone is expected to hit Mananjary district, about 270 km from the capital Antananarivo, with winds of nearly 155 km per hour, Madagascar's meteorological services said. All traffic in cyclone Freddy's projected path was suspended overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday, the country's ministry of transport and meteorology said. Cyclone Freddy is expected to make landfall nearly a month after storm Cheneso battered the island nation of 29 million, killing 33 people and forcing thousands from their homes. "It is expected to cause locally devastating winds and a very dangerous sea state near the impact zone in Madagascar," UNOCHA said on Monday.

The quake killed at least 36,187 in southern Turkey, while authorities in neighbouring Syria have reported 5,800 deaths - a figure that has changed little in days. While several people were found alive in Turkey on Wednesday, the number of rescues has dwindled significantly. Neither Turkey nor Syria have said how many people are still missing. More than 4,000 fatalities have been reported in the rebel-held northwest, but rescuers say nobody has been found alive there since Feb. 9. Deliveries from Turkey were severed completely in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake, when a route used by the United Nations was temporarily blocked.

☆ U.S. weekly jobless claims fall; monthly producer prices rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, offering more evidence of the economy's resilience despite tighter monetary policy. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 194,000 for the week ended Feb. 11, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims remain low despite high-profile layoffs in the technology sector and other industries highly sensitive to interest rates. Some of the laid-off workers are likely finding new work or are delaying filing for benefits because of severance packages. A second report from the Labor Department on Thursday showed monthly producer prices accelerating in January.

"We have a nice little sign in front of our register that says 'Hey, credit card fees, they cost us a lot of money,'" Victor Garcia, longtime owner of Sol Dias, told CNBC. CNBC | Cait FredaThe swipe fees aren't new, but the worsening problem comes at a time when Main Street businesses across the country are increasingly struggling with changing macroeconomic conditions. Although the central bank does not conduct the same survey for credit card transactions, the processes used for debit and credit cards are similar. Meanwhile, credit card fees amount to the third-highest operating expense on average for restaurants, according to the Texas Restaurant Association. The European Union cracked down on similar increases, capping fees in 2015 at 0.2% for debit card purchases and 0.3% for credit card purchases.

Much as he would have liked to significantly increase supplies, Biosca-Reig said he couldn't justify investing millions of euros in new production lines unless he was paid more for the generic drug to cover sharply rising costs. European generic drugmakers say the tender system and regulated prices have fuelled a race to the bottom, and European firms are being undercut by suppliers from Asia. BRUSSELS, WE HAVE A PROBLEMThe European Medicines Agency (EMA) and European Union lawmakers acknowledge there is a problem. Half the generic medicines sold in Spain are priced below 1.60 euros per box or bottle, the country's generics manufacturing association said. But companies with smaller market shares, such as Israel's Teva (TEVA.TA), which has 5% of the region's amoxicillin market according to Medicines for Europe, are constrained.

LONDON/GENEVA, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Governments may have to reserve drugs and vaccines for the World Health Organization to distribute in poorer countries to avoid a repeat of the "catastrophic failure" during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to an early draft of a global pandemic agreement. The agreement, which is commonly known as the pandemic treaty, has been drawn up by WHO member states and will now go through a lengthy negotiating process before being finalised. Talks on the draft treaty will begin on Feb. 27 and are set to continue to 2024. However, there will be "heat and opposition" in the negotiations ahead, particularly around the intellectual property provisions, said James Love, director of the NGO Knowledge Ecology International. The draft also calls for a new WHO Global Pandemic Supply Chain and Logistics Network to ensure better and fairer distribution of counter-measures, as well as a global compensation scheme for vaccine injuries.

☆ All countries 'dangerously unprepared' for future pandemics, says IFRC
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

GENEVA, Jan 30 (Reuters) - The world is "dangerously unprepared" for future pandemics, the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) say in a report published on Monday, calling on countries to update their preparedness plans by year-end. In its World Disasters Report 2022, the IFRC said "all countries remain dangerously unprepared for future outbreaks" despite COVID-19 killing more people than any earthquake, drought or hurricane in history. said Jagan Chapagain, secretary general of the IFRC, the world's largest disaster response network. "There will be no excuse for a continued lack of preparedness after having gone through three terrible years." "The important thing is there has to be a political will to commit to that," he said.

☆ The world is 'dangerously unprepared' to handle the next pandemic, the Red Cross says in a scathing report
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Natalie Musumeci | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The world is "dangerously unprepared" for future pandemics, the Red Cross warned in a report. The Red Cross' secretary general said the COVID-19 pandemic "should be a wake-up call." The humanitarian aid organization said in its World Disasters Report released Monday that "many countries" were not prepared for COVID-19 and that "all countries remain dangerously unprepared for future outbreaks." Pandemic preparedness plans, the report says, "should include concrete measures to strengthen equity, trust, and local action." By 2024, according to the report, all countries should adopt a new treaty and revised International Health Regulations.

☆ Paying back Covid loans is hammering millions of businesses
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Gabe Cohen | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Unlike some other pandemic programs, these 30-year loans, carrying an interest rate of 3.75% for businesses, were intended to be paid back. But revenue is still down more than 45% — and it's time to start paying back those government loans. Coming out of the pandemic, small businesses have faced difficult hurdles, like staffing shortages, supply chain issues and inflation. Now add a possible looming recession, just as these EIDL loans come due. For EIDL loans over $200,000, a personal guaranty was required for individuals with 20% or more ownership in the business.

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