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☆ 2008-level home-price declines are coming for some areas, one of Wall Street's top housing advisors now says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( James Rodriguez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

John Burns Real Estate Consulting expects price drops of 20% or more for certain housing markets. Higher mortgage rates have wrecked demand for homes, but the firm says prices are still too high. Devyn Bachman, the senior vice president of research for John Burns, told Insider she had begun to expect "GFC-like pricing declines in certain markets." A survey conducted by John Burns last month found roughly 18% of homebuilders were already reporting year-over-year net home-price declines. "It's going to be a challenging one to two years for anyone involved in housing," Bachman said.

☆ Mortgage rates rise again, creeping closer to 7%
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Mortgage rates have more than doubled since the beginning of this year as the Federal Reserve pushed ahead with its unprecedented campaign of hiking interest rates in order to tame soaring inflation. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds. As investors see or anticipate rate hikes, they make moves which send yields higher and mortgage rates rise. This week, the 10-year US Treasury hit a high not seen since 2008, an indication that mortgage rates could rise even further. Affordability remains a challengeHigher mortgage rates are making it even harder for prospective buyers to afford a home.

☆ U.S. housing starts fall in September; building permits rise
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Housing starts dropped 8.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.439 million units last month. Data for August was revised down to a rate of 1.566 million units from the previously reported 1.575 million units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts would come in at a rate of 1.475 million units. Permits for future home construction rose 1.4% to a rate of 1.564 million units in September. Residential fixed investment declined at its steepest pace in two years in the second quarter, contributing to the second straight quarterly drop in gross domestic product during that period.

☆ Mortgage demand drops to a 25-year low, as interest rates climb
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Mortgage demand, which has suffered four straight months of declines, fell last week to the lowest level since 1997, as interest rates continued to rise. Interest rates were so low during the first two years of the Covid pandemic that the vast majority of borrowers with higher rates already refinanced. As potential homebuyers struggle to afford a house, given higher interest rates and still high home prices, more are now turning to adjustable-rate loans, which offer lower rates. Mortgage rates moved even higher this week, with another reading from Mortgage News Daily putting the 30-year fixed at 7.15% on Tuesday. Higher rates and falling buyer demand caused homebuilder sentiment to drop again on the National Association of Home Builders index.

☆ Homebuilders aren't helping to lower home prices because they too are sitting on the sidelines waiting for inflation and mortgage rates to fall
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | Ben Winck | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Like prospective homeowners, homebuilders aren't happy with the housing market, either. The housing market isn't working for most Americans. In September, residential homebuilding slowed as housing starts decreased 8.1% from August levels, according to a report from the US Census Bureau that was released on Wednesday. During the month, single-family housing starts decreased 4.7% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 892,000. "This will be the first year since 2011 to see a decline for single-family starts," Robert Dietz, the chief economist for the National Association of Homebuilders, said.

☆ U.S. factory output solid in September; builder sentiment slumps further
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Dan Burns | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The two data points out Tuesday illustrate the uneven impact the U.S. central bank's rate hikes are having so far on the economy. Manufacturing output rose 0.4% last month, keeping pace with an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in August, the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday. Overall industrial production rose 0.4%, after slipping 0.1% the prior month. The rate hikes have torpedoed activity in the housing sector, and Wednesday's data from the National Association of Home Builders reinforced that. "And given expectations for ongoing elevated interest rates due to actions by the Federal Reserve, 2023 is forecasted to see additional single-family building declines as the housing contraction continues."

☆ Homebuilder sentiment drops to half of what it was six months ago
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Homebuilder sentiment in the single-family home market has fallen to half what it was just six months ago as mortgage rates climb, according to a new report. "High mortgage rates ... have significantly weakened demand, particularly for first-time and first-generation prospective home buyers," said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter, a homebuilder and developer from Savannah, Georgia. Of the index's three components, current sales conditions slid 9 points to 45, and sales expectations in the next six months dropped 11 points to 35. On a three-month moving average, the sentiment score in the Northeast fell 3 points to 48. In the South it fell 7 points to 49 and in the West declined 7 points to 34.

☆ U.S. home builder sentiment falls for 10th straight month - NAHB
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Oct 18 (Reuters) - Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders fell for the 10th straight month in October as soaring mortgage rates and bottlenecks for building materials made new housing less affordable for many first-time buyers. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market index dropped eight points to 38 this month. "This will be the first year since 2011 to see a decline for single-family starts," NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said in a statement. "And given expectations for ongoing elevated interest rates due to actions by the Federal Reserve, 2023 is forecasted to see additional single-family building declines as the housing contraction continues." Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Dan Burns; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Goldman Sachs favors Tesla and another big automaker even during an economic slowdown
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for electric car sales and believes Tesla and General Motors will benefit from the trend. The Inflation Reduction Act , signed by President Joe Biden in August, will benefit carmakers such as Tesla and GM with $7,500 worth of tax credits per car, according to Goldman. Goldman said it now expects Tesla to make 2.4 million cars worldwide in 2024, up from its previous forecast of 2.275 million. According to the report, the tax credits will also benefit GM and Ford , although only "slightly." Housing sales figures, which are also strongly correlated to vehicle sales, point toward a gloomy picture , according to Goldman.

Gig company stocks were hammered on the news, with Uber (UBER.N), Lyft (LYFT.O) and DoorDash (DASH.N) all falling at least 10%. Employees can cost companies up to 30% more than independent contractors, studies suggest. U.S. Labor Secretary Marty Walsh in a statement said businesses often misclassify vulnerable workers as independent contractors. Those groups have said that any broad rule would hurt workers who want to remain independent and have flexibility. Worker advocacy groups have said that companies are increasingly misclassifying employees as independent contractors, depriving workers of fair pay and benefits to pad their profits.

☆ Rideshare, retailers brace for tough U.S. independent contractor rule
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Nandita Bose | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Broadly defining independent contractors as employees would also force companies to pay benefits, such as overtime pay and health benefits, that would hurt their bottom line. Employers can save about 30 percent by skipping payroll taxes and unemployment and benefit costs, workers' groups estimate. The meetings at the White House were one-sided, with officials at OIRA letting groups speak and not participating or asking follow-up questions, several employer sources said. A White House official said that listening without comment is part of the standard rulemaking process at OIRA. WORKERS WARN OF GROWING PAINGig Workers Rising, RideShare Workers United, Mobile Workers Alliance, We Drive Progress also met White House officials to broaden the definition of employee further, according to records and sources.

☆ The pandemic's real estate jobs boom is turning into a bust as layoffs hit
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-24 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Shannon-Pettypiece-Circle-Byline-Template.Jpg | Shannon Pettypiece | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +7 min

Some of the biggest players in the real estate industry, including RE/MAX, Redfin and Wells Fargo, have announced layoffs in recent months totaling thousands of jobs. Over that period, 200,000 people became real estate agents, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. Workers in the mortgage industry have been among the hardest hit as demand for refinancing and home sales tumble. Real estate brokers have also been affected, said Ken H. Johnson, a former real estate broker who is now an associate dean at Florida Atlantic University, where he studies the real estate industry. Even in the best of times, it can be a struggle for new brokers to be able to make a full-time living selling real estate.

☆ The Fed is embracing a possible housing-market correction as a way to get ‘red-hot’ prices back to a more sustainable level
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The housing market is in a slump. "We probably in the housing market have to go through a correction to get back to that place." The National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo Housing Market Index — a popular gauge of homebuilder confidence — tumbled further into recession territory in September. As the Fed's benchmark rate creeps higher still and lifts mortgage rates, demand for homes is likely to crumble even further. "From a sort of business cycle standpoint, this difficult correction should put the housing market back into better balance."

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday hiked its key interest rate by 0.75% for the third time in a row as it races to get ahead of the galloping inflation that is sapping the earnings of American consumers. This month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported inflation had climbed by 8.3% year on year and 0.1% month on month. By raising interest rates, the Fed hopes to rein in consumption and borrowing, which in turn should put downward pressure on prices. One area in which higher interest rates are taking a significant bite is housing. Bankrate's McBride laid out some financial advice Americans should keep in mind as interest rates climb.

☆ U.S. housing starts rebound in August; building permits decline
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Housing starts rebounded 12.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.575 million units last month. Data for July was revised down to a rate of 1.404 million units from the previously reported 1.446 million units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts would come in at a rate of 1.445 million units. Permits for future home construction dropped 10.0% to a rate of 1.517 million units in August. A survey on Monday showed the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market sentiment index fell for the ninth straight month in September.

☆ More homebuilders lower prices as sentiment falls for ninth straight month
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

More builders are lowering prices for homes as their confidence in the market continues to tumble. Homebuilder sentiment in September fell 3 points to 46 in the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Indeed, builders blame rising rates for their falling sentiment. On a three-month moving average, sentiment in the Northeast fell 5 points to 51 and also dropped 5 points to 44 in the Midwest. In the South, it slipped 7 points to 56, and in the West, where home prices are highest, sentiment declined 10 points to 41.

☆ The Fed may raise rates by less than expected in November as the housing market is in a deep recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A "deep recession" in the housing market may lead the Fed to hike rates by less than expected in November, said Pantheon Macroeconomics. The Fed may opt to raise rates by 50 basis points instead of 75 basis points, which is what investors were widely pricing in. Still, the housing market is in a "deep recession," and the pain will spread beyond homebuilders soon to depress housing-related retail sales, he warned. The Fed has raised interest rates four times in 2022, leading 30-year mortgage rates to rise above 6% for the first time since 2008. The rate of the Housing Market Index's decline has slowed in recent months but the latest report likely doesn't mark the floor, said Shepherdson.

☆ U.S. home builder sentiment falls for ninth straight month in September
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Octavio JonesWASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders fell for the ninth straight month in September as soaring mortgage rates and persistently high prices for building materials made new housing less affordable for many first-time buyers. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market index dropped three points to 46 this month. Mortgage rates have surged even higher. According to a Reuters survey, housing starts likely slipped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.445 million units last month from a pace of 1.446 million units in July. Permits for future home construction are, however, expected to have declined to a rate of 1.610 million units from a pace of 1.685 million units in July.

☆ Confused about the housing market? Here's what's happening now – and what could happen next
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-09 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The U.S. housing market surged during the pandemic as homebound people sought new places to live, boosted by record-low interest rates. Here are the major factors behind the topsy-turvy housing market. Mortgage ratesThe main driver of the slowdown is rising mortgage rates. In the five years before interest rates began to rise, that income-to-payment ratio held steady around 20%. "Given the large role affordability challenges appear to be playing in shifting housing market dynamics, the recent pullback in home prices is likely to continue," Walden said.

☆ These are the cheapest, most-loved stocks in the S&P 500
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-08 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Walt Disney , for example, is trading at a 26% discount on a forward price-to-earnings basis, below its historic 5-year average forward P/E. Qualcomm is trading at an almost 39% discount on a forward P/E basis, well below its historic 5-year average forward P/E. Meanwhile, home builder DR Horton is very cheap on a forward P/E basis, trading at an almost 47% discount, well below its historic 5-year average forward P/E. The stock is down 34% year to date, but has 28% upside to the average price target, according to FactSet. One is Halliburton , which is up about 25% year to date yet is still cheap on a forward P/E basis.

☆ Canada's housing bubble is a cautionary tale for the US real-estate market
▼ + stars: | 2022-04-13 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Canada's housing market is in overdrive as prices soar to record highs. The US housing market is starting to resemble Canada's — that should be a cautionary tale for all. As housing affordability plummets in Canada, it's hard to ignore the similarities to the US real-estate market. As affordability plunges in Canada, it stands as a reminder of how inventory can offset a real-estate market. The solution for both countries, Dietz said, is simple in theory but difficult in practice: "The key to improving housing affordability is increasing inventory."

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