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☆ India's central bank holds rates as expected, shifts stance to 'neutral'
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, as widely expected, but tweaked its policy stance to "neutral," opening the door for rate cuts amid early signs of a growth slowdown in the economy. The Monetary Policy Committee, which consists of three RBI and three external members, kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50% for a tenth straight policy meeting. The committee, however, changed its policy stance to "neutral" from "withdrawal of accommodation." The MPC last changed rates in February 2023, when the policy rate was raised to 6.50%. India's overall growth slowed to 6.7% in the June quarter.

Organizations: Bank of, Global, Reserve Bank of India, Monetary, Committee, Reuters, MPC, PMI Locations: Bank of India, Mumbai, India

☆ Fed officials were divided on whether to cut rates by half a point in September, minutes show
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization." Since the meeting, economic indicators have showed that the labor market is perhaps stronger than officials favoring the 50 basis point move had expected. The minutes noted that the vote to approve the 50 basis point cut came "in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks" against the labor market. Though the document was more detailed about the debate over whether to approve the 25 basis point cut, there was not as much information about why voters supported the larger move. Since the Fed meeting, both the 10- and 2-year Treasury yields have surged about 40 basis points.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, nonfarm, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Market, Treasury Locations: WASHINGTON

☆ Stock market today: US stocks trade mixed with Fed minutes and rate outlook in focus
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks traded mixed as investors looked ahead to the central bank's meeting minutes. Traders are anticipating a quarter-point rate cut in November. Monetary policy is in focus after an unexpectedly hot job report in September, fueling doubt over whether the Fed will issue another jumbo rate cut this year. "The tone of the Fed minutes should not change expectations of further rate cuts—the Fed is still scrambling to catch up with inflation slowing in the US, and started cutting rates late. AdvertisementAccording to Pantheon Macroeconomics, the Fed is more likely to begin cutting rates in 25-basis-point increments rather than issuing another 50-basis-point rate cut.

Persons: —, Paul Donovan Organizations: Service, Reserve, UBS Global Wealth Management, Pantheon, Fed, US Department of Justice

☆ China's growth is set to slow next year despite temporary boost from stimulus, World Bank warns
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( Dylan Butts | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

However, despite the measures, which have mainly focused on monetary policy, the World Bank's 2025 growth projection was unchanged from earlier projections. The international lender estimated that China's growth rate would drop to 4.3% next year, down from a projected 4.8% in 2024, in an economic update on Tuesday. China's economic growth rate is expected to decline further in 2025 despite a temporary boost from recent stimulus measures, according to the World Bank. The World Bank has long advocated for China to boost its growth through bold policy actions such as unleashing competition, upgrading infrastructure, and reforming education. "For three decades, China's growth has spilled over beneficially to its neighbors, but the size of that impetus is now diminishing," the World Bank said in its Tuesday report.

Persons: Aaditya, Mattoo, James Sullivan, Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs, CNBC's, Goldman Organizations: World Bank, Bank, JPMorgan, National, Reform, East Locations: Aaditya Mattoo, East Asia, Pacific, Beijing, Asia, China, beneficially

☆ Dollar holds on to 7-week highs as traders consider U.S. rates outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar clung to seven-week highs against major currencies on Tuesday as investors ponder the outlook for U.S. rates after a strong jobs report last week dashed bets for large rate cuts, while escalating tensions in Middle East dented risk sentiment. Traders have drastically shifted their monetary easing expectations from the Federal Reserve this year. That has kept the dollar on the front foot and surging to a multi-week high against the euro, sterling and the yen. The New Zealand dollar was 0.3% higher at $0.6144 ahead of the monetary policy decision on Wednesday. A majority of economists in a Reuters poll last week said the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will cut interest rate by 50 basis points.

Persons: Kieran Williams, Louis, Alberto Musalem, Shigeru Ishiba Organizations: Federal Reserve, Asia FX, InTouch, Reserve Bank of St, Treasury, Bank of, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Locations: Middle East, Asia, China, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ The economy is facing a 'no-landing' scenario that undercuts the financial relief many Americans hoped for
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

However, the economy and the job market may be too strong to warrant steep rate cuts in the near term. "September's strong employment report and upward revisions in July and August murdered the hard-landing scenario," Yardeni said in a note to clients this week. The 30-year mortgage rate has crept higher, not lower, since the Fed delivered its big rate cut. As the economy reaccelerates, inflation could become a problem again, solidifying a higher for longer interest rate outlook that many had abandoned after the Fed's jumbo rate cut last month. Advertisement"With benchmark interest rates coming down, most prospective borrowers don't feel relieved of high borrowing costs," according to Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate.

Persons: —, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Megan Horneman, Steven Blitz, Mark Hamrick Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Yardeni, Fed, Verdence Capital Advisors, TS Lombard, Philadelphia Fed

☆ China economy: Government gives $28 billion to local governments as it vows to meet economic targets
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( Juliana Liu | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Hong Kong CNN —China has set aside 200 billion yuan ($28 billion) for investment projects by local governments this year, as it promised to meet its own ambitious economic growth targets. China announced a 5% target growth rate in March, but a series of economic data over the summer has been so weak that economists were worried the goal might be missed. To help local governments struggling with mountains of debt, Beijing will provide 100 billion yuan ($14 billion) from the central government’s budget and an extra 100 billion yuan for investment projects, Zheng said. Nevertheless, investors were disappointed at the lack of details on new fiscal measures,” Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist for HSBC, told CNN. Fiscal measures, on the other hand, can include the use of taxation or other measures to impact public spending more directly.

Persons: ” Zheng Shanjie, Zheng, Xi Jinping, Fred Neumann, What’s, Jia Kang, “, … Jia Kang, –, Xi, ” Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Development, Reform Commission, HSBC, CNN, “, Ministry of Finance, Citi, People’s Bank of China Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, Asia, Shanghai, Shenzhen

☆ Wall Street giants like Goldman quickly up their bets on Chinese markets amid stimulus promises
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Goldman Sachs is the latest in a flurry of calls to upgrade China stocks after the Asian giant's recent wave of stimulus measures. Goldman predicts that Chinese stocks could even jump a further 15% to 20%, given the powerful comeback rally that has already occurred. It says the MSCI China index could have another 15% upside, and the CSI 300 index could enjoy a further 18% upside. In a Monday note, Citi also increased its price target for Chinese stocks. Following that, Wall Street started getting bullish on those stocks again, with Morgan Stanley predicting Chinese stocks are set to rally 10% and more.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, —, Vishnu Varathan Organizations: CSI, Citi, Wall, BlackRock Investment Institute, Mizuho Securities Locations: China, China's

☆ Ray Dalio says investing in China is tricky as Beijing becomes less favorable toward capitalism
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio thinks it's still tricky to invest in China right now as Beijing may be seeking to structurally move the country away from capitalism. "There's something big going on that they had a debt crisis and they also had a capitalism crisis. The high-profile investor even said he is raising his usual allocation limit and is not hedging his big China bet. Dalio said he doesn't expected big rate cuts as the economy remains in solid shape. I think the economy by and large right now itself is in relatively good balance," he said.

Persons: Ray Dalio, Dalio, David Tepper Organizations: Bridgewater Associates, Greenwich Economic, CSI, Appaloosa Management, CNBC Locations: China, Beijing, Greenwich, Greenwich , Connecticut

☆ The job market is in the 'Twilight Zone,' top economist Claudia Sahm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US job market is in a strange quandary, according to Claudia Sahm. The September jobs report was huge, but Sahm said the labor market is still cooling. AdvertisementThe job market is in a weird spot, even after Friday's stunningly strong nonfarm payroll report, Claudia Sahm says. The former Federal Reserve economist and the creator of a highly watched recession indicator pointed to signs that the labor market is cooling, despite September's blowout jobs report. Other forecasters have said the job market remains in uncertain territory, though labor conditions are generally on strong footing.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, —, they're Organizations: Employers, Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Challenger, Atlanta Fed

☆ Here are Monday's biggest analyst calls: Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Campbell Soup, Gilead, American Express & more
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

Wells Fargo upgrades Gilead to overweight from equal weight Wells says the biopharma company has an attractive setup. Wells Fargo upgrades Canadian National to overweight from equal weight Wells says it sees "accelerating growth" for the railway company. Barclays downgrades Netflix to underweight from equal weight Barclay says the "growth algorithm is getting more complex." Wells Fargo downgrades Amazon to equal weight from overweight Wells says the "positive revision story [is] on pause for Amazon. JPMorgan upgrades Ally Financial to overweight from neutral and downgrades American Express to neutral from overweight JPMorgan downgraded American Express and says it sees "asymmetric risk."

Persons: Jefferies, Wells, Morgan Stanley, it's bullish, Barclay, NFLX, Piper Sandler, Piper, Mizuho, JPMorgan downgrades Lamb Weston, JPMorgan, downgrades Sherwin, Williams, KeyBanc, Bernstein, Campbell, underperform Bernstein, Coupang, CPNG, Barclays downgrades, Avery Dennison, Garmin, Hershey Organizations: Apple, Apple Intelligence LT, UW, Vertiv Holdings, Coty, Barclays, Netflix, MKSI, Mizuho, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Alliance, Deutsche, UBS, NXP, Express, American Express, Barclays downgrades DuPont, DuPont, Bank of America downgrades Constellation Brands, Bank of America, Constellation Brands, Bank of America downgrades Comerica, of America, CMA, Air Products, Hershey Locations: OW, Gilead, Canada, underperform

☆ Fed cuts could turn the tide for commercial real estate. Where to find opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may help turn the tide for commercial real estate. "Lower interest rates are not a magic bullet, but less restrictive monetary policy lays the groundwork for a commercial real estate recovery," wrote senior economist Charlie Dougherty. "Decreased long-term interest rates appear to be easing upward pressure on cap rates and slowing declines in property valuations. "That said, reduced interest rates should prevent distress from spreading and shorten the hurdles coming down the road," he added. Gimple specifically likes single-asset, single-borrower CMBS and commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations.

Persons: Wells Fargo, Charlie Dougherty, Dougherty, Douglas Gimple, Gimple, It's, that's Organizations: Treasury, Companies, Fed Locations: Central, Diamond, Los Angeles, New York, Miami, Hawaii

☆ The Fed is done cutting rates this year as the 'phantom recession' is finally dead, market vet says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed is done cutting interest rates for the rest of the year, according to Ed Yardeni. Fears of a recession have been almost completely eliminated, the market vet said in a note. The no-show Fed-triggered recession will remain a no-show, especially now that the Fed has started to lower the FFR even though it isn't warranted by the performance of the economy," Yardeni wrote. I think it broadens out from the Magnificent Seven to the S&P 493," Yardeni added, speaking to Bloomberg on Monday. "We're going to have another quarter where I think earnings will go to a record-high in the third quarter."

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, —, landers, they're Organizations: Service, Reserve, Yardeni, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Services, Institution of Supply Management, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Bloomberg, Investor

☆ BOJ unlikely to hike before January: PineBridge Investments
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBOJ unlikely to hike before January: PineBridge InvestmentsTadashi Matsukawa of Pinebridge Investments says the BOJ is likely still staying tuned to US data and the Fed before it decides on when it will hike rates next year – but he rules out any change in monetary policy in 2024.

Persons: Tadashi Matsukawa Organizations: PineBridge, Pinebridge Investments

☆ Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The bank's economists over the weekend lowered their recession probability to just 15%, which chief economist Jan Hatzius classified as the "unconditional long-term average." September's smashing nonfarm payrolls surge of 254,000 and a downward move in the unemployment rate served as a catalyst for the firm to nearly abandon the chance of a contraction. Prior to the report, traders had been betting that the Fed might repeat its 50 basis point — half percentage point — interest rate cut from September before the end of the year. But expectations have swung now, and Goldman concurs with market pricing that the "next few meetings" will see 25 basis point moves. That's about 1.5 percentage points lower than the current level and 2 full percentage points below the pre-September cut.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Goldman, Lisa Shallett, Morgan Stanley, Shallett Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ China’s economy is in bad shape. Can its ‘whatever-it-takes’ stimulus effort turn things around?
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-06 | by ( Juliana Liu | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The stimulus measures should have come far sooner, says Lun, but better late than never. Beijing has largely held back on unveiling fiscal measures, which can include the use of taxation or other measures to impact public spending. Another one trillion yuan may be set aside for recapitalizing banks or helping indebted local governments to issue bonds. Jia said China’s economy had expanded sufficiently since then to support the issuance of Treasury bond financing between four trillion to 10 trillion yuan. Any meaningful stimulus measures must tackle the problem of oversupply in the property market, experts said.

Persons: Francis Lun, he’s, Lun, ”, we’re, Juliana Liu, Ray Dalio, Pan Gongsheng, Li Yunze, Wu Qing, Pan, Jing Liu, it’s, Xi, Jia Kang, Jia, Chi Lo Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, Index, CNN, Geo Securities, Nikko Asset Management, Bridgewater Associates, National Development Reform Commission, People’s Bank of China, Financial Regulatory, China Securities Regulatory, HSBC, Reuters, Ministry, Finance, Ministry of Finance, China Academy of New, Barclays, BNP, Management Locations: China, Hong Kong, Causeway, Beijing, Renhuai

☆ 33 top stocks to buy in a market with few undervalued investments: Morningstar
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-05 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Here are 33 of the firm's favorite stocks heading into a pivotal fourth quarter. Therefore, it's no shock that those growth stocks are responsible for the market's lofty valuation. AdvertisementMorningstar33 top stocks to ownIn Morningstar's fourth-quarter note, the firm designated 33 stocks as its top picks across sectors and groups like cyclicals, defensives, and economically sensitive companies. "To outperform, we think investors will need to look for contrarian investments and story stocks," Sekera wrote. Along with each company is its ticker, market capitalization, group, sector, rating, price target, upside to that target, and selected commentary from Morningstar.

Persons: —, Dave Sekera, Morningstar, Sekera Organizations: Morningstar, Service, Stocks

☆ Economy's on the track the Fed wants and they can follow the dot plot, says JPMorgan's David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomy's on the track the Fed wants and they can follow the dot plot, says JPMorgan's David KellyDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Friday's jobs report in regards to the Fed's monetary policy, if there's a risk-on signal for equity markets, and much more.

Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly David Kelly Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management

☆ US economy added 254,000 jobs in September, logging surprisingly robust growth
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

CNN —US job growth surged in September, blowing past expectations and providing solid reassurance for the ongoing stability of the labor market. Employers added an estimated 254,000 jobs in September, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. “The outlook for the economy in the months ahead is quite favorable, according to the September jobs report. As job gains dropped off from their once breakneck pace, economists were quick to note that the labor market was merely slowing and not at risk of imminent collapse. “The labor market is strong,” she said.

Persons: “, ” Brian Bethune, —, Chris Rupkey, ”, Elise Gould, Gould, Jerome Powell, September’s, it’s, ” Bethune, ‘, ’, Josh Hirt, ” Hirt, they’ve Organizations: CNN, Employers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Boston College, Service, Federal Reserve, FwdBonds, Economic Policy Institute, Federal, Vanguard, Boeing

☆ Stock market next week: Investors wonder what's to come after tumultuous October start
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks struggled this week as rising tensions in the Middle East set off the strongest rally in oil prices since March 2023. "The stock market has been living up to October's reputation of increased volatility," said Glen Smith, chief investment officer at GDS Wealth Management. Inflation report, Fed minutes on deck In the week ahead, investors will keep an eye on a couple of potential catalysts. On Wednesday, investors will parse minutes from September's central bank gathering for insights into the future path of monetary policy. "I would say the inflation report is probably less important than it used to be," Dickson said.

Persons: Stocks, Glen Smith, Said, Mike Dickson, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli, Investment's Dickson, It's, Dickson, Wells, John Williams, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, GDS Wealth Management, Federal, Horizon Investments, CNBC Pro, Independent, Alliance, PepsiCo, Delta, JPMorgan Chase, PepsiCO, New York Fed, PPI, University of Michigan, BlackRock, Bank of NY Mellon, JPMorgan Locations: White, Wells Fargo, Fastenal, Wells

☆ These are the most important stocks in the U.S., according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Pia Singh | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

There are several key stocks in the U.S. investors need to be mindful of when navigating the current market environment, according to Bank of America. To capture the momentum from this rally, Bank of America screened for the most important stocks in each region of the world — including the U.S. — that have the potential to have the largest impact on portfolio performance, positive or negative. Bank of America found these stocks to be among the most important in the U.S.: Chipmaker Nvidia and oil and gas giant Exxon Mobil ranked fairly high on the firm's steady compounders list within the screen. Meta's shares are up nearly 64% year to date. Other stocks considered the most important names in the U.S. include rideshare company Uber and pharma name Eli Lilly .

Persons: Nigel Tupper, Vivek Arya's, Metaverse, Justin Post, Eli Lilly Organizations: Bank of America, Investment, U.S, Nvidia, Exxon Mobil, Exxon, Meta, Bank of America's, Uber Locations: U.S, Lebanon, Thursday's

☆ Interpreting the jobs data: No more half-point rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Fred Imbert | Kavitha Shastry | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. economy added a whopping 254,000 jobs in September, nearly 100,000 more than economists expected. The unemployment rate, which was expected to hold steady at 4.2%, slipped to 4.1%. Wages also rose more than expected month over month. To be sure, the new data also has traders pricing a smaller quarter percentage point interest rate reduction at the central bank's November meeting. "Fed cuts should be slower and I continue to think (and the data supports it) that the current neutral rate is well above 3% (economy chugging along on 5% yields for over a year)," said Tchir.

Persons: Sonu Varghese, Glen Smith, Lindsay Rosner, Ian Lyngen, Peter Tchir Organizations: Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal, Carson Group, GDS Wealth, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, BMO Capital Markets, Academy Securities Locations: U.S

☆ Comgest: 'no real need' for Bank of Japan to adjust monetary policy
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailComgest: 'no real need' for Bank of Japan to adjust monetary policyRichard Kaye of Comgest believes that monetary policy from the Bank of Japan will remain accommodative since inflation remains well controlled. He maintains that the strength of Japan's economy lies in its small companies, and hopes for potential reforms to ease succession planning in these companies.

Persons: Richard Kaye, Comgest Organizations: Bank of Japan, Bank of Locations: Bank of Japan

☆ The European Central Bank is facing a 'catch-22' when it comes to interest rate cuts, Allianz economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe European Central Bank is facing a 'catch-22' when it comes to interest rate cuts, Allianz economist saysLudovic Subran, chief economist at Alliaz, says the "situational crisis" in the Middle East and how central banks manage the descent of interest rates are the two main concerns that could impact monetary policy.

Persons: Ludovic Subran Organizations: European Central Bank, Allianz

☆ Friday’s jobs report could be the last normal one for a while
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

CNN —September’s jobs report, due out Friday morning, is expected to show that the US labor market has slowed somewhat but remains on solid footing. While September’s employment data is expected to stay relatively tame, the same can’t be said for the October jobs report, which is set to be released on November 1, just days before the presidential election. The strikes and hurricane-related effects “are not going to permanently alter the trajectory of the labor market; but September is probably our last clean reading on the labor market for a while,” Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, told CNN earlier this week. The August jobs report, which showed better-than-expected estimated 142,000 payroll gains and a drop in the unemployment rate, went a long way to quell those fears. It showed that the jobs market is in “stasis,” Wells Fargo economists wrote in a note issued Tuesday.

Persons: bode, Lydia Boussour, ” Ryan Sweet, Helene, ”, Erica Groshen, They’ve, “, Andrew Challenger, Wells, Noah Yosif, ’ Sweet, Ejindu Ume, “ We’re, ” Ume Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Boeing, Gulf Coasts, Oxford Economics, of Labor Statistics, Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Employers, Challenger, Labor Department, Pantheon, Labor, BLS, “, American Staffing Association, Oxford, Miami University in Locations: EY, Hurricane, East, Gulf, Miami University in Ohio

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