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☆ Fed's Logan supports slower rate hike pace, possibly higher stopping point
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"If you’re on a road trip and you encounter foggy weather or a dangerous highway, it’s a good idea to slow down. "That’s why I supported the (Fed's) decision last month to reduce the pace of rate increases. And the same considerations suggest slowing the pace further at the upcoming meeting." With so much unknown about 2023, she said, the Fed should not "lock in" on a peak policy rate but instead stay flexible by increasing rates in smaller increments. Inflation by the Fed's preferred gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, has averaged 5.8% at an annual rate for the past two years.

☆ Fed policymakers call for further rate hikes to beat inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Howard Schneider | Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

(Reuters) -Federal Reserve policymakers on Wednesday signaled they will push on with more interest rate hikes, with several supporting a top policy rate of at least 5% even as inflation shows signs of having peaked and economic activity is slowing. REUTERS/Jason Reed“I just think we need to keep going, and we’ll discuss at the meeting how much to do,” Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in an interview with the Associated Press. The remarks appeared to reflect a widely shared view among her fellow policymakers, most of whom as of December had penciled in a 5.00%-5.25% policy rate in coming months. Mester said that for her part she expects the Fed’s policy rate to need to go “a bit higher” than that, and stay there for some time to further slow inflation. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan also supports a slower rate hike pace ahead because of the uncertain outlook and the need to be flexible.

☆ Treasury yields fall as traders assess data, Fed outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Wednesday as uncertainty around the outlook for monetary policy and the economy, along with some weak earnings reports from Wall Street, clouded risk sentiment. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell just over 5 percentage points to 3.4812% while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond shed around 4 percentage points to 3.6069%. Stocks sold off on Tuesday and futures pointed to further declines on Wall Street after Goldman Sachs missed earnings expectations on the back of a drop in investment banking and asset management revenues. Four Federal Reserve officials are set to deliver speeches Wednesday: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. Auctions will be held Wednesday for $36 billion of 17-week Treasury bills and $12 billion of 20-year bonds.

☆ Corporate profit reports in the week ahead could show whether there's an 'earnings recession'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Investors in the week ahead will focus on how much inflation and the slowing economy have chiseled away at corporate profits, as companies including Goldman Sachs , Netflix and Procter & Gamble report earnings. "This is going to be the start of the clock ticking on an earnings recession," said Amanda Agati, chief investment officer of PNC Asset Management Group. Economic recession talk heats up "There's never been a recession without an earnings recession since World War II," Agati said. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial, said this coming earnings week could be an important step towards assessing the health of corporate balance sheets. Week ahead calendar Monday Martin Luther King Jr. Day Markets closed Tuesday Earnings: Goldman Sachs , Morgan Stanley , Citizens Financial, United Airlines, Interactive Brokers 8:30 a.m.

☆ Marketmind: Stop making sense
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/4] The Federal Reserve building is seen in Washington, U.S., January 26, 2022. "It makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down," Powell said. Perhaps not, but markets are moving ahead with an assumption we're nearly there. European futures indicate stocks in the region will spike higher, tracking Asian equities, which were tracking Wall Street. "To promote wage growth, the BOJ needs to patiently maintain its current monetary easing."

☆ Economist Austan Goolsbee named next Chicago Fed president
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Economist Austan Goolsbee will take over as president of the Chicago Federal Reserve early next year as the central bank weighs critical policy moves ahead, according to an announcement Thursday. "Austan is an exceptional choice to be the next president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Goolsbee comes to the Chicago Fed at a sensitive time for the central bank. A Chicago Fed release announcing the appointment said the new district president is "a leading empirical economist" whose research spans a wide variety of topics. Goolsbee called the Chicago Fed "one of the crown jewels" of the central bank system.

☆ Morning Bid: Powell clears the decks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Intended or not, investors clearly read Wednesday's keynote speech by the Federal Reserve chair as a green light for a yearend relief rally in beaten down assets. On the face of it, Fed chief Jerome Powell merely confirmed what most had already assumed - that the Fed would downshift the size of its interest rate rises to half a point next month. The upshot is that markets have dragged their implied peak Fed rate next year back below 5% and continue to price up to half a point of cuts by the end of 2023. Core PCE inflation numbers are due later and another barrage of Fed speakers to hold Powell's take up to the light.

☆ Goldman Sachs breaks down an options trading strategy with an 18-year track record of adding income to investors' portfolios — and recommends making these 4 trades now
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

As markets weather volatility, the investment bank recommends options trades with these 4 stocks. In a recent note to clients, Goldman Sachs breaks down this options trading strategy that the investment bank says has an 18-year track record of adding extra income to investors' pockets. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research"These strategies have become increasingly popular among investors, especially given the prospects of flat to negative equity markets. For short-term overwriting options trades, the note focuses on three factors when choosing an "attractive" stock: events, implied volatility, and market cap of the company. "We have found that overwriting stocks with these characteristics has added over 500 bps over the past 16 years," the note said.

☆ Wall Street ends sharply higher on sign of cooling inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Noel Randewich | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

One-time Wall Street darlings tarnished in 2022's bear market were among Thursday's strongest performers, with Nvidia (NVDA.O) jumping about 14%, Meta Platforms (META.O) climbing 10% and Alphabet (GOOGL.O) rising 7.6%. Growing recession worries have hammered Wall Street this year. The S&P 500 (.SPX) remains down about 17% year to date, and it is on course for its biggest annual decline since 2008. S&P 500's busiest tradesThe S&P 500 climbed 5.54% to end the session at 3,956.31 points. All 11 S&P 500 sector indexes rallied, led by information technology (.SPLRCT), up 8.33%, followed by a 7.74% gain in real estate (.SPLRCR).

In the Treasuries market the yield on the 2-year note , the maturity most sensitive to Fed rate expectations, dropped by nearly 20 basis points, the most in one day since June. And traders in futures contracts tied to the Fed's benchmark rate show traders now expect the blistering pace of policy tightening to slow next month. Rate futures contracts are now pricing in a top policy rate in the 4.75%-5% range next March -- lower than the 5%-plus range seen before the report -- and interest-rate cuts in the second half of the year. Continued high inflation for services, possibly reflecting labor markets that remain tight, could prevent any quick resolution of the overall inflation problem. Speaking after the report, Philadelphia Fed president Patrick Harker indicated his support for slowing rate hikes and then stopping, perhaps even earlier than markets are now pricing in.

☆ Fed's Logan: Inflation data a 'welcome relief,' still long way to go
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The closely watched inflation data, released earlier on Thursday, provides support for the central bank to dial back its hefty rate hikes, and Logan also backed such an approach. The Fed's rate-setting committee "should adjust other elements of policy to deliver appropriately tight conditions even as the pace slows. We must remain firmly committed to our 2% inflation goal," Logan said. "So far, I believe we are seeing a normal financial market response to tighter monetary policy," Logan noted. Nevertheless, it is important to remain attentive to any unexpected responses to further policy tightening, Logan said.

☆ Morning Bid: Red wave
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The "red wave", however, showed up in markets. The S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 2% on Wednesday and the dollar seemed to catch a bid from a wave of cryptocurrency selling. Bonds rallied with the risk-averse mood, which opens the door for disappointment as U.S. inflation data comes into focus later on Thursday. Share markets fell around Asia, with MSCI's broadest ex-Japan index (.MIAPJ0000PUS) down 1%. European futures fell 0.6%.

☆ Morning Bid: Consumer inflation, crypto deflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Annual consumer price rises are expected to have eased back a touch last month to 8.0%, the lowest since February, with core inflation rates ticking lower to 6.5%. Falling used car prices, one aggravator of inflation indices over the past year, will be watched closely - as will the relative calm in oil prices. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said it's "entirely premature" to discuss any pivot away from the Fed's current policy course. Broader markets were steady to negative around the world, mostly in a holding pattern ahead of the inflation report. The United States and China also laid out markers this week ahead of an expected meeting between their presidents at the summit.

☆ Midterms could be a positive catalyst for stocks as investors await next big inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

There are two big hurdles for markets in the week ahead - another potentially hot consumer inflation report and the Congressional midterm elections. "100% of the time, the S & P 500 has been up 12 months after the midterm election." Midterm rallies Stocks tend to gain in the final months of midterm election years, and strategists have been expecting the market to move higher. CFRA Chief Market Strategist Sam Stovall said even when interest rates are climbing, the midterm election has been a catalyst for stocks. He examined market performance in other midterm election years when interest rates were going up.

☆ Forget a soft landing. The market’s best hope is a ‘growth’ recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

It wants to achieve a soft landing — that Goldilocks ideal of cooling the economy enough to bring down prices but not enough to cause a recession. The new aim appears to be for a so-called growth recession: A prolonged period of meager growth and rising unemployment. The pain is sharper and lasts longer than that of a soft landing, but a “growth” recession doesn’t pull the entire economy into contraction the way a proper recession would. It looks like a recession, and feels like a recession, but it isn’t a recession — at least not officially. A growth recession is still painful.

☆ Stocks could continue skittish trading until interest rate move calms down
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The S & P 500, Dow and Nasdaq were all down sharply for the week. The S & P was down 4.6%, ending the week at 3,693. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard , St. Louis Fed President James Bullard , San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman are among the speakers. Other global central banks joined the Fed in raising rates, and interest rates around the world rose in tandem. If those levels break, the S & P could touch 3,385 before the selling is over, he said.

☆ Here's everything the Federal Reserve is expected to do today
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Construction workers outside the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Building, photographed on Wednesday, July 27, 2022 in Washington, DC. Kent Nishimura | Los Angeles Times | Getty ImagesThere's not a lot of mystery surrounding Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, with markets widely expecting the central bank to approve its third consecutive three-quarter point interest rate hike. That's the highest the fed funds rate has been since early 2008. Economic outlook: Part of this week's meeting will see Fed officials issue a quarterly update of their interest rate and economic outlook. Powell presser: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold his usual news conference following the conclusion of the two-day meeting.

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