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☆ Here's why the US avoiding a recession would actually be a 'treacherous' scenario for the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US avoiding a recession could actually be horrible for stocks, TS Lombard said. That's because the Fed would likely keep interest rates high in a "no landing" scenario, weighing on equities. That's because the Federal Reserve would likely keep interest rates high, whereas central bankers have traditionally cut interest rates by at least 200 basis points when faced with a recession, strategists said. Though most analysts have forecasted interest rates reaching 5% this year, rates could soar to 6.5% if the US avoids a recession, strategists estimated. For its part, TS Lombard believes the US could enter a mild recession by mid-year, echoing forecasts from other Wall Street analysts.

The biggest question in world finance right now is whether the eye-watering rebound in borrowing rates we've seen over the past month is just another overshoot - or the new reality. G7 2-year yields soarFed, ECB and BoE 'terminal rates' riseWorld economy surprising in 2023LOSING THE PLOTSince the middle of last year, futures markets have consistently priced peak Fed rates below where Fed officials themselves were guiding. But for at least six of the past nine months, futures markets priced a lower terminal rate than the central Fed view. Five-year equivalents have risen sharply too, while long-term euro zone inflation swaps are pricing the highest rates in more than a decade. The outcome is "strongly bimodal", they said, and either a recession hits and rates are cut, or it doesn't and rates go to 6.5%.

☆ A year later, the Fed still has a long way to go in the fight against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The rate hikes appeared to have quelled some of the inflation surge that inspired the policy tightening. Indeed, Fed officials for months stuck to the narrative that inflation was "transitory" and would abate on its own. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently insisted that he and his colleagues are taking "forceful steps" now to bring down inflation. The index most recently showed an annual inflation rate of 6.4%, down from a peak around 9% in the summer of 2022. Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst thinks the Fed could tame key inflation metrics to around 4% by the end of this year.

☆ We need to accept short-term pain for a brighter economic future, investment manager says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe need to accept short-term pain for a brighter economic future, investment manager saysNathalia Barazal, co-head at Lombard Odier Investment Managers, discusses the Federal Reserve's mission to fight inflation.

☆ Analysis: Boom in European bank earnings hints at a rally with legs
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The euro zone is expected to stagnate rather than contract, while cost of borrowing is still rising. The European Central Bank's campaign to raise interest rates as it fights to bring inflation back to its 2% target has been a boon for euro zone lenders. In the meantime, euro zone lenders' earnings per share (EPS) have surged to their highest since the global financial crisis in 2008. In the United State, where the rate cycle is more advanced, there's less potential for earnings upgrades at this point, she said. Earnings euro zone banks($1 = 0.9408 euros)Reporting by Joice Alves and additional reporting by Samuel Indyk in London; editing by Amanda Cooper and Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Markets bracing for 'no landing' world economy scenario curb risk appetite
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Markets, bracing for a “no landing” scenario where global economic growth is resilient and inflation stays higher for longer, are dialling back appetite for both risk assets and government debt. But recent data reflecting still tight jobs markets has traders entertaining a new scenario where economic growth holds up and inflation remains sticky. “We’ve gone from softer landing to no landing - no landing being that (financing) conditions will remain tight,” said David Katimbo-Mugwanya, head of fixed income at EdenTree Asset Management. GOODBYE RECESSION RISK? Graphic: Economic growth forecasts turn high hereEuro zone recession expectations mostly faded in mid January as energy prices tumbled.

But recent data reflecting still tight jobs markets has traders entertaining a new scenario where economic growth holds up and inflation remains sticky. World stocks hit one-month lows on Wednesday, while Wall Street had its worst day of the year so far on Tuesday. "We've gone from softer landing to no landing - no landing being that (financing) conditions will remain tight," said David Katimbo-Mugwanya, head of fixed income at EdenTree Asset Management. Bond prices fall, and yields rise, when expectations of higher rates on cash make their fixed interest payments less appealing. Reuters GraphicsEuro zone recession expectations mostly faded in mid January as energy prices tumbled.

☆ China has U-turned on almost all major policies it put in place in the last 3 years — and it's not surprising, given the state of its economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

But the country reversed some major policies in response to the abysmal GDP growth. China's GDP grew by 3% in 2022 — the worst since the chaotic Cultural Revolution ended. Most recently, after three years of pandemic lockdowns and isolation, China abruptly reversed course and abolished its zero-COVID policy — leaving the world guessing why. China's GDP grew only 3.0% in 2022 — the worst in nearly half a century since the chaotic Cultural Revolution ended. China's GDP growth is vital because it is the world's second-largest economy after the US, so it's a driving force for global investment and trade.

☆ Russia's budget deficit has surged. But economists say Moscow won't drain its war chest any time soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

However, both the Russian finance ministry and the central bank maintain that all of this is within their models. Christopher Granville, managing director of global political research at TS Lombard, noted two further factors distorting the most recent deficit figures. watch nowThe actual Urals price dived as a result, averaging just $46.8 per barrel during the period from mid-December to mid-January, according to the Russian finance ministry. The finance ministry also flagged massive advance payments for state procurement in January, which totaled five times those of January 2022. "Also, it has plans to issue debt, but this can only be done domestically so it's like a closed circuit — Russian banks buying debt from the Russian state, etcetera etcetera.

☆ We're focused on the 'quality part' of the tech sector, says Swiss private bank
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're focused on the 'quality part' of the tech sector, says Swiss private bankStephane Monier of Lombard Odier says that's because "we still think there is a chance of a recession."

☆ China keeps insisting its real-estate market is not in a crisis — even as just about every sign points to the opposite
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The IMF said in a report on China's economy that the country's property crisis remains "unresolved." But China's hit back at that, saying its property market "has been operating smoothly in general, and is not in a 'crisis' situation." China's real estate market has been mired in debt woes for the past few years. The IMF says China's property crisis "intensified" in 2022The IMF said in its Friday report China's property crisis "intensified" in 2022. The debt crisis also had a deep social impact.

☆ India Vs China: Adani Selloff Clouds India Just As China Reopens
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A crisis at the Adani Group is clouding over India just as China reopens. A US short seller report alleging market manipulation and fraud at the Adani Group has caused a market rout. The Adani Group has been defending itself vigorously, but Hindenburg has also doubled down on its initial report. Still, the development has rattled investor confidence, causing a market rout with listed companies under the Adani Group losing over $100 billion in market value so far this year. But, the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite have recovered somewhat this year after China emerged from on-off pandemic lockdowns.

Foreign investors, many of them already underweight what they consider an overpriced stock market, are reducing exposure. "Only Adani Group is trading with these ridiculously high multiples, and that is the core of the problem." "At this point in time, I don’t think it’s a systemic risk," said Jimmy Lim, chief investment officer at Modular Asset Management in Singapore. "We don't think that there's going to be a default anytime soon, although I don't expect any kind of near-term resolution between Adani Group and Hindenburg," Chao said. Yet Chao expects the selloff to help bring Indian stock valuations to more "palatable levels" for investors.

☆ It's been a very bad month for Indian billionaires — four of the richest Indians have collectively lost about $45 billion in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Indian billionaires are leading losses on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index so far this year. That's on the back of a massive selloff in Adani Group's listed businesses and the broader Indian market. Adani's listed companies have come under significant pressure following a short-seller attack. The Adani Group has been defending itself vigorously, but Hindenburg's also doubling down on it's initial report. Trailing Adani on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index are fellow Indian billionaires Mukesh Ambani, Radhakishan Damani, and Savitri Jindal, who have lost about $5 billion, $2 billion, and $1 billion so far this year.

European stocks have vastly outperformed their U.S. peers. The euro STOXX (.STOXXE) benchmark has beaten its U.S. peer, the S&P 500 (.SPX), by over 18 percentage points since September. "It's a very big move in European gas prices and that has dramatically improved the outlook. "Lower gas prices are surely a positive, but their rapid fall also tell us that they can rise just as fast should things go wrong. A closely watched index of European corporate credit (.MERER00) has seen its yield fall nearly 50 basis points this year.

☆ Lombard Odier on the 'complete transformation' of our economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLombard Odier's head of sustainability research on the 'transformation of our entire economy'Thomas Hohne-Sparborth made his comments during a CNBC panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

☆ When it comes to the energy transition, one analyst sees the market making a big mistake
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Anmar Frangoul | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Thomas Hohne-Sparborth, head of sustainability research at Lombard Odier, highlighted the huge shifts taking place in the field of low and zero-carbon technologies and, by extension, wider society. "We've seen past industrial revolutions, including past energy transitions," Hohne-Sparborth said. We were, Hohne-Sparborth said, "looking at investment needs in the trillions of dollars." When it comes to the energy transition, the sums being discussed are indeed significant. Last year, the International Energy Agency's "World Energy Outlook 2022" report said clean energy investment could be on course to exceed $2 trillion per year by 2030, an increase of over 50% compared to today.

☆ Analyst talks clean energy, the pace of change and lessons the market can learn from history
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAnalyst talks clean energy, the pace of change and lessons the market can learn from historyThomas Hohne-Sparborth, head of sustainability research at Lombard Odier, made his comments during a CNBC panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

The FTSE 100 (.FTSE) ended up 0.2% at 7,860.07, not far off its all-time high of 7,903.50 points hit in May 2018, while the mid-cap FTSE 250 (.FTMC) added 0.7%. "Investors appear to have fallen back in love with UK assets," said Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown. Money markets are pricing in a 64.3% chance of a 50-basis point hike by the BoE in February to curtail inflation. Oil majors BP (BP.L) and Shell (SHEL.L) slipped close to 0.4% each as crude prices fell. ITM Power (ITM.L) slumped 12% after the energy storage and clean fuel company forecast a wider full-year loss.

Far from ignoring Lula's challenges to control the risks of this institutional shock, investors and analysts said however that the focus remains on fiscal issues when assessing the new government in the long term. If the new parameters are considered weak by the market, it could renew fears of fiscal dominance and prevent the BCB from easing." Discussions of the new fiscal framework are key under Lula's administration, after policymakers have highlighted inflationary risks arising from leftist President-elect's 168 billion reais ($32 billion) spending proposal to meet campaign promises. "The unsettled and deeply divided political environment and related high social tension keeps risk premia high and could undermine overall governability." (.JPMEGDBRAR)A mobilized opposition with the "potential to turn violent" is the main conclusion from Sunday's protests for the political risk advisory Eurasia Group.

Brazil's real , snapped a three-day winning run, last down 0.4% after falling over 1% earlier in the day. A central bank survey on Monday showed Brazil's inflation and interest rate expectations for the year had risen. While most other Latin American currencies also fell, underperforming broader emerging market peers, Chile's peso rose 0.8% as copper prices hit six-month highs. Data showed Chile posted a trade surplus of $1.85 billion in the month, up from a $417 million surplus in December 2021. Data showed Mexico's headline inflation ended 2022 slightly below analysts' expectations, while core inflation appeared to have lost steam.

☆ Geodis’s Marie-Christine Lombard Sees Global Forces Continuing to Reshape Trade Flows
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( Paul Berger | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +6 min

Newsletter Sign-up The Logistics Report Top news and in-depth analysis on the world of logistics, from supply chain to transport and technology. MS. LOMBARD: The supply chain used to be quite seamless and fluid. The world order has a huge impact on the supply chain and its stability. The difference is that the supply chain itself was not disrupted. The entire supply chain is being rethought and recalibrated and re-costed.

☆ How to play the Fed's moves in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHow to play the Fed's moves in 2023Sammy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier, discusses what the U.S. Federal Reserve might do in 2023 and how investors should be positioned.

"After Ever Happy" is now available to rent or buy from digital retailers like Amazon. The romance movie is based on the fourth book in the "After" series by author Anna Todd. Where to watch 'After Ever Happy'"After Every Happy" is now available to watch at home through digital retailers like Amazon and Vudu. Is 'After Ever Happy' available on Blu-ray? "After Every Happy" is based on the fourth book in the "After" novel series created by author Anna Todd.

The region-wide STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed 1.7% higher, with consumer discretionary firms such as Adidas (ADSGn.DE) and Puma (PUMG.DE) leading gains after U.S. peer Nike beat quarterly revenue and profit expectations. Shares of Adidas and Puma rose 6.8% and 9.5%, respectively, while London-listed JD Sports (JD.L) jumped 6.1%, lifting the retail index (.SXRP). The euro STOXX 50 volatility index (.V2TX) hit its lowest level since January, reflecting easing anxiety among investors. British retailers also reported a surprise pick-up in demand in December, a Confederation of British Industry survey showed. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar and Bansari Mayur Kamdar; editing by Uttaresh.V, Saumyadeb Chakrabarty and Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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