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☆ Bank of Japan set to keep ultra-low rates, may signal inflation overshoot
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-11 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Visitors are seen at the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 17, 2023. Ueda told parliament on Friday that corporate price-setting behaviour was showing changes that could work to push up inflation more than expected. While the BOJ will not produce fresh inflation forecasts next week, it may signal that inflation is overshooting initial projections - possibly at Ueda's post-meeting briefing, the sources said. "The BOJ must be vigilant to both the risk of an inflation overshoot, and the risk of a deep overseas slump hitting Japan's economy." With droves of companies continuing to hike prices, the BOJ is widely expected to upgrade its inflation forecasts at its next quarterly review in July, analysts say.

Persons: Issei Kato, BOJ, Ueda, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Kim Coghill Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO

☆ BOJ's Ueda flags shift in corporate pricing, upward inflation bias
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

However, he stressed anew the central bank's resolve to keep monetary policy ultra-loose, to ensure companies raise wages enough to more than offset the burden on households from rising inflation. "There's still some distance to sustainably and stably achieve our 2% inflation target. As such, we will patiently maintain our monetary easing policy," Ueda told parliament. By supporting the economy, the central bank aims to generate a positive cycle in which inflation-adjusted wages will start increasing, he added. The central bank will scrutinise various data in producing fresh quarterly inflation forecasts in July, he added.

Persons: Ueda, Kazuo Ueda, There's, Leika Kihara, Christopher Cushing, Sam Holmes, Sonali Paul Organizations: Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Ueda TOKYO

☆ BOJ set to keep ultra-low rates, may signal inflation overshoot
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Persons: Issei Kato, BOJ, Ueda, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Kim Coghill Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO

☆ Analysis: Trauma of Japan's deflation battle keeps BOJ wary of policy shift
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Having taken part in Japan's battle with deflation as BOJ board member from 1998 to 2005, Ueda knows all too well the danger of a premature exit from ultra-loose policy. Wary of a wobbly recovery, he opposed the BOJ's decision in 2000 to raise short-term rates to 0.25% from zero. On the surface, conditions for phasing out a portion of the BOJ's massive stimulus appear to be falling in shape. To be sure, Ueda has left scope to tweak YCC in case inflation continues to overshoot the BOJ's forecasts. In a group interview last month, Ueda said the BOJ could tweak YCC "if the balance between the benefit and cost of our policy shifts."

Persons: Ueda, Kazuo Ueda, Haruhiko Kuroda, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Companies, Thomson Locations: Japan, Tokyo, TOKYO, U.S, China

☆ Japan central bank's ETF holdings under scrutiny as govt seeks revenue
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Due to Japan's ageing population, people aged 60 years or more hold roughly 60% of total household financial assets. "The government must look into whether it's permissible to buy (the BOJ's ETF holdings) at book value for the purpose of securing sources of revenue," Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki told parliament. The BOJ's ETF holdings as of March 2023 stood at 37 trillion yen ($265.75 billion) in book value, and 53 trillion yen in market value, according to the central bank's earnings data. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told the same parliament session that it was premature to debate specifics on how the central bank could unload its ETF holdings. Ueda also said that in principle, the central bank plans to sell the ETFs at market value, instead of book value.

Persons: Fumio Kishida, Shunichi Suzuki, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Leika Kihara, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Finance, Thomson Locations: TOKYO

☆ BOJ's Ueda keeps free hand, says no time frame for achieving price goal
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The BOJ's target remained elusive until last year, when supply constraints and a spike in commodity costs caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine drove up Japan's core consumer inflation near 4%. "The time it takes for the impact of monetary policy to appear on the economy could move around a lot depending on circumstances. We therefore do not have any time frame in mind," Ueda said on Friday. Given it will take more time to achieve our price target, we will maintain the easy policy," he said, when asked by an opposition lawmaker on the likelihood of selling the BOJ's holdings. "Given uncertainty over the outlook, clarifying a set time frame for achieving our price target could have unexpected impact on financial markets," Ueda said.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Haruhiko Kuroda, Ueda, We'll, Leika Kihara, Chang, Ran Kim, Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Bank of Japan, Monetary, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Ukraine

☆ IMF urges BOJ to keep ultra-low rates, but be ready to shift course
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It won't happen overnight" as the public must be convinced Japan won't fall back to deflation, Gourinchas said, adding it was "too early" for the BOJ to tighten policy. While it was appropriate to keep interest rates ultra-low, the BOJ must keep in mind the experience of other central banks that are still struggling to tame high inflation. So, there is a need to be vigilant and to be ready to tighten monetary policy if inflation remains too elevated." He also said it would be "very difficult" to tighten monetary policy while maintaining YCC, due to the challenge of determining the appropriate level for two rate targets. And then, if the need arises to tighten monetary policy, it can do so as part of the usual tightening of the policy rate," he said.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Monetary Fund's, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Japan, TOKYO

☆ Asia's factories struggle for momentum amid patchy recovery
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The PMI surveys suggest that China's economic recovery was still ongoing in May, albeit at a slower pace. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in May from 49.5 in April, above the 50-point index mark that separates growth from contraction. Vietnam, Malaysia and Taiwan also saw factory activity shrink in May, while that of the Philippines expanded, the surveys showed. Asia's economy is heavily reliant on the strength of China's recovery, which has been uneven with services spending outperforming activity in export-oriented sectors. In forecasts released in May, the International Monetary Fund said it expects Asia's economy to expand 4.6% this year after a 3.8% gain in 2022, contributing around 70% of global growth.

Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Wang Zhe, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: PMI, Capital Economics, P Global, Caixin Insight, Jibun, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, TOKYO, China, Japan, Asia, South, Malaysia, Philippines

☆ Forward guidance could become trap for central banks-economist
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

But by incentivising central banks to commit to keep rates low for long, forward guidance becomes a constraint when they need to swiftly tighten policy to rein in inflation, he said. "Recent experience suggests forward guidance can become a trap," Orphanides said. "Compared to forward guidance, clearer communication of a central bank's reaction function would avoid the trap and improve policy outcomes," he added. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who was present at the conference, said the very nature of forward guidance meant central banks took the risk of falling behind the curve whenever they were using the tool. Central banks around the world followed in the footsteps of the BOJ in introducing unconventional monetary easing steps, including forward guidance, to combat the 2007-2008 global financial crisis.

Persons: Athanasios Orphanides, Orphanides, it's, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Bank of Japan, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Central, United States, Europe

"We expect inflation to quite clearly slow below 2%" toward the middle of the current fiscal year, Ueda told parliament. "Inflation is likely to rebound thereafter ... though there is high uncertainty" on the outlook, he added. Positive signs included a likely big increase in pay in this year's annual wage negotiations, which could help shake off Japan's deflationary mindset. The BOJ will review its quarterly growth and inflation forecasts at the July 27-28 policy meeting. Reporting by Leika Kihara and Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman & Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ BOJ's Ueda vows to maintain easy policy, rules out chance of early exit
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The recent rise in Japanese inflation above the BOJ's 2% target is driven mostly by cost-push factors rather than strong domestic demand, Ueda said, adding that responding to such price increases with tighter monetary policy would hurt the economy. "The cost of prematurely shifting policy, and nipping the bud towards achieving 2% inflation, is extremely large," Ueda said. "It's appropriate to take time judging (when to) tweak ultra-easy policy toward a future exit." The remarks came in the wake of data showing Japan's core consumer inflation hit 3.4% in April, staying well above the BOJ's 2% target, on rising food and services prices. Instead of focusing only on the side effects, the BOJ must carefully weigh the balance between the benefits and costs of its measures in determining policy, Ueda said.

☆ Academics weigh in on how BOJ's Ueda can exit easy policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

At the meeting on Monday, Ueda - himself a Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)-educated academic - said the BOJ will maintain ultra-loose policy as it would take time for inflation to sustainably hit its 2% target, the minutes showed. Keeping long-term interest rates low for too long would also expose Japan to speculative market attack, Kiyotaki said. University of Tokyo professor Tsutomu Watanabe said Japan's inflation expectations have heightened to levels close to those in the United States and Europe, the minutes showed. But Shinichi Fukuda, also an University of Tokyo academic, said achieving wage growth alone won't fix economic woes. "Japan is no longer in a state of deflation thanks to the BOJ's extraordinary monetary easing.

☆ Japan's core CPI rises 3.4% in April yr/yr - govt
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

TOKYO, May 19 (Reuters) - Japan's core consumer prices rose 3.4% in April from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday. The increase in the core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes energy costs, matched a median market forecast and followed a 3.1% rise in March. Reporting by Takahiko Wada and Leika Kihara; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Services inflation accelerated to 1.7% in April from 1.5% in March, the data showed, suggesting that rising labour costs may be starting to feed into broader consumer inflation. "Given stubborn food price pressures, we now expect underlying inflation to peak at 4.5% by mid-year," said Darren Tay, Japan economist at Capital Economics. "But the inflationary cycle is probably at its tail end - producer price inflation has fallen significantly over the past three months. Ueda has stressed the need to keep monetary policy ultra-loose until inflation is sustainably around 2% and accompanied by wage hikes. He has also said Japan's core consumer inflation will slow back below 2% toward the latter half of the current fiscal year ending in March 2024.

It will be a tug-of-war between robust domestic demand and sluggish exports," he said. The growth followed a 0.1% fall in the final quarter of last year, which was revised down from a 0.1% rise. Japan economy expands more than expectedPrivate consumption, which makes up more than half the economy, grew 0.6% in January-March from the previous quarter, as the country's re-opening from the pandemic boosted service spending. The strength in domestic demand offset weakness in exports, which slumped 4.2% in January-March, marking the first decline in six quarters. External demand, or net exports, shaved 0.3% percentage point off gross domestic product (GDP), highlighting the strain on manufacturers from slowing overseas growth.

☆ Japan's wholesale inflation slows, may ease pressure on BOJ
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The data may diminish market expectations that broadening inflationary pressure will prod the Bank of Japan to seek an early exit from ultra-low interest rates. "Having said that, we'll likely see price growth slow as import-driven inflationary pressure is already subsiding." Analysts are closely watching moves in wholesale prices, considered a leading indicator of consumer price trends, for clues on whether consumer inflation will heighten enough for the BOJ to phase out its massive stimulus. Japan's core consumer inflation hit 3.1% in March and an index excluding fuel costs rose at the fastest annual pace in four decades in a sign of broadening price pressure. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has said the central bank will keep monetary policy ultra-loose unless the recent rise in consumer inflation is driven more by robust domestic demand, and accompanied by higher wage growth.

☆ Japan April wholesale prices rise 5.8%, but pace slows for 4th straight month
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

TOKYO, May 15 (Reuters) - Japan's wholesale prices rose 5.8% in April from a year earlier, but the pace slowed for the fourth straight month, data showed on Monday, suggesting that consumer inflation will begin to moderate as cost-push pressures ease. The rise in the corporate goods price index (CGPI), which measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services, followed a 7.4% annual increase in March. The yen-denominated import price index fell 2.9% in April from a year earlier after a revised 9.6% gain in March, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) data showed, a sign the cost of importing fuel and raw material was peaking. The data underscores the BOJ's view that core consumer inflation will likely begin to slow later this year as the effect of past spikes in raw material costs begins to dissipate. Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

TOKYO, May 15 (Reuters) - A meeting of the government's top economic council on Monday focused on whether recent rises in inflation and wage growth suggest Japan is approaching a sustained exit from deflation. The fresh round of discussions between the government and central bank are looking at the role each should play in achieving sustained wage hikes, which would help reduce the risk of the country returning to deflation. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda spoke about the bank's resolve to patiently maintain ultra-loose monetary policy, according to presentation material released after the meeting. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said the government and BOJ need to coordinate closely given rising uncertainty over the economic outlook. "We're aiming to pull Japan out of deflation and achieve sustained, private demand-driven economic growth" by creating public perceptions that growth and inflation will keep rising, he said.

☆ Japan's Kishida to order assessment on wage outlook by govt, BOJ- Nikkei
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

TOKYO, May 14 (Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will issue an order on Monday for the government and the central bank to conduct an assessment on whether recent wage hikes would be sustainable, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Sunday. The assessment will focus on whether wealth is distributed in a way that allows households to weather the rising cost of living, and help sustainably achieve the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target, the paper said without citing sources. Kishida will issue the order at a meeting of the government's key economic council on Monday, and will consider having the council conduct a regular assessment on the wage outlook, the Nikkei said. The assessment will seek to clarify the role the government and the BOJ must play in achieving 2% inflation, and how they should respond when inflation accelerates, the paper said. Japan's core consumer inflation hit 3.1% in March, well above the BOJ's 2% target, as companies pass on rising raw material costs to households.

While the communique made no mention of the U.S. debt ceiling stalemate, it figured constantly in discussions. "We need to remain vigilant and stay agile and flexible in our macroeconomic policy amid heightened uncertainty about the global economic outlook," they added in the communique after the meeting. G7 central bank chiefs vowed to combat "elevated" inflation and ensure expectations on future price moves remained well-anchored, a sign many of them will not let their guard down against stubbornly high inflation. CHINA AND SUPPLY CHAINSSeeking to reassure investors after recent U.S. bank failures, the G7 finance chiefs retained an April assessment that the global financial system was "resilient". In the communique, the finance leaders set a year-end deadline for launching a new scheme to diversify global supply chains.

☆ G7 agreed global financial system resilient but needs vigilance, Japan finmin says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, Germany's Finance Minister Christian Lindner, Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt, Joachim Nagel, President of Germany's federal reserve... Read moreNIIGATA, Japan, May 13 (Reuters) - Finance ministers and central banks from the Group of Seven rich nations agreed the global financial system is resilient but the need for vigilance remains, Japan's finance minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Saturday. "We reaffirm that our financial system is resilient, supported by the financial regulatory reforms implemented after the 2008 global financial crisis, including considerable increases in the levels of bank capital and liquidity, an international framework for effectively resolving failing institutions, and strengthened cross-border regulatory and supervisory cooperation," it said. British finance minister Jeremy Hunt told reporters at a separate event that G7 finance chiefs in Japan had "very frank and open discussions" about the challenges they face, including banking regulation. The ministers have wrapped up a three-day meeting in the Japanese city of Niigata. Reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto and Leika Kihara; Writing by David Dolan Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ G7 central banks see need to weigh effects of past rate hikes -BOJ's Ueda
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NIIGATA, Japan, May 13 (Reuters) - Many central bank governors from the Group of Seven (G7) rich nations appeared to feel the impact of past interest rate hikes has yet to show fully as they look to guide future monetary policy, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Saturday. "Participants seemed to share the understanding that the effect of past interest rate hikes has yet to fully show on their economies and inflation, and could begin to appear more ahead," Ueda told a news conference after the gathering. "Many said they wanted to guide monetary policy, taking that point in mind," he added. "I told the G7 meeting that Japan is maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy to sustainably and stably achieve the BOJ's 2% inflation target," he said. Ueda and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki spoke at the news conference as Japan is the chair of this year's G7 finance leaders' gathering in Niigata, which concluded on Saturday.

☆ G7 to vow diversifying of supply chains, filling bank regulatory gaps -draft
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In the draft communique, the G7 central banks said they remained "strongly committed" to achieving price stability and ensuring inflation expectations stayed well-anchored. "Diversification of supply chains can contribute to safeguarding energy security and help us to maintain macroeconomic stability," the draft communique said. But it said G7 countries will work to ensure foreign investment in critical infrastructure "does not undermine the economic sovereignty of host countries." On banking-system woes, the draft communique said the financial system was resilient due to regulatory reforms implemented after the 2008 global financial crisis. "We will address data, supervisory, and regulatory gaps in the banking system," the draft communique said.

Summary Biden warns of U.S. recession unless ceiling raised quicklyChina's slowing inflation adds to global recession fearsG7 finance leaders kick off meeting in Niigata, JapanNIIGATA, Japan, May 11 (Reuters) - A standoff over raising the U.S. debt ceiling overshadowed a meeting of Group of Seven (G7) finance leaders set to begin on Thursday, heightening U.S. recession fears as central banks seek a soft landing for the global economy. The U.S. debt crisis is a headache for Japan, which is this year's G7 chair and the world's biggest holder of U.S. debt. Japan's top financial diplomat, Masato Kanda, said on Tuesday the G7 finance leaders might discuss the U.S. debt ceiling but likely would not explicitly mention it in a joint statement at the end of the meeting on Saturday. Past U.S. debt ceiling fights have typically ended with a hastily arranged agreement in the final hours of negotiations, avoiding an unprecedented default. Back then, the G7 finance leaders said in a statement that they were "committed to addressing the tensions stemming from the current challenges on our fiscal deficits, debt and growth."

☆ BOJ debated progress in hitting price goal at Ueda's debut meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

TOKYO, May 11 (Reuters) - Some Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymakers saw the country making progress towards sustainably hitting the bank's 2% inflation target, a summary of opinions at its April meeting - the first one to be chaired by governor Kazuo Ueda - showed on Thursday. "Japan's economy is showing signs of achieving a positive cycle of (rising) wages and inflation. The BOJ needs to judge the trend accurately, so its policy response doesn't end up being behind the curve," one opinion showed. The members agreed on the need to keep monetary policy ultra-loose for the time being due to uncertainty over the overseas economic outlook and whether recent wage hikes will be sustained beyond next year, the summary showed. Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Sandra MalerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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