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'Everything is fine' at Credit Suisse, according to Saudi National Bank chairman Ammar Al Khudairy. Saudi National Bank insisted that raising its stake above 10% is a red line for regulatory reasons. "It's panic, a little bit of panic, I believe completely unwarranted, whether it be for Credit Suisse or for the entire market." But Al Khudairy has insisted that raising Saudi National Bank's stake above 10% is a red line primarily because of regulatory reasons. There has been no discussions whatsoever since October about Credit Suisse needing more capital or requiring assistance," Al Khudairy said.
Morning Bid: Swiss lifeline, ECB dilemma
  + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
The Swiss lender said it would exercise an option to borrow from its central bank up to 50 billion Swiss francs ($54 billion). That followed assurances from Swiss authorities on Wednesday the country's second largest bank met "the capital and liquidity requirements imposed on systemically important banks". Policymakers and regulators across Europe and Asia rushed to reassure the public and markets that banks in their jurisdictions were safe and well-capitalised. Like other central banks, the ECB has been raising interest rates rapidly to curb inflation and has since July tightened credit at its fastest pace on record. As it stands, money markets now price an 80% chance the ECB will move tentatively and only hike by a quarter point to 2.75%.
Credit Suisse shares tumbled more than 25% on Wednesday as fears grew of a banking crisis. Here's a closer look at why Credit Suisse is worrying investors. The latest slump in Credit Suisse stock can partly be explained by recent events in the US banking industry. Credit Suisse CEO Ulrich Koerner has also faced questions about his plans to cut costs, staunch losses, and turn around his company. There's no clear reason to believe Credit Suisse is at risk of failure.
There are four differences between the current banking crisis and the GFC, Moody's chief economist says. Zandi's comments adds to views that the current banking crisis is different from the situation in 2008. In a series of tweets on Monday, Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said the current banking crisis is different from the Global Financial Crisis, or GFC, in four key ways. The financial crisis, which sparked the Great Recession, was one of the worst economic downturns in US history. The economic backdrop is different this time aroundZandi also said the economic backdrop right now is very different from that of the Great Financial Crisis.
BERLIN, March 14 (Reuters) - European banks are not completely in the clear after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVBV.UL) and Signature Bank (SBNY.O) even though they do not face a systemic risk, the president of German economic research group DIW said on Tuesday. But he said many European banks were also facing this issue. "We have to be very careful," Fratzscher said, adding that German banks haven't fully recovered from the 2008 financial crisis initiated by the fall of Lehman Brothers, which had "systemic meaning" and caused a domino effect. "We don't see that in the case of SVB, which is relatively small," he said. Reporting by Maria Martinez; Editing by Miranda Murray and Alison WilliamsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Credit Suisse chairman Axel Lehmann took a pass on a $1.6 million award and saw a pay cut. In its delayed annual report, the Swiss bank said it "identified material weaknesses" in its financial reporting. Lehmann, who started his position last January, waived his chair fee of 1.5 million Swiss francs ($1.6 million) that is typically awarded to board members on top of their salaries, according to Credit Suisse's compensation report. The lender will also cut his salary for 2023-2024 to 3.8 million Swiss francs from an earlier projection of 4.5 million francs, according to the report. "We have identified material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting as of December 31, 2022 and 2021," the annual report said.
Investors reeled in their expectations for global central bank rate hikes, and bank stocks tumbled once again. Reuters GraphicsIn the money markets, a closely watched indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking system edged up on Monday, as did other indicators of credit risk in the euro zone. The gap between two-year euro swap rates and two-year German bond yields , widened by around 20 basis points to 83 basis points, to the highest since Nov. 11. Reuters GraphicsIn Germany, two-year bond yields dropped more than 50 basis points, much more than a drop of 37 basis points on swap rates. Back in late 2008, when failed investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed, this swap rate went as negative as 300 bps.
Investors reeled in their expectations for global central bank rate hikes, and bank stocks tumbled once again. Reuters GraphicsIn the money markets, a closely watched indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking system edged up on Monday, as did other indicators of credit risk in the euro zone. The gap between two-year euro swap rates and two-year German bond yields , widened by around 20 basis points to 83 basis points, to the highest since Nov. 11. Reuters GraphicsIn Germany, two-year bond yields were last down over 40 basis points, much more than a drop of 24 basis points on swap rates. Back in late 2008, when failed investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed, this swap rate went as negative as 300 bps.
Responding to SVB’s failure, the central bank promised to make available additional liquidity to banks and other deposit-taking institutions. By reassuring depositors, the central bank aims to prevent runs on other institutions and contagion through the financial system. And by promising to buy high-quality assets at face value, the central bank is trying to forestall a fire sale that could depress valuations and become self-reinforcing. POLICY AND SUPERVISIONThe central bank’s intervention has highlighted the complex interaction between monetary policy and bank supervision. But given the spillovers between monetary policy and supervision, the offer of additional liquidity is probably not enough to insulate monetary policy from financial stability considerations.
Those with money at the bank will have full access starting Monday. The Treasury Department designated both SVB and Signature as systemic risks, giving it authority to unwind both institutions in a way that it said "fully protects all depositors." The Fed facility will offer loans of up to one year to banks, saving associations, credit unions and other institutions. The SVB failure was the nation's largest collapse of a financial institution since Washington Mutual went under in 2008. Authorities had spent the weekend looking for a larger institution to buy SVB, but came up short.
The three banks that failed this year were worth more in inflation-adjusted assets than the 25 that collapsed in 2008. Before Silicon Valley Bank, the last bank to fail was in late 2020, as the coronavirus was ravaging the country. First Republic Bank ranks 14th, Silicon Valley Bank ranks 16th and Signature Bank ranks 29th. Silicon Valley Bank’s chief executive, Greg Becker, was a strong supporter of the move. In a review of the Fed’s oversight of Silicon Valley Bank released on Friday, Michael S. Barr, the central bank’s vice chair for supervision, said the Fed would “re-evaluate” its rules for banks that were similar in size to Silicon Valley Bank.
Billionaire investor Bill Ackman posted a lengthy tweet about the Silicon Valley Bank collapse Saturday. Ackman criticized the response of the federal government and its lack of monitoring SVB for risk. He said the government has "about 48 hours to fix a-soon-to-be-irreversible mistake" with its handling of SVB. "The gov't has about 48 hours to fix a-soon-to-be-irreversible mistake," Ackman tweeted in a lengthy post Saturday morning. In Ackman's view, this could lead to the collapse of several other smaller banks around the country.
Paul Krugman said SVB maybe should have been called the "Schmoozing and Vibes Bank." As far as I can tell, it was just unusually good at cultivating relationships with, um, Silicon Valley, specifically VC," Krugman said. "Maybe it should have been called Schmoozing and Vibes Bank." While this created huge problems for SVB, Krugman believed there was little chance of contagion to other banks. The Nobel Prize-winning economist said he did worry about the effects of SVB's collapse on the broader VC ecosystem.
The charts suggest that breaking the December low in the S & P 500 around 3765 – down just 2.5% from here – would lose the bullish case a lot more credibility than has been surrendered so far. Of course, fears of contagion can outrun the facts and sometimes can become self-fulfilling, but the S & P 500 has (for now) simply backslid to a nine-week low. Jason Hunter, technical strategist at JP Morgan, had been expecting "a weakening corporate earnings environment would eventually take the narrative away from the Fed driven rates market. In the past week Apple shares lost about a third of what the S & P 500 did. Inflation has been at generational highs for two years as it was not then, and the labor market wasn't nearly as tight.
'Big Short' legend Michael Burry just compared Silicon Valley Bank to Enron. The bank's stock plunged 60% Thursday as its parent company offloaded shares after massive bond losses. "It is possible today we found our Enron," the 'Big Short' investor said Thursday in a now-deleted Tweet, referencing the scandal-hit energy firm that collapsed during the early 2000s. Enron collapsed as the dot-com bubble burst in the early 2000s, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index plunging 78% in just over two years. The bank's updated investor deck, which was filed Wednesday, showed that the company's $21 billion bond portfolio had a yield of 1.8% and an average duration of just over three years.
The Second-Biggest Bank Failure
  + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Karl Russell | Christine Zhang | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +5 min
A bar chart of U.S. bank failures since 2001, showing that Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse was the second-biggest in U.S. history in terms of assets. Before Silicon Valley Bank, the last firm to fail was in late 2020, as the coronavirus was ravaging the country. It’s unclear whether the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will spread to the broader industry. Silicon Valley Bank 209 17. Silicon Valley Bank 209 Fifth Third Bank 17.
Nikolas Kokovlis | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesVenture capitalists and technology executives are scrambling to make sense and account for the potential repercussions of the sudden implosion of Silicon Valley Bank on Friday. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said Friday that U.S. federal regulators shut down Silicon Valley Bank , the premiere financial institution for Silicon Valley tech startups for the past 40 years. On Friday, Yang returned to the Silicon Valley Bank branch 15 minutes before it opened to remove the remaining money. One person showed a tweet on their phone suggesting that bank employees had been instructed not to come to work. Watch: CEO's react to the closure of Silicon Valley Bank
March 10 (Reuters) - The chief executive officer of failed Silicon Valley Bank, Greg Becker, is no longer on the board of directors at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The spokesperson declined to say how Becker exited the San Francisco Fed board. Becker served as a Class A director at the San Francisco Fed, one of three finance executives representing member banks in the San Francisco Fed district. The 12 regional Federal Reserve banks are quasi-private institutions overseen by the Fed in Washington. The directors of the Fed banks have been in the spotlight in recent years as the central bank has faced criticism that bank directors lacked racial and gender diversity and were too weighted towards the business and banking community.
NEW YORK, March 9 (Reuters) - A New York judge rejected a bid by the former Lehman Brothers' bankrupt European unit to claw back $485 million from bond insurer Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO.N) over transactions that were canceled amid the global financial crisis. In a decision on Wednesday, Justice Melissa Crane of a New York state court in Manhattan said Assured's AG Financial Products unit instead deserved to recover about $20 million from Lehman Brothers International (Europe). "Meanwhile, Assured's valuation was reasonable and calculated in good faith." The Sept. 15, 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc - once Wall Street's fourth-largest investment bank - was one of the major triggers of that year's financial crisis. The case is Lehman Brothers International (Europe) v. AG Financial Products Inc, New York State Supreme Court, New York County, No.
US stocks could plummet as much as 30% over the next two months, Larry McDonald said. "The Bear Trap Report" founder sees higher interest rates choking demand and hammering the economy. McDonald also predicts investors will swap stocks for bonds to earn higher yields. McDonald estimated that every 1% increase in rates translates into a $50 billion rise in costs for middle-class Americans. He noted that interest rates on US auto loans are approaching 14%, and nearly 20% of those loans cost over $1,000 each month.
Credit Suisse has delayed filing its annual report after a call from the US financial watchdog. "Management believes it is prudent to briefly delay the publication of its accounts in order to understand more thoroughly the comments received," Credit Suisse said. Credit Suisse ADRs have plunged 61% over the past year, with a restructuring plan announced on October 27 also failing to reassure markets of the bank's resilience. The SEC's late call isn't Credit Suisse's only regulatory worry. Read more: Credit Suisse is fending off concerns about its financial health, fanning fears of another Lehman Brothers moment that could roil the global financial system.
The move also marked the beginning of a new way to manage endowment funds. The arrangement has been a boon for the hedge-fund managers who received university endowment cash, but the benefits for the schools are trickier to parse. As Eaton put it in his book, universities directed funds to "wherever those allocations would generate the largest further investment returns." Eaton estimated in 2017 that tax breaks for university endowments cost federal coffers up to $19 billion a year. As the influence of billionaires and hedge-fund managers has grown, universities have moved further away from their ultimate goal: educating people.
As if the universe knew that I hadn't written a crypto newsletter in some time, here we go: Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, has been under some scrutiny this week. The world's largest crypto exchange reportedly transferred nearly $1.8 billion in stablecoin collateral to hedge funds, the report said. Any move by Binance to shuffle customer money around isn't exactly illegal, but the risks are apparent in the wake of the FTX disaster, part of which involved the exchange using customer money for making big bets via its affiliated trading arm. That account, Reuters reported, was used to send $400 million to a trading firm managed by Zhao. In other news:Traders work on the main trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange March 21, 2007.
Revisiting JPMorgan’s innovative Cazenove deal
  + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Peter Thal Larsen | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
JPMorgan avoided most of these problems by structuring its deal as a joint venture with Cazenove. Though the corporate entity called JPMorgan Cazenove was quietly wound down a few years ago, the name still graces the U.S. group’s UK banking business. At the time of the JPMorgan deal, Cazenove acted as broker to almost half of the companies in the FTSE 100 Index (.FTSE). By 2009, the enlarged business reported a pre-tax profit of 280 million pounds. The Cazenove deal still stands as a case study of how to buy an investment bank without destroying it.
Today's Fed minutes release should provide more insight on what's to come in March. So according to Wilson, stocks have entered this death zone after climbing too high too fast in hopes the Federal Reserve is about to pull back on its aggressive monetary policy. He's reiterated several times this year that the rally will lose steam, and he expects sticky inflation to push the Fed to hold interest rates higher for longer. The bank's analysts now see the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in June, which would bring the terminal rate to a target range of 5.25-5.5%. "As [stocks] have reached even higher levels, there is now talk of a "no landing" scenario – whatever that means," Wilson noted.
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