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☆ Data-hungry AI models could help Reddit valuation
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Anita Ramaswamy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Reddit’s data, as it benefits AI models, may be just the catalyst that it needs. Reddit plans to introduce a new revenue stream to supplement what it already earns from advertising. While Alphabet, say, won’t want to sell data to Microsoft, Reddit is going to be willing to create a competitive market. And on that basis, it would need to get just 40 customers to nearly double the $350 million revenue it made in 2021. It would take some mind-bending when Reddit tries sell shares to public investors.

☆ AT&T’s magic number falls short
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

To do that, it needs free cash flow. AT&T, which makes most of its money from cellular customers, added 424,000 postpaid phone subscribers, above expectations, according to Reuters. Some of the issue is seasonal, with payments to phone vendors up after a busy holiday season of selling devices. But dividend payouts totaled 200% of cash flow, up from 133% a year ago. Those payments totaled $1.3 billion this quarter, meaning cash flow would be negative without them.

☆ David’s needs bachelorettes, not just brides
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, April 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) - With marriage rates on the decline, David’s Bridal has once again tied itself in a knot. Last time this happened in 2018, David’s courted a group of lenders led by Oaktree to save it. loadingFunding for nuptial-related companies has been on the decline since, as has business at David’s. Modern brides are opting for cheaper casual and secondhand dresses over fancy getups, but they appear more reticent to compromise on pre-wedding soirees. It suggests perhaps that David's fresh start should embrace an old saying, with a twist: always the bachelorette, never the bride.

☆ Real estate warning: beware the backward cap
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Lauren Silva Laughlin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The commercial real estate industry has a different kind of backward cap – one that’s also a sign of a losing streak. The cap rate comes from dividing a property’s net operating income in any given year – money from rent minus associated costs – by the asset’s value. For more than 10 years, that gap remained positive even though cap rates were falling in virtually all real estate subsectors, from shopping malls to apartments. Reuters GraphicsAsk a large-scale real estate owner – or several – about this and they are characteristically optimistic. Reuters GraphicsWhen Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, the narrowed spread between cap rates and interest costs didn’t last for long.

☆ J&J’s sweetened talc settlement still unsettling
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Robert Cyran | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) is trying a little harder to settle claims that its talc harmed users. The tactic, known as the Texas Two-Step, creates a subsidiary under Texas law which allows what’s called non-divisive mergers. That gets it closer to a threshold that could be enough for a bankruptcy judge to approve the settlement. CONTEXT NEWSJohnson & Johnson said on April 4 that its subsidiary LTL Management had re-filed for bankruptcy in an effort to settle claims that sales of products containing talc harmed users. The new unit then declares bankruptcy, and the legal claims are settled in bankruptcy court.

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☆ How FDIC dropped the ball and picked up the tab
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Bank watchdogs don’t have a crystal ball when it comes to spotting bank runs. The FDIC is one of several agencies that watches over American banks, but it’s the one that picks up the tab when a lender fails. Gruenberg, on the FDIC board since 2005, did not support the rapid phased prototyping data project, fretting that it amounted to outsourcing supervision, according to people familiar with the situation. For all but the biggest banks, the FDIC continues to rely on quarterly snapshots known as “call reports,” and the findings of its on-the-ground inspectors. Reuters GraphicsThe death of the 2020 project – and the fact it didn’t start years sooner – reflect deeper challenges at the FDIC.

☆ DeSantis wins with Disney co-dependency
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - For Walt Disney (DIS.N) Chief Executive Bob Iger, action speaks louder than words. During the Magic Kingdom’s annual shareholder meeting on Monday, Iger took a shot at Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, calling him “anti-business” for his retaliation involving Disney World. DeSantis, for those keeping score, signed a law in February that gives Florida control of Disney’s theme park district, stripping some of its autonomy. The irony is that Iger plans to shower Florida with $17 billion over the next 10 years, he said at the meeting. Iger’s decision to plow more money into Florida only tethers him more to DeSantis’ whims.

☆ Icahn and Khan make for odd bedfellows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Case in point is Illumina (ILMN.O), which on Monday was ordered by the Federal Trade Commission, led by Chair Lina Khan, to unwind its $7 billion acquisition of Grail (GRAL.O). This puts Khan on the same side as Carl Icahn, who wants Illumina to ditch the deal for seemingly opposite reasons. Illumina makes DNA sequencing machines used in medical research. The commission believes Illumina could use its dominance in DNA sequencing to hurt Grail’s competitors and raise prices. Icahn, on the other hand, worries Grail is burning Illumina’s cash, and this hurts the parent firm’s effort to keep ahead of rivals.

☆ Breakingviews: Trump charges could leave important fish unfried
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Lauren Silva Laughlin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Money markets and currencies were unmoved on Friday morning after a grand jury’s decision to press criminal charges was announced on Thursday night. While pressing charges against a former leader can amount to a dangerous political tool if used frivolously, it also shows that future American leaders are not immune to criminal charges, creating an extra incentive for them to behave. But moments of high political drama make politicians run to their corners of the boxing ring. Follow @thereallsl on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSFormer U.S. President Donald Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury on March 30 and is expected to face criminal charges next week. The poll found 46% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters support Trump, while 32% support Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

☆ Another cultish cost-saving formula gets off-track
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Jeffrey Goldfarb | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

Despite its multiple interpretations and approaches, success is widely gauged by a railway’s operating ratio, a simple measure of how much it spends to make a buck. Union Pacific’s peers improved similarly, indicative of the antiquated ways the industry had been deploying resources. Union Pacific also found itself unable to bring back enough furloughed workers in areas where they were most needed. “In a significant departure from the railroad industry's recent past, we deliberately moved away from a singular focus on operating ratio,” he told lawmakers. “If we wanted to drive [operating ratio] lower over time, we could,” the board wrote in a letter to shareholders in late 2021.

☆ Powell is leader of the free world – for now
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Lauren Silva Laughlin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

As former President Donald Trump will attest, Powell will do what he thinks it’s right. This month, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, a left-wing firebrand, went on TV and called Powell a “dangerous man,” saying she doesn’t think that he should be Fed Chair. CNN television host Jake Tapper asked her if she had told Biden that Powell should be fired. Then Trump called Powell “a golfer who can’t putt, has no touch.” Trump wanted economic growth. Powell resisted and later responded saying that the Fed chair, more than anyone else, needs to be free from political pressures.

☆ Musk’s Twitter markdown falls short of the mark
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Lauren Silva Laughlin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The billionaire owner of Twitter has offered stock grants to the social media app’s shrunken staff at a valuation of about $20 billion, less than half the price he paid in October. In fact, based on Twitter’s operating performance, the effects of leverage and public market comparisons, the equity is probably worthless. Net out $13 billion of debt, as of January, and equity holders are left with just over $20 billion, or about the figure reported over the weekend by The Information. First, Twitter wasn’t generating consistent earnings before Musk bought it, and so it’s hard to believe it’s doing so now. Back out the debt and the equity is less than zero, assuming their cash position hasn’t meaningfully changed.

☆ Bitcoin is a solution looking for a problem
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Anita Ramaswamy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Since his Miami proclamations, bitcoin’s price has fallen by nearly 40%, though in the last few weeks after Silicon Valley Bank’s failure it has had a resurgence. At first glance, his prediction seems wildly optimistic but directionally reasonable – bitcoin has surged by over 35% since SVB’s collapse on March 10. What’s more, bitcoin may never have surpassed $60,000 to reach its highest-ever price level in 2021 had the Fed not kept interest rates consistently low. It’s the prospect of lower rates – not the lack of government stability – that is opening the door to riskier bets like those on bitcoin. Gold is a tangible asset, unlike bitcoin, and that’s precisely what makes it an inflation hedge.

☆ Trustbusters pick fight that can make friends
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

CHICAGO, March 24 (Reuters Breakingviews) - After a year of fighting losing battles, one of the United States’ biggest trustbusters is taking on a fight where it will be easy to find support. The Federal Trade Commission proposed new rules on Thursday that would make canceling subscriptions less burdensome for consumers. That’s in stark contrast to the complex, lengthy and occasionally contentious — and unsuccessful — antitrust fights the commission had been waging. The agency is seeking a rule change, not a legal fight. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Market nerves tie US rate-setters’ hands
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

On Wednesday the central bank raised interest rates a quarter point. The failure of Silicon Valley Bank nearly two weeks ago upended the U.S. financial system, and the Fed and other agencies have had to provide a steadying hand. But by Wednesday morning, just before the central bank’s decision, the futures market was mostly pricing in a 25 basis point hike. Futures contracts tracking the central bank’s benchmark rate have also been shaky. Wall Street reforms passed in 2010 crystallized the central bank's duty to foster a stable financial system.

☆ GameStop surge ignores basic rule of value
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, March 22 (Reuters Breakingviews) - GameStop (GME.N) investors sent the company’s shares up 40% on Wednesday morning after fourth-quarter results showed it had swung to a net profit. That suggests the company that counts Chewy Founder Ryan Cohen as its chair has put some of its meme-fueled fundraising to use. Unfortunately, investors have forgotten that with such a surge, GameStop will have to grow into a new valuation. The chain reported net profit of $48 million compared with a loss of $148 million in the same quarter a year ago. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ All’s fair in love and stablecoins
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, March 22 (Reuters Breakingviews) - If a stablecoin isn’t first, it’s last, as Circle has learned this month. The company that issues USDC lost its peg to the dollar earlier this month because of worries about the $3.3 billion it held at Silicon Valley Bank. Though Circle recovered the funds from the bank, customers pulled $6 billion from it, according to Bloomberg. Circle Chief Executive Jeremy Allaire, in contrast, does regular rounds in Washington and has argued for regulation. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Benefits of US political accord accrue to TikTok
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Jennifer Saba | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, March 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - TikTok has one incentive to keep American politicians united. As Chief Executive Shou Zi Chew goes in front of Congress this week, he might remember that benefits can accrue to him if representatives remain cooperative. TikTok will be working to persuade American politicians that citizens’ data is protected, but in reality it will be difficult for the country to ban the app outright. So in some ways, political cohesion is good for TikTok. TikTok may not want to cause trouble in Washington, but it benefits so long as Democrats and Republicans agree.

☆ Biden to designate two new national monuments, in Nevada and Texas
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Emma Newburger | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A wind and snow storm builds along the mountains of the Spirit Mountain Wilderness as viewed from Highway 163 on March 10, 2021 in Laughlin, Nevada. The Biden administration on Tuesday will establish two new national monuments in the Southwest, a decision that will protect the Spirit Mountain area in Nevada and Castner Range in Texas from development. The proclamations are part of the administration's commitment to protect one-third of the country's lands and waters by 2030. The Spirit Mountain area, also known as Avi Kwa Ame, would be the largest protected area under the administration so far and only the second monument designated to honor Indigenous tribes while conserving public land. Avi Kwa Ame is considered sacred by tribes including Mojave, Chemehuevi and Paiute.

☆ Credit Suisse bump trade looks over-optimistic
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Investors in Credit Suisse’s bombed-out stock are getting a little ahead of themselves. At that level, they’re 7% above the implied value of UBS’s offer, and a wider 13% using the lenders’ U.S.-listed shares, which trade until later in the day. That deal, like UBS’s rescue of Credit Suisse, was also a government-arranged attempt to prop up an ailing bank. Unlike Credit Suisse, Bear Stearns’ shareholders got a vote, giving them leverage to argue for a higher price. Credit Suisse shareholders have little left but hope.

☆ Ryan Reynolds flexes as corporate convert
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - For Hollywood star Ryan Reynolds, dealmaking may be more lucrative than Deadpool. One more transaction like this, and Reynolds could find that he has a real future outside of the acting biz. For Mint, Reynolds has described the marketing strategy as “scrappy”, and he has done some catchy things, like appearing alongside T-Mobile’s chief executive in a video announcing the deal and leaving voicemails for customers. Showing success outside of the lifestyle category – in mobile – is validation for the actor, but a differentiating factor might have been Reynolds’ ownership stake in Mint. Converting that stake into a lucrative deal, twice, suggests that Reynolds could be more than just a pretty face.

☆ FedEx delivers, for now
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TORONTO, March 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - FedEx (FDX.N) is delivering a timely package to investors. FedEx is expecting to cut its U.S. headcount by some 25,000 year-over-year, by the end of this fiscal year. This division is also the largest by revenue, but it benefits greatly from scale. Operating margins dropped in the quarter to 1% from 4.6% as sales fell. Despite the fact that revenue fell in both the Freight and Ground divisions, those groups' operating margins grew.

☆ Larry Fink finds way to dodge ESG crosshairs
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, March 15 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Seismic events elsewhere are making it easier for BlackRock (BLK.N) to inch away from the environmental, social and governance crosshairs. The $8 trillion asset manager’s chair Larry Fink used his annual investor letter to theorise that inflation might stay around 4%, predict stricter bank capital requirements, and namecheck his favourite 80’s band, Talk Talk. BlackRock still backs these objectives, but Fink’s 2023 letter doesn’t even mention ESG. The good news for Fink is that U.S. banking collapses and spiralling inflation mean his detractors’ attention is, at least for now, elsewhere. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Mark Zuckerberg takes on Elon Musk
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Mark Zuckerberg is eyeing Elon Musk’s turf. Meta Platforms (META.O) is exploring a stand-alone social network for sharing text updates, according to a statement from the social media network to Breakingviews on Monday. The move makes sense since Facebook and Instagram have done a better job wringing money from their users than Twitter has. Since Musk bought Twitter in October 2022, the network has been plagued by technical difficulties and fleeing advertisers. Zuckerberg has a business model that knows how to monetize users, whereas Twitter is still figuring that out.

☆ Ritchie founder perfects disappointed dad routine
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The company stretching for its acquisition has done something worse: It disappointed dad. Ritchie investors are expected to approve the fiercely contested deal on Tuesday, a surprising outcome, especially to company co-founder David Ritchie. The pair didn’t speak out before because they assumed, given the weight of opposition to the deal, it was dead. If she succeeds, shareholders better hope her optimistic deal math holds up. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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