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☆ JPMorgan drops its recession call for the first half and now sees a 55% chance of a soft landing for the global economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

JPMorgan scrapped its recession forecast for the first half of 2024 and now sees 55% odds of a soft landing. The bank sees a 30% chance that global expansion persists without major policy easing. AdvertisementJPMorgan has backed off from its recession forecast for the first half of 2024 and says it now sees a 55% chance of a "soft landing" for the global economy through late next year. Related storiesBut now, with upbeat data painting a rosier picture, the bank sees a 55% chance of a soft landing scenario extending through at least the end of next year. On the earnings side, corporates in developed markets surpassed expectations last year, with margins holding close to record highs, demonstrating surprisingly resilient profitability despite high policy rates.

Persons: —, Bruce Kasman, Joseph Lupton, Kasman, Lupton, Jamie Dimon, Dimon Organizations: JPMorgan, Service

☆ Job growth zoomed in March as payrolls jumped by 303,000 and unemployment dropped to 3.8%
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Job creation in March easily topped expectations in a sign of continued acceleration for what has been a bustling and resilient labor market. The unemployment rate edged lower to 3.8%, as expected, even though the labor force participation rate moved higher to 62.7%, a gain of 0.2 percentage point from February. "This report and the February report showed some broadening in terms of job creation, which is a very good sign." Stocks have tumbled this week amid concerns that a strong labor market and resilient economy could keep the central bank on hold for longer than expected. Correction: The unemployment rate edged lower to 3.8%.

Persons: Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Lauren Goodwin, Jerome Powell Organizations: Dow, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wall, Retail, New York Life Investments, Federal Reserve, Stock

☆ Unemployment rate among Black Americans jumped in March, contrasting overall trends
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Lindsey Nicholson | Universal Images Group | Getty ImagesThe unemployment rate among Black Americans jumped in March, according to data released Friday by the Department of Labor. That's higher than the overall unemployment rate, which edged lower to 3.8% last month, as well as the 3.4% jobless rate for white Americans, which held steady from February. When accounting for gender, the unemployment rate for Black women aged 20 or older spiked to 5.6%, a big increase from the 4.4% rate in February. Gould pointed out that the unemployment rate for Black Americans has been steadily increasing since December. For Black women, the rate ticked lower to 63% from 63.4%, while it inched down to 69.6% from 69.8% among Black men.

Persons: Lindsey Nicholson, Black, Elise Gould, Gould Organizations: Universal, Getty, Black, Department of Labor, Economic, Institute Locations: Queens , New York

☆ March jobs report comes in hot: The US economy added 303,000 positions last month
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Instead, on Friday, yet another jobs report defied expectations. “Today’s jobs report raises the possibility that rather than slowing down, job growth might be holding steady,” Nick Bunker, Indeed Hiring Lab’s economic research director for North America, said in a statement. Last month’s job growth was driven by industries such as health care (+72,300 jobs); government (+71,000 jobs); leisure and hospitality (+49,000 jobs); and construction (+39,000 jobs). President Joe Biden touted March’s jobs report Friday. With today’s report of 303,000 new jobs in March, we have passed the milestone of 15 million jobs created since I took office.

Persons: Nick Bunker, Joe Biden, “, ” Biden, —, Greg Daco, ”, ” Daco, we’ve, Erica Groshen, ” Brett House, Daco, Price Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, North, ”, CNN Business, Cornell University, CNN, Brookings Institution, Congressional, Columbia Business School, Fed, Labor Locations: New York, North America, EY, United States

☆ Here's where the jobs are for March 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Health care and social assistance were the top sector for job gains — a common theme in recent years — adding 81,300 jobs. The U.S. labor market surprised economists with its strength once again, adding more than 300,000 jobs in March, with a few key sectors continuing to fuel its growth. Within health care, ambulatory services and hospitals combined to add 55,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that the labor force participation has changed little in the past year despite consistent upside surprises for job gains. It's been the key to rebalancing the labor market.

Persons: It's, we've, Stephanie Kelton Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics ., BLS, Labor Statistics, Brook University Locations: U.S

☆ The strong U.S. job market is in a ‘sweet spot,’ economists say
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The labor market has been resilient despite economic headwinds like higher interest rates. "There's still strong, broad-based job growth and real wage growth has been restored," Pollak said. The labor market is in a 'sweet spot'Employers added 303,000 jobs to payrolls in March, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Job growth in the first three months of 2024 — 274,000, on average — beats the 2019 pre-pandemic average by more than 100,000. "The labor market is settling into a sweet spot," said Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at job site Indeed.

Persons: Lindsey Nicholson, Julia Pollak, There's, Pollak, Nick Bunker Organizations: Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, North America Locations: Queens , New York, U.S

☆ What to expect from the March jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

ET, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its March jobs report. February brought the unemployment rate within spitting distance of 4%, rising to 3.9% from 3.7% in January. What could come from Friday’s jobs reportFebruary’s jobs report came as yet another surprise to economists. For instance, last month January’s job gains were revised down to 229,000 from the blowout 353,000 that kicked off 2024. The unemployment rate went up by half a percentage point from the post-pandemic low of 3.4% last April.

Persons: lockdowns, it’s, Michael Strain, ’, February’s, Andy Challenger, ”, Allison Joyce, Aaron Sojourner, they’ve, Sojourner, Luke Sharrett Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Enterprise Institute, BLS, Federal, US, Challenger, “, Department of Labor, Bloomberg, . Upjohn Institute, Employment Research, CNN, Federal Reserve, Getty Locations: New York, outplacement

☆ It’s jobs week. Here’s what to watch for
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Welcome to jobs week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that a weakening labor market would be a reason to reduce interest rates. It’s hard to imagine that this jobs report will substantially move the needle on Fed policy, said Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone. The Conference Board’s February Consumer Confidence survey found that “Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was more positive in March” than in previous months. The week ahead: While the main event this week is Friday’s jobs report, there’s plenty of other jobs data this week for traders to grab on to.

Persons: Jerome Powell, I’ll, nonfarm, ”, Dave Sekera, “, ‘, we’re, Goldman Sachs, Michael Brown, Powell, Brown, It’s, Donald Trump, Matt Egan, Trump, That’s, Natasha Chen Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Goldman, Labor, Stanford, Social, Trump Media & Technology Group, Trump Media Locations: New York, ”, California

☆ Chair Powell says the Fed isn’t more tolerant of higher inflation. Some economists disagree
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-31 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Some economists interpreted that as a sign that the Fed is now more tolerant of higher inflation. Powell pushed back on the perception that the central bank has grown more comfortable with inflation being higher for longer than expected in his post-meeting news conference. and my sense coming out of this month’s meeting was that Fed Chair Powell wants to get this easing cycle going sooner rather than later. What’s allowing the Fed to be patient or more tolerant of higher inflation? They’re willing to essentially look through some of the bumpiness in the inflation data at the beginning of the year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, That’s, Powell, “, ” Powell, “ We’re, Mohamed El, Erian, ”, Bell, Lydia Boussour, they’re, What’s, we’ve, Nathaniel Meyersohn, Read, Levi Strauss, Tupperware Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Financial Times, Fed, Home Depot, Home, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Maine Foods, Dave, Buster’s Entertainment, US Labor Department, US Commerce Department, Stanford University Locations: EY, Cal

☆ America's 'deskless' hourly wage workers will reveal the most about how AI changes jobs
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-30 | by ( Rachel Curry | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

In that majority lies a pressing question: How will the introduction of artificial intelligence impact hourly workers? 'Deskless workers' and technologyRegardless of the perspective, hourly workers and the people who manage them are actively seeking technology solutions to help streamline their workflow. For example, robotics-enabled sorting and small item picking is infiltrating the logistics industry, which is traditionally staffed by hourly workers on the warehouse floor. "This will be the decade of hourly workers that are focused on delivery of services that require human touch," she said. One thing that hourly workers, like all workers, aim for is a sense of meaning on the job.

Persons: Silvija Martincevic, Doug Hammond, Hammond, Martincevic, haven't, isn't, packer —, —, there's Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Industries, Randstad USA, Hardware, Bros, Organisation for Economic Co Locations: upskilling

☆ The benefit that pays for itself and increases worker productivity
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-29 | by ( Allie Kelly | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The organization advocates for company and government policy that supports working parents. All companies offered some form of childcare benefits — stipends, on-site care, or backup care. And, for each company, its annual net return for childcare benefits far outweighed the cost. But, when a company offers childcare benefits, retaining just 1% of eligible working parents could cover the price a company pays for those benefits, the study said. Childcare benefits boost employees' career prospects and earning potentialNot only do childcare benefits support a company's bottom line, but the study shows it improves the earning potential and career growth of individual employees.

Persons: —, it's Organizations: Service, Business, Companies, Bank of America, UPS

☆ Opinion: Why a booming economy isn’t helping Biden
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-24 | by ( Fareed Zakaria | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

It used to be that the public’s view of the president depended mostly on its view of the economy. Democrats who had previously thought the economy was in terrible shape now thought it was booming, and Republicans did the opposite. I argue in the book that it is identity — which encompasses culture, class and tribalism. And when people see their world in flux, they often move not left on economics but right on culture. The left needs to play more effectively on the new crossroads of politics, where culture and class have replaced economics.

Persons: Fareed Zakaria, Fareed, Read, Joe Biden’s, haywire, It’s, Nate Cohn, Barack Obama’s, Donald Trump, ’, Trump, Ronald Inglehart, —, Inglehart, John Burn, “ Organizations: CNN, Fareed’s, The New York Times, Immigration, Trump Locations: America, Sweden, Denmark, France, Austria, Germany, Japan, United States, Nigeria

☆ The Fed still probably isn't ready to give Americans the interest rate cuts they're hoping for
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Still, the door is open for rate cuts later in the year. AdvertisementThe nation's central bank is gearing up to make its second interest rate decision of the year, and it probably won't be the relief many Americans want to see. AdvertisementStill, while Americans may not see an interest rate cut this month, they could see one later on this year. But I still think interest rate cuts of one form or the other are likely this year." A group of Democratic lawmakers are also urging Powell to develop a timeline in which Americans can expect to see rate cuts.

Persons: Jerome Powell, —, Mark Hamrick, Hamrick, Powell, there's, we've, Nick Bunker, Julia Pollak, Pollak, Congressional Progressive Caucus — Organizations: Federal, Service, Fed, Financial Services Committee, North America, Democratic, Congressional Progressive Caucus

☆ He predicted the ’08 crash. Now he’s betting AI will turbocharge the US economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

AI chatbots can help workers brainstorm ideas, do research, write reports, build presentations, learn about new topics and identify patterns in vast troves of data. AI will ‘destroy’ some jobs, boost othersThere is also the very real risk that AI will replace some workers. AI might be able to help slow the rate of decay in the labor force,” Sangani said. “These workers will be supplemented, not replaced, by AI,” Sangani said, though he added there are also places where AI will replace workers. IMF warns AI could deepen inequalityEven if AI accelerates economic growth, there is no guarantee that everyone will benefit.

Persons: New York CNN — Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius, ” Hatzius, that’s, you’ll, ”, ” Satyen, ” Sangani, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, Treasury Department, IRS, Hatzius, International Monetary Fund Locations: New York, United States

☆ Surging immigration will boost the US labor force and send GDP higher, Goldman says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

"Elevated immigration has boosted labor force growth and, by extension, potential GDP growth," Goldman Sachs said. The bank boosted its 2024 GDP forecast in a note on Sunday, arguing that a jump in labor force growth via elevated immigration will drive the US economy higher. "Elevated immigration has boosted labor force growth and, by extension, potential GDP growth," Goldman Sachs said. Advertisement"We expect immigration to be about 1mn higher than usual this year, implying breakeven job growth of around 125k and a 0.3pp boost to potential GDP growth in 2024 from faster labor force growth," Walker said. Advertisement"Our estimates imply that above-trend immigration will boost potential GDP growth by 0.3pp in 2024.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, Ronnie Walker, Walker Organizations: Service Locations: America

☆ The 'feminization of wealth' is coming as the boomer wealth transfer boosts the economic power of women
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-16 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Of all the ways the baby boomer wealth transfer is expected to reshape everything from housing to the stock market, it could have another big impact: making women a lot wealthier. According to Ellevest, which focuses on wealth management and financial planning for women, a lot of it is going to be inherited by women in a shift the firm is calling the "feminization of wealth." For one, as women live longer than men, there's a shuffling of wealth from boomer husbands to their wives. In total, about $84 trillion is expected to be passed down to younger generations in the Great Wealth Transfer by 2045. As women control more wealth, those corners of the economy will adapt to their needs.

Persons: —, Sallie Krawcheck, Krawcheck, Tracy Bell, Bell, It's, Gen Organizations: Service, Boomers, Business, Bank of America, Contemporary, First Horizon, Bank of America Private Bank Locations: America

☆ What a Trump 2.0 Economy Would Look Like
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Tim Smart | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +10 min

Overall, the Biden economic plan draws less than favorable reviews from voters. So, too, are promises of more tax cuts and a sharp curtailment of immigration. Trump was upset in 2019 that Powell was not doing enough to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy. The Trump tax cuts are set to expire in 2025, giving a second Trump administration the opportunity to fight that battle again. “A Trump 2.0 presidency would inherit very large fiscal deficits from the Biden Administration, rising interest expenses and an economy probably more prone to bouts of inflation,” the report said.

Persons: Muhammad Ali, Joe Frazier, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Trump, There’s, ” Trump, it’s, ”, Patrick Horan, “, Tony Soprano, Patrick Kilbane, ” Kilbane, “ Trump, ” George Calhoun, Calhoun, ” Matt Gertken, Alex Nowrasteh, ” Michael Clemens, Clemens, Jerome Powell, Powell, Xi Jinping, Maria Bartiromo, reappoint Powell, Steve Mnuchin, ” Maxime Darmet, Darmet, Kevin McCarthy Organizations: Manila ”, Trump, CNBC, Monday, White, George Mason University, Ullmann Wealth Partners, Republican Party, Senate, Affordable, Quantitative, Stevens Institute of Technology, TikTok, Democratic, BCA Research, Labor, CATO Institute, Peterson Institute for International, University of Colorado, Federal Reserve, Federal, Biden, Fox Business, Trump Cabinet, House, Allianz Research, Biden Administration, U.S, Allianz Trade, Congress, GOP Locations: Manila, COVID, China, U.S, America, France

☆ What kind of 'Barbie' are you? Here are the Barbieland jobs that most real-life women hold, according to government data
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Ana Teresa Solá | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

In the "Barbie" movie, the narrator says, "Barbie has a great day every day." As women's participation in the labor force has increased over the years, the group continues to face hurdles along the way. "We have the tightest labor market for women in the past 20-something years," Bustamante said. "As the labor market gets tighter and tighter and tighter, women's employment rises faster than men's," Pollak said. "To think of just the scale of construction employment and women are still such a marginal piece of that sector," he said.

Persons: Margot Robbie, Barbie, Julia Pollak, R, Bustamante, Pollak, " Pollak Organizations: Mattel, Warner Bros, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Roosevelt Institute, Census, National Women's Law, Warner Brothers Pictures Locations: New York, U.S

☆ Undocumented immigrants are boosting the labor market and helping the US avoid recession, experts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Undocumented immigration has boosted the labor market, helping steer the US away from a recession, some experts say. Morgan Stanley's chief US economist has also recently cited undocumented immigration as a positive labor-market force. AdvertisementHere's a question that's been lurking beneath the stellar economic resilience in the US: how has the labor market stayed so strong? "It has boosted the labor force, it has boosted supply for labor, it has boosted job gains. AdvertisementThe labor market has recorded gains stronger than that, posting an addition of 275,000 jobs in February.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's, —, Wendy Edelberg, Tara Watson, Watson, Ellen Zentner, Zentner Organizations: Brookings Institution, Service, Congressional, Office, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bloomberg, Brookings

☆ Equal Pay Day highlights an up to $1.2 million salary shortfall for women of color
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Based on today's wage gap, a woman just starting out will lose $399,600 over a 40-year career, according to the National Women's Law Center. The pay gap worsens significantly for Black and Latina women. For Black women, the lifetime wage gap adds up to $884,800, and for Latina women, the losses total $1,218,000, the nonprofit advocacy group found. Why the gender pay gap persistsThere is no single explanation for why progress toward narrowing the pay gap has mostly stalled, according to a separate report by the Pew Research Center. What it takes to achieve progressNo "one thing" is going to close the wage gap, Tucker said.

Persons: Jasmine Tucker, Tucker, Ofronama Biu, Biu Organizations: Census, National Women's Law, National Women's, Center's, Black, Latina, Pew Research Center, Urban Institute, Employers

☆ The pandemic forced many women to leave their jobs. Hybrid work is bringing them back.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-10 | by ( Allie Kelly | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A rise in remote and hybrid jobs has allowed many women to seek higher-income roles. A narrowing of gender labor force gap since 2019 has added about $1.5 trillion to global income. Many women were forced to leave their jobs during the pandemic, thanks to poor market conditions and a rising need for childcare and older adult care. In the US, around 70% of working-age women participated in the labor force in 2020. Remote jobs also offer more flexibility.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, US Bureau of Labor, Statistics, Pew Research Center, European Union Locations: Australia, India, Japan

☆ Key takeaways from the latest jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

“The economy remains strong, held up by a robust labor market,” wrote Christopher Rupkey, chief economist with FwdBonds, in a note Friday. Still, Friday’s jobs report also showed that the whopping gains initially recorded for January and December were revised down by a combined 167,000 jobs. January’s job gains now sit at an estimated 229,000 (down from the blowout 353,000); and December’s job growth at 290,000 (down from 333,000). In February, that included construction (up 23,000 jobs); transportation and warehousing (up 19,700 jobs); and retail (up 18,700 jobs). Friday’s jobs report showed that wage growth is indeed slowing.

Persons: ”, Christopher Rupkey, FwdBonds, “, ” Robert Frick, —, ” Diane Swonk, Swonk, February’s, ” Frick, Julissa Carielo, ” Swonk, Gus Faucher, Lydia Boussour, EY, Boussour, Janet Yellen, CNN’s Kate Bolduan, they’re, ” Yellen, Price, CNN’s Bryan Mena Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, Navy Federal Credit Union, CNN, KPMG US, Health, Baby Boomers, Transportation Security Administration, DreamOn, Inc, Boomers, Fed, Labor, Federal, PNC Financial Services, “ Fed Locations: New York, San Antonio , Texas, Texas

☆ Zillow's chief economist says these 11 'pandemic-darling' cities are full of investor-friendly deals for both price appreciation and surging cash flow in the years ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: 1 min

Home prices in pandemic boomtowns have dropped since mid-2022, creating investment opportunities. Zillow Chief Economist Skylar Olsen says these markets are good for buying rental properties. The growing labor force in these cities should boost appreciation and cash flow for investors. But since mid-2022, prices have returned to earth in many cities. For real-estate investors, this means opportunity, according to Zillow Chief Economist Skylar Olsen.

Persons: Skylar Olsen, — Organizations: Business Locations: — Austin, Phoenix, Nashville

☆ Unemployment fell for Black women in February as more joined the labor force
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesUnemployment among Black women fell in February as the number of those looking for work increased, data released Friday by the U.S. government showed. Adult women age 20 and older in the labor force followed that trend, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.5% from 3.2%. The percentage of unemployed Black women, however, fell to 4.4% from 4.8%. She pointed to the decrease in the unemployment rate, while the employment/population ratio edged higher to 60.6% from 59.9%. "We saw increases in health care and government services, which are sectors where we see a significant number of Black women being employed," she said.

Persons: Joe Raedle, Valerie Wilson, Wilson Organizations: Getty, U.S, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC Locations: Miami, U.S

☆ Job growth beats estimates, unemployment rate hits 2-year high
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Madison Hoff | Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewFebruary's job growth was strong and similar to January's revised job gain. According to Friday's news release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US experienced job growth of 275,000 in February. Additionally, December's job growth of 333,000 stated in the February release was updated to 290,000 in the new report. Leisure and hospitality saw large job growth in February, with an increase of 58,000. Pollak also pointed out the large job gains seen in December and January were revised downward and an increase in the unemployment rate in February.

Persons: —, Labor Julie Su, Julia Pollak, Pollak, Nick Bunker, Bunker, That's Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, Labor, BLS, North, Labor Statistics Locations: America, North America

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