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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLaid off tech workers finding higher paying jobs within months, says ZipRecruiter's Julia PollakJulia Pollak, ZipRecruiter chief economist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the hiring spree in tech despite the massive layoffs affecting the sector.
According to Joblist's second quarter of 2022 report, 26% of "job seekers who quit their previous job" regret the move. Kristen is still hoping things will work out and that she will land a job soon, but is feeling some regrets. I wish I would've not quit my first job," Kristen said. "I wish so many different things would've fallen into place. But, at the end of the day, I can't wish things away."
It's still a good time to apply and get a job according to labor market data, survey results, and experts. "The best job seeker's market in over 50 years"According to Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, now is a great time to find a job. "If I was a job seeker I would think this is still a job seekers' labor market," Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at Indeed Hiring Lab, told Insider. But this is still very much a labor market that's giving lots of advantages to people who are looking for new work." Despite the strong labor market, some workers out of work or impacted by recent layoff announcements may have a hard time finding a job soon.
But it’s premature to say that Covid is no longer an economic issue when long Covid has such a significant effect on America’s workforce, economists and health care officials say. Long Covid, which stems from a Covid-19 infection, is considered a chronic illness that is sometimes debilitating. As many as 30% of Americans, about 23 million people, develop long Covid after a Covid infection, said the US Department of Health and Human Services in November. “Long Covid has harmed the workforce,” said the report, compiled by the New York State Insurance Fund. Caregiving for those suffering from Covid or long Covid is also affecting the labor imbalance, said Giacomo Santangelo, an economics professor at Fordham University.
Unemployment is at historic lowsThe unemployment rate fell to 3.4% in January — the lowest since May 1969. In fact, you'd have to go back to October 1953 to find a lower unemployment rate (3.1%). "The job market is still strong, and workers have opportunities to go out and find a job that's a better fit for them," Zhao said. "The thing that strikes me the most about the labor market is there aren't layoffs," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. That's not necessarily a bad sign — the job market was also strong in the run-up to the pandemic.
The US added 517,000 jobs in January, starting the year with surprisingly strong job creation. January's job growth far surpasses the forecast of 185,000 jobs added. The US added 517,000 jobs in January, according to nonfarm payrolls data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Job growth in December was revised from 223,000 to 260,000. Fed Chair Jerome Powell pointed out how job growth has been at a press conference Wednesday after the Fed increased interest rates by 25 basis points.
What to look for in Friday’s jobs report
  + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
Minneapolis CNN —A week that has been chock-full of economic data will be capped off Friday with the first US jobs report of 2023. Beyond the key headline indicators of payroll gains, unemployment and average hourly earnings, here are some other areas of the jobs report that Pollak and other economists will scrutinize when the January jobs report is released Friday morning. Average weekly hoursIn December, the average working week for employees — including part-time workers — was 34.3 hours, according to BLS data. Labor force participationThe imbalance of labor demand and worker supply has been consistently highlighted by the Fed as a potential sticking point in its efforts to lower inflation. The world has changed pretty dramatically over the last two to three years, and it’s going to be difficult to show people that the skills they possess are needed right now.”The government’s monthly jobs report is scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m.
More than 50 million workers quit their jobs in 2022, according to federal data, breaking a record set the year prior and demonstrating the resilience of a hot labor market characterized by ample job opportunity. But while quitting a job "was the 2021 story, 2022 was the real year of the Great Resignation," said Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter. The trend of elevated quitting came to be known as the Great Resignation. Americans turned to the social media site TikTok to post "Quit-Toks," and to Reddit forums to share stories about quitting and resignation text messages to bosses. About 50.5 million people quit their jobs in 2022, beating out the 47.8 million in 2021, according to Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data issued Wednesday.
The 11 million openings for December is the highest since July. The largest increases in job openings were in accommodation and food services, which were up 409,000; retail trade, up 134,000; and construction, up 82,000, according to the BLS report. “The labor market continues to defy the recession predictions of experts,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist with FwdBonds, in a statement. Layoffs increased to 1.47 million from 1.41 million in November, and the number of people quitting their jobs ticked down to 4.09 million from 4.1 million. Still, there may be something more than meets the eye in December’s openings number, she added.
" Loud layoffs " in tech have a disproportionate chilling effect, says ZipRecruiter chief economist Julia Pollak, because they're happening at household name-companies that just experienced rapid growth. But while these job losses are sudden and no doubt disruptive to the people impacted, they're not the wave of job cuts that would signal a recession, economists say. "We're not in a recession yet" and may not realize we're in one until it's over, says ADP chief economist Nela Richardson. Tech companies may be "pruning" their headcount, Richardson adds, but they're still investing in building future technology, and by extension, workforces. "We've entered a new era of the labor market," Richardson says, "where just-in-time supply of goods or workers has been disrupted, and workers may not be there when you need them."
Google announced plans on Friday to lay off 12,000 people, the biggest reduction in the company's 25-year history. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg and Amazon CEO Andy Jassy alluded to this overextension when explaining the rationale for their respective layoff plans. Tech skills are in 'high demand'Tech skills are in "high demand across the economy," Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, wrote in November. "Had tech companies continued growing at the breakneck 2020-2021 pace, they would have monopolized U.S. tech talent and made it impossible for employers in non-tech industries to hire tech talent," she said. Aside from good news for existing tech workers, high demand for technical skills is also a "big sign" of where opportunities exist for those starting or switching careers, Indeed said.
Economists say there is a 61% likelihood for a recession in 2023, according to the Wall Street Journal survey. Some say high interest rates will push the US economy into the recession. For instance, some say higher interest rates will push the U.S. economy into a recession this year. Regardless, businesses and workers alike are preparingSince the middle of 2022, businesses and workers have continued preparing for the economic downturn to come. Despite today's economic fears, now is actually a beneficial time to start these small businesses, financial experts told Insider.
The US labor market has been above its pre-pandemic February 2020 employment level for a while. Some sectors are still below pre-pandemic employment almost three years since the official start of the pandemic. While leisure and hospitality isn't back at its pre-pandemic employment level, it still has been experiencing large monthly job gains as workers are needed to meet demand. Air transportation was 11.7% above its February 2020 employment level in December. It continued to expand throughout the pandemic and was 30.8% above its pre-pandemic employment as of December.
Higher pay has been needed to keep up with inflation. Wage growth, based on average hourly earnings, is up 4.6% from a year ago. watch now"People who switch jobs are much more likely to be getting a raise above inflation than people who are staying in their jobs," Zhao said. But with a possible economic downturn looming, workers seeking higher pay face a more complex decision as to whether to stay or go. With pay rates so competitive now, even some laid-off workers are finding higher offers than what they were earning before, according to Pollak.
That's good news, since the Federal Reserve has been trying to tame wage growth. Cooling wage growth could mean the Fed won't need to induce a recession to bring down inflation. Bunker said that wage growth "is still robust but starting to moderate a little bit." And wage growth has slowed even more when looking at data from the most recent months, rather than just the year-over-year change. "We're seeing wage growth at 4.6% year-over-year.
The December jobs report beat expectations once again, as key service sectors continued to show strong growth. Health care and social services led the way with a gain of more than 74,000 jobs last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its report, released Friday. Pollak added that both sectors look poised for long-term growth due to changing consumer trends and an aging population. Retail trade and the transportation and warehousing sector also posted slight gains after shedding jobs the previous two months. Professional and business services saw the largest decline of the above sectors, shedding 6,000 jobs.
What to expect from the jobs report on Friday
  + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
Minneapolis CNN —Friday’s jobs report is expected to show that the US economy added 200,000 jobs in December, with the unemployment rate holding steady for the third-straight month at 3.7%. “The preponderance of evidence suggests that the labor market is still nowhere near back to normal,” said Julia Pollak, senior economist with ZipRecruiter online employment marketplace. Historically tightThe US labor market remains atypically tight — something that was reinforced Wednesday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for November. It showed there were still north of 10.5 million job openings, or about 1.7 available positions for every unemployed person looking for work. “But it’s unclear how far inflation can fall without the labor market deteriorating, or rather, it’s not clear what the underlying pace of inflation is with the labor market this tight.”—CNN’s Matt Egan contributed to this report.
It could be a sign the 2023 job market will launch on strong footing, economists say, even with fresh staffing cuts announced this week. Meanwhile, there were 10.5 million job openings, or roughly 1.7 vacancies per available worker. "In aggregate, layoffs are still way lower than pre-pandemic," Pollak says. As of November, job openings ticked up for professional and business services, as well as manufacturing, and hiring shot up in health care and social assistance. Even finance openings and information openings are up compared with February 2020.
That’s more than the 10 million total job openings that economists were expecting, according to Refinitiv, and slightly lower than the upwardly revised October total of 10.51 million. The robust number of job openings remains “a testament to the resilience of demand for labor on Main Street, even as job openings tumbled on Wall Street,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist with ZipRecruiter, in a tweet posted shortly after the report was released. There were still about 1.7 job openings for each job seeker in November, unchanged from October, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Job hiring inched down to 6.06 million in November from 6.11 million in October, according to the report. Layoffs fell to 1.35 million from 1.45 million, and the number of people quitting their job increased to 4.17 million from 4.05 million.
Filadendron | E+ | Getty ImagesThe share of workers who quit their jobs jumped in November for the first time since last spring — and they're getting a big pay bump for moving, data shows. The labor market remains strong by historical standards, characterized by a high level of job openings and low layoffs. That translates to ample opportunity for workers, who generally get an increase in pay when they accept a new position. In other words, the average consumer lost buying power because rapidly rising prices for goods and services outstripped pay growth. Wage growth has moderated a bit from 2021, though remains strong relative to its pre-pandemic trend, Bunker said.
Wages have been going up this year, but so have prices — and prices are growing faster. Skyrocketing inflation has meant that a pay raise of 7.1% or below is essentially a pay cut. It's the time of year when annual raises come in, but if you didn't see a pay hike of at least 7.1%, you're effectively making less. But many workers haven't seen their real wages outpace inflation since 2021, even as they have more bargaining power than they've seen in decades. "If there are 100 chairs and 50 workers, workers are cool, man!"
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFor employers, the big issue in 2023 is employee experience, says ZipRecruiter's Julia PollakJulia Pollak, Chief Economist at ZipRecruiter, joins Worldwide Exchange to discuss her predictions for the labor market in 2023.
Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines, told CNBC that there could be a "mild recession induced by the Fed." Here's what experts are saying about a recession in 2023Some Wall Street experts and economists think the US could avoid a recession next year, and that even if one comes, it will likely not be as severe as the downturns after the 2008 financial crisis and the early Covid pandemic. As Insider's Brian Evans reported, economists at Bank of America think there will be a mild recession too. While some think a recession is on the horizon, there's a chance that the US may not enter one at all. "I think we would need to see a significant deterioration in the labor market for me to think we're in a recession, and we have not seen any significant deterioration yet," Bunker said.
Recruiters and other experts tell Insider that tech workers are in especially high demand in sectors including insurance, healthcare, retail, government, and banking. As you may expect, the traditional tech industry remains the largest employer of tech workers, the experts say. ZipRecruiter's Pollak said the turmoil in Big Tech was pushing "some tech workers to explore opportunities outside" the usual suspects for the first time. Tech job creation and hiring numbers remain strong, but layoffs keep coming, underscoring a tech labor market in flux. As for how laid-off tech workers ought to position themselves for these jobs, the Hired Guns recruiter Hemming has some advice.
As the end of the year fast approaches, workers are looking ahead to 2023 with a sense of cautious optimism and hope. One-third of workers regret working too much this past year, according to Workhuman's report, while one-quarter regret not setting stricter boundaries at work. About 4% of workers are optimistic that work-life balance will improve in 2023, and 29% of workers expect that employees will be more vocal about their needs in the workplace. Nearly 21% of workers are also confident that their connections with colleagues will improve, while 10% of workers expect these relationships to worsen. When Workhuman asked employees to describe 2023 in one word or phrase, these bright descriptors topped the list: "new beginnings," "success," "comeback" and "work-life balance."
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