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The U.S. seemed to be winning its battle against inflation, but the latest consumer price index data showed inflation rose more than expected. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment August survey indicated consumers' one-year inflation expectations were at 3.3%, marking three consecutive months of stability. Inflation expectations, or the rate at which consumers expect prices to rise or fall in the future, can influence higher prices in the economy. Inflation expectations play a crucial role in the decisions made by the Federal Reserve. But consumer expectations of inflation are still above the Fed's 2% inflation rate target.
Persons: Joanne Hsu, It's, Hsu, Claudia Sahm, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Barry Glassman Organizations: University of Michigan, The University of, Consumers, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Sahm Consulting, Federal, Kansas City, Wealth Services Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
As a result, they’re almost sure to leave their key interest rate unchanged when their meeting ends Wednesday. Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, said she thinks a “soft landing,” in which the Fed manages to curb inflation without causing a recession, remains possible. But she cautioned that inflation might stay higher for longer than the central bank expects. Or, she suggested, the cumulative effects of the Fed's 11 rate hikes could ultimately tip the economy into recession. “I expect we’ll need to hold rates at restrictive levels for some time,” said Susan Collins, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
Persons: they’re, Jerome Powell, Claudia Sahm, ” Sahm, “ They’re, , Christopher Waller, Powell, , They're, Jose Torres, Susan Collins, Lorie Logan, William English Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal, Wall Street, Fed, Fed's, Governors, CNBC, Interactive, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Dallas Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, , Yale School of Management Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Ukraine, U.S
That data indicates that the Federal Reserve is still likely to hold rates steady next week, some investors say. Inflation: US inflation climbed 3.7% in August from the prior year, marking an acceleration for the second consecutive month, according to the latest Consumer Price Index. Excluding the boost from gas station sales, retail spending added 0.2% in August from July. Traders see a roughly 97% chance that the central bank keeps rates unchanged in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The central bank has now raised its main interest rate at 10 consecutive meetings, taking it to the highest level since the launch of the euro currency in 1999.
Persons: , , Sam Millette, Price, Taylor Swift, Bill Adams, Jerome Powell, Liz Young, CNN’s Olesya, Michelle Toh ., Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal Reserve, Commonwealth Financial Network, National Federation of Independent Business, Comerica Bank, Traders, European Central Bank, Central Bank, ECB, Cornell University, Schroders, Fashion, Cornell’s Global Labor Institute Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Vietnam, Cambodia, Schroders
"While there has been meaningful progress to date on inflation ... the Fed will not be able to take this for granted." Around 70% of those respondents, 62 of 87, had at least one rate cut by the end of next June. Still, all but five of 28 respondents to an extra question said the bigger risk was that the first Fed cut would come later than they currently forecast. A serious economic downturn could justify an earlier rate cut, but that is looking less likely. The economy was expected to expand by 2.0% this year and 0.9% in 2024, according to the poll.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Brett Ryan, Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi's Hollenhorst, Prerana Bhat, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Shaloo, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, Reuters, Deutsche Bank, Consumer, Index, Citi, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S
Morning Bid: Will CPI fit the Fed-on-hold narrative?
  + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, September 12, 2023. Reuters GraphicsMoreover, the labour market remains tight by many measures and the climb in crude oil is a concern. For Andrew Bailey and his cohorts, today will be a busy one for analysing data that includes GDP and factory production. Sagging stocks though don't bode well for the European open, as Asian investors continued the sell-off seen on Wall Street. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:- UK GDP, industrial production (July)- EZ industrial production (July)- US CPI (Aug)Editing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Kevin Buckland, Jerome Powell, Andrew Bailey, bode, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, U.S, CPI, Reuters, Fed, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, ECB, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Jackson, China
"While there has been meaningful progress to date on inflation ... the Fed will not be able to take this for granted." Only one said the Fed would cut rates this year. Around 70% of those respondents, 62 of 87, had at least one rate cut by the end of next June. Still, all but five of 28 respondents to an extra question said the bigger risk was that the first Fed cut would come later than they currently forecast. A serious economic downturn could justify an earlier rate cut, but that is looking less likely.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Brett Ryan, Andrew Hollenhorst, Citi's Hollenhorst, Prerana Bhat, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Shaloo, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, Reuters, Deutsche Bank, Consumer, Index, Citi, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S
He also discussed Wedbush's best ideas list: 23 stock picks that have beaten the market YTD. As for the Fed, Merritt isn't particularly concerned about whether it cuts or hikes rates once again this year. The best stocks to buy nowBroadly, Merritt is neutral on equities, primarily because of the opportunity investors have to profit from bonds. Merritt also pointed to Wedbush's Best Ideas List, a collection of the highest-rated equities selected by Wedbush analysts. Wedbush's 23 best stock picks are below, along with each company's ticker and the price target it has been given by a Wedbush analyst.
Persons: Kevin Merritt, Merritt, Jerome Powell's, Jackson, What's, it's, Merritt isn't, Wedbush's, ~ ~$ ) Organizations: Wedbush Securities, Federal Reserve, Investors, Fed Locations: Ukraine, China, Taiwan, Russia
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan walks to the opening dinner of the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. My base case, though, is that there is work left to do," she said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Dallas Business Club at Southern Methodist University. "After the unacceptably rapid price increases of the past several years, I’m not yet convinced that we’ve extinguished excess inflation." "Another skip could be appropriate when we meet later this month," Logan said, referring to the Fed's upcoming Sept. 19-20 meeting. "In coming months, further evaluation of the data and outlook could confirm that we need to do more to extinguish inflation."
Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, I’m, Logan, Diane Craft Organizations: Reserve Bank, Dallas, Kansas City, REUTERS, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, U.S, Dallas Business Club, Southern Methodist University, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S
Global stocks notched their second-worst month of the year in August, with the MSCI broad aggregate of world indexes dropping 2.96%, according to LSEG data. This has carried into a tepid start to September trade, but Madison Faller, global investment strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank, said in a research note on Friday that 2023 can still finish strong. "While there are still things we don't know, the read from the key players — central banks, Wall Street, Main Street and the C-suite — suggests that the outlook feels brighter today than it did a year ago," Faller said. "With less worry about the near term, more firms are starting to focus on how they can continue growing in the long term. Technology stocks, particularly those with a heavy focus on AI, have driven a huge portion of the market's gains so far this year.
Persons: Madison Faller, Faller, haven't, Jerome Powell, Powell didn't, Goldman Sachs, it's, Peter Oppenheimer, we're, Tesla Organizations: NYSE, NYSE Stock, JPMorgan Private Bank, Federal Reserve, Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Global Equity, CNBC, Nvidia, Facebook Locations: Wall, China, U.S
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins stands behind the Jackson Lake Lodge in Jackson Hole, where the Kansas City Fed holds its annual economic symposium, in Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. Fed officials generally agree high levels of inflation are coming down, even as price pressures are still elevated. On the jobs front, Collins said demand for workers continues to outstrip supply and wage growth remains elevated. The current stance of monetary policy should “temper” demand and “I do not believe a significant slowdown is required,” Collins said. Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Susan Collins, Ann Saphir, ” Collins, they’ll, what’s, Collins, , Michael S, Chizu Organizations: Reserve Bank of Boston, Kansas City Fed, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Fed, Market Committee, Thomson Locations: Jackson, Wyoming, U.S
New York CNN —Economists added yet another term to their lexicon in recent months: immaculate disinflation. That pain tends to come in the form of a higher unemployment rate, which hampers economic growth. Yet the nation’s unemployment rate actually fell from 3.6% in June 2022 to 3.5% in July 2023. That’s leading some economists to believe that immaculate disinflation may be possible. “I wouldn’t call this disinflation immaculate,” he said in a CNBC interview at last month’s Jackson Hole Fed conference.
Persons: there’s, that’s, aren’t, Jerome Powell, Powell, Alex Wong, Joe Biden’s, Jared Bernstein, , Jackson, , Bernstein, Loretta Mester, ” Mester, it’s, Mester Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNBC, Fed, White, Cleveland Fed Locations: New York, United States
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins on Wednesday advocated a patient approach to policymaking while saying she needs more evidence to convince her that inflation has been tamed. In remarks that aligned with sentiment from other key central bankers, Collins said the Fed may be "near or even at the peak" for interest rates. Both also supported the patient approach while cautioning that they view recent positive developments on inflation with caution and are ready to approve additional rate hikes if needed. Collins also spoke on the lags with which Fed policy is thought to work. Generally, economists believe it takes a year to a year and a half for rate hikes to seep through the economy.
Persons: Susan Collins, Collins, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Waller, it's Organizations: Reserve Bank of Boston, Kansas City Fed, Boston Federal, Wednesday, CNBC, Market, Group Locations: Jackson, Wyoming, Boston
Federal Reserve Governor and Vice Chair-designate Philip Jefferson poses for a photograph on the sidelines of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank's annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 25, 2023. REUTERS/Ann Saphir Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Sept 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate on Tuesday voted overwhelmingly to clear the way for the confirmation this week of Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson to be vice chair of the U.S. central bank. President Joe Biden has also nominated Fed Governor Lisa Cook to a new 14-year term, and picked World Bank economist Adriana Kugler to fill the last open seat of the seven-member Fed Board. The Senate will vote on Cook and Kugler’s nominations in the next few days, Senator Sherrod Brown said before Jefferson vote. Jefferson and Cook have both voted for every rate hike since they joined the Fed in May 2022.
Persons: Philip Jefferson, Ann Saphir, Jerome Powell, Joe Biden, Lisa Cook, Adriana Kugler, Cook, Sherrod Brown, Jefferson, Chuck Schumer, Richard Cowan, Leslie Adler, Lincoln Organizations: Federal, Governor, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Senate, Federal Reserve, Jefferson, World Bank, Fed, Committee, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S
The bank said its R-Star estimate for the second quarter ticked down to 0.57%, from the first quarter’s 0.68%. Analysts typically translate that rate into a real-world setting by adding R-Star to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Given that the Fed’s current target rate range is at 5.25% to 5.5%, it suggests monetary policy remains at a notably restrictive level for the economy. One key test of how Fed officials are thinking about the issue could come at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for Sept. 19-20. At that gathering officials are due to update forecasts for interest rates and the economy and that will include a view on long-run rates.
Persons: John Williams, there’s, Jerome Powell, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Federal, Committee, Thomson Locations: New, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, guesswork
There's now just a 15% chance of a US recession over the next 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs. The Federal Reserve is close to calling time on its war on inflation, according to the bank. "Our confidence that the Fed is done raising rates has grown," economist Jan Hatzius said. "On net, our confidence that the Fed is done raising rates has grown in the past month," he wrote in a research note. Those economic data-points could help to convince some of the more hardline Fed policymakers that further tightening won't be necessary necessary, according to Hatzius.
Persons: There's, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, there's, it's, Henry Blodget, Jerome, Powell's, Jackson, Hatzius Organizations: Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, Wyoming
We view Chair Powell's promise at Jackson Hole to 'proceed carefully' as a signal that a September hike is off the table and the hurdle for a November hike is significant." "On net, our confidence that the Fed is done raising rates has grown in the past month," added Hatzius. Goldman also said taking out certain distortions shows underlying inflation may already be close to the Fed's 2% desired target. Goldman doesn't believe the Fed will start cutting rates anytime soon, in part because the firm sees the economy remaining strong. Hatzius said the Fed would begin "very gradual" rate cuts starting in the second quarter of next year.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Jackson, Nonfarm, Hatzius, Goldman, Goldman doesn't, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Fed, Bloomberg Locations: U.S
Washington, DC CNN —Last week’s economic data increasingly gave investors hope that the Federal Reserve could hold interest rates steady this month, following a hike in July that brought rates to their highest level in 22 years. It’s hard to say definitively if or when the central bank will hike interest rates again this year. The Fed could hold rates steady for the rest of the year if both the job market and the broader economy continue to slow, helping bring down inflation. Higher for longer means keeping interest rates elevated for a prolonged period. China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases August inflation data.
Persons: hasn’t, ” Leslie Thompson, Thompson, Jerome Powell, Powell, Susan Collins, Powell’s Jackson, there’s, Raphael Bostic, Olesya Dmitracova, ” Patrick Hummel, David Lesne, Juan Perez, Carrascosa, Barnes & Noble Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, Financial, Spectrum Wealth Management, CNN, Fed, Kansas City, Boston, Yahoo, Finance, Atlanta Fed, Volkswagen, Renault, UBS, French, Swiss, Barnes &, The Reserve Bank of Australia, US Commerce Department, Eagle, Express, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Bank of Canada, US Labor Department, Kroger, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Cape Town , South Africa, Europe
What the August jobs report means for the Fed
  + stars: | 2023-09-02 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Washington, DC CNN —The long-robust US job market is continuing to cool, according to several economic indicators released this week. It’s clear the labor market has cooledThere are plenty of signs that the job market has continued to weaken and that momentum is largely expected to continue in the months ahead. The August jobs report showed that average hourly earnings grew at a monthly pace of just 0.2%, or 4.3% annually. “Pretty much everything in the labor market has cooled back to the pre-pandemic temperature,” Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, told CNN. It’s also possible the job market holds steady if recession fears continue to fade, allowing businesses to address stubborn staffing shortages.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, , , Steve Wyett, ” Julia Pollak, we’ve, Nick Bunker, ” Bunker, It’s, they’ve, ” Pollak Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Kansas City, Labor, BOK Financial, Fed, of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, CNN, Commerce Department, US, Banks Locations: Washington, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Take Five: A September to remember?
  + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 29, 2023. 1/ SCARY SEPTEMBERNow the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole confab is over, investors are strapping in for a potentially volatile month. Reuters Graphics2/ THE SICK MAN OF EUROPEGermany looks likely to be the only major economy to contract this year. No wonder the region's economic powerhouse is once again being called the sick man of Europe. But economists are sceptical, noting that at just 0.2% of GDP, the package is no game-changer and that the sick man will need more medicine.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Ira Iosebashvili, Kevin Buckland, Dhara Ranasinghe, Libby George, Naomi Rovnick, Jackson, Jerome Powell, Olaf Scholz, Xi Jinping, Philip Lowe, Michele Bullock, BoE, Amanda Cooper, John Stonestreet Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Reuters, ECB, Germany's, Reserve Bank of Australia, Traders, Bank of, British Retail Consortium, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Ira, New York, Tokyo, London, Germany, Europe, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Ghana, Zambia, Delhi, China, Bullock, Bank of England, Halifax
The US jobs market stayed strong in August
  + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Truck transportation also saw employment fall by 36,700.Leisure and hospitality saw a job gain of 40,000 from July to August. From wage growth to an increase in labor force participation, various data points suggest the US labor market is still strong. There were 8.8 million job openings in July after 9.2 million in June, according to new Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey or JOLTS data released by BLS earlier this week. "We expect this labor market rebalancing to continue," Powell said. "Evidence that the tightness in the labor market is no longer easing could also call for a monetary policy response."
Persons: Jerome Powell, Lydia Boussour, EY, Boussour, Nick Bunker, Bunker, it's, Julia Pollak, Pollak, Jonathan Fisher, Fisher, Powell Organizations: payrolls, Service, SAG, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor, BLS, North America, Washington Center for Equitable Growth Locations: Wall, Silicon, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Minneapolis CNN —US inflation may have remained elevated in July, but consumers just wanted to have some fun. It’s the strongest monthly spending gain since January; however, underlying data indicates this type of activity may be on borrowed time. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index showed that prices increased 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3.3% annually. Economists were expecting monthly increases of 0.2% for the headline and core indexes and 3.3% and 4.2%, respectively, for the annual numbers. Even when adjusted for inflation, spending surged in July, rising by 0.6% from the month before.
Persons: ” Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, , ” Gregory Daco, EY, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Wells, Shannon Seery, Wells Fargo, ” Seery, ” Daco, Powell, Jackson, Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, New Commerce Department, Federal, Commerce Department, Amazon’s, PCE, CNN, , of Labor Statistics Locations: Minneapolis, Jackson Hole , Wyoming
Inflation showed its sticky nature in July, rising slightly as increases in services costs offset a decline in the price of goods, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a metric closely followed by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.3% for the 12-month period. The core index, stripping out energy and food costs, rose 0.2% and 4.2%, respectively. “The decline in house prices appears to have abated, which means that the contribution from shelter to core inflation next year may stabilize if not increase. Upside inflation risk is also present in healthcare services where insurance prices are expected to rise this October along with a continued upward pressure on labor demand in the sector, thus suggesting higher wage costs.”
Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, , Shana Orczyk Sissel, Joe Davis Organizations: Economic, Federal, RSM, Dow Jones, Banrion Capital Management, Vanguard Locations: , Wyoming
ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was trading 2 basis point lower at 4.09%. The 2-year Treasury yield was down by 1.9 basis points to 4.869%. U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday as investors looked to the release of key inflation data which could inform Federal Reserve monetary policy and provide insight into the state of the U.S. economy. The PCE is a key inflation gauge for the Fed and could therefore affect the central bank's monetary policy, especially regarding interest rates. ADP reported Wednesday that private employers added 177,000 jobs in August, well below the revised total of 371,000 added in July.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Dow Jones Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Investors, PCE, Fed Locations: U.S, Jackson
Passersby are reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. "They almost certainly have to hike again this year because today's inflation data shows there's still more work to do." INFLATION WATCHGovernment bond yields in the euro zone rose broadly after inflation data suggested the ECB may still have to hike rates again. Germany's two-year bond yields rose 7 bps to 3.09% . Spanish inflation rose 2.6% in August, as economists polled by Reuters had expected.
Persons: Issei Kato, Patrick Armstrong, there's, SEB, Elisabet Kopelman, Jerome Powell's, Naomi Rovnick, Shashwat Chauhan, Mark Potter, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, Nasdaq, Wall, SEB Group, Fed, Reuters, Bank's, U.S, Treasury, Brent, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Spain, North Rhine Westphalia, Germany's, United States, Gulf, Mexico, Bengaluru
On Wednesday, European shares nudged higher (.STOXX), while a gauge of Asian shares gained 0.35% (.MIAPJ0000PUS) and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei touched its highest in over two weeks (.N225). Spanish inflation rose 2.6% in August, as economists polled by Reuters had expected. Economists polled by Reuters expect the headline euro zone inflation rate to have moderated to 5.1% in August from 5.3% in July, still far above the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% goal. Euro zone inflation has exceeded the target level for two years. Germany's two-year yield rose 7 bps to 3.099% after regional Germany inflation data.
Persons: Issei Kato, SEB, Elisabet Kopelman, Jerome Powell's, Europe's, Sylvia Ardagna, Ardagna, Germany's, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SEB Group, Fed, Reuters, Bank's, Barclays, ECB, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SINGAPORE, Asia, Spain, Germany, North Rhine Westphalia, Germany's
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