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Search resuls for: "FiveThirtyEight"


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His State of the Union address will likely highlight his administration's wins thus far. Biden has some real wins to tout — but he's running out of timeTonight, Biden will have the best opportunity of the year to bridge this divide. True, fewer Americans are watching State of the Union addresses than in the past. Presidents are supposed to say the state of the union is strong, while the opposition party casts a more dour outlook. Even as Americans are largely satisfied with their quality of life, they're still pessimistic about the general direction of the country.
High-ranking Democrats confided in the New York Times that they've lost hope in Kamala Harris. Harris' aides expected the Democratic sources to speak well of her to the Times, but they didn't. The sources told the Times they don't believe Harris has what it takes to be a leader of the party. "Even some Democrats whom her own advisers referred reporters to for supportive quotes confided privately that they had lost hope in her," the Times reported as part of an article on the party's confidence in Harris published on Monday. Yet, they told the Times that they've started to doubt Harris' ability to be a potential future leader of the Democratic party.
“Around the country, MAGA extremists are lining up to take on those bedrock freedoms,” Mr. Biden said, using Mr. Trump’s Make America Great Again slogan to describe the former president’s allies. While he had repeatedly and consistently said he intended to run, Mr. Biden stoked renewed speculation by delaying his kickoff for months. Mr. Biden tapped Julie Chávez Rodríguez, a senior White House adviser and granddaughter of the iconic labor leader Cesar Chávez, as his campaign manager. But the operation is expected to be overseen from the White House by top presidential aides. While polls show that most Democrats have favorable opinions about Mr. Biden, a majority of them would still rather he not run again.
Trump's allies repeatedly rejected Kevin McCarthy as House speaker, displaying his power's limits. A week of House speaker chaos revealed one thing about Donald Trump: He can't get his MAGA house in order. The drama started on Tuesday, and it wasn't until Friday that McCarthy managed to make headway in flipping members' votes. "The president needs to tell Kevin McCarthy that, 'Sir, you do not have the votes, and it's time to withdraw.'" House members who are responding to the MAGA base have no reason to fear Trump on this, he said.
Opinion | Vaccines, Inflation, Abortion: 2022 in Charts
  + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Steven Rattner | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +16 min
By the end of 2022, 23 percent of American women resided in states with effective bans on abortion. June 2022 March 2022 Dec. 2021 Sept. 2022 Dec. 2022 Fed Funds Rate 6% 5 4 3 2 1 2022 2023 2025 2024 Longer run Unemployment 5% 4 3 2 1 2022 2023 2025 2024 Longer run G.D.P. Growth 4% 3 2 1 2022 2023 2025 2024 Longer run Core Inflation 5% 4 3 2 1 2022 2023 2025 2024 Sept. 2022 June 2022 March 2022 Dec. 2021 Dec. 2022 Fed Funds Rate G.D.P. Growth 4% 6% 5 3 4 3 2 2 1 1 2022 2023 2025 2022 2023 2025 2024 2024 Longer run Longer run Core Inflation Unemployment 5% 5% 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2022 2023 2025 2022 2023 2025 2024 2024 Longer run Source: Federal Open Market CommitteeThe sustained period of high inflation left the Fed playing catch-up, as it had initially believed that the surge would prove transitory. 150 100 Xi Jinping addresses in 2017 & 2022 50 1982-2012 Economy Military Market Technology Reform Security Source: Capital EconomicsThen there was China: Our biggest source of imported goods became ever more clearly our biggest strategic adversary.
A Partisan Thumbs Down for Sinema’s Verity
  + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( John Fund | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
Kyrsten Sinema didn’t always seem like a moderate. Now she has left the Democratic Party to become an independent, complaining that “payback against the opposition party has replaced thoughtful legislation.”Yet ideologically she hasn’t changed much. FiveThirtyEight.com notes that she has voted with President Biden 93% of the time. Where she departs from today’s Democratic Party is over its intolerant domination by progressives. She said progressives had caught “the dread disease” of “identity politics” and wrapped themselves in the “mantle of victimhood.”
Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s announcement Friday morning that she was abandoning the Democratic Party to become an independent may require Democrats to modify their catchphrase. Her desperate leap out of the Democratic Party will someday make a compelling story for her book. In response, the Arizona Democratic Party took the serious step of censuring Sinema for her behavior. She’ll almost certainly need to fend off that challenge without the institutional Democratic Party resources she would otherwise have enjoyed. Her desperate leap out of the Democratic Party will someday make a compelling story for her book.
Some Republicans have turned against Donald Trump after the midterm elections. They blame Trump and his candidates for the GOP's poor results last Tuesday. But in the wake on the party's disappointing showing in the midterm elections last Tuesday, his reputation as a political winner is badly damaged. An increasing number of party figures, The Post reported, were actively working to oppose Trump by directing their donations elsewhere. Some Republicans believe that Tuesday's results indicate that an even more crushing defeat could be in store for the GOP in 2024 if Trump is selected as the GOP's candidate.
Democrat Hillary Scholten faced off against Republican John Gibbs in Michigan's 3rd District. Gibbs ousted incumbent Rep. Peter Meijer in a primary that hinged on Meijer's vote to impeach Trump. Democrat Hillary Scholten defeated Republican John Gibbs in a race overshadowed by former President Donald Trump and the remnants of a contentious GOP primary in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District. Scholten, a former Department of Justice attorney, has portrayed herself as a consensus-seeking Democrat who would rein in her party's spending plans. A state commission grappled with the loss of a seat by forcing the 3rd District to absorb much of an old seat, per FiveThirtyEight.
“We’ve got to unite,” Oz said at a rally Friday in Wexford, a suburb north of Pittsburgh. Democrats see his message as blatant hypocrisy considering he is backed by former President Donald Trump and has campaigned with him. “Uhhhh will he refuse to campaign with Mastriano + Trump this weekend then?? He has mostly kept Mastriano at arm’s length while rarely mentioning Trump, instead focusing on crime, inflation and undocumented immigration. “As much as I loved Trump as president, he’s pushed the other party so far away.”
Democrat Hillary Scholten is facing off against Republican John Gibbs in Michigan's 3rd District. Gibbs ousted incumbent Rep. Peter Meijer in a primary that hinged on Meijer's vote to impeach Trump. Democrat Hillary Scholten takes on Republican John Gibbs in a race overshadowed by former President Donald Trump and the remnants of a contentious GOP primary in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District. A state commission grappled with the loss of a seat by forcing the 3rd District to absorb much of an old seat, per FiveThirtyEight. The money raceAccording to OpenSecrets, Scholten has raised $2.9 million, spent $2 million, and has $959,333 on hand, as of September 30.
(C) Democratic candidate for Governor Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro poses with supporters following a joint rally with Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate John Fetterman at Norris Park on October 15, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Josh Shapiro won the Pennsylvania governor's race, defeating Republican Doug Mastriano and keeping the swing-state office in Democratic hands, NBC News projected. Shapiro led Mastriano by about 11 percentage points with roughly 64% of the vote in, according to NBC. The Democrat Shapiro has served as Pennsylvania's attorney general since 2017 and was previously a state representative. Act 77 is the voting law that allows for no-excuse mail-in voting in Pennsylvania.
Alina Habba, a lawyer for Donald Trump, warned Ron DeSantis against a 2024 bid. "DeSantis is DeSantis because of Trump," Habba said, telling him to "stay in Florida." DeSantis is considered Trump's leading rival for the 2024 GOP nomination. He is up for re-election as Florida governor in Tuesday's midterms, and has a significant lead in most polls, per the data website FiveThirtyEight. During his stint as Florida governor he has become the only Republican whose popularity rivaled Trump's.
The stock market could be poised for big upside ahead if Republicans win Congress in today's midterm election. "The very best scenario for stocks is a Democratic President and a Republican-controlled Congress," Carson Group's Ryan Detrick said. "The very best scenario for stocks is a Democratic President and a Republican-controlled Congress. Under a Democratic president, the S&P 500 saw average annual returns of 16.2% when Republicans controlled both chambers on Congress. Regardless of Tuesday's election results, the stock market has plenty of more favorable seasonals going for it into year-end, according to Detrick.
Trump wanted to announce a 2024 bid on Monday, right before midterm voting, per The Washington Post. Aides successfully persuaded him not to, fearing it'd upend the election, its report said. Trump is now expected to announce a 2024 bid on November 15. Other aides, it reported, wanted Trump to go ahead. (Axios last week reported that Nov. 14 would be the date when Trump would likely announce his candidacy.)
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on November 02, 2022 in New York City. To be sure, markets and investors care about elections – just not as much as many think. Still, it's interesting that stocks have typically done well in the aftermath of midterm elections. Clarity mattersTo be sure, businesses and investors have policy preferences, with most preferring lower taxes and fewer regulations. Gridlock is goodOne argument for why stock gains could be more than just transitory is that this election is unlikely to produce a unified government.
Explore more race results below. Rep. Angie Craig is running against Republican Tyler Kistner in Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District. The 2nd District is located south of the Twin Cities. 2022 General EmbedsMinnesota's 2nd Congressional District candidatesCraig is a member of House committees on Agriculture, Energy and Commerce, and Small Business. Voting history for Minnesota's 2nd Congressional DistrictMinnesota's 2nd District includes rural and suburban counties south of the Twin Cities of Minneapolis and Saint Paul.
Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids faces off against Republican Amanda Adkins for Kansas' 3rd District. (1 District) Chevron icon It indicates an expandable section or menu, or sometimes previous / next navigation options. Adkins has hammered Davids over inflation and her vote for Democrats' COVID rescue plan and the Inflation Reduction Act. Kansas' 3rd District now juts out further past the Kansas City suburbs, giving it a much more rural feel. Adkins has raised $3.2 million, spent $2.3 million, and has about $932,000 remaining, as of September 30.
Kathy Hochul's top donors are privately panicking about Republican challenger Rep. Lee Zeldin's recent surge in the polls ahead of Tuesday's midterms, according to people familiar with the matter. One Democratic advisor, who counts numerous Hochul donors as clients, said he's having "PTSD" as he sees Zeldin closing in on Hochul in the polls. Bragg has been criticized, often by GOP officials, for the uptick in crime in New York City. Zeldin said at the debate that his first initiative if he becomes governor is to remove Bragg from office. Hochul told Zeldin at the time "you can't throw out someone who is duly elected."
Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz are facing off for US Senate in Pennsylvania. Fetterman's health has become a focal point of the race after he suffered a stroke in May. Donald Trump Jr. mocked Fetterman on Sunday, saying he doesn't have "a working brain." Fetterman's health has been a major focal point during the race and many GOP figures, including Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, have mocked him for it. The Oz campaign has also repeatedly questioned Fetterman's ability to serve and insisted he provides a regular update on his health.
2020 boundaries Miami Beach Detail Miami Kendall 2022 boundaries The 27th District’s redrawn boundaries now include Republican areas west of Miami. 2020 boundaries 2022 boundaries The 27th District’s redrawn boundaries now include Republican areas west of Miami. Miami Beach Detail Miami Miami Kendall Kendall Miami Beach, which largely voted for President Biden, is now part of another district. 2020 boundaries 2022 boundaries Florida Florida The 27th District’s redrawn boundaries now include Republican areas west of Miami. Detail Miami Beach Miami Miami Kendall Kendall Miami Beach, which largely voted for President Biden, is now part of another district.
Election deniers who challenged the 2020 presidential election are influencing the 2022 midterms. Organizing efforts to reach voters directlyState by state, election deniers are already having an impact on the ground. Election deniers on the ballotDozens upon dozens of election deniers are also running for office in the midterms — many of whom Trump has endorsed. Nearly 300 election deniers are running for public office with 171 expected to be victorious on election night, according to The Washington Post. Mario Tama/Getty ImagesMany election deniers are running for seats in Congress while others are running in significant statewide races.
Cory Booker says that Democrats have a strong chance to control the Senate. "The reality is we still have a very strong pathway," Booker told ABC News. During an appearance on ABC's "This Week," host Martha Raddatz asked Booker about a recent FiveThirtyEight poll that predicts that Republicans have a 55% chance of taking control. "That this is the party at the end of the day that's trying to protect fundamental freedoms like the right to control your own body. So I think this a tough elections season ... but I still see a pathway for us to maintain control of the Senate."
"I can go down the list and check things: incumbency, check Wild; inflation, check Scheller; district reconfiguration, check Scheller; abortion issue, check Wild." The Pennsylvania Senate race is also hotly contestedWith the Republican Toomey retiring, CNN projected Pennsylvania could flip; NPR agreed, saying it's the "most likely Senate seat to change hands." Chen said that Oz is "continuing to close on" Fetterman, though, because Pennsylvania voters, "especially in the Lehigh Valley, are willing to split their tickets." That poll showed 34% of surveyed voters listed inflation as their most important issue in the election, followed by 28% of surveyed voters who named abortion. "Those are all issues that if we don't maintain a United States Senate, control of the United States Senate, I think this country could be really in danger," Halma said.
PoliticsTexas has the most election deniers running for officePostedTexas has more political candidates rejecting the 2020 election results running for Congress or statewide offices than any other U.S. state, according to a nationwide FiveThirtyEight survey. Julia Sun has more details.
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