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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Goldman Sachs' Jeff Currie on energy outlookJeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his outlook on energy markets.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFinancial contagion hitting oil markets, not physical contagion, says Goldman's Jeff CurrieJeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs global head of commodities research, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his outlook on energy markets.
Goldman Sachs expects commodities supercycle
  + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Julia Payne | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
LAUSANNE, Switzerland, March 21 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs expects a commodities supercycle driven by China and the capital flight from energy markets and investment this month after concerns triggered by the banking sector, the U.S. bank's head of commodities said. "As losses mounted, it spilled into commodities," Jeff Currie, global head of commodities for Goldman Sachs, told the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit on Tuesday. Currie emphasised the hit was to the supply side rather than demand and he remains very bullish on copper. We have peak supply occuring in 2024...Near term we put (the copper price) at $10,500 and longer term our price target is $15,000 a tonne." Copper hit a record high $10,845 in March 2022.
Bayer pumps H2O to top of climate agenda: podcast
  + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
NEW YORK, March 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The UN is hosting its first confab on water security in almost 50 years as floods and droughts worsen with rising temperatures. In this Exchange podcast, Bayer executive and former member of Germany’s Green Party Matthias Berninger lays out the drugs-to-seeds maker’s remedies. Subscribe to Breakingviews’ podcasts, Viewsroom and The Exchange. Editing by Thomas ShumOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Water’s big moment risks getting lost in the weeds
  + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
The latest is research published last Thursday by the Global Commission on the Economics of Water. The sum, though, is just $140 million, and the U.S. government’s International Development Finance Corporation is pouring in three-quarter of the proceeds. But there is a decent investment case for water without state or supranational support. Without them, water’s big moment risks getting lost in the weeds. Follow @AntonyMCurrie on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSThe United Nations 2023 Water Conference starts on March 22, World Water Day, in New York.
Signature Bank buyer gets a crisis dividend
  + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The failure of lender Signature Bank (SBNY.O) has forced them to abandon their consolidation-skeptic principles, resulting in a sizeable crisis dividend for Signature’s new owner. Bank mergers almost never happen so quickly, and nobody knows that better than Community Bancorp boss Thomas Cangemi. A study by the St. Louis Federal Reserve found that failed bank selloffs did lessen competition, but not by much. Community Bancorp said it has taken on $13 billion in loans and $25 billion in cash as part of the deal. The FDIC has been given equity appreciation rights in New York Community Bancorp that could be worth up to $300 million.
HONG KONG, March 16 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Incoming Bank of Japan (8301.T) Governor Kazuo Ueda can breathe a sigh of relief; things aren’t going very well. Ripples from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank have shoved down sovereign bond yields, inadvertently driving off an attack by traders who believed global inflation made rate hikes unavoidable. This year, however, spiking energy costs have pushed the core consumer index excluding fresh food over 4%, double the BOJ’s target. Consumer price inflation including energy but excluding fresh food touched 4.2% in January, a 41-year high. Core consumer inflation has now exceeded the Bank of Japan's 2% target for nine straight months.
Big Oil’s old profligacy lives on Down Under
  + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Throw in dividends and Santos shareholders have received a measly 6% total return during that period. Santos’ 15% return on capital employed last year puts it at the bottom of the class; BP delivered almost 25%. It looks slated to stay in the basement, with analysts projecting a sub-8% return for 2025, per Refinitiv data. The bonus is mostly tied to successful “growth projects”, which arguably encourages him to overinvest. If that happens again at next month’s annual meeting, it would, under Australian rules, allow investors to boot the entire board.
Sea sails past growth vs. profitability debate
  + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
BENGALURU, March 8 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Singapore technology giant Sea (SE.N) on Tuesday reported its first ever quarterly profit, beating regional tech firms like GoTo (GOTO.JK) and Grab (GRAB.O) to the punch. The almost $1 billion swing from a fourth-quarter loss in 2021 to a $423 million profit in the final three months of last year is largely down to cost cuts. The company run by Forrest Li slashed sales and marketing expenses alone by $745 million, a whopping 62% drop. Whether that’s sustainable is unclear, though Li pointed out that the company had sold, closed or downsized a number of non-core operations and investments. It’s a welcome sign that upstart tech companies don’t always have to sacrifice profitability for growth.
The usually sleepy Ministry of Science and Technology will be tasked to help lead the country's efforts to reduce dependence on Western suppliers. Meanwhile, creating a National Data Bureau should streamline the myriad of regulations spanning cybersecurity, personal privacy and information transfer. The benefits of upgrading the science, technology and patent ministries are less clear. And despite China being the world's most prolific patent filer, 90% are low-value "trash", estimated one Chinese official in 2019. Other proposals from the State Council include creating a National Data Bureau to coordinate sharing and developing the country's data resources.
Baker Greggs sees more growth as Britons 'seek value'
  + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Sarah Young | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
"Customers are seeking out value and therefore they're coming to Greggs," Currie, who has been chief executive since last May, said in an interview on Tuesday. For 2022, Greggs posted pretax profit of 148.3 million pounds ($178.6 million), in line with analysts' forecasts, on total sales which came in 23% higher. Greggs is comfortable with a consensus forecast for 2023 profit of 161 million pounds. "Greggs has demonstrated impressive resilience in 2022 with continued strong like-for-like sales growth throughout the year," Goodbody analysts said. ($1 = 0.8306 pounds)Reporting by Sarah Young, Editing by Paul Sandle and Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
British baker Greggs warns of ongoing inflation challenge
  + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - Britain's popular baker and fast food chain Greggs (GRG.L) warned that high inflation would continue to be a challenge this year, but said it was confident its value offer of sausage rolls, steak bakes and pizza would help drive growth. For 2022, Greggs posted pretax profit of 148.3 million pounds ($178.6 million), in line with analysts' forecasts, on total sales which rose 23% to 1.51 billion pounds. Profit was held back by rises in the prices of ingredients, energy and labour, with cost inflation totalling about 9% over the year, said Greggs, which trades from over 2,300 shops across Britain. "Although consumer incomes remain under pressure, Greggs continues to offer exceptional value to people looking for great tasting, high-quality food and drink on-the-go," she said in a statement on Tuesday. ($1 = 0.8306 pounds)Reporting by Sarah Young, Editing by Paul SandleOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
TPG starts a dicey dance with death Down Under
  + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Little wonder, then, that TPG is taking advantage of Australia’s InvoCare (IVC.AX) recently losing market share, and earnings, by offering shareholders A$1.8 billion ($1.5 billion) on Tuesday. But the private equity firm run by Jon Winkelried has started a dicey dance with death. At 5%, for example, annual interest payments on the new debt would be almost $50 million – a third of InvoCare’s expected EBITDA next year. Follow @AntonyMCurrie on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSTPG Global, a fund run by U.S. private equity firm TPG, on March 7 made a non-binding, indicative offer for InvoCare which values the Australian funeral-services company’s enterprise at almost A$2.2 billion ($1.5 billion). The private equity firm had the previous day bought an almost 18% stake in the company from a variety of investors at A$12.65 a share.
Kakao can end K-pop saga with near-$1 bln mic drop
  + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Kakao and its entertainment arm are eyeing a 35% stake in SM via a tender offer worth $962 million. If Kakao succeeds, the company, which has the backing of SM's management, would become the label's top shareholder. Kakao Entertainment in January raised $930 million from investors including GIC in Singapore and Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund. The envisioned partnership between Kakao, Kakao Entertainment and SM would cover global distribution, production and more for music and other content. Following Kakao's offer, SM Shares rallied 14% to 148,400 won ($114); they have nearly doubled since the start of the year.
Goldman's Jeff Currie: Our Q4 target for oil is $100 a barrel
  + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman's Jeff Currie: Our Q4 target for oil is $100 a barrelJeff Currie, Goldman Sachs global head of commodity strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the impact of China's growth ambitions on the global energy markets and more.
Adani contrarian is a win for Hindenburg, too
  + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Una Galani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
GQG Partners is snapping up shares in four of the Indian tycoon’s nine core companies, including the flagship Adani Enterprises (ADEL.NS), along with Adani Green Energy (ADNA.NS), Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSE.NS) and Adani Transmission (ADAI.NS). The mogul was trying to do just that last month with a $2.5 billion Adani Enterprise share sale before it was scuppered by Hindenburg’s sortie. Barring something truly exceptional, the scars of Hindenburg’s successful attack on Adani will linger for a while. GQG bought shares in Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Adani Green Energy, Adani Transmission and Adani Enterprises from entities owned by the Adani family. Adani has dismissed the allegations outlined in U.S. fund Hindenburg Research’s Jan. 24 report.
Tesla prepares for its next production hell
  + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Jonathan Guilford | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Demand woes are already threatening Tesla’s breakneck growth: cars delivered to customers have run below production of late, spurring the company to cut prices. Most promising was a presentation showing manufacturing and battery improvements reducing the cost of a “next gen vehicle” by 50%. A mere $5,000 in absolute gross profit, though, would leave little room for research and development and other operating expenses, which ran to $4,545 per car delivered last quarter. Still, Musk pulled off the seemingly impossible before when ramping up the Model 3, a messy slog he dubbed “production hell” at the time. After an opening presentation focused on the broad viability of transitioning the world to sustainable energy, Musk and fellow executives outlined goals to streamline production, reduce manufacturing costs by half and scale up energy storage products.
Energy stocks are gold in the market, according to "Shark Tank" investor Kevin O'Leary. "If you didn't own energy in the last 18 months, you missed the market," he said in a recent interview. O'Leary is bullish on the market this year, despite warnings of a recession and a stock crash from commentators. He previously made the case that the US could still sidestep a recession in 2023, despite warnings of an impending downturn from other Wall Street forecasters. That's contrary to what other Wall Street experts have said, warning of an impending downturn and market crash as the economy shows signs of stress.
BHP investors aren’t seeing the wood for the trees
  + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Granted, BHP’s earnings of $6.5 billion for the six months to the end of December missed estimates by some 7%. BHP’s investors are missing a bit of the wood for the trees. Iron age: Miners are rallying as iron ore prices riseFollow @AntonyMCurrie on Twitter(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The company attributed the drop to lower prices for iron ore and copper. BHP is paying a dividend of 90 cents a share for the period, down from $1.50 a share a year earlier.
Shein's ambitions are a bit of a stretch
  + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Shein’s top-line growth slowed from 57% in 2021 to 45% last year; the company expects that to continue, with its 2025 target implying average annual expansion of 37%. Meanwhile, Shein's projected 13% profit margin dwarfs that of web retailers like China's JD.com (9618.HK). The $118 billion PDD (PDD.O) recently rolled out its Temu shopping service; it is now the most downloaded app in the United States. Using the same 2.4 times forecast 2025 sales multiple the Inditex enterprise trades on, Shein's valuation could top $140 billion. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
HONG KONG, Feb 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The disappearance of Bao Fan is a chilling dampener on the reopening of the world's second largest economy. China Renaissance was valued at $2.3 billion in its own IPO in 2018 when it was ranked second on China tech deals per Dealogic. Entities including China International Capital Corp (3908.HK) and Citic Securities (600030.SS), also have to grapple with President Xi Jinping’s common-prosperity campaign, making it unclear whether these firms’ erstwhile generosity will resume when advisory activity picks up. It also noted that in September Chinese authorities took Cong Lin, the bank’s president and chairman of its Hong Kong securities unit, into custody. Column by Yawen Chen in Hong Kong and Una Galani in Mumbai.
Central banks' inflation fall-guy lives Down Under
  + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Antony Currie | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
MELBOURNE, Feb 16 (Reuters Breakingviews) - If any central bank governor was to feel the heat from the past year’s multiple interest-rate increases, the smart money might have been on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Jerome Powell. Fast forward and Philip Lowe, governor at the Reserve Bank of Australia, looks most exposed. It would be unfair for Lowe to be the fall guy for central banks’ general inflation failure. The head of the central bank made his comments in front of the Senate Economics Legislation Committee. When questioned about his future at the bank, Lowe said he intended to serve out his seven-year term as governor, which ends in September.
Manchester United, INEOS, Tesla and Musk did not reply to requests for comment. "For potential buyers, football clubs like Manchester United are considered trophy assets driven by the perception of exclusivity. The size of that bid has fuelled speculation Manchester United will attract significantly more. Manchester United is the fourth richest soccer club in the world, according to analysis by Deloitte. A small portion of Manchester United shares is listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
The $108 billion group’s sheer size means it benefits from exceptional economies of scale in an immature industry. Last year, it tripled both production and sales of pure electric and hybrid cars to nearly 2 million vehicles. That is equivalent to roughly a quarter of EVs purchased in China in 2022. The group makes batteries too, accounting for almost a quarter of China’s total sales last year, Jefferies estimates. Overall passenger car sales, including electric vehicles and fossil-fueled models, slumped 38% in January, reversing a 2.4% gain in the previous month.
HONG KONG, Feb 14 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Academic Kazuo Ueda faces a rocky time as the new governor of the Bank of Japan (8301.T). He is stepping down just as his signature yield curve control (YCC) policy is becoming increasingly unsustainable as domestic inflation rises. The Nikkei news service reported that officials had approached Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya and were rebuffed. It seems likely Ueda will have to modify or abandon YCC given how much damage it is doing to the bond market and the BOJ’s balance sheet. Follow @petesweeneypro on TwitterloadingCONTEXT NEWSJapan's government on Feb. 14 named academic Kazuo Ueda as its pick to become the next governor of the country’s central bank.
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