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Alex Kraus | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesEuropean Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel said Wednesday that a rate cut for the institution looks increasingly likely for June, but added that certain parts of the incoming inflation data still look higher than desired. watch nowEarlier Wednesday, Mario Centeno, governor of Portugal's central bank, said it was "about time to change this monetary policy cycle." The ECB's June interest rate decision would be "very important," he said. Markets are widely pricing in the first rate cut from the ECB to take place in June. watch nowEarlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that unless there were any major shocks, the ECB was on track to cut interest rates soon.
Persons: Joachim Nagel, Alex Kraus, Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel, Germany's Bundesbank, Karen Tso, " Nagel, , Mario Centeno, CNBC's Tso, Christine Lagarde, disinflation, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, wasn't Organizations: Deutsche Bundesbank, Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg, Getty, Central Bank, ECB Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Washington ,, Europe, Portugal's, Austrian, East
The firm began coverage of this corner of the ETF space on Monday. An ETF play Woodard's team began coverage of one CLO fund: the Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF (JAAA) . "Among covered ETFs with higher credit quality, it has the highest yield," Woodard said. There is also BlackRock's AAA CLO ETF (CLOA) , an actively managed offering with an expense ratio of 0.20% and a 30-day SEC yield of 6.59%. Investors digging into the CLO ETF space shouldn't just focus on yield, of course.
Persons: Jared Woodard, Woodard, Jerome Powell, CLOs, Janus Henderson, JAAA Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of America, AAA, Janus Henderson AAA CLO, SEC, AA, AAA CLO, CLOs, BBB
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB's Makhlouf: Expect a change in rates in June in the absence of shocksGabriel Makhlouf, governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, tells CNBC's Karen Tso that he expects a change in the European Central Bank's policy on interest rates, barring any unexpected events.
Persons: Gabriel Makhlouf, Karen Tso Organizations: Central Bank of Ireland
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C., on Dec. 13, 2023. Since July 2023, the Fed has kept its benchmark interest rate in a target range between 5.25%-5.5%, the highest in 23 years. Powell added that until inflation shows more progress, "We can maintain the current level of restriction for as long as needed." The comments follow inflation data through the first three months of 2024 that has been higher than expected. The benchmark 2-year note , which is especially sensitive to Fed rate moves, briefly topped 5%, while the benchmark 10-year yield rose 3 basis points.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, hasn't Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Fed, Treasury Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Canada
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe market served up another reminder of its indifference to geopolitics on Monday, as traders seemingly shrugged off the potential impact of Iran's strikes on Israel. Signs that the conflict between the two countries won't escalate any further have calmed the market's nerves, XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said on Monday. "The dollar opened the week fairly muted and US bond yields are slightly higher, suggesting that there was no flight to safe havens." Anyone who's been following markets for the past two years won't be surprised at traders' muted reaction to the latest tensions in the Middle East.
Persons: , pare, Kathleen Brooks, Joe Biden, Brooks, who's, Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, Neal Shearing, Shearing, isn't Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Ali Khamenei —, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Brent, West Texas, Business, JPMorgan, Bridgewater, Capital Economics, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Israel, Iran, Tehran, OPEC
This month's rout in smallcap stocks has erased the Russell 2000's sparkling first quarter gain, and the benchmark index for smaller shares could face further trouble ahead so long as interest rates are left unchanged. A hotter-than-expected March inflation report on Wednesday pushed investors on Wall Street to extend out expectations for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut to September from June, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool . The Fed's last interest rate increase in the current cycle was in July, 2023. Servicing debt Hall specifies that the risk to smallcaps is tied to the effect of higher interest rates on refinancing needs. "Higher for longer [interest rates have] generally been good for small cap stocks.
Persons: Russell, Smallcaps, They're, Jill Carey Hall, Hall, Steven DeSanctis, DeSanctis Organizations: Wall, Federal, Bank of America, Bank of, Jefferies Locations: U.S
Energy prices, which have been a major factor in the past two months' inflation readings, pushed higher on signs of further geopolitical turmoil. Minutes released Wednesday from the March Fed meeting showed officials were concerned about higher inflation and looking for more convincing evidence it is on a steady path lower. Sticky price CPI entails items such as housing, motor vehicle insurance and medical care services, while flexible price is concentrated in food, energy and vehicle prices. "If that's the case, you would require a decent amount of unemployment to get inflation all the way to 2.0%." That's why Furman and others have pushed for the Fed to rethink it's determined commitment to 2% inflation.
Persons: Spencer Platt, , Stocks, Jason Furman, We've, Israel, Jim Paulsen, Wells, Substack, Paulsen, Furman, Barack Obama, Jamie Dimon, John Williams, Susan Collins, it's, Larry Fink Organizations: Getty, Investors, Dow Jones, CNBC, of Economic Advisers, New York Fed, National Federation of Independent Business, Labor Department, JPMorgan, University of Michigan's, Boston, Commerce, CPI, Citigroup, Fed, Atlanta Fed, Dallas Fed, Harvard, BlackRock Locations: Manhattan, New York City, Iran, Israel
Oil prices head back up on Middle East jitters
  + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A view of an oil well at Arab Desert in Jebel Dukhan, Bahrain on March 4, 2024. Oil prices rose in early trade on Friday on heightened tensions in the Middle East, where Iran has promised to retaliate for a suspected Israeli air strike on its embassy in Syria, which could risk disruptions to supply from the oil producing region. Israel is keeping up its war in Gaza but is also preparing for scenarios in other areas, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday. "The European Central Bank's decision to leave policy rates unchanged ... was expected, but accompanying statements open the door for near-term monetary easing," S&P Global Market Intelligence said in a note. However in the U.S., Federal Reserve officials signalled on Thursday no rush to cut interest rates, as sticky U.S. inflation remains a concern.
Persons: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Benjamin Netanyahu Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, Israel, Washington, ANZ Research, Organization of, Petroleum, P Global Market Intelligence, Federal Locations: Jebel Dukhan, Bahrain, Iran, Syria, Damascus, Gaza, Israel, Tehran, Europe, U.S
LONDON — The Bank of England on Friday announced a "once in a generation" overhaul of its inflation forecasting following a long-awaited review by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke. The review — initiated following criticism of the central bank's recent policymaking — sets out 12 recommendations which BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the bank was committed to implementing. They include the scrapping of the Bank's long-held "fan chart" forecasting system and the introduction of a revamped forecast framework. It added that the BoE currently relies more heavily than other central banks on a central forecast, which may not fully account for wider risks or how inflation expectations can become "de-anchored." Additionally, the review said the bank needed to improve its communication with the public, suggesting the it put less emphasis on the central forecast, simplify its policy statement, and reduce repetitiveness."
Persons: Ben Bernanke, , BoE, Andrew Bailey, Bailey Organizations: Bank of England, City of, Federal, CNBC, Monetary, Bank Locations: City, City of London, United Kingdom, U.S
Gold drifts higher as geopolitical tensions lift safe-haven appeal
  + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
An employee handles one kilogram gold bullion at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold prices climbed on Thursday, recouping losses from the previous session, as geopolitical tensions bolstered demand for the safe-haven metal. Spot gold was up 0.6% at $2,345.56 per ounce, as of 0317 GMT. Strong central bank buying, safe-haven inflows amid continued geopolitical risks, and demand from momentum-following funds have fueled bullion's 14% gain so far this year. Spot silver edged 0.2% higher to $28.03 per ounce, after hitting its highest levels since June 2021 on Wednesday.
Persons: Yeap Jun Rong, Jun Rong Organizations: Co Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, U.S
European markets are heading for a mixed open on Thursday as global investors digested the latest U.S. inflation data, which came in hotter than expected. European and U.S. stocks traded lower after the U.S. inflation data for March came in at 3.5% year on year, above the 3.4% expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones and 0.3 percentage points higher than in February. Markets had expected the U.S. Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in June, with further cuts expected later this year, but that shifted dramatically following the release, with traders now expecting the first cut in September, according to CME Group calculations. European investors' focus is on the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision Thursday, with the central bank being closely watched for clues that it could start to cut rates in summer.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Markets, U.S . Federal Reserve, Central Locations: U.S
The banking giant is expected to report earnings of $4.15 per share and $41.84 billion in revenue, according to LSEG. Many analysts also anticipate an upward revision to net interest income guidance, with the firm already forecasting $90 billion for the full year. Graseck views JPMorgan as one of the best-positioned stocks for upward net interest income revisions, also highlighting its significant excess capital relative to others within the firm's coverage. What else to watch If not during earnings, this upward guidance adjustment to net interest income could occur at JPMorgan's investor day in May, she said. Another key figure some analysts are watching is earnings from First Republic, which the company took over in May 2023 .
Persons: JPM, Piper Sandler's Scott Siefers, Morgan Stanley's Betsy Graseck, Graseck, Goldman Sachs, Richard Ramsden, America's Ebrahim Poonawala, Erika Najarian, NII, Wells, Mike Mayo, Ramsden Organizations: JPMorgan, Wall Street, Management, Bank, America's, First Locations: buybacks, First Republic, Republic
Stock futures dipped as Wall Street looked ahead to a second key inflation report. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 60 points, or about 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures also lost 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led Wednesday's losses, tumbling 1.09%, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.95%. Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the session in negative territory, with real estate bearing the brunt of the selling pressure and posting decline of more than 4%. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect wholesale prices to have grown by 0.3% in March, and 0.2% when excluding food and energy.
Persons: Stocks, , Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, CNBC's, Dow Jones, Wells Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Constellation Brands, JPMorgan, Citigroup Locations: Wells Fargo
Three months of inflation data have brought those expectations back down to earth. "Not that you've put a pin in inflation getting to the Fed's target, but it's not happening imminently." The 2-year Treasury note , which is especially sensitive to Fed rate moves, jumped to 4.93%, an increase of nearly 0.2 percentage point. The pricing in of seven rate cuts earlier this year was completely at odds with indications from Fed officials. However, when policymakers in December raised their "dot plot" indicator to three rate cuts from two projected in September, it set off a Wall Street frenzy.
Persons: Michael M, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, you've, There's, Today's, Phillip Neuhart, Joseph LaVorgna, Schwab's Sonders, Sonders Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty, Federal, Labor, CPI, Fed, Traders, First, Bank Wealth, Dow Jones, Treasury, Nikko Securities, Atlanta Fed Locations: New York City
watch nowThe risks of allowing inflation to persist still far outweighs the risk of triggering a recession. Mark Higgins author of "Investing in U.S. Financial History: Understanding the Past to Forecast the Future." This time around, the central bank is likely to remain extremely cautious, Higgins said, even if that means holding rates higher for longer. The Fed's 'two major mistakes'"The Fed has made two major mistakes in its history," according to Higgins, and those two missteps still influence the central bank's moves today. Indeed, Volcker was able to ultimately break inflation, but shockingly high interest rates also brought the economy to its knees (and the housing market to a standstill).
Persons: Mark Higgins, Higgins, Paul Volcker, Volcker Organizations: Fund, CNBC, Fed
Eric Baradat | AFP | Getty ImagesA hotter-than-expected consumer price index reading rattled markets Wednesday, but markets are buzzing about an even more specific prices gauge contained within the data — the so-called supercore inflation reading. Along with the overall inflation measure, economists also look at the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to find the true trend. The supercore gauge, which also excludes shelter and rent costs from its services reading, takes it even a step further. Today, he added, the picture is more complicated because some of the most stubborn components of services inflation are household necessities like car and housing insurance as well as property taxes. Sticky inflation problem
Persons: Jerome Powell, Eric Baradat, Tom Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick, Dow Jones, Stephen Stanley, Ian Lyngen, we're Organizations: AFP, Getty, O'Brien & Associates, Dow, Santander U.S, Wall, CPI, BMO Capital Markets, Fed Locations: Washington ,
watch nowFederal Reserve officials at their March meeting expressed concern that inflation wasn't moving lower quickly enough, though they still expected to cut interest rates at some point this year. "Participants generally noted their uncertainty about the persistence of high inflation and expressed the view that recent data had not increased their confidence that inflation was moving sustainably down to 2 percent," the minutes said. In what apparently was a lengthy discussion about inflation at the meeting, officials said geopolitical turmoil and rising energy prices remain risks that could push inflation higher. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., March 20, 2024. That part of the discussion was partly relevant considering the release came the same day that the Fed received more bad news on inflation.
Persons: FOMC, Jerome Powell, Elizabeth Frantz Organizations: Federal Reserve, Market, Fed, U.S . Federal, Federal, Committee, Reuters Locations: China, U.S, Washington , U.S
Yen feels the heat as U.S. Treasury yields climb
  + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The greenback added 0.03% to 151.87 yen , holding near a 34-year high of 151.975 yen hit last month as Japanese officials continued to ramp up their jawboning efforts in a bid to defend the currency. The threat of intervention from Tokyo has kept the dollar from breaching the closely-watched 152 yen level, even as U.S. Treasury yields — which the dollar/yen pair tends to closely track — climb. Sterling tacked on 0.04% to $1.2658, while the euro steadied at $1.0860, holding near a two-week high. Despite a rise in U.S. Treasury yields the dollar has failed to draw meaningful support as traders reassess their expectations of the pace and scale of Federal Reserve rate cuts priced in by markets for later this year. That's come even as the two-year Treasury yield rose to an over four-month high of 4.8010% on Tuesday, while the benchmark 10-year yield likewise held near an over four-month peak and last stood at 4.4278%.
Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Ryota Abe, Sterling, That's, It's, Ray Attrill Organizations: Treasury, Finance, SMBC, New Zealand, National Australia Bank Locations: U.S, Tokyo, United States
Scott Olson | Getty ImagesA closely watched Labor Department report due Wednesday is expected to show that not much progress is being made in the battle to bring down inflation. To be sure, inflation has come down dramatically from its peak above 9% in June 2022. That showed headline inflation running at 2.5% and the core rate at 2.8% in February. For their part, markets have grown nervous about the state of inflation and how it will affect rate policy. "I don't see a whole lot here that is going to move things magically the way they want to go," North said.
Persons: Scott Olson, We're, Dan North, North, they've Organizations: Getty, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Allianz Trade North America, Fed, Commerce, PCE Locations: Chicago , Illinois
India's central bank held its key interest rate for a seventh straight policy meeting on Friday as growth in the economy is expected to remain robust while inflation stays above the 4% target. The six-member monetary policy committee kept the main lending rate at 6.5%, in line with expectations. While low core inflation provides comfort, the uncertainty on food inflation remains a worry. "While low core inflation provides comfort, the uncertainty on food inflation remains a worry," said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank. "The increasing incidence of climate shocks remains a key upside risk to food prices," the rate setting panel said in its monetary policy statement.
Persons: Shaktikanta Das, Das, Upasna Bhardwaj, Devendra Kumar Pant Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Kotak Mahindra Bank, U.S, NSE, BSE, Research Locations: India
"We believe the recent back up in rates is probably the last best opportunity to extend duration," wrote Gargi Pal Chaudhuri, chief investment and portfolio strategist, Americas, at BlackRock. Generally speaking, the value of a bond goes up as interest rates go down, with longer-dated bonds seeing the biggest gains. While bond funds have been seeing inflows this year, there are still plenty of investors with excess cash in short-term accounts. Different funds that offer that type of exposure include the iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI) , the SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (SPTI) and the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) . Investors shouldn't go overboard with adding duration, because the long-term bonds on the market carry extra risk, Akullian said.
Persons: BlackRock's, Gargi Pal Chaudhuri, Kristy Akullian, It's, Akullian, Investors shouldn't Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Investment Company Institute, BlackRock, CNBC, Treasury Bond ETF, Research, Investors Locations: Americas, BlackRock, US10Y
They offer a dividend yield of at least 2%. Oil major Chevron made the list with a 4.1% dividend yield. More than half of analysts polled by FactSet maintain a buy rating on Chevron. Fast-food giant McDonald's also made the cut, with a 2.4% dividend yield. Nearly 53% of analysts polled by FactSet maintain a buy rating on McDonald's, with their average price targets forecasting 17% upside.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Mizuho, Gregory Francfort Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC Pro, Chevron, FactSet, Guggenheim, NextEra Energy
The central bank's current chief, Jerome Powell, is yet to defeat his mythical beast — and Wall Street is getting worried. Powell warned on Wednesday that the Fed's fight against inflation isn't over after annualized price growth accelerated to 3.2% in February. AdvertisementRaising the alarmBank of America analysts have suggested that stubborn inflation could mean the Fed doesn't start cutting rates until March next year. It's no wonder, then, that investors are waiting impatiently for the Fed to cut rates. Fundstrat's famously bullish boss, Tom Lee, proclaimed this week that it's dropping "like a rock" and the first rate cut is still likely to be in June.
Persons: , Paul Volcker, Jerome Powell, Powell, Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn, Einhorn, Greenlight, Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, Gary Shilling, Julia La Roche, We've, Merrill Lynch's, they've, Shilling, It's, Fundstrat's, Tom Lee Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, of America, CNBC, Trust, Wall Street, Fed
European markets look poised to open higher Thursday as investors look to build momentum following a shaky start to the new trading quarter. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed higher Wednesday, shaking off some of the negative sentiment after euro zone inflation fell more than expected. Thursday is light on the earnings front, while the release of notes from the European Central Bank's last monetary policy meeting is expected to shine some light on the path for interest rate cuts. In Asia-Pacific, markets rebounded following a selloff in the previous session. Meanwhile, U.S. stock futures inched higher overnight as investors digested comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Central, Rio Tinto, U.S . Federal Locations: Rio, Asia, Pacific, U.S
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Analysts issued a $131-per-share price target, implying roughly 23% upside from Wednesday's closing price of $106.42 per share. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Wall, We'll, we're, Jefferies, Meta's, Jim Cramer's, WYNN, AAPL, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Tech, Club, Microsoft, Apple, Treasury, Federal Reserve, U.S, Wynn Resorts, Mizuho Securities, Meta, Amazon Locations: bank's, Macau
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