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The decline in housing starts reported by the Commerce Department on Tuesday was the largest in a year and occurred across the board. Housing starts tumbled 11.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.283 million units last month, the lowest level since June 2020. Data for July was revised lower to show starts accelerating to a rate of 1.447 million units instead of the previously reported 1.452 million units. Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 4.3% to a rate of 941,000 units last month. They were boosted by a 14.8% surge in multi-family housing permits to a rate of 535,000 units.
Persons: Mike Blake, homebuilding, Daniel Vielhaber, Hilary, Freddie Mac, Goldman Sachs, Nancy Vanden Houten, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Federal, Nationwide, Reuters, U.S, Treasury, National Association of Home Builders, Oxford Economics, Realtors, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Rancho, San Diego , California, U.S, WASHINGTON, Columbus , Ohio, homebuilding, Northeast, Midwest, Wells Fargo, New York, Charlotte , North Carolina
At the same time that prices were cooling off, the rest of the economy seemed to be holding up. In this greased-pig economy, stability depends on how confident investors and policymakers are that they're close to catching the pig. Moving in a messIn the messy economy the pandemic left us, it's not easy to pinpoint exactly why inflation has been so stubborn. CPI inflation peaked at 9% in June 2022 and has been going down steadily since. But with inflation still above the Fed's goal, it's clear we need to recalibrate some on the demand side still.
Persons: it's, Jerome Powell, Mike Konczal, Konczal, we've, Price, proclivity, that's, Taylor Swift, we'd, Charles Evans, Christine Lagarde, Morgan, Jamie Dimon, Roosevelt, , you've, Justin Simon, Jasper Capital, Linette Lopez Organizations: Consumers, Federal, Roosevelt Institute, Fed, Chicago Fed, European Central Bank, Census Locations: American, America, Jasper
America is stuck in a greased-pig economy
  + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +10 min
At the same time that prices were cooling off, the rest of the economy seemed to be holding up. And consumers were so intent on spending money to have a good time that cities let Beyoncé dictate public transit. In this greased-pig economy, stability depends on how confident investors and policymakers are that they're close to catching the pig. Moving in a messIn the messy economy the pandemic left us, it's not easy to pinpoint exactly why inflation has been so stubborn. CPI inflation peaked at 9% in June 2022 and has been going down steadily since.
Persons: it's, Jerome Powell, Mike Konczal, Konczal, we've, Price, proclivity, that's, Taylor Swift, we'd, Charles Evans, Christine Lagarde, Morgan, Jamie Dimon, Roosevelt, , you've, Justin Simon, Jasper Capital, Linette Lopez Organizations: Consumers, Federal, Roosevelt Institute, Fed, Chicago Fed, European Central Bank, Census Locations: American, America, Jasper
Mortgage rates could decline if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates next year. Here are nine projections from experts on when the Fed's first rate cut will come. While these factors serve as deterrents for prospective buyers, interest rates may not stay this high forever. AdvertisementAdvertisementWhile declining interest rates wouldn't directly cause mortgage rates to fall, the two tend to move in the same direction. AdvertisementAdvertisementFebruaryOn August 31, Preston Caldwell, a Morningstar senior US economist, wrote in a note that he expected the Fed to start cutting interest rates in February.
Persons: Bob Michele, J.P, , we'll, Preston Caldwell, David Einhorn, Diane Swonk, Andrew Hollenhorst, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Simona Mocuta, Jeff Morton Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Federal, Bloomberg Television, Morgan Asset, Morningstar, KPMG, Citi, Reuters, State Street Global Advisors, DWS Locations: Wall, Silicon, North America's
There are signs that the country has now slipped into another era of brutal oppression, even as newly reelected President Emmerson Mnangagwa speaks publicly of “peace, love, harmony and tolerance." “It is the beginning of a new term and we are seeing people being abducted and tortured, people’s homes being burnt down, and lawyers arrested for simply doing their job,” said Doug Coltart, one of Nhende’s lawyers, who was himself arrested. The sight of an elected representative showing injuries from a beating isn't uncommon in Zimbabwe. The CCC and analysts say there is a clear post-election clampdown now that the international observers have left. “It was a sham election, a disputed election, a flawed election.
Persons: Womberaiishe, truncheons, Emmerson Mnangagwa, , , Doug Coltart, Robert Mugabe, Mnangagwa, Tapiwa Muchineripi, Coltart, bode, , ” Mnangagwa's, Nhende, ” Nhende, Morgan Tsvangirai, Mugabe, Mkwananzi, Siziba, clampdown, Rashweat Mukundu, Nelson Chamisa, Chamisa Organizations: Citizens Coalition, ZANU, CCC, Coltart, Amnesty, Human Rights, PF, Police, AP Locations: HARARE, Zimbabwe, Harare, Africa, Zimbabwean, africa
The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to hold rates steady in the week ahead, but key for investors will be the central bank's guidance on where it's headed from here. Investors are assessing a mixed batch of economic reports ahead of the Fed's September policy meeting. Meanwhile, August retail sales came in better than expected, jumping 0.6% against a 0.1% increase expected by economists. Housing data released in the week ahead could show whether housing demand remains solid. Week ahead calendar All times ET.
Persons: Bank's Rob Haworth, Jerome Powell, Powell, Hogan, Instacart, Arm's, Mills, Lisa Cook, , Jeff Cox, Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, Investors, PPI, Federal, Riley, FedEx, Housing, Philadelphia Fed, Darden, FactSet, Systems, National Bureau of Economic Research, Artificial Intelligence, PMI, SA, PMI Manufacturing SA, PMI Services SA Locations: NAHB, Toronto, Canada
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Thursday told investors he thinks Arm Holdings ' initial public offering infused "sidelined money" into the market, giving Wall Street a boost. "Suddenly all of this sidelined money comes pouring back in because the IPO market is a terrific barometer of market health." He emphasized that Arm's IPO on its own hasn't changed market conditions, but it has changed how investors feel. To Cramer, rising rates from the Federal Reserve have controlled the market's narrative since it began tightening and gave bears "the upper hand intellectually" most of the time. "The bears don't have the upper hand emotionally, at least not today.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, There's, Cramer Organizations: United Auto Workers union, Federal Reserve
Celal Gunes | Anadolu Agency | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineAt first glance, August's CPI report seems bad news. And gasoline prices have actually retreated 3.3% from a year ago, suggesting that they're still on a downward trend in the long run. Indeed, the annual measure of core CPI still dropped from 4.7% in July to 4.3% in August.
Persons: Celal, we've, Andrew Hunter, Lisa Sturtevant, Sturtevant, Kayla Bruun, " Bruun, Dow, , Jeff Cox, Greg Iacurci Organizations: Anadolu Agency, Getty, CNBC, CPI, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Capital Economics, Bright MLS, Morning, Markets, 3M, Caterpillar, Nasdaq Locations: Virginia, Tesla
The freight recession that followed the pandemic demand spike is showing signs of easing. A new report from Motive showed fewer carriers are leaving the trucking market, and freight rates have been relatively consistent for six months. Still, truck drivers saw fewer miles and hours driven in August, and diesel prices are climbing. Another driver of this could be a stabilization of the market, too, as many smaller carriers have already been driven out of the market. At the time that had suggested the freight recession wouldn't be limited to only smaller-name fleets, Motive said.
Persons: Carrier Organizations: Motive, Service, Drivers Locations: Wall, Silicon
U.S. retail sales also climbed 0.6% last month, against estimates of a 0.2% rise, while initial jobless claims for the latest week fell to 220.000. "We've been waiting to see exactly which of these inflation data trends would kind of knock the market off its axis. "It's likely that while the Federal Reserve won't love the August inflation data, it also is soft enough that they likely won't react to it either. ROBERT PAVLIK, SENIOR PORTFOLIO MANAGER, DAKOTA WEALTH, CONNECTICUT"Most of the rise in prices is coming from energy. "I still believe we have seen the last of the rate hikes, but there is a possibility small that November still has the potential to bring another rate hike.
Persons: Robert Graham, King, King of Prussia, Mark Makela, SAMEER SAMANA, WELLS, We've, haven't, GREG BASSUK, PETER ANDERSEN, ANDERSEN, ROBERT PAVLIK, BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Reuters, CHARLOTTE, Federal, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: Prussia, United States, King, King of Prussia , Pennsylvania, U.S, WELLS FARGO, NORTH CAROLINA, BOSTON, DAKOTA, CONNECTICUT, WISCONSIN
Retail sales rose 0.6% last month. Higher gasoline prices boosted producer prices in August, other data from the Labor Department showed on Thursday. Excluding gasoline stations, retail sales rose 0.2% last month. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, rose 0.3% after increasing 0.8% in July. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales edged up 0.1% in August.
Persons: Mike Blake, Christopher Rupkey, Goldman Sachs, Nancy Vanden Houten, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Reuters, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Labor Department, Treasury, delinquencies, New York Federal Reserve, Gross, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: Carlsbad , California, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York
Retail sales rose 0.6% in August, compared with a revised 0.5% increase in July, according to a report issued by the Commerce Department on Thursday. The surge in gas prices is coursing through the economy and could slow down shoppers' momentum heading into the critical holiday shopping season. Excluding gas sales, retail sales were just up 0.2% for August, according to the Commerce Department report. Sales at gas stations rose a robust 5.2%, while furniture and home furnishings stores saw a 1% drop in sales. August's uptick in retail sales, which marks the fifth straight monthly gain, reflects the economy’s resiliency despite a still tough economic environment.
Persons: August's, , Michael Pearce, , Anne Hatfield, They’re, Kendra Scott, Chris Rugaber, Anne Organizations: Commerce Department, U.S . Labor Department, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, AAA, Amazon Prime, U.S, Oxford Economics, , Walmart, Pride, AP Locations: Washington
In a recent video, he highlighted three cities where prices are still a decent way off their highs despite favorable fundamentals like wage growth and population growth. When it comes to population growth, Austin grew by 2.7% between 2021 and 2022, according to Census Bureau data. The list incorporates cities seeing economic and population growth. Both wage and population growth are theoretically supportive of home prices as they support demand. "This means all three markets SHOULD be primed for home prices to increase, BUT sellers are still dropping prices.
Persons: Dave Meyer, Shutterstock, Meyer, there's, Austin, Phoenix, bode Organizations: National Association of Realtors Locations: Phoenix , Arizona, Austin , Texas, Provo , Utah, Austin, Provo, West, Phoenix, Utah County
The consumer price index increased by 0.6% last month, the largest gain since June 2022. Gasoline prices, which jumped 10.6% after rising 0.2% in July, accounted for more than half of the increase in the CPI last month. While that marked the second straight month of a pick-up in annual inflation, year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. The so-called core CPI had increased 0.2% for two consecutive months. In the 12 months through August, the core CPI increased 4.3%.
Persons: bode, Phillip Neuhart, Chris Zaccarelli, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, First Citizens Bank, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Treasury, Independent, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Financial, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford Motor, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, U.S, Charlotte , North Carolina
Wednesday, Sept. 13, 2023: Cramer wants a bigger position in this auto nameJim Cramer and Jeff Marks break down August's Consumer Price Index report and how it will impact the market. Jim emphasizes why investors should buy one software holding right now. Finally, Jim and Jeff talk about UBS initiating a buy rating on a Club stock and why they like the call.
Persons: Cramer, Jim Cramer, Jeff Marks, Jim, Jeff Organizations: UBS
Mortgage rates are a little lower now compared to where they ended last week. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 30-year Fixed Mortgage RatesLast week, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.12%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates were 6.52% last week, a three-point drop compared to the prior week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased over three percentage points in 2022.
Persons: you'll, Freddie Mac Organizations: Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Zillow Locations: Chevron
CNBC Daily Open: No news is good news
  + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Source: NYSEThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. There was, for the first day during the week, no significant news, whether good or bad. To markets already jolted by a downbeat August and desperate for more signs of the interest rate trajectory, good news was bad news and bad news was bad news. But this time, any good news — in other words, lower-than-expected CPI — will be straightforwardly good.
Persons: Bryce Doty, Dow Organizations: NYSE, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Sit Investment Locations: U.S
CNBC Daily Open: Markets cheered the lack of news
  + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Every bit of information that could move markets during the week indeed moved markets — negatively. To markets already jolted by a downbeat August and desperate for more signs of the interest rate trajectory, good news was bad news and bad news was bad news. This week looks to be different because there's no lack of heavy-hitting economic data, in the form of August's CPI report.
Persons: Michael M, Bryce Doty, Dow Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Sit Investment Locations: New York City, U.S
The stock market may be losing one of its leaders heading into the release of key inflation reports next week that could clarify the path of future monetary policy. Apple weakness However, even after Apple's drop this week, some investors expect to see further declines in Apple because of deteriorating stock price momentum. A hotter-than-expected price report will likely add to investor concern over sticky inflation and tighter monetary policy, weighing on equities. Monday Sept. 11 Earnings: Oracle Tuesday Sept. 12 6 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index (August) Wednesday Sept. 13 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (August) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (09/09) 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (August) 8:30 a.m. Retail Sales (August) 10 a.m. Business Inventories (July) Earnings: Lennar , Adobe , Copart Friday Sept. 15 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Tim Cook, selloff, Wolfe Research's Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Dan Niles, Satori, Wolfe's Ginsberg, Alex McGrath, FactSet, isn't, Price, , Michael Bloom, Gabriel Cortes Organizations: Apple, Wolfe Research, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Tech, Satori Fund, U.S . West Texas, ICE Brent, Federal Reserve, Wealth, Traders, United Auto Workers, UAW, Big Three, General Motors, Ford Motor, Treasury Budget, Retail, Adobe, Price, Index, Manufacturing Locations: China, Apple, U.S, @CL, Michigan
File photo: A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie", is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto, January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Mark Blinch/file photo Acquire Licensing RightsTORONTO, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Analysts have cut their bullish near-term forecasts for the Canadian dollar as China's economy weakens and the gap between U.S. and Canadian bond yields grows, but still expect the currency to be stronger in a year, a Reuters poll showed. "The loonie has lost a few feathers in recent weeks," said Stefane Marion, chief economist and strategist at National Bank of Canada. "Widening interest rate differentials with the U.S. and weaker commodity prices due to a slowing Chinese economy are keeping the CAD in check." Canada is a major producer of commodities, so the loonie tends to be sensitive to the global growth outlook.
Persons: Mark Blinch, Stefane Marion, Marion, Fergal Smith, Sujith Pai, Devayani, Pranoy, Jan Harvey Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, National Bank of Canada, U.S, Bank of Canada, Thomson Locations: Toronto, Canada, U.S
HONG KONG (AP) — China's exports and imports both fell in August from a year earlier, reflecting tepid global demand that is adding to pressures on its slowing economy. Customs data released Thursday showed exports for August slumped 8.8% to $284.87 billion in the fourth straight month of decline. The total trade surplus fell to $68.36 billion from $80.6 billion in July. China’s imports from Russia, mostly oil and gas, increased 13.3% from a year earlier to $11.52 billion. Exports to the European Union tumbled 10.5% from the same time last year to $41.3 billion, while imports of European goods declined 2.5% to $24.56 billion.
Persons: ” Julian Evans, Pritchard, , August's Organizations: , Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, Kremlin, European Union Locations: HONG KONG, Europe, Asia, U.S, Russia, Ukraine
UK builders suffer sharp fall in orders as rates rise -PMI
  + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Workers stand on scaffolding at a residential building in London, Britain, March 7, 2016. Builders cited weaker economic conditions, cutbacks to new building projects and local planning delays as factors holding back house-building activity. S&P said total new orders for the construction sector fell at the fastest pace since May 2020. "Resilient demand for commercial work and infrastructure projects are helping to keep the construction sector in expansion mode for now," Moore said. However, forward-looking measures of the construction PMI fell, with business activity expectations for the year ahead the weakest since January.
Persons: Toby Melville, Tim Moore, Moore, Suban Abdulla, William Schomberg, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS, P, P Global Market Intelligence, Builders, Bank of England's, PMI, Thomson Locations: London, Britain
Wednesday, Sept. 6, 2023: Cramer says this retail stock is a 'quiet winner'Jim Cramer and Jeff Marks discuss why the market hasn't been able to keep up the momentum of August's gains. Jim and Jeff talk about a price target raise from TD Cowen for one consumer staples name. Finally, Jim and Jeff discuss a retail stock and why Jim believes it's a 'quiet winner.'
Persons: Cramer, Jim Cramer, Jeff Marks, Jeff, Cowen, Jim, it's
The tech-dominated Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq-100 indexes notched their worst month of the year in August, and their weakest performance since December 2022. Last month's pullback came as no shock to many veteran technology investors. Big August losers included popular AI-connected names Marvell Technology and Advanced Micro Devices , which shed more than 10% and 7%, respectively. Building small positions Amid the August pullback, Meeks built positions in some favored AI names. MRVL 1M mountain Marvell Technology shares pull back Munster used August's volatility to scoop up some shares of Etsy .
Persons: Paul Meeks, who's, we've, Meeks, Fortinet, Gene Munster, he's, Greg Bassuk, Bassuk Organizations: Nasdaq, Nvidia, Marvell Technology, Devices, Meta, Apple, Marvell, Broadcom, Taiwan Semiconductor, Cadence Design Systems, Munster, AXS Locations: Etsy
With U.S. crude oil prices rallying on Tuesday, Nolte also cited recent strength in oil prices as a damper to the Fed's efforts to push inflation back to 2%. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 29, 2023. The Dow Jones Transport index (.DJT) finished off 2.2%, weighed down by a slide in airline stocks as rising oil prices implied higher fuel costs. Shares of Airbnb (ABNB.O) rallied 7% while Blackstone (BX.N) added 3.6% on news that their stocks would join the S&P 500 index. The S&P 500 posted 12 new 52-week highs and 25 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 50 new highs and 142 new lows.
Persons: Blackstone, Christopher Waller, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Nolte, Sam Stovall, Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, advancers, Sinéad Carew, Shristi, Arun Koyyur, Shounak Dasgupta, Richard Chang Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Monday, Monday . U.S, Treasury, Sylvest Wealth Management, Traders, Labor, CFRA Research, Dow Jones, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Transport, United Airlines, U.S, Blackstone, Oracle, Barclays, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Monday ., Elmhurst , Illinois, New York City, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, New York, Bengaluru
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