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☆ TSX closes below 20,000 mark as oil prices slide
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] The Art Deco facade of the original Toronto Stock Exchange building is seen on Bay Street in Toronto, Ontario, Canada January 23, 2019. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended down 252.09 points, or 1.25%, at 19,990.17, its lowest closing level since Nov. 21. All 10 of the TSX's major sectors lost ground, including a decline of 3.5% for the energy sector. That matched the decline for U.S. crude prices , which settled at $74.25 a barrel, as global demand concerns weighed. Reporting by Fergal Smith; Additional reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Will DunhamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Toronto home prices fall 1% in November; down roughly 19% from peak
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

TORONTO, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Home prices in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) fell in November as rapidly rising interest rates weighed on the city's once-red-hot housing market, data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) showed on Tuesday. The average price of a GTA home fell to C$1.08 million ($794,527) in November, down 1% from October and down 7.2% from a year ago. Prices were about 19% below February's peak. "Increased borrowing costs represent a short-term shock to the housing market," TRREB President Kevin Crigger said in a statement. ($1 = 1.3593 Canadian dollars)Reporting by Fergal Smith in Toronto Editing by Matthew LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Canada's Ivey PMI shows activity growing at faster pace in November
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

TORONTO, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Canadian economic activity expanded at a faster pace in November and a measure of price pressures cooled, Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data showed on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted index rose to 51.4 in November from 50.1 in October. The Ivey PMI measures the month to month variation in economic activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers from across Canada. The gauge of employment dipped to an adjusted 54.3 from 54.6 in October, while the prices index was at 63.5, down from 69.8. The unadjusted PMI edged up to 51.5 from 51.4.

☆ Canada exports rose in October helped by weak dollar
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Ismail Shakil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Exports rose 1.5%, helped by higher exports of medicinal products as well as gold bars and coins to the United States, Statscan said. "Canada's merchandise trade surplus widened in October, with a weaker Canadian dollar providing a helping hand. When expressed in U.S. dollars, Canadian exports were down 1.3% in October, and imports decreased 2.2%, Statscan said. Exports of farm, fishing and intermediate food products rose 10.2% in October to a record-high C$5.5 billion, helped by canola and wheat. The Canadian dollar was trading at 1.3625 to the greenback, or 73.39 U.S. cents, down 0.3% on the day.

☆ Canada's deep yield curve inversion adds to BoC rate hike dilemma
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-04 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Canada's central bank says that the economy needs to slow from overheated levels in order to ease inflation. The yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond has fallen nearly 100 basis points below the 2-year yield, marking the biggest inversion of Canada's yield curve in Refinitiv data going back to 1994 and deeper than the U.S. Treasury yield curve inversion. The depth of Canada's curve inversion is signaling a "bad recession" not a mild one, said David Rosenberg, chief economist & strategist at Rosenberg Research. Still, 3-month measures of underlying inflation that are closely watched by the BoC - CPI-median and CPI-trim - show price pressures easing. "The yield curve would not invert to this extent unless investors also believed that inflation will drop back down toward the Bank's target," said Brown.

☆ Pakistan repays $1 bln international bond -central bank spokesman
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-03 | by ( Gibran Naiyyar Peshimam | Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

ISLAMABAD, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Pakistan repaid a $1 billion international bond, the central bank spokesman said on Friday, amidst growing uncertainty about the country's ability to meet external financing obligations. "The payment (was) made to Citibank New York," State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) spokesman Abid Qamar told Reuters in a message. The bond repayment, which matures on Dec. 5, totals $1.08 billion, the central bank chief said last week. During the week ended Nov. 25, SBP reserves stood at $7,498.7 million. Saudi Arabia on Friday also extended the term of a $3 billion deposit it has in Pakistan's foreign reserves.

The loonie was trading 0.2% lower at 1.3455 to the greenback, or 74.32 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3421 to 1.3520. For the week, it was on track to decline 0.6%. Canada added 10,100 jobs in November, broadly in line with the forecast gain of 5,000, while the jobless rate fell to 5.1%, Statistics Canada said. The U.S. dollar rallied against a basket of major currencies and equity markets globally fell. Canadian government bond yields climbed across the curve, tracking the move in U.S. Treasuries.

☆ TSX pares weekly gain as investors brace for further rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TORONTO (Reuters) - Canada’s main stock index fell on Friday, including declines for financials and technology, as investors weighed U.S. and Canadian jobs data that could help determine the pace of central bank interest rate hikes. FILE PHOTO: The Art Deco facade of the original Toronto Stock Exchange building is seen on Bay Street in Toronto, Ontario, Canada January 23, 2019. REUTERS/Chris Helgren/File PhotoThe Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended down 39.79 points, or 0.2%, at 20,485.66, after posting on Thursday its highest closing level in nearly six months. U.S. stocks fell, although recovering from their lowest levels, as the November payrolls report fueled expectations the Federal Reserve would maintain its path of interest rate hikes. Canada added 10,100 jobs in November, broadly in line with forecasts, while the jobless rate fell to 5.1%.

Canada added 10,100 jobs in November, broadly in line with the forecast gain of 5,000, while the jobless rate fell to 5.1%, Statistics Canada said. Analysts had forecast the jobless rate would tick up to 5.3%. The November report follows a monster gain of 108,300 jobs in October and comes just days ahead of a Bank of Canada policy-setting meeting on Wednesday. The central bank has raised rates by 350 basis points since March, one of its steepest tightening cycles ever. The small jobs gain was entirely for full-time work and mostly in the services sector, while the participation rate edged down to 64.8% from 64.9% in October.

☆ C$ posts weekly decline as U.S. jobs data rattles investors
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Fergal Smith | Asif Shahzad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The loonie was trading 0.4% lower at 1.3485 to the greenback, or 74.16 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3421 to 1.3520. U.S. stock indexes fell as the U.S. jobs data reignited investor concerns about the Federal Reserve continuing on its path of aggressive monetary policy tightening. Canada added 10,100 jobs in November, broadly in line with the forecast gain of 5,000, while the jobless rate fell to 5.1%. The 2-year dipped nearly one basis point to 3.786%, while the 10-year was down 3.8 basis points at 2.796%. Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ C$ dips against greenback; falls harder vs other G10 currencies
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

It was the only G10 currency to lose ground against the U.S. dollar . The greenback fell 1.1% against a basket of major currencies. "In a weak U.S. dollar environment, the Canadian dollar often lags," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC. Chances that the BoC would hike by 50 basis points rather than 25 basis points at a policy decision next Wednesday have fallen to roughly 10% from 30% since Powell's comments, money market data showed. The Canadian 10-year yield fell 9.3 basis points to 2.842%, its lowest level since Aug. 18.

☆ Toronto market seen higher if economic downturn not too severe: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"If the downturn doesn't prove to be severe, equity markets could stabilize even as economic data and earnings underwhelm," said Angelo Kourkafas, an investment strategist at Edward Jones in St. Louis, Missouri. Canada's economy is likely to be particularly sensitive to higher rates after households borrowed heavily during the pandemic to participate in a red-hot housing market. "While corporate earnings will likely continue to decline for many industries, we see continued growth in earnings across most commodities," said Arthur Salzer, chief executive officer of Northland Wealth Management. Adding to investor enthusiasm, the TSX last Wednesday closed above the 200-day moving average for the first time since May 4. (Other stories from the Reuters global stock markets poll package:)Reporting by Fergal Smith; polling by Susobhan Sarkar and Sarupya GangulyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Will Smith knows that fans may be hesitant to see his first movie since slapping Chris Rock at the Oscars. That’s what I’m hoping for. The aftermath of the incident has included several Smith apologies and even more reactions on social media. Smith released his first public apology to Rock the day after the slap amid mounting backlash. “Anyone who says words hurt has never been punched in the face,” Rock said, later adding, “I’m not a victim.

☆ Canada posts C$1.72 bln surplus over first six months of 2022/23
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

OTTAWA, NOV 25 (Reuters) - Canada recorded a C$1.72 billion ($1.29 billion) budget surplus for the first six months of the 2022/23 fiscal year, helped by higher tax revenues, the finance ministry said on Friday. By comparison, Canada posted a C$68.57 billion deficit in the period from April to September 2021. Program expenses were down 17.9%, largely reflecting lower transfers to individuals and businesses as COVID-19 support wound down, the finance ministry said. On a monthly basis, Canada posted a deficit of C$2.16 billion in September, compared to the C$11.41 billion deficit recorded a year ago. ($1 = 1.3382 Canadian dollars)(Reporting by Ismail Shakil, editing by Fergal Smith)((ismail.shakil@tr.com))Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ TSX notches 5-month high as tech and industrials climb
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended up 62.25 points, or 0.3%, at 20,282.26, its highest closing level since June 9. Wall Street also gained ground after minutes from the Fed's November meeting showed interest rate hikes may slow soon. The industrials sector, which includes railroad and airline stocks, rose 0.4%, while technology ended 1.9% higher. It was boosted by a 22.6% jump in shares of Converge Technology Solutions (CTS.TO) after the company commenced a strategic review process, including evaluations on a possible sale, merger or divesture. Reporting by Fergal Smith; Additional reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Chris ReeseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

In a surprise move, the Canadian government said earlier this month that it had decided to cease issuance of real return bonds (RRBs), citing low demand. That makes them an expensive form of financing for the government, but cost should not be the only consideration, investors say. The median allocation by defined benefit pension plans, a major category, to RRBs was 5.2% in 2021, data covering members of the Pension Investment Association of Canada (PIAC) shows. U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) could act as a proxy but are not an exact hedge against Canadian inflation. Breakeven rates are the difference between yields on nominal and real return bonds.

☆ TSX dips as lower oil prices pressure energy shares
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Fergal Smith | Simon Jessop | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SummarySummary Companies TSX ends down 36.82 points, or 0.2%, at 19,957.96Energy falls 2.3%; oil settles 1.5% lowerMaterials sector loses 1.3%Restaurant Brands gains 7%TORONTO, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index fell on Wednesday as lower oil prices weighed on energy shares but gains for consumer-related stocks helped limit the index's decline. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended down 36.82 points, or 0.2%, at 19,957.96. The Toronto market's energy sector fell 2.3% as oil prices settled 1.5% lower at $85.59 a barrel concerns over rising COVID-19 cases in China. The materials group, which includes precious and base metals miners and fertilizer companies, lost 1.3%, while technology ended 0.7% lower. Shares of Restaurant Brands International Inc (QSR.TO) ended 7% higher, helping drive the consumer discretionary sector to a 1.3% gain.

☆ TSX rises as investors cheer U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended up 72.97 points, or 0.4%, at 19,994.78. "It is a growing sense that the Fed could start to slow the pace of interest rate hikes." Canadian inflation data for October, due on Wednesday, could help guide expectations for further tightening from the central bank. Halfway into November, the TSX looked set for its second straight month of gains as investors welcomed signs of decade-high inflation cooling. Reporting by Fergal Smith; Additional reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Alistair BellOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Canadian dollar slides as crypto selloff spooks investors
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Fergal Smith | Rocky Swift | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The loonie weakened 0.7% to 1.3520 per greenback, or 73.96 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3412 to 1.3541. Investors fretted about the financial health of major cryptocurrency exchange FTX, with some questioning whether a rescue deal from bigger rival Binance would materialize. Investors were shifting focus to U.S. inflation data on Thursday for clues on the path of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Its governor, Tiff Macklem, is due on Thursday to give a speech on the evolution of the Canadian labour market. Canadian government bond yields eased across a flatter curve, with the 10-year down 5.8 basis points at 3.421%.

☆ Canadian dollar dips as investors weigh U.S. midterm vote
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Canadian dollar dips 0.1% against the greenbackLoonie trades in a range of 1.3414 to 1.3466Price of U.S. oil falls 0.5%Canadian bond yields trade mixed across curveTORONTO, Nov 9 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, pulling back from a seven-week high, as oil prices fell and investors awaited the results of the closely watched U.S. midterm elections. Global equity markets (.WORLD) dipped and the U.S. dollar (.DXY) rose against a basket of major currencies as control of the U.S. Congress and Democratic President Joe Biden's agenda was unclear after the midterm vote. U.S. crude prices were down 0.5% at $88.45 a barrel, while the Canadian dollar weakened 0.1% to 1.3440 to the greenback, or 74.40 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3414 to 1.3466. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem is due on Thursday to give a speech on the evolution of the Canadian labour market. Canadian government bond yields were mixed across the curve, with the 10-year up half a basis point at 3.484%.

☆ TSX rises to 2-month high as materials sector jumps
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Fergal Smith | Juliette Portala | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended up 114.40 points, or 0.6%, at 19,660.31, its highest closing level since Sept. 14. The materials group, which includes precious and base metals miners and fertilizer companies, added 4.7%. Copper rose 1.7%, while gold was up 2.2% at about $1,712 per ounce as the U.S. dollar and bond yields fell. Its shares rose 12.4% after the company reported quarterly results. Reporting by Fergal Smith in Toronto Additional reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru Editing by Matthew LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bank of Canada focus on more timely inflation data lowers overshoot risk
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation tends to be reported on a year-over-year basis to smooth out fluctuations that occur in shorter-term measures. Some forecasters expect Canada's economy to dip into recession next year along with a downturn in global activity. Twelve-month rates include price growth that occurred much earlier in the year, economists explain. Inflation is likely to be more persistent after it spread from goods prices into slower-moving items, such as wages and services. Still, the BoC has opened the door to slowing the pace of tightening to more normal steps of 25 basis points.

☆ Canada posts blowout job gain in October, unemployment rate unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Julie Gordon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] A help wanted sign at a store along Queen Street West in Toronto Ontario, Canada June 10, 2022. The economy added a net 108,300 jobs last month, easily beating forecasts for 10,000 new jobs, while the jobless rate was unchanged at 5.2%. The blowout gain was entirely in full-time work, spread across both the goods and services sectors. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 50 basis points to 3.75% last week and said while more increases would still be needed, it was nearing the end of its tightening campaign. The core-age unemployment rate stands at 4.2%, slightly above July's record low, but in a historically tight range last seen in the 1970s.

☆ VIEW Canada cuts 2023 GDP forecast but says economy to avoid recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TORONTO, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Thursday unveiled an economic update, slashing 2023 real GDP forecast to 0.7%, but said the economy would avoid a recession, while announcing C$11.3 billion ($8.2 billion) in new spending this fiscal year and next. The so-called Fall Economic Statement also proposes a refundable tax credits for clean technologies, a 2% tax on share buybacks, among others. STORIES: read more read moreLINK:https://budget.gc.ca/fes-eea/2022/report-rapport/FES-EEA-2022-en.pdfCOMMENTSRANDALL BARTLETT, SENIOR DIRECTOR OF CANADIAN ECONOMICS AT DESJARDINS"As expected - big windfall to revenues coming from higher inflation and a stronger economy, tighter labour market." We know that once you add in provinces we're up closer to C$23 billion (in affordability measures)." Reporting by Fergal Smith, Ismail Shakil Editing by Denny ThomasOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Inflation has edged down over the last three months to 6.9% in September from 8.1% in June. The fiscal update showed "significantly weaker growth" next year that previous forecast, but the baseline numbers did not foresee a recession. It also cut its deficit forecast for this fiscal year by almost a third to C$36.4 billion from the C$52.8 billion deficit forecast in April. The update also included a tax on corporate stock buybacks similar to a measure introduced by United States. The fiscal update document forecast Canada's debt-to-GDP ratio would be 42.3% in 2022/23, versus 45.1% forecast in April, falling to 37.3% in 2027/28.

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