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Russian Oil Prices Surge, Put Sanctions to Test
  + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Joe Wallace | Andrew Duehren | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Illustration: WSJU.S.-led sanctions designed to throttle Moscow’s fossil-fuel income face a new challenge: a big jump in the price Russia gets for its oil. Booming demand in India and China has pushed the price of Urals crude, Russia’s main grade of oil, up to about $55 a barrel from a daily low of $35 in January, according to commodities-data firm Argus Media. The rally contrasts with a retreat in broader oil markets driven by weakening demand in the U.S. and Europe as economies there slow.
Tankers carrying Russian oil command a "sanctions premium," but those margins have narrowed, Argus data shows. "Rates are likely to remain under pressure throughout April and into May as chartering is muted and looming OPEC+ cuts keep nibbling at shipowners' confidence." Argus data shared with Insider showed that the sanctions premium for Russian-origin cargoes from the Black Sea to the west coast of India narrowed by 50¢ per barrel month-on-month. Still, he added that the premium could hold for some time longer even in a weakening market, as sanctioned cargoes remain a valuable business. Tracking data from Kpler showed earlier this month that total Russian oil exports have now surpassed pre-war levels.
Tucker Carlson's exit from Fox News wiped $962 million from the network's market value on Monday. But analysts are torn about the long-term impact of the host's ouster on Fox Corp stock. But financial analysts are torn about the impact Carlson's departure will have on Fox Corporation's stock — which lost about $962 million in market value on Monday after news broke of the departure. Matthew Tuttle, the CEO and CIO of Tuttle Capital Management, told Bloomberg that Carlson's exit is "definitely going to leave a mark on Fox." But not all analysts shared the gloomy projection for Fox Corp stock in the long term.
The spot price for benchmark 62% iron ore for delivery to north China , as assessed by commodity price reporting agency Argus, dropped to $110.25 a tonne on April 21, the lowest since Dec. 20. China produces just over half of the world's steel and buys more than 70% of seaborne iron ore, with the main exporters being Australia, Brazil and South Africa. It's also the case the outlook for iron ore demand in China is not particularly clear cut, with some positive macro drivers but also areas of concern. This implies that steel mills may be looking to increase iron ore imports, especially if they plan to keep production at relatively high levels. Overall, the outlook for China's iron ore and steel demand is less assured than it was at the start of the year, when optimism over the economic re-opening abounded.
Two of them were Citi and Bank of America , both of which exceeded forecasts on revenue and other metrics. Bank of America: 'Superior resiliency' Bank of America continues to demonstrate a "Goliath is Winning" theme, Wells Fargo said in an April 18 note. The bank's earnings came in at 94 cents per share, above Wall Street's estimate of 82 cents, according to Refinitiv. Wells Fargo gave Bank of America a price target of $45, or potential upside of nearly 50% from Wednesday's close. Wells Fargo gave Citi a price target of $62, or potential 24% upside from Wednesday's close — smaller than the upside it gave Bank of America.
Bank of America reiterates Alphabet as buy Bank of America says it's bullish heading into Alphabet earnings next week. JPMorgan reiterates Amazon as a best idea JPMorgan says it's bullish heading into the e-commerce giant's earnings report next week. "We continue to see streaming music & audio as an attractive growth market and remain OW WMG and SPOT." Stephens initiates SentinelOne as overweight Stephens initiated the cyber security company with an overweight and says it has "best-in-class growth." JPMorgan reiterates Charles Schwab as overweight JPMorgan says Charles Schwab could be worth more if it were to "de-bank."
April 18 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc's (GS.N) profit fell 19% as dealmaking and bond trading slumped in the first quarter and it lost money on the sale of some assets in its consumer business. Goldman booked a $470 million loss on the sale of some loans from Marcus, dragging down first quarter results. The logo for Goldman Sachs is seen on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, New York, U.S., November 17, 2021. But deposits held in the Marcus business remain core to Goldman and are not under review, a source familiar with the matter had told Reuters earlier this year. Goldman's lackluster trading results contrast with those of Bank of America Corp (BAC.N), which also reported earnings on Tuesday.
This is relevant to Apple as we estimate that Google pays Apple ~$20bn for being the default search engine across iOS devices." Goldman Sachs reiterates Microsoft as buy Goldman says it's staying bullish heading into Microsoft earnings next week. Deutsche Bank reiterates Disney as buy Deutsche Bank says it sees an "attractive setup" heading into earnings in early May. HSBC upgrades Nvidia to buy from reduce HSBC said in its double upgrade of Nvidia that it's "all about AI." Deutsche Bank reiterates Amazon as buy Deutsche says it's standing by its buy rating on the e-commerce giant ahead of earnings later this month.
China's coal imports leapt to a three-year high in March, with official data showing arrivals of 41.17 million tonnes, up 151% from the same month in 2022. China's coal imports from Australia were 2.73 million tonnes, with 2.13 million assessed as the thermal grade used in power plants, with 417,576 tonnes being coking coal used to make steel. Chinese utilities used to be major buyers of Australian thermal coal with an energy content of 5,500 kilocalories per kg (kcal/kg). This advantage is driving Chinese buying of Australian coal, with Kpler estimating that arrivals in April will reach 5.04 million tonnes, with thermal coal accounting for 4.72 million tonnes. The question for the seaborne coal market is whether China's renewed interest in Australian coal is a sustainable trend, or whether it is simply opportunistic buying that will wither if the price advantage slips.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe have almost a problem of 'too much gas around' for this summer, analyst saysNatasha Fielding of Argus Media discusses the "significant risks" for the coming winter.
Employees of American Airlines help check in passengers at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport on January 11, 2023 in Arlington, Virginia. Here's a look at some of the stocks making the biggest moves on Wednesday. MongoDB — Shares jumped 9.4% after Morgan Stanley upgraded MongoDB to overweight from equal weight, citing the software company's leadership in cloud optimization initiatives. American Airlines , Delta Air Lines , United Airlines — Shares of the major airline companies were under pressure on Wednesday after American Airlines updated its first-quarter guidance. Shares of American fell more than 9%, while United dropped about 2% and Delta shed nearly 6%.
UBS upgrades Goldman Sachs to buy from neutral UBS said in its upgrade of the banking giant that it's "resilient." "We are upgrading GS to Buy from Neutral as the firm appears well positioned to outperform amidst elevated levels of market volatility." Morgan Stanley upgrades MongoDB to overweight from equal weight Morgan Stanley said in its upgrade of the developer data platform that it has "share gain opportunities." Morgan Stanley names Box a top pick Morgan Stanley named the cloud content management company as a top pick and says it sees more margin upside ahead. Morgan Stanley upgrades Evercore to overweight from equal weight Morgan Stanley said the investment bank has "underappreciated resiliency."
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China produces more than half of the world's steel and buys about 70% of global seaborne iron ore, one of two key raw materials for steel, the other being coking coal. It's not just prices that are declining, there are signs that iron ore volumes and steel output are also weakening slightly. China's iron ore imports are estimated by Refinitiv at 94.17 million tonnes in March, which translates to a daily rate of 3.04 million tonnes. What the drop in prices, seaborne iron ore imports and steel output appear to be pointing to is a moderation in demand expectations in China. This suggests that iron ore and coking coal demand will remain solid, but may not rise much over 2023 as a whole.
Costco — The wholesale retailer's shares dropped 2% after the company announced sales dipped 1.1% year over year in March. Bed Bath & Beyond — The stock tumbled 7% after the retailer proposed a stock split as it attempts to avoid bankruptcy. Analysts covering the stock welcomed the news, with Raymond James upgrading shares to outperform from market perform Thursday morning. Leslie's , Pool — Shares of pool company Leslie's popped 5.4%, while Pool gained 1%, after both names were upgraded by Loop Capital to buy from hold. Craig-Hallum downgraded the stock to hold from buy and Rosenblatt pulled its rating to neutral from buy following the guidance cut.
NEW DELHI/LONDON, April 6 (Reuters) - Global fuel suppliers are turning to longer and costlier routes that produce more carbon emissions to move their diesel and other products as Western restrictions on Russian cargoes have reshuffled global energy shipping patterns. The ban comes on top of a halt late last year on Russian crude sales into the bloc as well as Western price caps. Also in March, Russian clean products shipped to Togo reached 973 million MT-NM, up from zero in November. Conversely, Russian exports to the Netherlands dropped to 238,200 tonnes in February from 1.15 million tonnes in September. Those longer distances are being done at higher costs for Russian products than for typical shipments from Europe.
Raymond James upgrades FedEx to outperform from market perform Raymond James said and "undeniable" positive change is underway at the shipping giant. "We are initiating coverage of XPO, one of the largest less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers, in North America, with an Outperform rating and a $44 target price." "We are initiating coverage of Skyworks Solutions, with a Buy rating and $150 target price. Raymond James upgrades Wells Fargo to strong buy from outperform Raymond James said the banking giant is well positioned in the current environment. Raymond James initiates Pinterest as outperform Raymond James said it sees "steady user growth" for Pinterest.
Here are Wednesday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Bank of America reiterates Disney as buy Bank of America said Disney remains "best-in-class." Piper Sandler reiterates Apple as overweight Piper said its survey checks show Apple is still a top pick for teens. Bank of America upgrades Livent to buy from neutral Bank of America said the lithium company's "value proposition" has increased. " Wedbush upgrades Dutch Bros to outperform from neutral Wedbush upgraded the coffee chain and said it sees more upside. Bank of America reiterates Apple as buy Bank of America raised its price target on Apple to $168 per share from $158 and said it sees iPhone trends stabilizing.
Meta Platforms (META) price target raised to $250 from $225 at Jeffries. Federal Realty (FRT) price target lowered to $111 from $118 at Piper Sandler. Bank of America raises price target for Apple to $168 from $158, keeps a neutral rating on shares. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Reuters GraphicsIn a quarterly update to shareholders published on March 13, Apollo outlined how Athene's funding model is different than a bank's. In the wake of the banking crisis, however, Apollo has been fielding questions from analysts and investors about Athene's funding model. Following a meeting with Apollo executives, Hone wrote in a note last week that he does not anticipate a spike in withdrawals from Athene's annuity holders and that Athene's funding base was stable. Apollo said in its March 13 presentation to investors that it had seen inflows of $8.8 billion to Athene from the start of the year to March 10. Questions from investors and analysts to Apollo have focused on this subset of annuity policies that have a potentially higher flight risk.
Regulators shuttered Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, the second and third largest closures in the nation's history. Authorities then took unprecedented action to backstop the collapsed companies' deposits and introduced new measures to shore up confidence. The ups and downs may have helped banks' trading desks as choppy markets fueled client activity. While billions of dollars of those deposits landed at the biggest banks, some analysts said the influx was unlikely to provide a major boost to their earnings. Investors are becoming increasingly focused on the rising cost of funding for banks, which could weigh on earnings, analysts at Piper Sandler wrote in a note last week.
Here are Monday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Susquehanna upgrades Roku to positive from neutral Susquehanna said it sees an attractive risk/reward for the stock. Citi upgrades KeyCorp and M & T Bank to buy from neutral Citi upgraded several regional banks on Monday and said the risk/reward looks compelling. Morgan Stanley reiterates Amazon as overweight Morgan Stanley said it sees 50% upside for shares of the e-commerce giant. Morgan Stanley reiterates Walmart as overweight Morgan Stanley said it sees an attractive risk/reward heading into the company's investment community meeting on April 4. Morgan Stanley moves First Republic to no rating Morgan Stanley removed its estimates and ratings on the stock due to too much uncertainty.
Here are Friday's biggest calls on Wall Street: UBS reiterates Tesla as buy UBS said it's recent survey checks show Tesla is "best positioned" to win the EV race. Wells Fargo reiterates Microsoft as a top AI pick Wells said Microsoft is one of the biggest beneficiaries of AI. Jefferies downgrades UBS to hold from buy Jefferies said it sees too much uncertainty after the banking giant's acquisition of Credit Suisse. Jefferies upgrades Regeneron to buy from hold Jefferies said it's bullish on several of the pharmaceutical company's products. Citi reiterates Nvidia as buy Citi said Nvidia is a top beneficiary of AI.
It's likely that the pace of imports has been maintained in March, with Refinitiv estimating arrivals of around 103 million tonnes, while Kpler forecasts 102.7 million. The question becomes what the risks are to the so far bullish start to 2023 for iron ore prices and volumes. The chief one is that China's economic recovery focuses more on boosting consumer spending than it does on rebuilding the residential property sector. CHINA IRON ORE IMPORTS VS SPOT PRICESTEEL DECLINE? The risk is that iron ore demand is being front-loaded into the first half of the year, and potentially will decline in the second, with the concomitant risk prices will also come under pressure.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCollapse of U.S. banks: There's a catharsis happening in bank deposits, says research firmStephen Biggar of Argus Research discusses the collapse of banks like Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and says "it seems like the contagion … is now a bit contained."
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo top bank analysts say the backstopping that's going on at the federal level will help stem the tide of recent losses in the sectorStephen Biggar of Argus Research and Stephen Scouten of Piper Sandler discuss the health of the bank sector -- large-cap, regional and mid-size lenders -- amid the ongoing turmoil in the wake of the collapse of SVB and Signature Bank, pressure on First Republic and UBS' takeover of Credit Suisse.
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