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Big Tech earnings This week is less about reading between the lines/through results, and contextualizing management comments, but rather it's about the market itself. AI - AI - AI! The options market is implying an earnings related move of 4.7%. Our options market sentiment score for GOOG/GOOGL is 80th percentile - which one may think of like a score/grade, so a B- in terms of options sentiment. Call open interest is 15% higher than put open interest, our options market sentiment score is 83% so B/B- territory.
Persons: ChatGPT, Bing, it's, AMZN, Mark Zuckerberg's, Zuckerberg, one's Organizations: Cambridge, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, BlackRock, Goldman, Equity, Big Tech, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Inc, Investors, YouTube, Amazon, Google, Gaming, Activision, Logistics, Federal Express, CNBC, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Visa, Mastercard, Merck, Co Locations: financials, Wells Fargo
The S&P 500 is down nearly 8% from its July highs as a selloff in Treasuries has pushed yields near 16-year highs, sapping investor enthusiasm for equities. While the firm is underweight broad equities for the next 6 to 12 months, it remains bullish on mega-cap technology companies, as well as healthcare and Japanese stocks, it noted. Overall, stock valuations look elevated, especially given the higher yields available in the bond market, the firm noted. The bearish call from BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, comes as investors closely watch earnings for signs that the U.S. economy remains resilient in the face of rising interest rates. Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post earnings growth of 1.3% in the third quarter compared with the same time last year, according to LSEG IBES.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, LSEG, David Randall, Hugh Lawson Organizations: BlackRock, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, BlackRock Investment, Companies, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Apple, Nvidia, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, BlackRock, Treasuries
Take Five: Another curve ball for markets
  + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The European Central Bank looks set to sit tight after a string of interest rate hikes, while there's a slew of U.S. earnings and Argentina's presidential election. ECB chief economist Philip Lane says the central bank was still "quite some distance" from easing monetary policy. Canada's central bank, meeting on Wednesday, is tipped to leave rates steady as inflation eases. 2 economy, property turmoil threatens China's 5% growth target - even after a consensus-smashing 4.9% quarterly expansion. Milei, surprise victor in the August primary election, has pledged to dollarise the economy and get rid of the central bank.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Amanda Cooper, Naomi Rovnick, Kevin Buckland, Lewis Krauskopf, Rodrigo Campos, Philip Lane, hasn't, Javier Milei, Sergio Massa, Patricia Bullrich, Vineet Sachdev, Sumanta Sen, Dhara Ranasinghe, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, European Central Bank, Hamas, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, General Motors, Merck, United Parcel Service, Investors, International Monetary, Massa, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, London, Tokyo, New York, Israel, Palestinian, Russia, Ukraine, China, Beijing, ARGENTINA, Argentina, Pasir Kongkunakornkul
Piper Sandler is bullish on the strength of the S & P 500 , calling for the broad-market index to end the year at 4,825 — a nearly 12% rally from Wednesday's close — even as high Treasury yields have dented stocks. Markets are facing a broad array of hurdles, including ongoing economic headwinds, inflation worries and increased turmoil as tensions build in the Middle East. Underlying signs of improvement Johnson noted increased strength from earnings this week and a better-than-expected retail sales report . In particular, stocks of financial companies and names in the consumer discretionary space have perked up, he said. The recent runup in Treasury yields has slowed the advance of equities, Johnson noted.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Craig Johnson, Johnson, Goldman Sachs, Russell, advancers, decliners, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Treasury, Bank of America, New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq Locations: Wednesday's
Valuations have swelled, with the Magnificent Seven trading at an average forward price-to-earnings ratio of 33.5, compared with the S&P 500's P/E of 18.3. “Everybody knows these guys are going to make money," said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII), referring to the Magnificent Seven. "The reallocation of funds going forward is going to suggest lower returns and more difficulty for the Magnificent Seven to maintain their leadership." The seven companies' combined market capitalization topped 30% of the S&P 500's overall market value earlier this month, according to LSEG Datastream. Some investors are also drawing distinctions among the seven stocks.
Persons: Aly, Tesla, Sameer Samana, Tajinder Dhillon, Tim Pagliara, CapWealth, Pagliara, Elon Musk, LSEG Datastream, Torsten Slok, Patrick Kaser, Kaser, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Apple, REUTERS, Microsoft, Nvidia, U.S, Tesla, Wells, Investment Institute, Google, Facebook, Federal, Treasury, , Global, Apollo Global Management, Brandywine Global, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Apple
AdvertisementAdvertisementThis as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Jon Kotwicki, a 32-year-old flight instructor in Alaska, who turned an old cargo plane into an Airbnb. The exterior of Kotwicki's airplane conversion. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe living space in Kotwicki's airplane conversion. Either way, when people pull up to the Airplane house for the first time, I love seeing their reactions. The living space in Kotwicki's airplane conversion.
Persons: Jon Kotwicki, Jon, , Douglas, There's, They're, Alyshia Organizations: Service, Douglas DC, Airbnb, Alyshia Hull Locations: Alaska, Florida, Fairhaven , Alaska, Wasilla , Alaska, ahull@insider.com
Attractive returns and the breadth of opportunities are among the many reasons the U.S. has long reigned supreme for investors. In terms of countries, Japan looks to offer the best combination of earnings growth, cheap valuations and policy support," Tom Stevenson, investment director at Fidelity International, told CNBC Pro. "Japanese shares are trading on around 15 times this year's expected earnings and 14 times earnings two years out," he said. "There has been some increase in this multiple during the recent rally in Japanese shares, but they remain relatively cheap compared to the U.S. which trades on around 20 times earnings." Among his choices is the Baillie Gifford Japanese Fund, which he describes as a "growth-focused fund run by an experienced manager."
Persons: Tom Stevenson, Daniel Hurley, Rowe Price, Stevenson, TRP's Hurley, Fidelity's Stevenson, Hurley, Baillie Gifford Organizations: Fidelity International, CNBC, CNBC Pro, Japan, Tokyo Exchange Group, Stock, Japan's, Bank of Japan, Sony, Astella Pharmaceuticals, Fund, Schroder Japan Trust, SoftBank, SBI Holdings, Hitachi, Nippon Gas, Toyota, Japan IMI Locations: Japan, U.S
Employees of Indian software company Infosys walk past Infosys logos at their campus in the Electronic City area in Bangalore September 4, 2012. REUTERS/Vivek Prakash/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBENGALURU, Oct 5 (Reuters) - J.P.Morgan analysts expect investors to parse upcoming second-quarter results and commentary from Indian IT companies for signs of recovery in deal signings in fiscal 2025 following a "washout" year. The focus for this quarter's earnings reports will be on deal signings as well as the split of new deals versus renewals to assess fiscal 2025 growth, the analysts said. J.P.Morgan expects high single-digit earnings growth, in percentage terms, for large-cap IT companies in fiscal 2025, while market expectations are for double-digit growth. Nonetheless, J.P.Morgan upgraded Infosys (INFY.NS) to "neutral" from "underweight" saying lower expectations were baked in and its large deal wins give visibility into fiscal 2025.
Persons: Vivek Prakash, Ankur Rudra, Bhavik Mehta, Rudra, Mehta, Navamya Ganesh, Savio D'Souza, Janane Organizations: Indian, Infosys, REUTERS, Rights, TCS, Wipro, J.P.Morgan, Thomson Locations: Electronic, Bangalore, Indian, Bengaluru
A major benchmark for U.S. stocks — the Russell 2000 index — turned negative for the year on Monday, an indicator of broader weakness occurring in the economy that's being masked by a few large cap tech equities. Lending is also often more difficult for small cap companies versus larger cap names, which are can negotiate lower lending rates. The Russell 2000 has higher sector weight in financials, which makes it more leveraged toward interest rate conditions, said Bespoke Investment Group co-founder Paul Hickey. "So if you put all those factors together, I wouldn't say that the Russell 2000 is a canary in the coal mine. The strategist believes that easing pressure on interest rates should result help the small cap index bounce back from its oversold period.
Persons: Russell, , Jeff Corey, Corey, Paul Hickey, it's, Hickey Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Claro Advisors, Investment Group Locations: New York City, U.S, financials
Warren Buffett 's Berkshire Hathaway has been on fire this year with shares roaring back to a record on strong earnings, and this outperformance caused one analyst to urge caution about a slowdown in the stock. James Shanahan at Edward Jones downgraded Berkshire shares to a hold rating from buy Thursday evening and removed B shares from the firm's U.S. stock focus list. "BRK shares have significantly outperformed financial services peers over the past six months, supported by a relatively strong earnings outlook," Shanahan said in a note. BRK.A YTD mountain Berkshire Hathaway Berkshire's operating earnings jumped 6.6% year over year in the second quarter, while it also posted big gains from its stock portfolio and Treasury holdings. Meanwhile, trading activity in Class A shares is relatively muted given its high price tag.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, James Shanahan, Edward Jones, Shanahan, , Berkshire doesn't Organizations: Berkshire, Berkshire Hathaway Locations: U.S, Omaha, Berkshire
As tech startups test the IPO market again, they are pushing up their valuations. In upping IPO ranges, tech stocks are still coming out humbled by the post-2021 IPO market slump. Instacart and Klaviyo are both expected to make their debuts on the public market as soon as this week. Arm's jump of nearly 25% during its first trading day Thursday marked the end of a quiet two years for tech IPOs. "This has been the slowest IPO market in over a decade and we seem to be finally coming out of that."
Persons: Matt Kennedy, Ray Wang, Wang Organizations: Renaissance Capital, Constellation Research Locations: Silicon
The S&P 500 is priced for perfection and could plunge 25% if problems crop up, Mike Wilson says. Morgan Stanley's stock chief says the outlook for company earnings and the economy is pretty grim. The benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite have rallied 17% and 33% respectively this year. He suggested a shock to the system of that kind could send the S&P 500 plummeting from nearly 4,500 points today to the low 3,000s — a drop of more than 25%. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn short, Wilson sees very limited upside and material downside to investing in the S&P 500 today.
Persons: Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's, Wilson, Rosenberg, Morgan, China's, Sharp, aren't Organizations: Big Tech, Service, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Wall, Bank of, Nvidia, Microsoft Locations: Wall, Silicon, Bank of Japan
Many growth funds have performed on pace with the S & P 500 this year, driven by mega-cap names such as Nvidia , Alphabet and Tesla . The Needham Aggressive Growth Fund , however, has outperformed. Aggressive growth funds are focused on investing in growth stocks, with high potential future to grow — but also higher risk. Picking companies Portfolio manager Barr, who has managed the fund since 2010, told CNBC Pro that "there is a rich universe of investment opportunities beneath the big tech companies like Nvidia." "There are small-cap companies with rapid growth, and also with the steady growth that Needham prefers."
Persons: It's, John Barr —, Barr, Needham Organizations: Nvidia, Big Tech, Morningstar, CNBC, Apple, Needham Funds Locations: industrials, Barr, United States
Club holding Apple (AAPL) isn't in danger of losing its footing, despite a recent market sell-off spurred by reports China is cracking down on iPhone usage. Still, Apple remains an "own-it don't-trade it" stock in the Club portfolio, as its standing as an aspirational brand in China shouldn't be affected by the government's apparent decision. Apple CEO Tim Cook "isn't just riding around saying, 'Boy, I sure hope China doesn't cut us off.' But if China were to confirm the new rules targeting iPhones, Apple is well-positioned to weather any near-term headwinds. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Tim Cook, Cramer, , Jim, Apple, Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Truist, DuPont, Jim Cramer's Organizations: Apple, Street, Bloomberg, Club, Broadcom, DuPont de Nemours, Huawei, DuPont Broadcom, CNBC, Getty Locations: China, Beijing, India, AVGO, Greater China, Wuhan
US bankruptcies soared 54% year-over-year in August. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. In effect, they were saying that companies feel pain in times of policy tightening, especially those with weaker balance sheets. In any case, easy money measures have "kept so many zombie companies on life support," in Societe Generale's view. "[T]he recent sharp rise in rates really could cause a shocking rise in bankruptcies, beyond all fears."
Persons: Albert Edwards, Edwards, Ander Perez, Orive, Yannick Timmer, loosens Organizations: Societe Generale, Service, Reserve, Federal Reserve, Generale Locations: Wall, Silicon
While big firms have survived high rates, Edwards said a recession would eventually hurt them too. Here are the effective interest rates for a few cohorts of the S&P 1500. The Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows 49% of banks are tightening lending standards for small companies. They weren't able to lock into long-term loans at almost zero interest rates and pile it high in the money markets at variable rates," Edwards said. "In our view, the current savings rate is unsustainably low, and the main downside risk to growth is that the savings rate will suddenly move higher."
Persons: Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Edwards, haven't, Louis, that's, we'll, Brian Rose, Rose, Piper Sandler, it's Organizations: Societe Generale's, Societe Generale, American Bankruptcy Institute, Generale, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Institute, Supply Management's, UBS Americas, UBS Companies
The logo of technology company Nvidia is seen at its headquarters in Santa Clara, California February 11, 2015. Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 172 points, or 1.13% and S&P 500 e-minis were up 21.75 points, or 0.49% at 5:28 a.m. "It is clear...that AI demand is still outstripping supply," Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note. "Within the tech sector, we think software and internet stocks are best positioned to ride the next wave of the technology cycle and the broadening of AI demand." Splunk Inc (SPLK.O) gained 13.9% after the data analytics software maker forecast third-quarter revenue above market estimates on expectations of AI-related spending.
Persons: Robert Galbraith, Mark Haefele, Jerome Powell, Amruta Khandekar, Shreyashi Sanyal, Savio D'Souza, Shinjini Organizations: Nvidia, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, UBS Global Wealth Management, Microsoft, Palantir Technologies, Micro Devices, Marvell Technology, Semiconductor, Europe's ASM, BE Semiconductor, ASML, Investors, Federal Reserve, U.S, Treasury, Boeing, Splunk Inc, Thomson Locations: Santa Clara , California, United States, Jackson, U.S, Bengaluru
A flurry of buyback activity should give the equity market a boost in the coming weeks, and some stocks stand to benefit more than others, according to Goldman Sachs. August has seen strong repurchase volume from large-cap companies with executions standing at about 40% above the average 2023 level, Goldman said. Goldman's buyback basket of 50 sector-neutral companies with above-average repurchase activity has historically performed particularly well following the second-quarter earnings season, Goldman said. The stocks in Goldman's basket included Tapestry , Lockheed Martin, HP , Dollar General , Applied Materials and Bath & Body Works . Still, higher interest rates could cause a slowdown in buybacks this year as many companies tend to issue debt to repurchase stocks.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Kostin, Lockheed Martin Organizations: HP, Dollar, Applied Materials, Body
Apple is now the Big Tech stock owned least by institutional investors and is the most underowned it has been since 2008, according to Morgan Stanley. Over the past four years, the most underowned megacap stock in institutional portfolios was Microsoft , according to analyst Erik Woodring. Investors have been concerned Apple stock was overpriced after its huge rally earlier this year. In fact, of the large-cap companies it evaluates, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia , Amazon and Google parent Alphabet are the most underowned stocks in actively managed portfolios, according to Morgan Stanley. "Amongst the 5 mega-cap tech stocks, META is the only name where institutional ownership is greater than its S & P 500 weighting."
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Erik Woodring, Apple's, Woodring, Meta, it's, Michael Bloom Organizations: Apple, Big Tech, Microsoft, Investors, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta Locations: MSFT, F4Q23
Michael Burry's bet against the S&P 500 could prove to be painful, Kevin O'Leary warned. Burry made around $100 million betting on the 2008 crisis, but that was a different game, O'Leary says. The S&P 500 has 500 mega-cap companies in it in 11 sectors of the economy, real estate only being one of them. The same goes for Burry's bet against the Nasdaq 100, which is largely concentrated in tech, but has leading stocks in different areas of the sector. At the crux of the market's turmoil, the S&P 500 could plummet 57% to 1,900 and the Nasdaq could plunge 56% to 6,000, Burry predicted last year.
Persons: Michael Burry's, Kevin O'Leary, Burry, O'Leary, " O'Leary, , Burry aren't Organizations: Service, Fox News, Nasdaq, Scion Asset Management Locations: Wall, Silicon
Technology investor Jonathan Curtis is bullish, though he's worried about AI stocks in late 2023. "But we're in an experimentation phase for AI — we're not in the revenue phase for AI." Although revenue and earnings for many companies connected to AI aren't substantial, the demand for workers with AI know-how certainly is, Curtis said. Still, while he keeps his focus on the long term, he acknowledged that valuations for AI stocks are ambitious, if not a bit crazy. And while the portfolio management director thinks investors should be wary of AI stocks' volatility in the near term, he made clear that AI is absolutely worth investing in for the long term.
Persons: Jonathan Curtis, he's, Curtis, Jonathan Curtis —, there's, We've, — we're, they'll, Curtis spotlighted Organizations: Technology, Federal, Franklin Equity Group
Small and mid-cap stocks are providing cash-flow opportunities, according to Bank of America. If you're looking for cash in the form of buybacks and dividends, small and mid-cap stocks may be a good bet, according to a Bank of America note from August 14. Earlier this year, the bank warned investors to remain discerning when it comes to buying in small-cap stocks. When an economy is on the mend, small-cap value stocks tend to rally ahead, leading the recovery by outperforming their larger counterparts over multiple years, according to David Wagner, portfolio manager for the SmallCap Value Fund at T. Rowe Price (PRSVX). Earlier in August, Bank of America held a virtual conference with executives from 20 small and mid-cap companies.
Persons: David Wagner, Rowe Price, Jill Carey Hall Organizations: Bank of America, Bank, America
REUTERS/Adrees LatifNEW YORK, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Michael Burry, the money manager made famous in the book and film "The Big Short," held bearish options against the broad S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Index at the end of the second quarter, according to securities fillings released on Monday. Put options convey the right to sell shares at a fixed price in the future and are typically bought to express a bearish or defensive view. Michael Lewis' nonfiction book "The Big Short" was released in 2010 and the movie version came out in 2015. The S&P 500 (.SPX) is up roughly 17% for the year to date while the Nasdaq 100 (.IXIC) is up nearly 39% over the same period. Burry, who frequently turns over his portfolio, drew wide attention last August when he dumped all of his long positions and bought a stake in prison company Geo Group Inc (GEO.N).
Persons: Adrees Latif, Michael Burry, Michael Lewis, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Nasdaq, REUTERS, YORK, Scion Asset Management, U.S, Nvidia, HK, Alibaba Group Holdings, Western Alliance Bancorp, First Republic Bank, RealReal Inc, Warner Bros ., Warner Brothers, Scion, Management, Geo Group Inc, Thomson Locations: Square, Midtown New York, New York
Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. The S&P 500 (.SPX) has edged higher since earnings season began in July, with the benchmark index up 16% in 2023. Third-quarter S&P 500 earnings are seen rising 1.3% on a year-over-year basis, according to Refinitiv, before a 9.7% fourth-quarter earnings rise and a 11.9% full-year increase in 2024. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, the S&P 500 has become more richly valued. Q2 RESULTSWith 91% of S&P 500 companies having reported second-quarter results, 78.7% posted earnings above analysts' expectations, according to Refinitiv IBES.
Persons: Mike Segar, Eric Freedman, Refinitiv, Anthony Saglimbene, Julian Emanuel, Evercore, Emanuel, John Lynch, Ned Davis, Comerica's Lynch, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Stock, U.S, Bank Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Credit Suisse, Ameriprise Financial, Comerica Wealth Management, Apple, Walmart, Ned Davis Research, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S
"We're going to see our first rise in headline inflation after 12 consecutive months of falling prices," said Ben Laidler, global markets strategist at eToro. The pan-European benchmark STOXX 600 (.STOXX) rose 0.5%, supported by gains in the luxury sector (.STXLUXP) after China lifted a ban on group tours in the United States and other key markets. In currency markets, the dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, eased 0.4%. "We've got $1 trillion coming down the pipe over the next three months," eToro's Laidler said. "Any sign that markets are absorbing that well, which we got the first signs of yesterday, will be very well taken."
Persons: Ben Laidler, Laidler, Germany's DAX, Rodrigo Catril, We've, eToro's Laidler, Bond, Brent, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Edwina Gibbs, Sam Holmes, Susan Fenton, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, Reuters, CAC, FTSE, Wall, National Australia Bank, U.S, Treasury, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Silicon, China, United States, Europe's, Europe, CHINA, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Beijing, Saudi Arabia, Russia
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