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☆ Dollar shrugs off suspected Japan intervention; pound eyes UK politics
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. Yen overnight volatility surged to its highest since Sept. 21, the day before the BOJ stepped in to prop up the currency for the first time since 1998. Sterling see-sawed on news former prime minister Boris Johnson had dropped out of the Tory leadership contest, and was last up 0.1% at $1.1319, off an overnight high above $1.14. Johnson said he had withdrawn from Monday's contest to replace Liz Truss, who was forced to resign as prime minister after launching a fiscal plan that unleashed turmoil in UK markets. Former Chancellor Rishi Sunak has emerged as the clear frontrunner to become Britain's next prime minister.

☆ Unfazed by yen's slump, BOJ seen keeping ultra-low rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Authorities have struggled to tame the yen's relentless declines as investors focus on the BOJ's ultra-low interest rates that make it an outlier among a global wave of central banks tightening policy to combat soaring inflation. Some market participants speculate the BOJ could tweak its dovish policy guidance amid growing public discontent over the weak-yen effect of its ultra-loose monetary policy. "With the Fed determined to combat inflation, a minor policy tweak by the BOJ will do little to narrow the gap between U.S. and Japanese monetary policy," said Iwashita. In July, the BOJ forecast core consumer inflation to hit 2.3% in fiscal year 2022 before slowing to 1.4% the following year. It projects the economy to expand 2.4% in the current fiscal year and rise 2% in fiscal 2023.

Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. REUTERS/Florence LoSINGAPORE, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Suspected Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervention gave only brief respite to the Japanese yen as the dollar stayed strong on Monday, while sterling wavered as former finance minister Rishi Sunak emerged as frontrunner to become Britain's prime minister. That triggered a rally of more than 7 yen for the Japanese currency to 144.50 per dollar. Damien Boey, chief macro strategist at Sydney-based investment firm Barrenjoey, said the Japanese yen was still not close to fair value. Sterling also see-sawed on news former prime minister Boris Johnson had dropped out of running for British prime minister and was last up 0.2% at $1.1320, trimming earlier agains.

☆ BOJ steps up, Boris bows out, Xi stays put
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Tingshu WangA look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. BOJ boss Kuroda has so far shown no sign of reversing course ahead of retirement next year and markets might have to wait for a new face to see the end of YCC. A, sort of, new face is a step closer to being British PM after Boris Johnson bowed out of the leadership race, leaving former FinMin Rishi Sunak in pole position. Beijing marked the rubber-stamping of Xi for a third term as leader by dumping a week of delayed data on markets, and a mixed bunch it was. Topping forecasts were GDP and industrial output, but retail sales disappointed and house prices kept falling in a warning sign for the stretched property sector.

Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 22, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File PhotoSummary Yen volatile as Tokyo suspected of intervention for 2nd dayYen plunged to 32-year low vs dollar near 152 yen FridayFX officials remains tight lipped on interventionTOKYO, Oct 24 (Reuters) - The Japanese yen was whipsawed in early Monday trading on suspected intervention by Tokyo for the second straight day, but the efforts to slow the currency's relentless slide was blunted by a dollar riding a wave of yield-driven and safe-haven demand. Japanese authorities again declined to confirm whether they had intervened, but the price action strongly suggested they had. read moreEarly on Monday, the Japanese currency made a thumping 4 yen jump to 145.28 per dollar, indicating currency authorities had stepped in for a second successive day, after a similar move by Tokyo on Friday. If the United States shows signs of its rate hikes peaking out and even cutting interest rates, the yen would stop weakening even without intervention."

☆ U.S., European shares rise on hopes Fed will slow rate hike pace
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Chris Prentice | Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

WASHINGTON/LONDON (Reuters) -U.S. and European shares rose on Monday as signs of a cooling U.S. economy raised hopes that the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of rate hikes. “Investors are getting more confident that inflation is going to come down and that the Fed might be quick to pause. European shares rose on Monday, driven by hopes that the Federal Reserve could slow its pace of interest rate hikes, while investors braced for a busy week of earnings and key interest rate decision from the European Central Bank. Markets are still priced for a rate rise of 75 basis points next month, but have scaled back bets on a matching move in December. Chinese blue chips slid almost 3%, while Hong Kong shares fell 6.4%, their biggest one-day drop since the financial crisis.

☆ Dollar shakes off suspected Japan intervention; stocks brace for earnings
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON (Reuters) -The dollar weathered another suspected blast of Japanese intervention to rise against the yen on Monday, while European markets got a lift from hopes that U.S. interest rates could rise more slowly than previously thought. Japan likely spent a record 5.4 trillion-5.5 trillion yen ($36.16 billion-$36.83 billion) in its yen-buying intervention last Friday, according to estimates by Tokyo money market brokerage firms. Sterling, meanwhile, see-sawed in volatile trade on news Boris Johnson had dropped out of the running for British prime minister. Chinese blue chips slid almost 3%, while Hong Kong shares fell 6.4%, their biggest one-day drop since the financial crisis. Sentiment will also be tested by some major earnings with Apple, Microsoft, Google-parent Alphabet and Amazon all reporting.

☆ Dollar shrugs off suspected yen intervention, Europe clings to Fed hopes
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Wayne Cole | Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON/SYDNEY (Reuters) - The dollar weathered another suspected blast of Japanese intervention to rise against the yen on Monday, while European markets got a lift from hopes that U.S. interest rates could rise more slowly than previously thought. Japanese authorities again declined to confirm whether they had intervened, but the price action suggested they had. Sterling, meanwhile, see-sawed in volatile trade on news Boris Johnson had dropped out of the running for British prime minister. The peak for rates has also edged down to around 4.87%, from above 5% early last week. “Although we do not expect any ‘dovish’ policy signal, we maintain a bias towards a lower rate path than currently priced by markets,” said analysts at NatWest Markets in a note.

Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. REUTERS/Florence LoSINGAPORE, Oct 24 (Reuters) - The Japanese yen made a thumping 4 yen jump for a second straight session on Monday on suspected early intervention by the Bank of Japan, but struggled to hold its gains against a robust U.S. dollar. "It's blindingly obvious that the BOJ is intervening," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank in Sydney. "While sub-optimal and unsustainable in the medium term, we think this policy mix could be in place for some time." The Australian dollar was down 0.4% versus the greenback at $0.6370, while the kiwi was up 0.16% on its U.S. peer at $0.576.

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterAfter the dollar rose to 151.94 yen , its highest since 1990, the intervention drove the greenback down more than 7 yen to a low of 144.50 yen. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) intervened in several stages from around 9:35 p.m. (1235 GMT), one source said. Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, also declined to say whether the MOF had intervened. Many market players doubt whether Tokyo can reverse the yen's downtrend with solo intervention, even with Japan's $1.33 trillion in foreign reserves. Japan bought a record 3.6 trillion yen ($24 billion) in the September action, Tokyo money market brokerage firms estimated.

☆ Morning Bid: BOJ steps up, Boris bows out, Xi stays put
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A banknote of Japanese yen is seen in this illustration picture taken June 15, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File PhotoA look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. A, sort of, new face is a step closer to being British PM after Boris Johnson bowed out of the leadership race, leaving former FinMin Rishi Sunak in pole position. Beijing marked the rubber-stamping of Xi for a third term as leader by dumping a week of delayed data on markets, and a mixed bunch it was. Topping forecasts were GDP and industrial output, but retail sales disappointed and house prices kept falling in a warning sign for the stretched property sector.

☆ BOJ, BoJo, Beijing and bond bounce
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A surge in Japan's ailing yen from 32-year lows later on Friday, amid reports of out-of-hours Bank of Japan intervention in New York, saw a peak-to-trough drop in dollar/yen of almost 4%. There were wild swings again on Monday amid suspicion of further BoJ sales, even though officials refused to confirm the action. A weekend of political twists from Beijing to London only added to edgy market on Monday. China leadership China's Xi Jinping secured a precedent-breaking third leadership term on Sunday and introduced a top governing body stacked with loyalists. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) has now underperformed MSCI's broadest global stock index by almost 50% over two years.

chartchartA short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. In aggregate, funds' short position of almost 125,000 contracts is the largest since November last year. But it failed to materially reduce the net speculative wager because funds also substantially reduced their long yen position. Ultimately, funds trimmed their net short yen position by only a few thousand contracts following the Sept. 22 intervention. The latest CFTC data shows they evidently felt confident enough to load up on short yen positions again.

☆ Japan's stimulus plan must exceed $100 bln, says ruling party executive
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, Oct 23 (Reuters) - Japan's promised economic stimulus must be big enough to exceed the economy's output gap of about 15 trillion yen ($100 billion), a senior ruling party official said on Sunday. "The gap in Japan's gross domestic product (GDP) is now around 15 trillion yen. It's not enough to just fill this gap," said Yoshitaka Shindo, executive acting chairperson of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) policy research council. The remarks add to growing calls among ruling party officials for hefty spending to ease the strain from rising inflation on households. On monetary policy, Shindo said while the Bank of Japan must eventually exit ultra-easy policy, doing so now would be premature as Japan's economy and wage growth remain weak.

After the dollar rose to 151.94 yen , its highest since 1990, the intervention drove the Japanese currency down more than 7 yen to a low of 144.50 yen. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe Ministry of Finance (MOF) intervened in several stages from around 9:35 p.m. (1235 GMT), one source said. Speaking to reporters shortly after the yen spiked, Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, declined to comment on whether the MOF had intervened, according to Jiji news agency. Many market players doubt whether Tokyo can reverse the yen's downtrend with solo intervention, even with Japan's $1.33 trillion in foreign reserves. Japan bought a record 3.6 trillion yen ($24 billion) in the September action, Tokyo money market brokerage firms estimated.

"We are confronting speculators strictly," Suzuki told a regular news conference, when asked whether the Japanese yen was under attack by speculators. Suzuki was speaking as the dollar strengthened to 150.29 yen overnight, the highest since August 1990, after breaking the key psychological level of 150 on Thursday. "It's not that Japan's finances are undergoing a major shift in phase leading to the current yen weakening," Suzuki said, when asked if there were lessons for Japan from Britain's predicament that led to the resignation of Prime Minister Liz Truss. On the course of future monetary policy, Suzuki said it is up to the BOJ to decide. "We'll strive to maintain fiscal discipline with a major target of achieving primary budget surplus in fiscal 2025."

☆ Explainer: Yen is past key 150 threshold. What's next?
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

An employee of the foreign exchange trading company Gaitame.com works in front of monitors showing the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar at its dealing room in Tokyo, Japan, October 21, 2022. Below are details on how Japanese policymakers could respond:WHAT HAPPENED SINCE JAPAN'S LAST YEN-BUYING INTERVENTION? Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterSince then, policymakers have repeatedly threatened to act against volatile yen moves. Policymakers have repeatedly said they are looking at the speed of yen moves, not its level, in deciding whether to intervene. That means Tokyo will avoid intervening in a way that appears as if it is defending a certain yen level.

☆ BOJ's Kuroda says must watch FX impact on economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

TOKYO, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Friday the central bank must closely watch how financial and currency market moves could affect the country's economy and prices. "Japan's economy is likely to recover as the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and supply constraints ease," Kuroda said in a speech to an annual meeting of credit unions. "Uncertainty over Japan's economic outlook is extremely high," he added, pointing to risks such as the fallout from the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and overseas economic developments. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Sakura Murakami and Leika Kihara; Editing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ BOJ, battling rising yields, will conduct emergency bond buying for 2nd day
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Junko Fujita | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

In its latest move to curb elevated yields, the BOJ said it would conduct an emergency operations, offering to buy 100 billion yen ($665.56 million) of bonds with maturities between 10 and 25 years. The BOJ conducted a similar operation on Thursday only to see yields on some notes rising to multi-year highs. "But upward pressure on the 10-year bond yields is getting stronger, because not just super-long yields, but yields on shorter ended notes are rising." Yields on the benchmark 10-year yields are at 0.25% at the top of the ceiling of BOJ's policy band, having breached that level for two straight sessions this week. Additionally, the bank would offer to buy 650 billion yen of 5- to 10-year bonds, up from planned 550 billion yen.

☆ BOJ: Japan's banking system stable but rising global rates a risk
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

TOKYO, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Japan's banking system remains stable as a whole but rising overseas interest rates could worsen the creditworthiness of highly leveraged firms, the Bank of Japan said on Friday. "Financial institutions' valuation losses on securities have increased recently. Such losses could increase further depending on future interest rate developments," the central bank said in a semi-annual report on Japan's financial system. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Traders on intervention watch as yen hits 150, pound gains as Truss resigns
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The fragile yen briefly weakened past 150 per dollar for the first time since August 1990. It was last trading at 149.76 yen per dollar. This has sent U.S. yields and the dollar higher, particularly against the yen as the Bank of Japan is committed to keeping interest rates near zero. The pound rallied ahead of the announcement, before paring gains and then again moving higher. The dollar index dipped 0.50% against a basket of major currencies to 112.40, which analysts said was likely due to consolidation.

Kanda, vice finance minister for international affairs, said he will not comment on whether Japan was intervening now or have stepped into the currency market earlier on Thursday. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki also told reporters after the yen's latest slide that he will "take decisive action" against excessive, sharp yen moves. "We cannot tolerate excessive, rapid currency market moves driven by speculative action," Suzuki said. The yen's break of 150 against the dollar took it to its weakest level since August 1990. The BOJ, for its part, ramped up efforts to defend its 0% bond yield cap earlier on Thursday with offers of emergency bond buying.

The break above the key milestone heightens pressure for Tokyo to step into the currency market again to rein in the yen's relentless decline, which is adding to the country's already swelling import bill. "We cannot tolerate excessive, rapid currency market moves driven by speculative action," Suzuki said. The BOJ, for its part, ramped up efforts to defend its 0% bond yield cap earlier on Thursday with offers of emergency bond buying. The Ministry of Finance's dollar-selling, yen-buying intervention last month was the first time authorities had acted in the markets to prop up the yen since 1998. The yen's tumble below 150 against the dollar on Thursday took it to its weakest level since August 1990, keeping investors on high alert to the possibility of another Japanese intervention in the currency market.

The central bank's step underscores the dilemma Tokyo faces in trying to contain unwelcome yen falls, without resorting to interest rate hikes that could derail Japan's fragile recovery. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"Recent rapid and one-sided yen declines are undesirable. "We will continue to take appropriate steps against excess volatility, while watching currency market developments with a strong sense of urgency," he said. The government, which holds jurisdiction over currency policy, spent 2.8 trillion yen ($19 billion) in dollar-selling, yen-buying intervention last month when authorities acted in the markets to prop up the yen for the first time since 1998. The BOJ is widely expected to maintain its massive stimulus programme at its next two-day policy meeting ending Oct. 28.

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