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☆ Morning Bid: Crude deflation?
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With everyone on Wall St seemingly hand wringing about stagflation next year, the price of crude oil has plummeted by up to 10% this week to its lowest since early January - offering some relief in an otherwise murky outlook. Crucially for inflation worriers, year-on-year crude price gains - which were running at 50-100% between February's Ukraine invasion and midyear - have now fallen to just 4% and could soon be a disinflationary force in consumer price baskets. But, contrary to many prior energy market assumptions, the impact of Monday G7's Russian oil price cap at $60pb for seaborne crude is anchoring prices and underscoring massive discounts for Russia oil - already selling for as low as $55pb. The Bank of Canada is the latest on the list on Wednesday and expected to hike rates by another half point, as are the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England next week. European and Asia bourses - even Shanghai and Hong Kong despite the lifting COVID restrictions - were in negative territory too.

The Great Recession left an impression on millennials like me, but I'm still not not worried about the next one. They've been rare and brief in my lifetime, except for the 19-month Great Recession, which turned out to be the most severe economic collapse since the Great Depression. This isn't the Great RecessionThe main reason I'm not terrified of whatever the economy will do next is that recessions aren't always the Great Recession. We're not afraid of the next recession in my house because my partner and I are both self-employed — he's a freelance graphic designer and I run a financial education startup. Because my partner and I are both service-based business owners, our income is diversified across multiple companies and business sectors.

☆ U.S. service sector activity picks up in November - ISM survey
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly picked up in November, with employment rebounding, offering more evidence of underlying momentum in the economy as it braces for an anticipated recession next year. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Manufacturing activity contracted in November for the first time in 2-1/2 years, the ISM reported last week. In November, the ISM's measure of services industry employment increased to 51.5 from 49.1 in October. The survey's measure of services industry supplier deliveries fell to 53.8 from 56.2 in October.

The answer is simple, according to more than a dozen Washington insiders, FTX employees, and crypto industry observers who spoke with Insider. I don't think anyone believed that he was going to fund candidates who were, quote unquote, committed to ending pandemics who were also hostile to the crypto industry." Alex Wong/Getty ImagesRebuffed by the SEC, Bankman-Fried turned his attention to Congress. "It's not that he was welcoming regulation," says the senior figure in the crypto industry who attended meetings with Bankman-Fried. But while Bankman-Fried was busy wooing Washington, FTX was about to become Exhibit A in the case for more effective oversight of the crypto industry.

☆ There are many reasons to be optimistic about the market, even with the China wildcard
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

More interesting is the S & P 500 , which is down 15.5% and only 16% from its old closing high on Jan. 4. Another help for the bulls: stock market valuations are not at crazy levels. Earnings declines are never welcome, but the stock market is a lot more reasonably valued now than the third quarter of 2020. The S & P was trading at crazy multiples: roughly 26 times 2020 earnings and 21 times 2021 earnings (the long-term average is roughly 17). Today, the S & P is trading at a far more reasonable valuation of about 17.4 times 2023 earnings estimates.

ATHENS, Nov 28 (Reuters Breakingviews) - There will be no joy if countries get help for climate damage from a fund promised at COP27, but the planet still fries. Call this a country’s “above average emissions“. When you run the numbers from 1992 to 2019, America is the biggest polluter, responsible for 44% of all the “above average emissions”. DYNAMIC FORMULAIt seems fair to look at above average emissions to date when judging who should pay for a current climate disaster, such as the flooding in Pakistan. If one froze the formula on the basis of above average emissions up to now, countries wouldn’t have an incentive to cut their pollution.

☆ Of course audiobooks count as reading
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-27 | by ( Judi Ketteler | Judi Ketteler Frequently Writes About Self-Awareness. She Is The Author Of | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +6 min

This year, I joined nearly 6.5 million other people and set a reading challenge via Goodreads. I love to read, but these days by evening — the time of day I’ve always allotted for reading — I’m falling asleep. Not only is this argument insufferable, made — and I’m just guessing — by insufferable people, it’s also the worst kind of ableism. Either way, listening and reading both engage audiences in the same act of absorbing a story. This idea that listening to books is cheating still circulates, especially when people share their reading lists and brag about their reading challenges — which is when “counting” takes on an even more literal meaning.

☆ Iran acknowledges sending drones to Russia for first time
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-05 | by ( Associated Press | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

“We gave a limited number of drones to Russia months before the Ukraine war,” Amirabdollahian told reporters after a meeting in Tehran. The U.S. and its Western allies on the Security Council have called on Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to investigate if Russia has used Iranian drones to attack civilians in Ukraine. As he acknowledged the shipment, Amirabdollahian claimed on Saturday that Iran was oblivious to the use of its drones in Ukraine. “If (Ukraine) has any documents in their possession that Russia used Iranian drones in Ukraine, they should provide them to us,” he said. “If it is proven to us that Russia used Iranian drones in the war against Ukraine, we will not be indifferent to this issue.”

☆ Elon Musk Ousts Twitter Board, Named Sole Director
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Dean Seal | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The board that oversaw Twitter Inc. during its tumultuous sale to Elon Musk has been dissolved, with the Tesla Inc. chief now serving as the social-media company’s sole director. Twitter said in a securities filing Monday that the nine members of its former board are no longer directors as of the consummation of the $44 billion merger, which closed last Thursday after six months of hand-wringing over the deal’s fate.

☆ Elon Musk responds 'good point' to tweet saying there was less uproar over Jeff Bezos buying The Washington Post than Musk buying Twitter
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-23 | by ( Sarah Jackson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Elon Musk's deal to buy Twitter has drawn concern about the management of free speech, misinformation, and dangerous content on the platform if it happens. A Twitter user said people weren't worried about Jeff Bezos' purchase of The Washington Post the way are about Musk's Twitter deal. The government is reportedly considering reviewing Musk's deal as it appears to near the finish line. Musk also reportedly told investors he planned to slash 75% of Twitter's 7,500-strong workforce, according to The Washington Post. The US government is reportedly considering national security reviews of Musk's Twitter takeover, Bloomberg reported earlier this week, citing people with knowledge of the matter.

Apply for student-loan forgiveness ASAP. Spencer Platt/GettyHere's what: The student-loan forgiveness application is liveAfter lawsuits, and beta testing, and much hand-wringing, the Biden administration's student-loan forgiveness application is live and available to federal borrowers. All this to say: Student-loan forgiveness is complicated, and there's a possibility it could remain complicated for a while. Biden's student-loan forgiveness plan could lower my monthly payment from $370 to $150. All your questions about applying for student-loan forgiveness answeredStill have questions about forgiveness?

"The Hezbollah leadership scrutinized the understanding line by line before agreeing to it," said one of the sources familiar with the group's thinking. Two Hezbollah lawmakers told Reuters the group was open to the idea of a deal as a pathway to alleviate some of Lebanon’s economic woes. At one point, Hezbollah conveyed its frustration at the slow pace of the talks to Hochstein via Ibrahim, the Western source said. A U.S. official told Reuters Hezbollah had nearly "killed the deal with their provocative rhetoric and actions threatening war". "Once the pipes are in the water, war becomes a long way away," said a source familiar with Hezbollah's thinking.

☆ The Fed only cares about inflation. That's bad news
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

It seems that Powell wants to atone for his mistake of repeatedly calling inflation “transitory” for much of last year. Keep in mind that the Fed’s series of rate hikes are unprecedented in the “modern” era of central banking, i.e. after Alan Greenspan became Fed chair in 1987 and the Fed became far more transparent. Rate hikes raise the costs for companies to pay down their debt, increasing the possibility of corporate bankruptcies and defaults on commercial loans. As long as inflation remains the bigger issue for the economy, the Fed is going to focus more on getting prices under control.

☆ North Korea needs nukes because of its religion
▼ + stars: | 2017-07-08 | by ( Paul French | Foreign Policy | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

But even engagement strategies can't stop the relentless move toward a deliverable North Korea nuclear arsenal. President Bill Clinton essentially attempted this in 1994 when he approved $4 billion in "energy aid" to North Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un poses with participants during the 8th Congress of the Korean Children's Union (KCU) in Pyongyang, North Korea. A vendor waits for customers at the shop inside the international airport in Pyongyang, North Korea May 3, 2016. But if the world accepts a nuclear North Korea (and it accepted a nuclear Pakistan, as North Koreans have reminded me), then the second half of Kim's theory might just give the kind of pressure that can be used.

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