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☆ Demand for macro traders remains white hot. Millennium just lured a star portfolio manager from rival ExodusPoint.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Alex Morrell | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Demand for macro portfolio managers remains white hot after a bounceback year in 2022. Millennium recently hired John Curtice from rival ExodusPoint, while Ben Melkman has been in talks to join another, Insider has learned. Millennium Management recently added another star to its stable, lifting a 32-year-old macro PM out of rival ExodusPoint, according to people familiar with the matter. Macro focused funds including BlueCrest, Brevan Howard, and Rokos produced stellar returns as most of the hedge fund industry — especially stock pickers — faltered. But even in late 2022 firms were scrambling to lift out macro PMs, recruiters working in the strategy told Insider.

☆ Traders wonder if Fed will change its rate outlook to better match market expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

and what the market believes ( The Fed will raise rates a quarter point in February, another quarter point in March, then stop, and will likely lower rates slightly by the end of the year). If inflation, particularly wage inflation, continues to move lower, the market will believe Powell is winning the fight against inflation. "As goes January, so goes the year" The S & P 500 ended up 6.2% in January, the first up January since 2019. "January is a reasonably good predictor of the year based on S & P 500 data back to 1928," Richard Suttmeier at Bank of America chart analyst told clients in a note. S & P 500: avg.

☆ January Barometer looks like it will be positive, giving bulls a psychological boost
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The so-called January Barometer starts 2023 positive with the S & P 500 up 4.6% to start the final trading day of the month. As for the S & P 500 , bulls want to keep the momentum going. To maintain that, the S & P has to stay well above the 4,000 range. Several companies (UPS, Exxon Mobil, Whirlpool) reported revenues that were lower than expectations. 2023 S & P earnings estimates: (year over year) Q1: down 1.7% Q2: down 2.2% Q3: up 3.8% Q4: up 10.1% Source: Refinitiv Want a good example?

☆ If January is the barometer it historically has been, stocks could see a very strong year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

He said this year has even more reasons to be higher, since other market performance indicators are also positive. For instance, stocks were higher in the Santa rally period in the final five trading days of December and the first two of January. "If you add the third level, with the market positive in January, the market was up a shade more than 29% and was up 100% of the time." spThe average annual S&P 500 gain for any year is about 9%, but Stovall said when the prior year is negative there's historically a higher bounce and the rally averages 14%. "If you add the third level, with the market positive in January, the market was up a shade more than 29% and was up 100% of the time."

☆ A 'January Effect' rally is happening in small cap stocks. Jefferies has some names to keep playing it
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Small-cap stocks have surged in the first few weeks of January, confirming an outperformance that's often seen early on in a new year. So far this year, the Russell 2000 Index – which tracks small-cap stocks — is up 7.4% through Monday's close, outperforming its large-cap counterpart, the Russell 1000, which is up 5% in the same period. Even within small-cap names, the smallest companies by market share have performed the best, according to a Jan. 24 note from Jefferies. "With the calendar turning to the new year, we have seen a nice relief rally in the smallest of the small caps with names below $500M [in market capitalization] up 11.3%," wrote Jefferies small-cap strategist Steven DeSanctis. Restaurants Bloomin' Brands —which owns chains such as Outback Steakhouse and Bonefish Grill — and Dave & Buster's top the Jefferies list of small-cap names with higher-quality themes.

☆ 8 stocks that have reclaimed their long-term bullish trend
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The 200-day moving average calculates the average price of the index over the last roughly 40 weeks. The S & P 500 ended Friday at 3,999.09 points, above the 200-day average of 3,981.22. On Monday, the S & P 500 broke a four-day winning streak , slipping 0.2% to 3,990.97, but it remained above that key point. About two out of every three S & P 500 stocks are individually above their respective 200-day moving averages, according O'Hara. All numbers are current through Friday's close: Airlines Alaska and Delta are both trading around 10% above their 200-day moving average.

☆ A former CVS nurse practitioner is suing the company after it fired her for refusing to prescribe birth control and Plan B for religious reasons
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Bethany Biron | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A former CVS employee in Texas is suing the company after it fired her for refusing to give out birth control. The suit claims the company granted her "religious accommodation" until it reversed the policy in August 2021. The suit claims CVS previously granted Strader religious accommodation so that she was not required to give out birth control at the MinuteClinic where she worked in Keller, Texas. Currently, six states — Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Mississippi, and South Dakota — allow pharmacists to refuse to dispense birth control pills or Plan B for religious reasons. Strader's suit follows similar legal action taken by CVS nurse practitioners in Virginia and Kansas, who also claim the company fired them for refusal to provide birth control to customers.

☆ Traders don't want to believe the Fed, so get used to a lot of choppiness
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Then Fed officials get on the tape say they're going to keep raising rates and keep them high until hell freezes over. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Monday said the central bank should raise interest rates above 5% and stay there for "a long time." Inflation data continues to show signs of cooling, but it's still high, and the Fed doesn't want to declare victory so they keep jawboning the markets down. The source of tension is that the trading community doesn't want to believe the Fed, and many are arguing the Fed is using stale data. "Wall Street does not believe the story being spun by the Fed," Harry Katica from Saut Strategy told his clients.

☆ Technical analysts agree January's strong start is a good omen, but here's what they expect to happen next
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Redler expects the S & P 500 could reach 3,980 to 4,000 before reversing lower. The S & P 500 was trading at about 3,940 on Monday. He expects the S & P 500 to put in a near-term top this week. He is watching the 200-day moving average on the S & P 500, which is literally the average of the last 200 closes. "The SPX [S & P 500] has spent the majority of the last three weeks between 3,800 and 3,900," Krinsky wrote in a note.

☆ Investor Stephen Weiss makes a tactical trade on improving inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stephen Weiss bought shares of Microsoft , which could be a tactical trade for investors after sentiment around growth stocks improved on some better inflation data. Part of my portfolio's long term, but I'm also, you know, I can trade," Weiss said Monday on CNBC's "Halftime Report." So that's why I bought Microsoft. Despite the steep drop, Microsoft outperformed other mega-cap tech stocks investors found more risky, such as Amazon, which plunged more than 49%, and Alphabet, which dropped about 39%. SoFi's Liz Young said she agreed with Microsoft as a trade for short-term investors, though she warned investors against suddenly turning bullish on mega-cap tech stocks.

☆ Simple ‘first five days’ stock market indicator is poised to send a good omen for 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-07 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The stock market is set to post solid gains for the first five trading days of 2023, and according to the classic Wall Street indicator, the early strength could bode well for the full year. The so-called first five days rule suggests that if stocks perform well in the initial five sessions in a given year, the market is often up at the year-end, according to Stock Trader's Almanac, which studied the market phenomenon going back to 1950. When stocks finish the first five days higher, the S & P 500 has been positive 83% of the time at year-end with an average gain of 14%, according to Stock Trader's Almanac. The S & P 500 has risen 1.5% through the first four trading days of 2023, giving it a good chance of finishing first five days higher. While the indicator might send a positive signal, most on Wall Street are expecting a volatile year, especially during the first half.

☆ Happy 50th anniversary to the discovery of the Santa Claus rally
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Happy 50th Anniversary to the discovery of the Santa Claus rally. It's that time of year again: the Santa Claus rally. Santa Claus rally: what it is The Santa Claus rally is a short rally that runs from the last five trading days of the year to the first two trading days of the New Year. According to one study, a Santa Claus rally has materialized in four out of every five years since 1950. His father, Yale Hirsch, a friend of mine for many years, discovered and named the Santa Claus rally in 1972.

☆ Investors play defense heading into final trading days of year but still hope for a Santa rally surprise
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The final trading week of the year is arriving with investors more concerned about defensive positioning than whether the stock market can muster a Santa Claus rally. Stocks were mostly lower in the past week, with the S & P 500 down about 0.6% as of Friday morning. After today, there are just four trading days left in the year, with markets closed on Monday for the Christmas holiday. In an interview on CNBC Thursday, Tepper said he is "leaning short" on the stock market because of global central bank tightening. The S & P 500 has averaged a 1.3% gain in that period, going back to 1950, and has been positive four out of every five years.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investors look for 'Santa Rally' after grim year in U.S. stocks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Bruised investors are hoping a so-called Santa Claus rally can soften the pain of a tough year in U.S. stocks and potentially brighten the outlook for 2023. Friday is this year's start date for this rally named after Santa Claus - if it happens. The phenomenon has lifted the S&P 500 an average of 1.3% since 1969, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. A December without a Santa rally has been followed by a weaker-than-average year, data from LPL Financial going back to 1950 showed. "The lack of a 'Santa Claus rally' this month, with a 'lump of coal selloff' in its place, is a troubling sign about 2023 US equity returns," strategists at DataTrek wrote.

☆ Investors see typical seasonal patterns failing with little hope for a Santa rally or January bounce
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The usually reliable indicator historically shows the S & P 500 gains 73% of the time in the coming year when rising during those seven days. When the S & P was negative, the market was up about half that amount for the year, just 4.7%. The S & P was down 3.1% in February of 2022. In the year 2021, the S & P 500 gained 27%, but there are two distinct patterns following that type of gain. But, historically, whenever the decline started in the first or second quarter, the S & P 500 was higher by the end of the year 100% of the time.

☆ Wall Street's 'free lunch'? A simple holiday trade that tends to beat the market
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The almanac's editor-in-chief Jeffrey Hirsch wrote that "this `free lunch' is an extremely short-term strategy reserved for the nimblest traders." Also listed on the table are the average percentage of analysts rating each one a buy and the potential upside represented by analysts' 12-month price targets. Five financial stocks also popped up: Capital One , Signature Bank , Extra Space Storage , Lincoln National and Global Payments . Three tech stocks, two utilities and one consumer non-discretionary and one healthcare stock each round out the screen. Salesforce and Signature Bank both offer potential upside of more than 70%, the highest of the 13, based on analysts' average price targets.

☆ Stocks challenged by technical factors as market heads into final trading days of 2022
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Bad data should now correspond with higher bond prices (lower rates) and lower stocks," according to Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG. Broke the line Oppenheimer technical analyst Ari Wald said he sees a warning in the S & P 500 chart. "The S & P 500 was rejected at its 2022 downtrend last week marking resistance around 4,070," he wrote in his weekend note. "Our take is that the [S & P 500] index's base is intact," he wrote. But following that gain, the S & P was down 4.6% a month later; 4.6% three months later and 19.6% six months later.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead U.S. stock rally faces gauntlet of CPI data, Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The index has bounced about 10% from its October lows but remains down more than 17% on the year. Equities’ trajectory in the near future may depend on whether Tuesday’s consumer price index report shows inflation is responding to the most aggressive Fed hiking cycle since the 1980s. Hotter-than-expected data could bolster fears of more Fed hawkishness, pressuring stocks. A second helping of benign data could bolster the case for a peak in inflation and buoy equities further. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, investors are factoring in a half-percentage-point rate hike from the Fed next week, a step down from its recent series of three-quarter-point increases.

The global macro, policy and political mix dynamic has never been more uncertain, and standard economic and market models based on mean reversion and historical precedence have rarely been less useful. It is against this backdrop that Saxo Bank and Standard Chartered have released their extremely-out-of-consensus 'Outrageous Predictions' and 'Market Surprises of 2023' forecasts, respectively. Given the political, economic and financial market turmoil of the past 12 months, none of these scenarios over the next 12 could be completely ruled out. chartWALL, MEET MUDLet's take a few of these predictions, starting with Standard Chartered's yuan and euro calls. Deutsche Bank's baseline 2023 economic outlook even has euro zone growth outpacing U.S. growth next year.

☆ Analysts think these November winners can rally further — and give 2 more than 160% upside
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The stock is buy rated by about 70% of analysts covering it, who give it average upside of 164.3%. Meanwhile, shares in Warren Buffett-backed BYD were up just 9% in November, but analysts think the stock could rally 68.4% looking ahead. Tech stocks A slew of Chinese tech stocks made the screen too, including Alibaba and Tencent . Analysts are bullish on Alibaba, with 89% of analysts holding a buy rating on the stock and giving it average upside of 39%. Andrew Maynard, head of equities at investment bank China Renaissance, believes Chinese Big Tech stocks such as Alibaba and Tencent are "incredibly cheap."

☆ Sam Bankman-Fried's Alameda Research shielded FTX from a loss of up to $1 billion after a customer trade blew up a year before the exchange collapsed, report says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Alameda Research in 2021 stepped in to shelter FTX from a loss of up to $1 billion, the FT reported Friday. An FTX client's leveraged bet on a little-known token tore through buffers aimed at shielding FTX from losses. The April 2021 incident highlights the deep ties between Sam Bankman-Fried's companies. The April 2021 incident took place more than a year before FTX collapsed last month following a run on the exchange. The ties between the exchange and the hedge fund are at the center of the implosion of FTX, with allegations that FTX had lent customer funds to Alameda for trading.

☆ These are the best-performing stocks over the last 10 Decembers, and analysts love them
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

December is typically a strong month for stocks, and there are several good opportunities in the index for investors looking to get ahead. That makes it the third-best month on average for the broader market index over that time period. Here are the 15 stocks: Casino stock Caesars Entertainment stands out as the stock with the highest median gain at 8.7%. Payments technology provider Global Payments, a financial stock, is also on the list with a 1% median gain from the last 10 Decembers. The stock has buy ratings from 80% of analysts covering them.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Stocks typically rally in December, investors have some caution this year
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

September, meanwhile, is the worst month of average for stocks, with a 0.7% average decline. Gains would be welcomed by many investors after seeing the S&P 500 Index (.SPX) fall around 16% so far this year. Still, weighing on the market has been the U.S. Federal Reserve's actions to aggressively tighten interest rates to fight inflation. The average Santa rally has boosted the S&P 500 by 1.3% since 1969, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. The painful double-digit declines in both U.S. stocks and bonds, meanwhile, have made both asset classes more attractive for long-term investors, said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.

SINGAPORE, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices extended declines on Thursday as concerns over geopolitical tensions eased, while rising numbers of COVID-19 cases in China added to demand worries in the world's largest crude importer. Brent crude futures fell by $1.04, or 1.1%, to $91.82 a barrel by 0430 GMT. On Wednesday Brent dropped by 1.1% and WTI 1.5% after Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary restarted. "Crude oil fell after NATO cleared Russia's missile attack on Poland, while demand concerns (are) back to trader's focus amid ongoing China's COVID curbs and gloomy global economic outlooks," said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets. Sustained concerns about weak demand in China are also "keeping markets grounded," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.

☆ Oil falls as geopolitical tensions ease, China COVID concerns return
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Emily Chow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 65 cents, or 0.8%, to $84.94 a barrel. Brent dropped by 1.1% and WTI declined by 1.5% on Wednesday after Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary restarted. "Crude oil fell after NATO cleared Russia's missile attack on Poland, while demand concerns (are) back to trader's focus amid ongoing China's COVID curbs and gloomy global economic outlooks," said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets. Oil prices eased despite a larger-than-expected draw in crude oil stockpiles in the United States, added Teng. read moreSustained concerns of demand weakness in China are also "keeping markets grounded," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, as it continues to report more COVID cases in major cities.

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