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☆ An investment chief who manages $1 billion in assets shares 10 investments that will reduce your portfolio's volatility while this bear market lasts longer than expected.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Here are 10 ways to protect against losses and volatility in this long-lasting bear market. "It went beyond dodging a bullet," Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said of first quarter earnings results in a late April interview with Insider. Weaker earnings raise valuation concernsBut some investors aren't impressed by Q1 earnings — at least not enough to get bullish. Besides weaker earnings growth and lofty valuations, another risk for stocks is that upcoming quarterly results will miss higher expectations in a shaky economy. "We're still looking at fairly high-single-digit earnings growth for the next couple of quarters overall," Sosnick said.

☆ 5 executives at an elite investing conference shared their views on the Fed's master plan for interest rates — and the consensus was that markets are unprepared for the pain in store
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( William Edwards | Akin Oyedele | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

But executives at this week's Milken Institute Global Conference warn that may not be the case, and that markets are ill-prepared for rates to stay higher for longer. Here's the Fed's March meeting dot-plot, which shows where members of the Federal Open Market Committee see rates at the end of 2023. While markets are pricing in a pause in June at 5-5.25%, here's where they believe rates will most likely be in December: 4.25-4.5%. Below, we've compiled what five of them said on Monday about their expectations for Fed policy and financial markets. And as our chief economist likes to say, at higher rates, bodies will continue to float to the top over the course of the summer."

☆ US stocks rise as investors cheer strong corporate earnings and shake off banking fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks rose on Friday, boosted by a streak of strong earnings reports. 79% of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings have beated estimates, according to FactSet. Investors digested fresh bank weakness amid reports that First Republic is headed for FDIC receivership. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Meanwhile, the Employment Cost Index rose 1.2% over the past quarter, a sign that inflation's presence is still being felt in the economy.

That means portfolio managers are having to factor a stronger yen into global stock selection in way they have not for years, with some even anticipating mergers and acquisitions as the Japanese market revs up. "The trigger for the revaluation of the Japanese markets is higher rates and then a stronger yen. Japan's insurers and pension funds alone hold $1.84 trillion in foreign assets, Deutsche Bank calculates, greater than the size of South Korea's economy. "Policy normalisation could turn back the clock for Japanese investors," Deutsche Bank strategists said in a note. Carmignac, like many global investors, has maintained an underweight position towards Japanese stocks but, Leroux said, it was looking to raise this to neutral.

The PMI was driven by the services sector as consumer spending on travel, leisure and entertainment showed strength while manufacturing remained weak. S&P Global's input price index - a good guide to future inflation pressures - showed the slowest growth in costs for firms since March 2021, although overall cost pressures remained high by historical standards. There were also signs of recovery in Friday's consumer confidence survey by polling firm GfK which rose to its highest since February last year, albeit to weak levels. There was a reminder of the problems facing many consumers in official retail sales data also published on Friday. "A strong performance from retailers in January and February means the three-month picture shows positive growth for the first time since August 2021," he said.

☆ America's richest banker quadrupled his firm's assets last year by making a massive bet that inflation would spike
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

His firm's assets shot up from $7.5 billion to $32.6 billion after making a big get on inflation, MarketWatch reported. According to MarketWatch, Beal Bank's assets shot up from $7.5 billion in late 2021 to $32.6 billion by the end of 2022 after making a bet timing inflation's sudden spike. Beal Bank bought up $21.2 billion of Treasury bonds, MarketWatch wrote citing sources familiar and filings with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. As a result, Beal Bank's net income rose from $600 million to $1.48 billion over the course of a year. It isn't the first time Beal Bank has deftly navigated a volatile market.

☆ Workers in the US now want at least $76,000 to start a new job as minimum wage expectations continue to rise in a red-hot job market
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Nidhi Pandurangi | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Employees' wage expectations have risen to $76,000 a year, according to a New York Fed survey. The rise in expected salary levels comes at a time of historically low unemployment rates in America. Those with a college degree raised their reservation wage expectations by about $5,000 to over $97,000. The rise in expected salary levels makes sense, as it comes at a time of historically low unemployment rates in America. This, in turn, leads to employees upping their salary expectations to combat inflation's erosive effects.

☆ Fed's Bostic sees one more quarter-point rate hike, then a hold 'for quite some time'
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said Tuesday he envisions the central bank approving one more interest rate increase before pausing to see how policy tightening is impacting the economy. That 0.25 percentage point increase likely will come at the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee's May 2-3 meeting. "If the data come in as I expect, we will be able to hold there for quite some time," he said. Bostic said inflation is still running too strong to consider cuts. Bostic added that tight monetary policy is likely to persist despite the recent troubles in the banking industry that are forecast to trigger the recession.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Inflation's cooling on two fronts
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

March's producer price index confirmed inflation is cooling — and predicts consumer prices will drop further. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. And March's consumer price index report, released Wednesday, already showed that price increases are slowing for consumers. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Inflation's inventory gluts are here to stay and will hit the bottom line in weaker economy: CNBC Supply Chain Survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Lori Ann Larocco | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

But uncertainty about inventory management is significant, with almost one-quarter (23%) of supply chain managers saying they are not sure when gluts will be worked off. The supply chain pressures will be among the factors that weigh on quarterly numbers. Manufacturing orders and the economic outlook Recent data on manufacturing has shown a deterioration in the economy, with the ISM Manufacturing index in contraction level based on March data released this week. "This survey confirms that we remain in an era of serious supply chain cost-to-serve challenges," Baxa said. FreightWaves and ITS Logistics are CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map data providers.

☆ Morning Bid: Dogged inflation shades rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But for most major stock and bond investments beyond the banking sector itself, the quarter remained a pretty upbeat one overall. "Inflation remains too high and recent indicators reinforce my view that there is more work to do," said Boston Fed chief Susan Collins. Futures markets are still broadly split on the chances of another Fed hike in May, but leaned a bit more on Friday to one more quarter point move. But core inflation, excluding energy and unprocessed food, ticked up as forecast to a new record high for the bloc at 7.5%. Germany said import price inflation fell to its lowest in two years at 2.8% in February.

☆ Bank of England raises interest rates again, sees inflation falling
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Sounding more upbeat about the outlook for the country's slow pace of economic growth, the BoE's nine rate-setters voted 7-2 in favour of a 25 basis-point increase in Bank Rate to 4.25%. "The MPC will continue to monitor closely any effect on the credit conditions faced by households and businesses, and hence the impact on the macroeconomic and inflation outlook," it said. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its main interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, and indicated it was on the verge of pausing further increases. However, it said it expected wages to rise slightly less than it had previously forecast, as inflation expectations fell. The BoE was the first major central bank to start raising rates in December 2021 and until this week had seemed likely to join the Bank of Canada which this month stopped raising borrowing costs.

☆ US stocks slip ahead of Fed's decision on interest rates following bank crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks slipped Wednesday before the Federal Reserve's March rate decision. The Fed's decision is the first since SVB's collapse set off distress in regional banks. The policy decision is due at 2:00 p.m. Eastern and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at 2:30 p.m. Eastern. Cathie Wood says the Fed's rate hikes hit Ark's strategy like an 'earthquake' as the fund logs a $2 billion loss. Top economist David Rosenberg said the Fed should put bigger rate hikes back on the table after bouts of 'speculative lunacy'.

☆ Eggs and bacon are finally getting cheaper
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Jason Lalljee | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The cost of eggs is finally falling, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Inflation cooled down overall, and egg prices fell 6.7% last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index release on Tuesday. The price of bacon also decreased by 1.5%, and even cheese and orange juice experienced modest declines in cost. Inflation impacted the cost of eggs as the avian flu began to spread in earnest last February. The egg news is welcome, especially as food prices increased slightly overall, by about 0.4% compared to January's 0.5% increase.

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with MAI Capital Management’s Chris Grisanti and Wells Fargo’s Michael Schumacher
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with MAI Capital Management’s Chris Grisanti and Wells Fargo’s Michael SchumacherMAI Capital Management’s Chris Grisanti and Wells Fargo’s Michael Schumacher, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed's next move, inflation's impact on the economy and markets.

☆ MAI Capital Management’s Chris Grisanti says we're still headed for a garden-style recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMAI Capital Management’s Chris Grisanti says we're still headed for a garden-style recessionMAI Capital Management’s Chris Grisanti and Wells Fargo’s Michael Schumacher join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed's next move, inflation's impact on the economy and markets.

☆ A reading of more than 200,000 jobs added in February would be the Fed's trigger for a big March rate hike, Barclays says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed will likely upsize its March rate hike if the February jobs report shows 200,00 or more jobs added, Barclays said. Investors on Tuesday quickly pushed up the odds the Fed deliver a rate hike of a half-percentage point after downsizing the pace to 25 basis points last month. The February jobs report due Friday is expected to show the world's largest economy added 203,000 jobs, with a steady unemployment rate of 3.4%. The January jobs report trounced expectations with growth of 517,000 jobs. Such moves would put the peak of the Fed's benchmark interest rate at 5.5%-5.75% assuming that after June, the Fed sees sufficient evidence that slowing in employment and wages warrant a pause in rate hikes, Barclays said.

☆ Inflation's direction will drive crypto's action in March now that the 2023 rally has faded
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Bitcoin and ether are starting the new trading month on a positive note – following a relatively flat month – each rising less than 1% Wednesday. In the near term, our bet is on the dollar pulling back," he said Wednesday. If we're right and more upside lies ahead in the near term, it's tough to think crypto isn't a major beneficiary." Long-term investors see regulation as a positive development ultimately, but it can put pressure on prices in the near term, Kruger said. Breaking past $25,000 Although bitcoin held up in February, investors are unsure when to expect a rocket ship rally .

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Inflation in January was hotter than expected. Markets felt the heat
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, thinks that they're the markets skimming off speculative froth. "Markets will likely stay choppy during these months where higher rates have yet to materially cool consumer spending," wrote Roach. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: January's inflation reading was hotter than expected. Markets felt the heat
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

☆ Why the resilient US economy is making it difficult for stock investors to thrive
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-25 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The recent stock rally is crumbling as inflation data shows the Fed still has more work to do. But data also shows the economy is strong, and that could help the US avoid a recession. But investors aren't cheering for a strong economy. This follows data earlier in the month that showed the US economy has been resilient in the face of higher interest rates. And, ultimately, the Fed will have the last word for stocks, even if the economy holds up to its aggressive policy.

☆ Fed economists say the central bank will have to cause serious pain to Americans and the economy if it sticks to its current path
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

In the Fed minutes released this week, the central bank's own economists have started to sound the alarm on a recession. Jerome Powell, for his part, has insisted that the Fed's 2% inflation target is set in stone. The jobless rate today stands at 3.4%. We will have other things to worry about at that point besides whether the Fed's inflation target should be 2.0 or 2.75 percent." How realistic do you think the Fed's 2% inflation target is?

☆ 'Stubborn' food inflation leaves U.S. shoppers with slim appetite for other goods
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Siddharth Cavale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Higher prices on food led to soft sales of electronics, toys, home and apparel in the most recent quarter at Walmart. McMillon said he believed inflation on dry groceries and items made for immediate consumption would remain high "for a while". "Food inflation has been the most stubborn of all the categories," Walmart's U.S. CEO John Furner said. Sharp sales declines in categories other than food are forcing retailers like Target (TGT.N) to slash prices on everything from toys to electronics. While groceries comprise 56% of Walmart sales, they make up about 20% of sales at Target, which depends more on home furnishings, apparel and beauty.

☆ Mexican central bank poised for lower rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"And, thus, limiting the next decision by referring to a policy rate adjustment of lower magnitude implies a high and costly risk of correction if the assumptions do not materialize," she said. In the minutes, board members underscored their concern over core inflation, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices, even as headline inflation has eased. "Most members pointed out that core inflation, which reflects inflation's trend more accurately, still does not show a downward trend. All five board members expressed concern that core inflation was more persistent than expected. The latest inflation data, released on Thursday, showed a slight easing, with annual core inflation down to 8.38% in the first half of February from 8.46% in the second half of January.

☆ JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says a soft landing is still likely
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says a soft landing is still likelyCNBC's Jim Cramer joins the 'Halftime Report' with Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan CEO, to discuss artificial intelligence and inflation's impact on the economy.

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