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[1/3] The Standard Chartered bank logo is seen at their headquarters in London, Britain, July 26, 2022. The broader European banking index (.SX7P) fell as much as 2.4% to its lowest in four months by 1017 GMT. Top fallers on the index were Standard Chartered, down 9%, Swedbank (SWEDa.ST), down 7% and BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA), down around 4%. Concerns about China's economic fragility are also hitting some European banks with major operations in Asia. Sabadell (SABE.MC) rose around 3.7% after raising its outlook for 2023 net interest income growth on the back of higher interest rates.
Persons: Peter Nicholls, Chris Hiorns, Banks, Hiorns, Angelo Meda, Meda, Iain Withers, Naomi Rovnick, Joice Alves, Jesus Aguado, Danilo Masoni, Amanda Cooper, John Stonestreet, Toby Chopra Organizations: Chartered, REUTERS, BNP, European Central Bank, Traders, SIM, Sabadell, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, LONDON, Milan, Asia, Madrid
The US economy is headed for a recession, but it's likely to be milder than prior slumps, Apollo's chief economist said. That's because any potential slowdown this time around would be "engineered" by the Fed, Torsten Sløk told CNBC. When recession arrives, the Fed can undo the measures it took that initially slowed the economy, he added. Another recession is coming, but this time around the culprit is also the savior, making it a lot less harmful, according to Apollo Management's chief economist, Torsten Sløk. "Here today, this is all engineered by the Fed, the slowdown," Sløk said.
Persons: Torsten Sløk, , Apollo, Sløk Organizations: CNBC, Service, Fed Locations: It's
LONDON, Oct 24 (Reuters) - The Bank of England is likely done with policy tightening and will leave Bank Rate at 5.25% on Nov. 2, according to the vast majority of economists polled by Reuters who did however caution the chance of another increase this year was high. Only 12 economists forecast a quarter point rise to 5.50% at the November Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Inflation was expected to gradually decline across the forecast horizon but it won't reach target until Q2 2025, the poll showed. Around one-third of economists expected the Bank to act earlier. The BoE was forecast to reduce Bank Rate by 50 basis points in the fourth quarter, putting it at 4.50% by year-end.
Persons: James Smith, Elizabeth Martins, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, BoE, ING's Smith, Jonathan Cable, Prerana Bhat, Sujith Pai, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Bank, ING, MPC, HSBC, United States Federal Reserve, European, Thomson
US10Y 5D mountain 10-year yield this week The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached the 5% milestone late Thursday, raising questions of how long it will stay elevated and what the effect will be on stocks. "This is the last leg of the upmove" from the 2020 low, when 10-year yields touched 0.31%, he said. Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton also pinned 5.25% as the next resistance level for the 10-year bond yield. Meanwhile, Piper Sandler's chief market technician Craig Robinson also said the 10-year yield is due for a pullback. Ciana, on the other hand, estimates the 10-year yield likely staying above 5% for a while.
Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Paul Ciana, Elliott, Ciana, Katie Stockton, Piper, Craig Robinson, Robinson Organizations: Treasury, Atlanta, RBC, Wolfe Research, Bank of America Locations: Stockton
Jeffrey Gundlach says long-duration Treasurys will make a good short-term trade in a recession. Gundlach also sees agency mortgage securities and commercial mortgage bonds as attractive. "We like long-term treasury bonds for the short-term trade going into a recession. "There has been about a 50% drawdown in the long bond, which means there is now potential for the long bond to go up in price." In calling a recession on the horizon, he also touted agency mortgage-backed securities and commercial mortgage bonds as attractive investments.
Persons: Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, Organizations: Service, DoubleLine Capital, AAA
CNN —Dollar General has brought back its former chief executive in an attempt to revive its struggling business. On Thursday, the discount chain announced that it had reinstated Todd Vasos as CEO, replacing Jeff Owen. Shares of Dollar General, which have been under pressure this year, surged in after-hours trading Thursday after the announcement. Earlier this year Dollar General workers protested over unsafe working conditions at the store.. Conversely, during Vasos’ seven years as CEO, Dollar General more than doubled its market capitalization.
Persons: Todd Vasos, Jeff Owen, Vasos, Owen, , Michael Calbert, Neil Saunders, Oppenheimer, Rupesh Parikh Organizations: CNN,
Brent crude was up $3.24, or 3.8%, to $87.85 a barrel by 11 a.m. ET (1500 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $86.19 a barrel, up $3.40 or about 4.1%. Oil rigs are seen at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina January 21, 2019. Analysts suggested the implications of the conflict could include a potential slowdown in Iranian exports, which have grown significantly this year, despite U.S. sanctions. Any production and export disruption would exacerbate supply tightness as most analysts expect markets to be in a deficit in the second half of the year.
Persons: recouping, Brent, WTI, Tudor Pickering, Matt Portillo, Agustin Marcarian, Saxo Bank's Ole Hansen, Caroline Bain, Arathy Somasekhar, Natalie Grover, Andrew Hayley, Emily Chow, Kirsten Donovan, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: U.S, West Texas, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Saturday, REUTERS, Israel, White, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Saudi, Israel, HOUSTON, Palestinian, Holt, Gaza, Vaca, Patagonian, Neuquen, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Washington, Riyadh, Moscow, Russia, U.S, Iran, Houston, London, Beijing, Singapore
Oil prices jump as Middle East turmoil roils markets
  + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( Natalie Grover | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Oil rigs are seen at Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas drilling, in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices surged more than 3% on Monday as military clashes between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas ignited fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East. While the underlying supply-demand balance is unaffected, said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM, "any rise in tension in the Middle East usually leads to an increase in oil prices and it is no different this time around". "If the conflict envelopes Iran... up to 3% of global oil supply is at risk. And if a wider conflict eventuates that ends up impacting transit through the Strait of Hormuz, around 20% of global oil supply could be held hostage," energy analyst Saul Kavonic told Reuters.
Persons: Agustin Marcarian, Brent, WTI, Tamas Varga, Saul Kavonic, Natalie Grover, Andrew Hayley, Emily Chow, Miral Fahmy, Jason Neely Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, West Texas, Saturday, Israel, White, Citi, Reuters, International Energy Agency, Thomson Locations: Vaca, Patagonian, Neuquen, Argentina, Israel, Palestinian, Gaza, Saudi Arabia, Washington, Riyadh, Saudi, Moscow, Iran, Hormuz, London, Beijing, Singapore
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. The surge in oil prices followed the largest military assault on Israel in decades, with hundreds dead and several abducted. Hedge funds had, as of Friday, ramped up selling to the fastest pace since early June in shares of U.S. companies that manufacture chemicals, building materials and paper products, said the note from Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage. U.S. energy stocks saw net sales in the week ending October 6 for the second straight week in a row and in the eight previous trading sessions, the bank said. The oil price was up by more than 3% on the day on Monday at $87.27 a barrel.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, Brent, WTI, Nell Mackenzie, Amanda Cooper Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Global, Saturday, Israel, White, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Washington, Riyadh, Saudi
Israel responded with a declaration of war and a strong military response in the Gaza Strip, home to 2 million Palestinians. President Joe Biden ordered a U.S. naval carrier strike group to the region after pledging full support to Israel. Biden on Sunday spoke with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, and pledged the full support of the U.S., including military assistance. “Geopolitical risks are back in focus amid the attack in Israel on Saturday,” said James Demmert, chief investment officer at Main Street Research. Key data on U.S. inflation is due to be released Wednesday with the producer price index and then Thursday with the consumer price index.
Persons: Joe Biden, Yoav Gallant, Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, , James Demmert, Tony Welch, “ It’s, Dan Swan, Swan, ” Swan, , Kevin McCarthy Organizations: Israeli, Main, Research, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, McKinsey, “ Airlines, Rep Locations: Israel, Gaza, U.S, New York, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Washington
There is no set rule or shared agreement among G7 advanced nations on what kind of currency moves are defined as "excess volatility" that justify intervention, Shinohara said. "But usually, when you talk about excess volatility you have in mind a timeframe of several days or weeks," rather than several months, he said in an interview on Friday. The remarks contrast with those of incumbent top currency diplomat Masato Kanda, who said on Wednesday that steady yen falls over a protracted period could also warrant intervention. G7 and G20 major economies have a shared understanding that currency moves ought to reflect economic fundamentals, and that excess volatility was undesirable. In Japan, the finance ministry has jurisdiction over currency policy and decides whether and when to intervene.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Naoyuki Shinohara, Shinohara, Masato Kanda, Leika Kihara, Kim Coghill Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Reuters, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, Asia
A report card for the stock market as it approaches one year since the October 2022 bottom of the mini-bear market would probably read, "Good effort, shows perseverance, needs improvement." The equal-weight S & P 500 is up less than 12% from its low. The median stock in the index is up between 3% and 4% over the past 12 months. All four times since 1979, the S & P 500 and Russell 2000 were both higher in the fourth quarter. The S & P 500 is now at 17.7-times 12-month forward profit forecasts, according to FactSet, down from almost 20 in late July.
Persons: Doug Ramsey, Russell, Stephen Suttmeier, Jurrien Timmer, Stocks Organizations: Leuthold, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Fidelity Investments, Fed, Federal Reserve, Deutsche, Treasury
Billionaire investor Ken Griffin's flagship hedge fund rallied last month when the broader market was rattled by tight monetary policy as well as rising recession fears, according to a person familiar with the returns. Citadel's multistrategy flagship Wellington fund gained 1.7% in September, bringing its 2023 performance to 12.6%, the person said. The S&P 500 pulled back 4.9% last month, suffering its worst month of the year. Griffin, founder and CEO of Citadel, told CNBC last month he was skeptical that this year's rally, powered mostly by artificial intelligence-related stocks, can be sustainable. The Wellington fund soared 38% in 2022 for its best year ever.
Persons: Ken Griffin's, Citadel's multistrategy, Stocks, Pershing, Bill Ackman, Griffin Organizations: Treasury, Citadel, CNBC, Big Tech Locations: Wellington
Stocks are still on track to end the year "significantly higher," Fundstrat's Tom Lee said. By year-end, I expect markets to be at a significantly higher level," Lee said in a video to Fundstrat clients on Wednesday. He pointed to higher bond yields and still-high inflation, which have worried investors and helped stoke a recent sell-off in equities. Lower inflation spells good news for the economy and for stocks, as it could nudge the Fed to dial back high interest rates. Central bankers raised interest rates aggressively over the past year and a half to cool off inflation, which weighed heavily on equities last year.
Persons: Stocks, Tom Lee, Lee, , there's, Brent Organizations: Service, stoke Locations: Greece, Germany
Clean Energy Fuel 's venture into dairy-based renewable natural gas might just be its saving grace in an industry highly sensitive to interest rates, according to Raymond James. The firm upgraded shares of the renewable energy company to strong buy from outperform, lifting its target price to $6. Clean Energy Fuels is down 25% so far this year as a range of worries drag renewable energy stocks. Year to date, the Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) is down over 23%, while the broader S & P 500 has gained over 10%. "We believe that once the Treasury unveils the rules, and investors can straightforward factor in Section 45Z into estimates for 2025 and beyond, Clean Energy shares should re-rate meaningfully higher," he added.
Persons: Raymond James, Pavel Molchanov, Molchanov, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Energy, Energy Fuels, Clean Energy, Treasury Department, Treasury Locations: Monday's
Inflation is bound for a resurgence in 2024, BlackRock strategists warned in a recent note. Strategists previously warned of a "full-employment recession" to hit the economy. AdvertisementAdvertisementInflation is bound to whipsaw next year as the US deals with two seismic shifts shaking the economy, according to BlackRock. But that downtrend is likely to end soon, the strategists warned. That outcome is part of a new regime of volatility markets are facing, the asset manager said, which involves higher interest rates, higher inflation, and sharp volatility.
Persons: , That's, stokes Organizations: BlackRock, Service, stoke, New York Fed Locations: whipsaw, BlackRock
But some stocks may offer a method for investors to weather the rising rate environment and find some safety. Treasury yields have marched higher in recent weeks, with the yield on both the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury notes hitting levels not seen in more than 15 years. The company's debt-to-equity ratio sits at 42%. Energy companies Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips also made the list, offering dividend yield of 3.1% and 3.8%, respectively. Exxon also offers the lowest debt-to-equity ratio of the group at roughly 21%.
Persons: Exxon's, FANG, Medtronic Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, CNBC Pro, Diamondback Energy, Energy, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, Exxon, Diamondback
An ongoing decline in job openings is not a good sign for the stock market, according to Bank of America. Job openings have dropped 27% since their peak of 12 million in March 2022. The bank highlighted that since 2001, job openings and the S&P 500 have had a strong correlation. With job openings down 27% since their March 2022 peak of 12 million, that suggests the stock market is likely to follow. "Strong correlation between US job openings (labor demand) and stock market," Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday note.
Persons: bode, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, that's Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Bank of America's, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon
Goldman Sachs expects rates to hold steady again as inflation trends down and the labor market remains strong. But Raymond Bridges, the portfolio manager of the Bridges Capital ETF, an actively managed equity long-only fund, believes the overall macro outlook is still bearish. But regional banks continue to access this program every week, Bridges said. But just because he's bearish on the macro outlook doesn't mean he's not going to take advantage of short-term opportunities. His ETF, launched on May 11, is a mix of US equity-index ETFs, large-cap stocks, and cash or cash equivalents.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Raymond Bridges, Bridges, Joseph Abate, Jerome Powell, he's bearish, Russell Organizations: Fed, Bridges Capital ETF, Barclays, Reuters, Regional Banking, Trust, BPI
CNN —People aren’t buying furniture like they used to. Last week, a pair of furniture retailers said they are experiencing a massive sales slump compared to last year. On Friday, shares of RH (RH) fell 16%, while Hooker Furnishings (HOFT) dropped 17%. The two companies are the latest in a growing list of furniture retailers seeing a slowdown after years of growth fueled by pandemic-era stay-at-home trends. Wayfair, an online furniture seller, saw its second-quarter revenue decline 3.4%, and La-Z-Boy, a furniture manufacturer, reported a 20% drop in sales in August.
Persons: Hooker, David L, Ryan, ” Williams, Laura Alber, Brad Thomas, ” Thomas, , Gary Friedman, Thomas, Bob Williams, Chris Moye, ” Hooker, Jeremy Hoff, Organizations: CNN, West Elm, Boston Globe, KeyBanc, Home, Target, Mortgage, Association Locations: Virginia, Wayfair, Williams, Sonoma, Lynnfield
One of the potentially big ones is that the S & P 500 on Wednesday closed below its 50-day moving average. That's typically considered a good short-term warning sign that the market is in a downtrend as traders de-risk ahead of potentially turbulent times. Those moves come at a time when other signs are mounting for a potential modest pullback, according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Colas advised investors to watch the Cboe Volatility Index for clues about where the market is heading in the near term. "Longer term investors may want to just sit out this modest pullback," Colas wrote.
Persons: Nicholas Colas, Colas Organizations: Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla, DataTrek Research, Big Tech
The tech-dominated Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq-100 indexes notched their worst month of the year in August, and their weakest performance since December 2022. Last month's pullback came as no shock to many veteran technology investors. Big August losers included popular AI-connected names Marvell Technology and Advanced Micro Devices , which shed more than 10% and 7%, respectively. Building small positions Amid the August pullback, Meeks built positions in some favored AI names. MRVL 1M mountain Marvell Technology shares pull back Munster used August's volatility to scoop up some shares of Etsy .
Persons: Paul Meeks, who's, we've, Meeks, Fortinet, Gene Munster, he's, Greg Bassuk, Bassuk Organizations: Nasdaq, Nvidia, Marvell Technology, Devices, Meta, Apple, Marvell, Broadcom, Taiwan Semiconductor, Cadence Design Systems, Munster, AXS Locations: Etsy
Nvidia's market cap climbs amid tech turbulence in August
  + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A smartphone with a displayed NVIDIA logo is placed on a computer motherboard in this illustration taken March 6, 2023. Nvidia's shares surged last month, boosted by its quarterly revenue forecast, which exceeded analyst expectations as the artificial intelligence boom fuels demand for its chips. The market capitalization of Apple (AAPL.O) and Microsoft Corp's (MSFT.O) shares declined 4.4% and 2.4%, respectively, while Meta Platforms Inc's shares fell 7.1%. Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKa.N) market cap rose over 2% last month, as its shares touched a record high after the company's quarterly operating profit topped $10 billion for the first time. Reuters GraphicsIn China, Tencent Holdings'(0700.HK) market cap declined about 9% last month, as its core gaming business experienced weaker-than-expected growth in the quarter through June.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, behemoths, Apple, Johnson, Patturaja Murugaboopathy, Gaurav Dogra Organizations: NVIDIA, REUTERS, Nvidia, Reuters, Apple, Microsoft, Berkshire Hathaway's, Reuters Graphics, Tencent Holdings, HK, Thomson Locations: Berkshire, China, U.S, Bengaluru
Employers added 187,000 jobs in August, above expectations and in line with a labor market that is rebalancing back to normal, the Labor Department reported on Friday. Other labor market data released this week showed a gradual softening of demand for workers from employers. And private payroll firm ADP’s monthly jobs survey for August found employers added 177,000 jobs in the month, below expectations. “Clearly, the labor market is softening,” says Tony Welch, chief investment officer at Signature FD. The downshift reverses a period of high growth for the labor market coming out of the pandemic.
Persons: , Venkat Balakrishnan, Scott Hamilton, Tony Welch Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Resources, Compensation Consulting Locations: Washington
Seoul, South Korea CNN —As South Korea struggles to get young people interested in marriage and kids, authorities are trying a new tack: importing foreign workers to carry some of the household burden. The plan will expand the number of industries and companies eligible to employ foreign workers, as South Korea faces an aging population, shrinking workforce and labor shortages in various sectors. South Korea has long struggled with chronic labor shortages in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, Reuters reported. Some politicians have previously urged the government to import foreign workers to help alleviate the burdens on young couples and parents. Singapore’s migrant worker system is just as controversial for employing cheap foreign labor to sustain one of the world’s richest countries.
Persons: , They’ll, Seoul’s, , Housekeepers, Indonesia – Organizations: South Korea CNN, Authorities, Reuters, Ministry, Employment, Labor, Hong Locations: Seoul, South Korea, South, Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, birthrate, Korean, , Philippines, Indonesia
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