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US stocks still have further room to run, according to a Wednesday note from GlobalData TS Lombard. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe bull market in stocks that started earlier this year isn't ending anytime soon, according to a Wednesday note from GlobalData TS Lombard. TS Lombard highlighted eight charts to back up its bullish view on the US stock market. The Fed is approaching the top of its hiking cycle, although markets discounting early cuts may be too optimistic," TS Lombard said. Sentiment has largely normalized now; and the S&P 500, if anything, appears oversold today," TS Lombard said.
Persons: Andrea Cicione, Skylar Koning, Lombard, Disinflation, GlobalData Organizations: GlobalData, Lombard
The US won't see a resurgence in inflation, according to Jeremy Siegel. That was a reflection of poor productivity in the economy, Siegel said – a trend that has since turned around:"It was the worst productivity performance in over 70 years. This year we are hiring at less than half the pace and we have two to three times the level of GDP growth. That's why we can have this tremendous GDP growth and still have the disinflationary trend." And inflation won't reaccelerate as improving productivity justifies higher wages and drives more economic output, Siegel explained.
Persons: Jeremy Siegel, Wharton, Siegel, Jay Powell, Stocks Organizations: CNBC, Service, Atlanta Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, BlackRock
SummaryCompanies Retail sales increase 0.7% in July; June sales revised upCore retail sales jump 1.0%; June sales revised downImport prices rebound 0.4%; down 4.4% year-on-yearWASHINGTON, Aug 15 (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in July as Americans boosted online purchases and dined out more, suggesting the economy continued to expand early in the third quarter and keeping a recession at bay. Retail sales jumped 0.7% last month. Sales at food services and drinking places, the only services category in the retail sales report, shot up 1.4% after rising 0.8% in June. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales surged 1.0% in July. Data for June was revised lower to show these so-called core retail sales increasing 0.5% instead of the previously reported 0.6%.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Andrew Hunter, David Russell, Matthew Martin, Ben Ayers, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Commerce Department, Capital Economics, Retail, Reuters, Consumers, Market Intelligence, Wall, Treasury, Labor Department, Oxford Economics, delinquencies, New York Fed, Nationwide, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Columbus , Ohio
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're overall looking at a disinflationary train, says Yardeni Research presidentEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Yardeni's disinflation outlook, the odds of a rate cut next year, and more.
Persons: Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research
Bonds bruised, China stocks and rouble sink
  + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
With seasonal trading volumes so thin and the events and data diary bare today at least, there's a danger of over-interpreting recent market developments. But the backup in long-term U.S. bond yields over the past couple of weeks despite relatively unchanged expectations for Federal Reserve policy moves has clearly unsettled investors. Although 2-year Treasury yields remain below 5% and are lower than they were at midyear, 10-year Treasury yields continue to probe 9-month highs around 4.20% and the yield curve has disinverted by some 20 basis points this month as a result. China's yuan hit its lowest since June as traders look to a possible easing of 1-year interest rates on Tuesday. Events to watch for on Monday:* U.S. Treasury auctions 3-, 6-month billsReuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by XXXX <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Fitch, Goldman Sachs, Russia's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Micron Technology, Federal Reserve, United States, AAA, Treasury, . Treasury, Kremlin, Shanghai, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, United, midyear, China, Japan, Ukraine, Hong Kong, Asia
Some said the downgrade to June's data meant the rise in the PPI last month was in line with expectations. In the 12 months through July, the PPI increased 0.8% after gaining 0.2% in June, boosted by a lower base of comparison last year. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core goods prices were unchanged last month after falling 0.2% in June. In the 12 months through July, the so-called core PPI increased 2.7%, matching June's rise. As with all the July inflation data, the pick-up in the annual core PCE rate is due to unfavorable base effects.
Persons: Bill Adams, Will Compernolle, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: PPI, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Consumers, University of, CPI, Fed, Thomson Locations: August WASHINGTON, Dallas, U.S, New York, disinflation
The market has its mind made up: July's tame inflation reading means no more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The "patience" reference goes to whether policymakers will be satisfied that inflation will come back to normal without any further rate increases, or if additional tightening is necessary. Following Thursday's release of the consumer price index , which showed a 12-month inflation rate of 3.2%, markets upped their bets that the Fed is staying put. The chance of any additional rate increases also declined, dropping to 27.3% for November and 24.1% for December, as of about 1:30 p.m. Thus, there was some caution from the CPI internals, and a stock market rally cooled Thursday afternoon as Wall Street digested the report.
Persons: Quincy Krosby, Bill Adams, Rick Rieder, Tom Lee, Bradley Saunders Organizations: Federal, LPL, of Labor Statistics, Fed, Comerica Bank, Market Committee, Capital Economics Locations: BlackRock
The Consumer Price Index rose at a 3.2% annual rate in July, which was a slight increase over June's 3% reading. Typically, that would be associated with a jump in unemployment as businesses and consumers scale back. Yet the unemployment rate has remained below 4% -- low for the U.S. -- since February 2022, and stood at 3.5% as of last month. Others feel the economy remains slow to adjust to higher interest rates, and that the unemployment rate will ultimately rise before the Fed finishes its inflation fight. The current Fed "has been uniquely successful thus far in lowering inflation while leaving the unemployment rate at its lowest levels in roughly half a century," they wrote, with the potential that policy tightening so far "may bring about further declines in inflation without a dramatic rise in the unemployment rate.
Persons: Bryan Woolston, Pierre, Daniel Sarte, Paul Ashworth, Ashworth, Mary Daly, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci, Christina Fincher, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Kentucky, Center, REUTERS, Bryan Woolston WASHINGTON, . Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Graphics, North, Capital Economics, Traders, San Francisco Fed, Yahoo Finance, U.S, Thomson Locations: Frankfort , Kentucky, U.S, North America
In Asia, the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) edged 0.2% higher, following a 1.2% tumble a day earlier. Producer prices fell for a 10th consecutive month. "It is not likely to see China entering a full deflation path as core CPI is still resilient and driven by services." "Having said that, if we do not see further improvement in consumer sentiment, it is possible to see growing deflation risks in China." Brent crude futures eased 0.2% to $86.00 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also fell 0.2% to $82.73.
Persons: Issei Kato, Gary Ng, HSI, Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley, Dow, Stella Qiu, Ellen Zhang, Jamie Freed, Edmund Klamann, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, PPI, Asia Pacific, Reuters, Wall, U.S, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, SYDNEY, Italy, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, Brazil, Beijing
The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) edged 0.4% higher after a 1.2% tumble a day earlier. Closely watched China data on Wednesday showed consumer prices fell 0.3% in July from a year ago, the first decline since February 2021, although it was slightly better than the forecast of a 0.4% drop. Producer prices fell for a 10th consecutive month. 10-year yields slipped 2 basis points to 4.004%, after falling 5 basis points overnight to as low as 3.9840%, a one-week trough. Brent crude futures eased 0.2% to $86.02 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also fell 0.2% to $82.73.
Persons: Issei Kato, Carol Kong, Kong, Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley, Dow, Stella Qiu, Jamie Freed, Edmund Klamann Organizations: REUTERS, Japan's Nikkei, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Wall, Nasdaq, U.S, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, SYDNEY, Italy, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, Brazil
Stock futures rose slightly in overnight trading as Wall Street looked ahead to a key inflation reading that could impact the Federal Reserve's next rate move. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 87 points, or 0.25%. Disney gained 2% after announcing an upcoming price hike for ad-free Disney+ subscriptions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped about 191 points, or 0.54%, while the S&P 500 shaved off 0.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite shed 1.17%. Many on Wall Street are hoping for more signs of disinflation through the CPI report, and Friday's producer price index.
Persons: Dow Jones, Sahak Manuelian, CNBC's, Ralph Lauren Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Federal, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Disney, Wynn Resorts, Traders, Wedbush Securities, CPI, PPI, Six
Sentiment rebounded in China as the blue chip CSI300 index (.CSI300) turned positive to be up 0.07% after initially losing 0.54%. Australian shares (.AXJO) were up 0.15%, while Japan's Nikkei stock index (.N225) rose 0.29% after early trading up by nearly 0.8%. ANZ predicts China's July consumer price index to come in at minus 0.4% year-on-year. "Weak inflation in China should be a global disinflationary force in goods markets going forward." Minor measures to help property markets have been delivered in the past fortnight, but no broad stimulus has been outlined.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Hoon SYDNEY, Hong, HSI, Mizuho, Brent, Scott Murdoch, Lincoln Organizations: Yen, REUTERS, Federal, Japan's Nikkei, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Global, ANZ, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, United States, Asia, Pacific, U.S, Sydney
Michael Burry warned surplus inventory leads to price cuts, slimmer profits, and pressure on stocks. The shipping giant's earnings suggest "The Big Short" investor's call was at least partly right. In other words, many of the shipping giant's customers ordered fewer goods last quarter, and focused on offloading their bloated inventories instead. Burry, the investor of "The Big Short" fame, appears to have seen the downturn coming. But the fact that Maersk is seeing its customers cut back on shipping in order to reduce their inventories could signal that consumer spending is now under pressure as Burry predicted.
Persons: Michael Burry, Burry Organizations: Maersk, Service, Scion Asset Management Locations: Wall, Silicon, North America, Europe
Analysts point to receding recession concerns and the prospect of a less aggressive policy stance from the U.S. Federal Reserve as factors fuelling hopes for a broader market rally. The second quarter earnings season has started positively for cyclical sectors, with over a quarter of the global companies announcing their results so far, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. "The upcoming earnings season has the potential to broaden the rally for sure. However, there are plenty of laggards especially in cyclical sectors such as financials and consumer discretionary, which are available at attractive valuations, analysts say. Over the past month, the communication services, mining and financial sectors have all posted about 5% gains, outpacing the tech sector's modest 2% rise.
Persons: Puneet Singh, Singh, Alastair Pinder, Derek Izuel, Patturaja Murugaboopathy, Noel Randewich, Vidya Ranganathan, Alison Williams Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Reuters, Societe Generale, Carnival Corp, Equity, Nasdaq, Intelligence, Royce, Reuters Graphics Reuters, HSBC Research, Shelton Capital Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Singapore, Asia, Europe, California
Its losing streak could carry on with the Fed taking a "data-dependent approach" to interest rates. Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would start taking a "data-dependent approach" to rate hikes, with inflation cooling rapidly and the jobs market holding firm. When interest rates stop rising, the dollar becomes less attractive to foreign investors seeking higher yields, meaning the currency is likely to weaken against its rivals. The key number for currency traders to watch going forward will now be the monthly inflationary print, analysts said. If that cooling carries on, the dollar will likely keep sliding – but any flare-up could encourage the Fed to bring in further rate hikes, which could offer some support to the currency.
Persons: that's, Jerome Powell, John Hardy Organizations: Fed, Service, greenback, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon
"We now believe that the Fed is on a prolonged 'hawkish hold,'" she said. "In our base case, their next move will likely be a cut but it will take until 2024 until we see it. That said, Powell will have no choice but to keep the threat of hikes alive, lest he encourage markets to prematurely price in cuts and re-ignite inflation expectations." "Indeed, throughout this coming extended pause, the risk to our base case will likely almost always be for one last hike to cement the disinflationary trend," she added. — Tanaya Macheel
Persons: Frances Donald, Powell Organizations: Fed, Manulife Investment Management
Inflation is falling, with the headline consumer price index (CPI) measure slowing to 3.0% in June from 4.0% in May. The current debate is whether more rate increases might be needed to ensure "disinflation" continues or if doing more could cause unnecessary damage to the economy. Core PCE was last reported at 3.8% for May. But none of the inflation gauges polled by Reuters - CPI, core CPI, PCE and core PCE - were expected to reach 2% until 2025 at the earliest. A slight majority of economists who answered an additional question, 14 of 23, said wage inflation would be the most sticky component of core inflation.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jan Nevruzi, Doug Porter, Indradip Ghosh, Prerana Bhat, Maneesh Kumar, Ross Finley, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Reuters, Fed, NatWest Markets, PCE, CPI, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S
Like many, they home in on the outsized drop in used-car prices - one of the key aggravators of 'core' inflation that at 4.8% is still well above the now sub-3% headline CPI rate. Pointing to four straight months of ebbing 'trimmed mean' inflation measures of core inflation - which strip out high and low outliers - the Morgan Stanley team doubt June was a bum steer and see core disinflation more "a trend rather than a headfake". Inflation surprisesFed estimates of R* natural interest rateReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsR-STAR GAZINGOthers doubt the optimism, of course. And it's the latter that homes in on the prospect of an inflation undershoot. Further Fed tightening after this month, then, could well see markets start to consider inflation actually undershooting 2% targets after all - but dragging recession back onto the dashboard to boot.
Persons: it's, Morgan Stanley, Christopher Waller, Guneet Dhingra, Allen Liu, Janet Yellen jived, Mike Dolan Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters, Barclays, Global, Bank of America, Treasury, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Intriguingly
If the U.S. economy has a "soft landing" - no recession this year with inflation near target, and only a mild downturn next year with unemployment staying historically low - Jerome Powell may lay claim to being the most successful Fed chief in history. Powell was frequently on the receiving end of public lashings from his then boss - "Clueless," "horrendous lack of vision" and "pathetic!" "Kudos to Powell if he can achieve a soft landing. Greenspan, dubbed 'the Maestro' by his admirers, was Fed chief from 1987 to 2006. Not only that, his 36% rating was the lowest of any Fed chair since the survey series began in 2001.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Janet Yellen, Donald Trump, Trump, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Volcker, Greenspan, Joe LaVorgna, Alan Blinder, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Joe, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Powell's, Republican, Nikko Securities, Trump White House, Reuters, New York Fed, Gallup, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S
Gold edges lower on slight dollar uptick
  + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices edged lower on Monday as the dollar inched up, although investors largely bet on the U.S. Federal Reserve hitting the brakes soon on interest rate hikes. Spot gold fell 0.1% to $1,952.74 per ounce by 0307 GMT, around $11 lower from the three-month high hit on Friday. "Whilst inflation remains high, markets are responding to the relative change over the absolute level of interest rates going forward. And if peak cycles are close, it is another supportive feature for gold, alongside central bank buying," Simpson added. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Persons: Matt Simpson, Simpson, Talim Organizations: Agosi AG, U.S . Federal Reserve, Index, Fed, European Central Bank, Hong, Japan's Nikkei Locations: Pforzheim, U.S, Europe, Hong Kong
Market veteran Ed Yardeni believes we are already in a new bull market and the S & P 500 could potentially climb nearly 20% in the next 18 months in the cycle. His target range represents a gain of between 6.5% and 19.9% from the S & P 500's Friday close of 4,505.42. "I've been thinking for quite some time that we're in a recession, but I argued that it's a rolling recession, not an economy-wide recession. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 Yardeni praised the U.S. central bank for bringing down inflation effectively. The S & P 500 has jumped more than 17% this year after scoring its best first half since 2019.
Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, meltdowns Organizations: Yardeni Research, Federal Reserve, Street, Deutsche Bank, Wall Street, CNBC Locations: U.S
Overall, funds' net short dollar position against a range of currencies was worth some $13.17 billion, down slightly from $13.58 billion the week before. It is still a substantial overall bet on the dollar falling, however, and marks the 36th week in a row funds have been net short. It is comprised of a near $10 billion aggregate bet versus G10 currencies and $3.5 billion versus emerging currencies, namely the peso and real. Funds extended their net long sterling position by around 5,000 contracts to over 58,000, the biggest net long since 2007. That's a $4.7 billion bet on a stronger pound centering on sticky UK inflation versus U.S. disinflation.
Persons: JP, Sterling, Jamie McGeever, Himani Sarkar Organizations: Futures, Federal Reserve, HSBC, U.S, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, U.S, That's
Data for May was revised to show import prices declining 0.4% instead of the previously reported 0.6%. Though consumer inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, the pace of increase has slowed sharply since peaking in June 2022, giving consumers some relief. INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ANCHOREDThough the survey's inflation expectations increased this month, that was probably because most consumers were interviewed before the release of June's consumer price index report. "Import prices are subtracting from the pernicious trend of the goods inflation Americans have been paying." There were decreases in the cost of nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials as well as food, which canceled out rises in prices for capital goods, consumer goods and motor vehicles.
Persons: Jeffrey Roach, Joanne Hsu, Shannon Seery, Christopher Rupkey, Lucia Mutikani, Christina Fincher, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, LPL Financial, Reuters, University of Michigan, University of Michigan's, Consumers, Treasury, Labor, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Charlotte , North Carolina, Wells, New York, United States, China
Interest rate futures showed markets have fully priced in another rate hike from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) later this month, but expectations of any further increases have faded. The softer dollar helped gold prices advance to near one-month highs, while oil prices hovered above $80 a barrel. The MSCI All Country stock index (.MIWD00000PUS) was up 0.5% at 691 points, hitting a new high for the year. It is up 13.5% so far in 2023, though still not wiping out all of the near 20% loss in 2022. Brent crude futures rose 0.2% to $80.27 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were slightly firmer at $75.80.
Persons: Eren Osman, Arbuthnot Latham, Osman, Stocks, Premier Li Qiang, Bonds, Huw Jones, Stella Qiu, Lincoln, Kim Coghill, William Maclean, Chizu Organizations: PPI, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Federal, Market, Arbuthnot Latham & Co, Japan's Nikkei, Premier, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Asia, Europe, U.S, CHINA, China, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong
Morning Bid: Markets bet July 2023 is 'peak Fed'
  + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanSurprise news of a 2%-plus print on U.S. headline inflation rate for June has world markets betting the peak of the Federal Reserve's interest rate campaign will now be this month. Either way, the latest inflation cheer means U.S. rate futures have wiped out bets of another Fed rate hike after a final quarter-point move to 5.25-5.50% at July 26's meeting. Although they see peak rates held there to year-end, futures now price as much as a full percentage point of cuts by this time in 2024. The VIX "fear index" (.VIX) fell back below 14 to its lowest of the month so far. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Mike Dolan, That's, Christopher Waller, Mary Daly, Joe Biden, Christine Lagarde, Toby Chopra Organizations: Fed, Nasdaq, PepsiCo, Delta Airlines, Bank of, Swiss, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Nordic, European Central Bank, . Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Beijing, Jackson, Fastenal, Helsinki, Brussels, Japan
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