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☆ Landlords pumped billions into apartment buildings during the pandemic. That bet could now go horribly wrong.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( Daniel Geiger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Big money investors pumped billions into buying up apartment buildings in the pandemic era. But fault lines have emerged for investors who paid top dollar for assets that depended on substantial rent increases and persistent low interest rates to achieve profitability. In those years, investors purchased $355.5 billion and $299.2 billion worth of apartment buildings, according to MSCI — unprecedented sums that far surpassed the previous $194 billion record of multifamily sales in 2019. "It's early, but it's going to become a bigger story, especially if interest rates stay high and lending standards are tight," said Alan Todd, the head of commercial-mortgage-backed-securities strategy at BofA Global Research. As these short-term debts come due, they will be difficult to swap with commensurately sized loans today, because of the falling values, higher interest rates, and lender caution.

☆ Goldman Sachs says these are its top picks heading into quarterly earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Earnings season is off and running and Goldman Sachs has named a host of stocks to buy ahead of the companies' quarterly reports. CNBC Pro combed through Goldman Sachs research to find stocks to own as first-quarter earnings kick off. They include Tesla, Boeing, CBRE , T-Mobile and Logitech. CBRE Group Goldman is standing by its buy rating on the real estate investment firm, even as lending standards tighten following the recent bank crisis. T-Mobile The wireless provider is Goldman's favorite growth stock, and favorite pick overall, the firm said in a recent earnings preview note to clients.

Wells Fargo executives detailed the bank's exposure to CRE at length during a conference call with analysts. Deposits at Wells Fargo fell 2% to $1.36 trillion at the end of March, compared with $1.38 trillion at the end of last year. "Both Wells Fargo and JP Morgan delivered very, very solid results, blowing past the expected earnings. Reuters GraphicsAverage loans in the bank's commercial banking division rose 15%, while commercial loans rose roughly 7% from a year earlier. Wells Fargo is also still working to contain the fallout from a scandal over its sales practices that led to hefty fines and an asset cap imposed by the Fed.

☆ The fallout from empty offices is coming. Here's where investors could see the pain
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

As concerns about regional banks roiled markets, investors weighed another threat: commercial real estate. Also, layered on top of the property value pressure, are the tightening credit conditions brought on by the recent turmoil in the banking sector. There is no doubt this scenario is a toxic mix for the capital-intensive real estate industry. At the moment, many experts say the real estate market isn't causing trouble for banks, but fears about the financial system are likely worsening conditions in real estate because liquidity is being reduced. The biggest concern is seeing how many other companies join Brookfield , Blackstone and Pimco in handing back the keys on office properties, Clancy said.

"Weakness continues to develop in commercial real estate office," Wells Fargo Chief Executive Charlie Scharf said on a call with analysts. Stress in the commercial real estate sector could have broad implications for banks and the economy, as losses emanating there can tighten credit availability and exacerbate a downturn. More than $1.4 trillion in U.S. CRE loans will mature by 2027, with some $270 billion coming due this year, according to real estate data provider Trepp. As the epicenter for the technology industry downturn, California's CRE market has been hit hard. Citigroup and Wells Fargo declined to comment for this article.

☆ Fears mount that Europe's commercial real estate sector could be the next to blow
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Investors are questioning the health of the commercial real estate sector following a string of recent banking crises. Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty ImagesConcerns are mounting around the health of Europe's commercial real estate market, with some investors questioning whether it could be the next sector to blow following last month's banking crisis. Analysts at Citi now see European real estate stocks falling by 20%-40% between 2023 and 2024 as the impact of higher interest plays out. In a worst-case scenario, the higher-risk commercial real estate sector could plummet 50% by next year, the bank said. Pere Vinolas Serra, chief executive of Spanish real estate company Inmobiliaria Colonial and chairman of the European Public Real Estate Association (EPRA), said the situation in Europe looks paradoxically strong.

☆ Landlords who bought thousands of apartments are facing a reckoning
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Daniel Geiger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Investors showed outsize interest in apartment buildings during the pandemic. Rents and occupancy rates were rising, interest rates remained relatively low, and rental-property prices were climbing with no sign of letting up during a surge in housing demand. Laguna Point did not respond to a request for comment. Marc McDevitt, a senior managing director at Cred iQ, said it was possible Laguna Point had lost some, or even all, of its investment in the deal. While offices have been going through a paradigmatic shift as more workers do their jobs remotely, apartment buildings have experienced robust demand from tenants.

☆ Goldman Sachs downgrades this commercial real estate stock on difficult macro environment
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Goldman Sachs thinks commercial real estate giant Cushman & Wakefield will have a tough time navigating the current macro environment. Goldman added that Cushman's interest expenses have also risen considerably as benchmark rates continue to climb. CWK YTD mountain Shares of Cushman and Wakefield have been under immense pressure so far this year, and Goldman Sachs doesn't expect a company recovery this year. Shares of Cushman are down nearly 21% in 2023, as the broader commercial real estate sector faces turmoil. Meanwhile, a tightening of liquidity will continue to pose a challenge to real estate investors, Goldman estimates, which will "more than offsets any tailwinds from potentially lower rates."

☆ US stocks face a 50% crash, a 'crypto apocalypse' is coming, and the economy is entering a 'doom loop.' Here are the 10 wildest predictions over the past quarter.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

From stocks to commercial real estate, several parts of financial markets are on shaky ground. Here are the 10 wildest predictions about asset prices and the economy over the past quarter. Grantham said the prices of stocks, bonds, real estate, fine art, and other investments surged to unsustainable highs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Crypto: an 'apocalypse' is coming for digital assets"Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini isn't hopeful about the crypto industry. "I think it will spread into commercial real estate as banks become more reluctant to lend," Cooperman said.

☆ Here's why the Fed cutting interest rates is a double-edged sword for commercial real estate
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Commercial real estate is widely seen as the next shoe to drop after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. A wave of CRE debt is coming due and will need to be refinanced at higher interest rates at a time when occupancy rates are low. Interest rate cuts from the Fed would provide some relief to the CRE space, but not if they come alongside a recession, according to Bank of America. Commercial real estate has been in a world of pain ever since the COVID-19 pandemic started. But could interest rate cuts from the Fed — which the market expects will happen in the second half of this year — help alleviate ongoing concerns in the commercial real estate market?

☆ Commercial real estate loan defaults will rise in a credit crunch but a crisis like 2008 is unlikely, says UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Defaults on commercial real estate loans will likely rise from a potential credit crunch, says UBS Global Wealth Management. Data from Trepp shows the delinquency rate for loans in the office market climbed in March. After the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month, investors searching for signs of further stress in the banking system are seeing problems brewing in the commercial real estate market. Roughly $5.4 trillion in CRE debt is outstanding, with $1.2 trillion set to mature this year and in 2024, said UBS, noting the figures exclude multifamily commercial real estate. The office segment among commercial real estatement sectors only represents about 15% of the total value of commercial real estate, she said.

☆ FDIC announces sale process of former Signature Bank loan portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

April 3 (Reuters) - The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) on Monday announced the marketing process for the about $60 billion loan portfolio retained in receivership following the failure of Signature Bank. The FDIC expects to begin its marketing of the retained loan portfolio of the former Signature Bank later this summer, it said in a statement. The portfolio is comprised primarily of commercial real estate (CRE) loans, commercial loans and a smaller pool of single–family residential loans. Last week, Reuters reported that FDIC has retained advisers to sell the securities portfolios that the new owners of failed Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank rejected. The FDIC said on Monday it has retained Newmark & Company Real Estate Inc as an advisor on the sale.

☆ Signs of pain as easy cash era ends are growing
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, March 30 (Reuters) - The easy-cash era is over and markets are feeling the pinch from the sharpest jump in interest rate in decades. Since late 2021, big developed economies including the United States, euro area and Australia have raised rates by almost 3,300 basis points collectively. Japanese, European and U.S. banks stocks, while off recent lows, are still well below levels seen just before SVB's collapse. Reuters Graphics2/ DARLINGS NO MOREAs the SVB collapse showed, stress in the tech sector can quickly ripple out across the economy. Reuters Graphics4/ CRYPTO WINTERHaving benefited from an influx of cash during the easy-money era, cryptocurrencies have felt pain as rates rose last year, then gained on recent signs that tightening could end soon.

☆ Europe's banks in 'better place' than U.S. in terms of commercial property risk - JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, March 28 (Reuters) - Europe's banks face less threat from some of the problems now showing in the commercial real estate markets than their U.S. counterparts, analysts at JPMorgan have said. That would accelerate a property sector downturn, aggravating underlying health concerns as it did during the 2007-08 global financial crisis and a number of other major crashes. Analysts at Capital Economist estimated this week that U.S. commercial property prices will slump a further 18-20%, having already fallen 4-5% from their peak in mid-2022. Lending to commercial property accounts for about 40% of all loans by smaller U.S. banks, defined by the Federal Reserve as being those outside the 25 largest by asset size. These banks account for about 70% of outstanding loans to the commercial real estate sector.

☆ The stock market rally is over as commercial real estate risks begin to compound, JPMorgan's chief market strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The stock market rally is nearing its end as risks related to commercial real estate begin to rise, according to JPMorgan. The bank believes the highs for the stock market have been made in 2023, with further downside ahead. "Commercial real estate stresses appear to be compounding, amplified by banking shocks that could complicate their debt roll," Kolanovic warned. Kolanovic isn't the only one on Wall Street that's concerned about the sky-high debt pile that's coming due for commercial real estate. "Commercial real estate [is] widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," Bank of America's Michael Hartnett said last week.

☆ JPMorgan says commercial real estate decline is intensifying. Beware these exposed stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

As commercial real estate comes under even greater pressure, investors should steer clear of these stocks that are overexposed to the sector, JPMorgan said. Commercial real estate is already facing more challenges this year than other parts of real estate, such as retail or lodging. Last year, office real estate dropped 37.6%, also on a total return basis. Given this, JPMorgan screened for a basket of stocks with direct and indirect exposure to U.S. commercial real estate. JPMorgan also identified pharmacy store chains Walgreens Boots Alliance and CVS Health as having direct exposure to any slowdown in commercial real estate.

☆ A credit crunch could worsen the bank turmoil and commercial real estate could be next domino to fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Odds are, commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop for the banking sector after this month's unrest. "Commercial real estate [is] widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," BofA's Michael Hartnett said. Regional banks have enormous exposure to commercial real estate loans. But this time around, it is commercial rather than residential real estate that may be in trouble. Are you worried about the impact of commercial real estate on the banking sector and the economy?

☆ Premarket stocks: Commercial real estate is in trouble. Why you should be paying attention
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Economists are growing concerned about the $20 trillion commercial real estate (CRE) industry. After decades of thriving growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. Before the Bell spoke with Xander Snyder, senior commercial real estate economist at First American, to find out. Before the Bell: Why should retail investors pay attention to what’s going on in commercial real estate right now? So the health of the market has an impact on the larger economy, even if you’re not interested in commercial real estate for commercial real estate’s sake.

☆ Commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop for regional banks and the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Commercial real estate is probably the next pain point for regional banks and the stock market, according to BofA. The bank noted that US regional banks account for 68% of all commercial real estate loans. The weakness in commercial real estate is evidenced in current market prices for stocks and debt tied to the sector. This is a perfect storm for regional banks because they have so much exposure to commercial real estate loans. According to Bank of America, US regional banks account for 68% of commercial real estate loans, much more than their mega-cap banking peers.

☆ BofA's Hartnett sees commercial real estate as the 'next shoe to drop'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Commercial real estate could be the next danger spot in the wobbly U.S. financial sector, according to Bank of America. One warning sign: Spreads for commercial mortgage-backed securities are at their widest compared with Treasurys since May 2020, said investment strategist Michael Hartnett. "CRE widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," Hartnett wrote in his weekly "Flow Show" report of where market money is gravitating. The last Federal Reserve Senior Loan Office Opinion Survey , in January, noted "significant net shares of banks" that reported tightening lending standards for commercial loans. The Bank Term Funding Program reported $53.7 billion in loans over the past month , while the discount window saw $110.2 billion.

Both Goldman and Fitch did not specify which small lenders were most vulnerable. The total exposure of the U.S. banking system to CRE loans was $2.5 trillion at the end of December, Fitch said. HEADWINDSThe CRE market faces headwinds that could hobble small banks. Rising interest rates have also depressed demand for CRE loans, while weighing on real estate investment trusts (REITs). Goldman's Viswanathan cited several indicators that reflected a weakening market for office real estate: declining occupancy rates, falling appraisal values and rising defaults.

☆ Top banking analyst Mike Mayo sees this regional bank gaining deposits from the crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

It's "business as usual" for PNC , according to Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo, who said after an onsite meeting with PNC's CEO that the Pittsburgh-based regional bank is well-positioned for gains. PNC should benefit from a flight to quality," Mayo wrote in a Monday client note. Wells Fargo also believes that funding is strong for PNC, and expects it to see increases in both consumer and commercial deposits. Pricing on loan and deposits may ease incrementally, Mayo adds, which would further benefit PNC. "Before recent events, PNC indicated the move from non-interest bearing to interest bearing deposits had accelerated," Mayo continued.

☆ The growing number of distressed office buildings reflects a recognition by owners and lenders that the robust return to office they had hoped for isn't likely to materialize
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Office owners like Brookfield, RXR, and Related are in the process of defaulting on office loans. Some of real estate's biggest names have defaulted on their office debt in recent weeks. The delinquency rate for office loans is only 1.83% now, according to Trepp, a firm that researches real-estate debt. Loans come dueOver this year and next year, 24% of commercial real estate loans will be coming due, many of them office loans, per Hendry. Office buildings, from the newest and shiniest Class A towers to the older and less-sexy Class B buildings, were a pretty safe investment, as long as they were in the right locales.

☆ French PM: more confident about France's energy supplies for the coming weeks
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

PARIS, Jan 3 (Reuters) - French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne said on Tuesday that she was more confident over the situation of French energy supplies for the next few weeks, citing lower consumption and an increase in nuclear output capacity. Borne confirmed plans to help French bakers cope with rising energy bills, allowing them to spread the payment of their taxes over time and possibly "the payment of their energy bills for the first months of the year". "I am more confident over the coming weeks," Borne told Franceinfo radio, when asked about energy supplies, adding that she had discussed the situation with energy company EDF (EDF.PA). Last week, the head of the country's CRE energy watchdog, Emmanuelle Wargon said there was no risk to power supplies until at least mid-January as French households and businesses had heeded calls to cut their energy consumption. French grid operator RTE said last week electricity consumption dropped by 8.7% over the past four weeks compared to an average of the same period in 2014-2019.

☆ France's energy watchdog sees no risk to power supplies until at least mid-January
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

PARIS, Dec 28 (Reuters) - There is no risk to power supplies in France until at least mid-January, the head of the country's CRE energy watchdog, Emmanuelle Wargon, said on Wednesday. The government has set a target of cutting France's energy consumption by 10% by 2024 from 2019 levels, as part of a wide ranging plan that includes turning off lights and lowering thermostats to avoid power and gas cuts over the winter amid the war in Ukraine. "We remain attentive and vigilant" in case temperatures drop, she said, adding that "until mid-January, we know we won't have problems". Wargon also said that France's nuclear fleet, currently hit by maintenance and repair works, is expected to reach a production capacity of 45 gigawatts (GW) in January. Reporting by Dominique Vidalon; Writing by Ingrid Melander; Editing by Louise Heavens, Kirsten DonovanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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