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"In contrast, current valuation extremes imply potential downside risk for the S&P 500 on the order of 50-70% over the completion of this cycle." JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4,200, while more extreme forecasts include Jeremy Grantham's estimate in the low 3,000s. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.
Persons: , Jonathan Golub, Count John Hussman, Hussman, Hussman's, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Jeremy Grantham's Organizations: Service, UBS, Business, Hussman Investment Trust, New York Stock Exchange, Investor Intelligence
Although Micron (MU) has not had Nvidia's meteoric performance, it has been a stellar stock, doubling in the last year and up over 50% in 2024. The AI boom has buoyed memory chips higher as these chips have become a more important component for artificial intelligence accelerators. However, the possibly unrealistic bar now being set for AI earnings reports saw Micron drop more than 7% on high volume. I want to express a short-term bearish view in Micron as I believe further profit-taking will occur in the third quarter. Micron is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world, specializing in high-bandwidth memory and storage chips.
Persons: Long Organizations: Micron, Nvidia, JPMorgan, MU, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: CapEx
The economic outlook also looks precarious, given stubborn inflation and slowing growth. AdvertisementThe stock market looks poised for a correction, and a dicey economic and monetary policy environment could cause equities to dive 10%, according to Stifel's chief stock strategist Barry Bannister. Economic growth has been slowing, with GDP expanding by 1.4% in the first quarter, according to the latest revision. Sticky inflation also weighs on the outlook for Fed rate cuts, which poses more bad news for stocks. AdvertisementOther investing veterans have warned stocks are due for a comedown amid lofty valuations.
Persons: Stifel's Barry Bannister, , Barry Bannister, Bannister —, Bannister, that's, John Hussman Organizations: Service, Yahoo Finance, Fed
Yet crypto's Fairshake PAC also got into the race and spent $2 million to air an ad critical of Bowman. But it's not just money that the crypto industry plans to deploy this fall. Jordan Vonderhaar | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe effort is also meant to showcase a matured crypto industry. Meanwhile, Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester told "Meet the Press" in 2022 that crypto did not "pass the smell test." Tester told reporters that he is keeping an open mind about several crypto bills before the Senate.
Persons: Jakub Porzycki, Jamaal Bowman, George Latimer, Israel, crypto's, Bowman, Fairshake, glided, John Curtis, Jamal Bowman, Evelyn Hockstein, Andreesen Horowitz, Coinbase, it's, Crypto, Brad Garlinghouse, Garlinghouse, Jordan Vonderhaar, Sam Bankman, Faryar Shirzad, Goldman Sachs, Sherrod Brown, Republican Bernie Moreno, Tim Sheehy, Sen, Jon Tester, Tester, Brett Kavanaugh, Kavanaugh, Mike Segar Organizations: Nurphoto, Getty Images WASHINGTON, Fairshake PAC, Westchester, Republicans, Democrats, Republican, United States Capitol, Reuters, CNBC, Bloomberg, Getty, White, Senate, Democratic, SEC, U.S Locations: Westchester County, Bowman's, Washington, Fairshake, Austin , Texas, Ohio, Montana
Bitcoin is testing a key level once again after the cryptocurrency fell below $60,000 this week for the first time since May 3. "There's key support at $57,500, the 200-day average, down to $56,500, the May low — and a downside breach would be damaging." It is currently suffering from a lack of near-term catalysts, low demand for bitcoin exchange-traded funds and miners' selling of bitcoin. BTC.CM= 6M mountain Bitcoin this year If bitcoin fails to hold $57,000, Wald added, $49,000 would become its next key downside level. Until then, "I always side with trend, meaning I'd assume the rising 200-day average holds.
Persons: Oppenheimer, Ari Wald, Bitcoin, bitcoin, Wald, David Keller, bitcoin's, Keller, Tom Fitzpatrick, R.J, O'Brien Organizations: Metrics, NASDAQ
SLB (SLB) has been on our radar for some time and its recent underperformance produces an interesting opportunity to gain long exposure with substantial upside potential. That's nearly a 35% discount to the average S & P 500 stock, implying that the technical upside target is well within its historical valuation range. With low volatility, options prices on SLB are extremely inexpensive and would benefit from a simple strategy such as buying a call option. Additionally, we are only risking 7.7% of the stock's price to gain unlimited upside exposure. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: SLB, That's Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBranch: Remain bearish on this bifurcated market, despite the recent rallyGreg Branch, Founder and Managing Partner of Branch Global Capital Advisors, discusses the markets, Fed rate cuts, and investing in names outside of mega-cap tech.
Persons: Greg Branch Organizations: Branch Global Capital Advisors
There may not be much upside left this year in the S & P 500, at least according to the paid seers on Wall Street. The S & P 500 is up 15% so far in 2024, while the Nasdaq has added 18%. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 In fact, the S & P 500 is anticipated to stall even with a flurry of strategists recently upping their targets. Similarly, Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel anticipates the S & P 500 could end the year at 6,000 , the highest forecast in CNBC's survey. By year end, Lakos-Bujas anticipates the S & P 500 will fall to 4,200, or a more than 20% plunge.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David J, Kostin, Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel, buybacks, Russell, Piper Sandler, Dubravko Lakos, Bujas Organizations: Nasdaq, CNBC PRO, Deutsche Bank, Tech, Microsoft, Dow Jones, Nvidia
Nvidia (NVDA) is finally showing signs of profit-taking, suggesting that the entire technology sector might be ready for a breather. This could present many bearish trading setups in various stocks because of the influence Nvidia has had leading the AI bubble. For now, let's focus on making a bearish trade in the Invesco QQQ Trust , an ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 index. The Trade The trade structure I have chosen here is called a Bear Call Spread also known as a Call Credit Spread. As long as QQQ stays below $483 in the next 17 days, this trade will return a 38% ROI on the money risked.
Persons: Nishant Pant Organizations: Nvidia, Trust, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Gold drifts lower as traders await U.S. inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices eased on Tuesday, while investors looked toward key U.S. inflation data due later this week that could throw some light on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut stance. Gold prices eased on Tuesday, while investors looked toward key U.S. inflation data due later this week that could throw some light on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut stance. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,327.52 per ounce as of 0339 GMT. "Technical factors in the short-term are not so positive for gold. Other Fed officials speaking this week include Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman along with Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.
Persons: Kelvin Wong, Bullion, Wong, Mary Daly, Lisa Cook, Michelle Bowman, Tom Barkin Organizations: Asia Pacific, U.S, San Francisco Fed Bank, Richmond Fed Locations: OANDA, U.S
Stock futures were flat in overnight trading Sunday as the market is set to enter the last week of June and 2024's first half near record highs. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 futures were both little changed. The S&P 500 scored an intraday record of 5,505.53 on Thursday and posted another winning week. The equity benchmark gained 0.6% last week, notching its eighth positive week in nine. The S&P 500 has advanced almost 15% this year after notching 31 record closes.
Persons: Katie Nixon Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Microsoft, U.S ., Trust Wealth Management, Federal, FedEx, Micron, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Nike
For example, a call that the S & P 500 would rise 100 points on a positive consumer price index print came true last year. That's true so far, with the S & P 500 jumping 4.8% in May after finishing April down 4.2%. As equities struggled, (the S & P 500 fell almost 20% in 2022), Lee felt like the risk of inflation was being mispriced. Because of that, he foresaw a rebound in 2023, a year that sent the S & P 500 more than 24% higher. "There was a pretty widely-held view that the Fed had to crash the economy in order to contain inflation," Lee said.
Persons: Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Lee, it's, that's, Lee doesn't, Russell, hiccups, Salomon Smith Barney Organizations: Fundstrat, CNBC Pro, Wharton School, selloff, Apple, Netflix, Nasdaq, JPMorgan
Hertz Global — Shares rose more than 10% after the car rental giant upsized a bond offering to $1 billion . Asana — The stock popped 10.5% after the software firm announced a share buyback plan that would cost $150 million. Nvidia — The chipmaker dropped another 1% following a 3.5% decline in the previous session. Gilead Sciences — Shares of the pharmaceutical company popped around 2%, adding to an 8.5% rally from the previous session. Palo Alto Networks — Shares rose 2.4% after D.A.
Persons: Gilead, LendingTree, Davidson, D.A, Boyd Gaming, Boyd, , Alex Harring, Yun Li, Lisa Kailai Han, Hakyung Kim, Michelle Fox Organizations: Therapeutics, U.S . Food, Drug Administration, FDA, Hertz, Nvidia, Gilead Sciences, Bloomberg, Palo Alto, D.A, Penn Entertainment, Boyd, Reuters, Boeing Locations: U.S, Gilead, Palo, cybersecurity, Thursday's
Nvidia just formed a bearish technical pattern that is signaling a reversal ahead. The red-hot chipmaker dropped 3.5% on Thursday after temporarily unseating Microsoft as the most valuable public company in the U.S. Thursday's decline marked a "bearish engulfing" pattern that often signals that the prior upward momentum is waning. Others believe the Nvidia bearish engulfing pattern, while ominous, isn't significant enough yet. The confirmation of a bearish engulfing pattern sometimes depends on the size of the candles. "The reversal of the shares was 11 cents away from clearly registering a bearish engulfing pattern.
Persons: Mark Newton, Mike O'Rourke Organizations: Nvidia, Microsoft, NVIDIA Locations: U.S
Some concerning candle patterns for leading technology names have caused me to focus on potential downside targets for the S & P 500 . To be clear, this is a short-term pattern, and is really just intended to inform our thinking for the next couple trading sessions. The most important level to watch is S & P 5,200, which would represent about a 5% pullback from the recent market peak. A move below S & P 5200 would cause me to revisit long positions and start to raise cash due to an elevated risk of a correction. If and when the S & P pushes below 4950, I would be positioned way more defensively, waiting for some signs of accumulation to emerge.
Persons: I've, David Keller Organizations: Nvidia Corp, Semiconductor, Nvidia, Micron Technology, CMT, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
There has been a fair amount of nervous chatter lately about the state of the stock market. As of Thursday's close, the S & P 500 was up about 15% in 2024, while the Nasdaq Composite was just shy of 19%. Companies like Microsoft , Cisco Systems and Intel were among the biggest gainers in the S & P 500. Further, the S & P 500 Equal Weighted Index , with a roughly 4% gain in 2024, is far underperforming its capital-weighted counterpart. .SPXEW .SPX YTD line The S & P 500 Equal Weighted Index vs. the S & P 500 in 2024 Having said that, in years past, these types of divergences would worry me to the point of distraction.
Persons: it's, Bubbles, It's, rebalancing, Ron Insana Organizations: Nasdaq, Microsoft, Cisco Systems, Intel, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, CNBC Locations: U.S
Read previewAsia's version of Chipotle — a Mexican fast-casual chain called Guzman y Gomez — just went public in Australia. The initial public offering brings GYG's valuation to 2.2 billion Australian dollars, or $1.47 billion. The US-based Mexican fast food chain is valued at $94 billion and posted a revenue of nearly $10 billion last year. Chipotle owns and operates all of its restaurants, unlike GYG, which follows a franchise model. They are only available to institutional investors, eligible employees and franchise holders, and retail clients of brokerages who have been allocated GYG shares, the company said in a pre-IPO release.
Persons: , Guzman y Gomez —, GYG, Steven Marks, Marks, Chipotle, Michael Hutchens, didn't, Hutchens, brokerages Organizations: Service, Australian Securities Exchange, Business, Morningstar, Growth Partners, Barrenjoey, Cooper Investors, Hyperion Asset Management, Firetrail Investments, QVG Locations: Mexican, Australia, Sydney, Singapore, Japan, North America, Europe
After peaking back in July of 2021, the stock has declined nearly 80% and has spent the last 12 months forming a bottoming formation and has stabilized its decline. The question is, when is the stock potentially ready to breakout higher? Now if we examine the fundamentals, the business has started to look more compelling over the past couple of quarters. The trade Based on the implied volatility, options are not particularly cheap or expensive, but the skew benefits selling a put credit spread. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: PYPL Organizations: PayPal Locations: PYPL
AdvertisementThe stock market is in for a correction, as a trio of unfavorable factors will weigh on equity prices, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research. Tech stocks, which have dominated the market in recent years, are trading at a 68% premium. Stocks could see their first "crack in the ice" in the tech sector, he added, pointing to lofty valuations among mega-cap tech stocks. AdvertisementOther forecasters have warned of limited upside to the market as stocks — particularly tech stocks — continue to climb higher. According to one valuation metric, the stock market looks to be the most overvalued since 1929, which could pave the way to a steep correction, elite investor John Hussman warned.
Persons: Sam Stovall, , Stovall, Stocks, John Hussman Organizations: Service, CFRA Research, Wall, Treasury, Tech, CNBC
The stock price is stalling near resistance around the $128 price level and I have a bearish options trade to capitalize on it. To further confirm a bearish bias on EXPE, I am using 3 technical indicators in the chart below: RSI (Relative Strength Index): As a stock climbs up, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) gauges the strength of the trend. DMI (Directional Movement Index): When the DI+ (green line) is above DI- (red line), the stock is in an uptrend. The Trade Setup: A Bear Put Spread I am using a “bear put spread” as my trade structure here. Most trading platforms will offer a bear put spread (or long put spread) as a trade type and automatically construct the trade for you.
Persons: EXPE, ADX, Nishant Pant Organizations: Expedia, RSI
Hardware is Wall Street's new favorite bet
  + stars: | 2024-06-17 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. In today's big story, we're looking at the Apple-Google partnership that shows why hardware has become Wall Street's new favorite bet . The big storyHardware is hotGetty Images; Chelsea Jia Feng/BISoftware may still eat the world, but only with the help of some serious hardware. But generative AI has put a considerable spotlight on a less sexy part of tech: hardware. That's playing out in the stock market, where hardware tech stocks have outperformed software tech stocks by 30 percentage points this year , writes BI's Matthew Fox.
Persons: , Chelsea Jia Feng, Marc Andreessen's, Hugh Langley, That's, BI's Matthew Fox, it's, Steve Schwarzman, Jon Gray, Brian Ach, Tyler Le, Andy Sieg, Merrill Wealth, Dan Sundheim, Chris Tuite, Trump, Elon Musk, hasn't, Jimmy Simpson, they're, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Elon, Apple, Business, Apple Intelligence, OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, Street, Nvidia, Broadcom, Blackstone, Merrill, D1 Capital, YouTube, Netflix, BI, Cannes Lions, advertising's Locations: That's, New York, London
Andy Sieg shocked the finance industry last spring when he left Merrill Wealth Management. AdvertisementBank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala recently argued that Citi should consider selling the wealth business if it cannot improve its profitability. AdvertisementWhile Sieg has told Citi managing directors to manage up less, a former Merrill executive who worked under him said Sieg was adept at it. Former Citi managing directorAdvertisementVahid's position will be taken by Kris Bitterly, the global head of investment products, in September. Mirroring tactics that supercharged Merrill, Sieg has changed Citi Wealth's compensation scheme to prioritize asset gathering, to the consternation of several employees.
Persons: Andy Sieg, Kevin Crain, Sieg, Crain, Jane Fraser, Fraser, Morgan Stanley, Merrill, Smith Barney, Ebrahim Poonawala, Wells, Mike Mayo, Brian Moynihan, Alex Wong, Moynihan, Fraser isn't, Mayo, anoint, Jamie Dimon, Jennifer Piepszak, Marianne Lake, Viswas Raghavan, Jane, He'd, George H, Bush, Bill Schreyer, Merrill Lynch, Dave Komansky, David Komansky, YOSHIKAZU TSUNO, Phil, Doug, Lord Abbett, David Poole, Citi's, there's, That's, Poole, Glenn Schorr, Jim O'Donnell, O'Donnell, Sieg's, Andy Sieg's, Naz Vahid, David Bailin, Bailin, Naz, Phil Waxelbaum, Vahid, Kris, Don Plaus, Keith Glenfield, Dawn Nordberg, Edward Jones, They're, Ernst & Young, he's Organizations: Merrill Wealth Management, Business, Citi, Bank of America, Morgan, BI, Merrill, Bank, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Harvard, Penn State, JPMorgan Advisors, United Arab, Citi . Citi, Work, Citi lifer, Former Citi, North, Citi Alliance, Citi Wealth, Bloomberg, Ernst &, Citizens Bank Locations: Sieg, Wells Fargo, Merrill, Bellefonte , Pennsylvania, Poole, Singapore, United Arab Emirates, Mexico, London, Aventura , Florida, Asia, Manhattan, North America
So that's what the bank did, listing 10 signals that they found to be most reliable, as well as the best investing approach for a market peak. The index has reached 110 within the six months preceding every market peak since July 1990, and in January 2024, it reached 111. ValuationElevated stock valuations are also telling of a market peak, but Bank of America's indicators relating to P/E ratios aren't currently triggered. A third macroeconomic indicator, Bank of America's Credit Stress Indicator (CSI), is not triggered. It often drops below 0.25 within six months of a market peak, but sits at 0.39.
Persons: , Savita Subramanian, America quantifies Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, Conference, Bank of America Investor, Bank, America, The Conference Board, SSI, Wall Street, of America's, CSI Locations: today's
Dollar firm as euro wallows; yuan brushes aside China data
  + stars: | 2024-06-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar was firm on Monday as the euro hovered near a more than one-month low amid continued concerns about the political outlook in Europe. The yuan held close to a multi-month low after China released a slew of economic data that pointed to an uneven recovery in the world's second-largest economy. A Reuters poll published last week showed 63 of 65 economists thought a first cut would not come until Aug. 1. Elsewhere, the yuan was mostly flat at 7.2550 per dollar after domestic data showed a mixed economic picture in China. China's central bank left a key policy rate unchanged as expected on Monday as the weak yuan continued to hamper policy easing.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron's, Matt Simpson, Neel Kashkari, Index's Simpson, Sterling, Kazuo Ueda, bitcoin Organizations: U.S, Gazprom, European Central Bank, Reuters, Index, . Minneapolis Federal, Bank of England, Bank of Japan Locations: Poland, Bulgaria, Europe, China, U.S
Here's what five forecasters have to say about the latest rally — and why they think the stock market is headed for a fall. In 2009, he wrote a book predicting a stock market crash and ensuing economic depression, which he said could last for 10 years or more. The research firm is predicting the S&P 500 could see a steep correction following a rally to 6,500. Yet, that could end up being an excellent opportunity for investors who are diversified in other areas of the market, Bernstein said. AdvertisementTypically, there are eight warning signs of a market bubble forming, and six of them have already flashed, the bank said.
Persons: Stocks, , haven't, Harry Dent Stocks, Harry Dent, Dent, John Higgins, Higgins, John Hussman, Hussman, Richard Bernstein, Bernstein Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Apple, Nvidia, Fox Business Network, Stocks, Capital Economics, John Hussman Elite, UBS
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