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☆ Businesses see lower odds U.S. in or entering recession, NABE says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] People line up outside a Kentucky Career Center hoping to find assistance with their unemployment claim in Frankfort, Kentucky, U.S. June 18, 2020. Approximately 53% of those polled by the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) said they had a more than-even expectation the United States would enter a recession over the next 12 months, while 3% indicated they thought the country was already in one. In the NABE's previous poll released in October, 64% of respondents indicated that the U.S. economy was either already in a recession or had a more-than-even likelihood of entering one in the next 12 months. A total of 60 NABE members who work for private-sector firms or industry trade associations responded to the latest survey, which was conducted from Jan. 4-11. Inflation, based on the Fed's preferred measure, is still nearly three times the central bank's 2% target.

☆ UK consumer mood slides back to near 50-year low - GfK
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Suban Abdulla | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Market research firm GfK said its measure of confidence declined 3 points to -45, the third lowest reading since records started in 1974. Energy bills and food prices in have escalated rapidly in recent months, eating away at households' disposable incomes. Food prices jumped 16.8% year-on-year in December - the sharpest increase since September 1977, according to the Office for National Statistics. The cost of an average household energy bill in Britain is set to rise to 3,000 pounds ($3,697.50) a year from April. The survey of 2,000 people was conducted between Jan. 3 and Jan. 12.

☆ US stocks close mixed as Dow dives nearly 400 points on weak Goldman Sachs earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Goldman Sachs missed fourth-quarter estimates, while Morgan Stanley exceeded expectations. The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index declined nearly 22 points to -32.9, the lowest reading in nearly two years. Goldman Sachs contributed most to the market's sour sentiment, with the firm missing fourth-quarter expectations and weighing heavily on the Dow. Morgan Stanley reported better-than-expected earnings. Early Tuesday, the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Index declined nearly 22 points to -32.9, the lowest reading in nearly two years.

☆ Americans are already starting to pull back on their spending, survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Minneapolis CNN —Americans have already started to rein in their spending — and expect to pull back some more this year, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Tuesday morning. Monthly household spending growth, after hitting a series high of 9% in August, fell to 7.7% in December, according to the New York Fed’s latest household spending survey. The drop in spending activity is expected to continue through this year, the survey showed. A slightly larger share of survey respondents also noted that if they were to receive an unexpected 10% pay raise, they would put it toward paying down debt. The retail sales figures are not adjusted for inflation.

☆ U.S. consumer inflation expectations fall in January
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said the one-year inflation outlook slipped to a preliminary reading of 4.0% this month from 4.4% in December. Inflation is abating as the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes cool demand, and supply chain bottlenecks ease. With inflation subsiding, consumers' spirits are perking up. The University of Michigan's preliminary January reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 64.6, up from 59.7 in the prior month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a preliminary reading of 60.5.

☆ Asia-Pacific shares set to open higher ahead of U.S. inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Pedestrians by the retail stores at Pitt Street Mall in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, on Monday, Dec. 26, 2022. Asia-Pacific shares are set to trade higher as investors look ahead to the U.S. consumer price index, which would set the Federal Reserve's trajectory in its attempt to tackle inflation after raising rates seven times in 2022. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.7% ahead of the release of its inflation print for November. Both are higher compared to the Nikkei 225's last close at 26,175.56. Overnight on Wall Street, major stock indexes closed higher as investors continued building on the new year's early rally.

Brent crude was up $1.29, or 1.6%, at $79.80 a barrel by 1:29 p.m. EST (1829 GMT). "The gradual reopening of the Chinese economy will provide an additional and immeasurable layer of price support," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. The rally followed a drop last week of more than 8% for both oil benchmarks, their biggest weekly declines at the start of a year since 2016. As part of a "new phase" in the fight against COVID-19, China opened its borders over the weekend for the first time in three years. "The NY Fed data should be supportive for oil prices, as it suggests that inflation is peaking," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures group.

☆ NY Fed survey finds reduced near-term inflation expectations in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Meanwhile, respondents’ expectations for inflation three years from now were unchanged at 3% while projections of inflation in five years’ time stood at 2.4%, up from 2.3% in November. The decline in near-term inflation expectations comes as the Fed has been aggressively pushing forward with rate rises aimed at lowering some of the highest price pressure readings in decades. Fed officials have been confident that will succeed in part because they have viewed longer-run inflation expectations data as relatively stable compared with their 2% target. Respondents to the survey had discordant expectations about their outlooks for income and spending. But expected spending tumbled, falling from November’s 6.9% expected rise to 5.9% in December.

☆ US consumers increased their borrowing by $28 billion in November
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Minneapolis CNN —US consumers’ credit-hungry approach to spending continued in November, with borrowing rising by nearly $28 billion, according to Federal Reserve data released Monday. Revolving credit, which includes mostly credit cards, grew by 16.9%. It’s the largest jump in revolving credit seen in three months and the fifth-largest monthly increase in Fed record-keeping that goes back nearly 55 years. “It’s really revolving credit, mostly credit card debt, that’s carrying the day right now,” Rossman said. That has filtered down to historically high, if not record, interest rates for car loans, credit cards and personal loans.

☆ UK house prices post biggest quarterly drop since 2009: Halifax
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - British house prices slid again in December, capping the largest quarterly drop since the financial crisis more than 10 years ago, data from mortgage lender Halifax showed on Friday. The average house price fell 1.5% month-on-month in December, following a 2.4% fall in November and marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline, Halifax said. In quarterly terms, house prices fell 2.5% - the biggest drop since the three months to February 2009. Halifax expects house prices to drop 8% in 2023 - although Kinnaird noted that this would only mean a return to levels last seen in April 2021. House prices surged during the COVID-19 pandemic as people rushed to buy bigger homes with gardens, fuelled by temporary tax incentives.

☆ It's official: Higher mortgage rates are truly terrifying potential homebuyers
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Mortgage applications sank to a 26-year low in December, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Higher mortgage rates have weakened demand and affordability for many American households. Higher mortgage rates are also responsible for lower refinance volumes. There's a glimmer of hope: Inflationary pressures, which have partially been responsible for the surge in mortgage rates, are finally beginning to ease. "Moreover, if rates continue to decline, borrowers who purchased in the last year will have opportunities to refinance into lower rates."

☆ U.S. manufacturing sector contracts, prices decline in December-ISM
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index tumbled to 45.2, the lowest reading since May 2020, from 47.2 in November. The survey's measure of supplier deliveries fell to 45.1 from 47.2 in November. The ISM survey's measure of prices paid by manufacturers dropped to 39.4 from 43.0 in November. The ISM survey's measure of factory employment rebounded to 51.4 from 48.4 in November. According to a Reuters survey of economists, manufacturing employment likely increased by 9,000 jobs in December after rising 14,000 in November.

☆ Saudi non-oil private sector activity eases in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

DUBAI, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Growth in Saudi Arabia's non-oil business activity slowed to a three-month low in December, a survey showed on Tuesday, although higher sales and strong demand ensured firms remained confident about the outlook for the coming year. The seasonally adjusted Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 56.9 in December from 58.5 in November. However, the output subindex softened to 61 from November's 64.6 while the pace of growth in new orders also slowed. The Saudi government has estimated GDP growth of almost 9% in 2022, revised up from its earlier estimates, with the finance ministry attributing the adjustment largely to non-oil private sector activity. This made us comfortably project growth of non-oil GDP to exceed 4% in 2023."

☆ Chinese manufacturing contracts sharply as COVID infections soar
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the PMI to come in at 48.0. The data offered the first official snapshot of the manufacturing sector after China removed the world's strictest COVID restrictions in early December. Cumulative infections likely reached 18.6 million in December, UK-based health data firm Airfinity estimated. GDP expanded 3% in the first nine months of 2022, versus China's official full-year goal of around 5.5%. The official composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, declined to 42.6 from 47.1.

☆ China Dec manufacturing contracts sharply as COVID infections soar
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The data offered the first official snapshot of the manufacturing sector after China removed the world's strictest COVID restrictions in early December. Weakening external demand on the back of growing global recession fears amid rising interest rates, inflation and the war in Ukraine may further slow China's exports, hurting its massive manufacturing sector and hampering the economic recovery. The official composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, declined to 42.6 from 47.1. The official manufacturing PMI largely focuses on big and state-owned firms. The private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI, which centres more on small firms and coastal regions, will be published on Jan. 3.

☆ U.S. pending home sales sag more than expected in November
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Wednesday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, fell 4% to 73.9 last month from October's downwardly revised 77.0. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, would fall 0.8%. Pending home sales dropped 37.8% in November on a year-on-year basis. The housing market has suffered the most visible effects of aggressive Fed interest rate hikes that are aimed at curbing high inflation by undercutting demand in the economy. Data last week showed the combined annual sales rates of new and existing homes through November had slumped by 35% since January — among the fastest falls on record — to the slowest since late 2011.

☆ The US housing market faces a 'triple whammy' of threats - and stocks may stage a Santa Claus rally, a top strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US housing market has been hit by labor shortages, rising costs, and soaring mortgage rates. Brian Jacobsen, an Allspring strategist, described those three trends as a "triple whammy." On the other hand, the Allspring strategist suggested US stocks could reverse some of their recent declines before the new year. Its policymakers have responded by raising interest rates from almost zero in March to over 4% today. Higher interest rates encourage people to save rather than spend, and they raise the cost of borrowing, relieving upward pressure on prices.

☆ Homebuilder sentiment drops for the 12th straight month, but a bottom may be near
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Homebuilders were less confident about their business in December, but they are starting to see potential green shoots. Builder sentiment in the single-family housing market dropped two points to 31 in December on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. This is the 12th straight month of declines and the lowest reading since mid 2012, with the exception of a very brief drop at the start of the Covid pandemic. Regionally, sentiment was strongest in the Northeast and weakest in the West, where prices are highest. The NAHB continues to blame high mortgage rates, which despite the recent drop are still about twice what they were a year ago.

The decision came after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by an expected 50 basis points on Wednesday and said it would deliver more interest rate hikes next year even as the economy slips towards a possible recession. Taiwan's central bank, at its quarterly monetary policy meeting, raised the benchmark discount rate (TWINTR=ECI) by 12.5 basis points to 1.75%, in line with economists' expectations in a Reuters poll. Governor Yang Chin-long said that, while the bank was still tightening monetary policy, the direction this time was "mild" given the lack of another reserve requirement rise. "For next year's monetary policy, we will focus on stabilising prices," he told reporters. The central bank again cut its 2022 estimate for gross domestic product growth, to 2.91% from its previous forecast of 3.51% in September.

☆ Stocks are set to fall further in 2023, and investors haven't priced in a growth slowdown with inflation set to hammer corporate profits, Morgan Stanley CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"The growth slowdown is not yet priced," Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson told CNBC on Thursday about the potentially rough ride lower for the S&P 500 next year. Wilson has been warning of a potential drop in the S&P 500 to 3,000 in the first half of 2023. And the real question is, 'What does that mean about growth?,'" Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief US equity strategist, said on CNBC. And that's what's going to determine the winners — it's a stock-picking game." Wilson has projected a potential drop in the S&P 500 to 3,000 in the first half of 2023.

On the heels of Tuesday's lower-than-expected inflation reading, the Federal Reserve is expected to tap the brakes Wednesday on its aggressive rate-raising plan designed to cool price growth in the U.S. economy. In addition to the slower price growth, layoff announcements are mounting. Notably, demand for bonds has increased, reflecting growing interest in more stable returns that are often correlated with slower economic growth. Out with inflation worries, in with recession fearsKey stock market gauges, meanwhile, continue to decline on concerns about flagging corporate earnings. If it was still worried about inflation, then interest rates, energy and banks would all be higher.

☆ Taiwan c.bank will adopt 'appropriate' monetary policy next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

TAIPEI, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Taiwan's central bank said on Saturday it will adopt an "appropriate" monetary policy and properly use various tools to promote price stability and help the economy next year. Taiwan's trade-dependent economy is flagging in the face of mounting global economic woes, with its exports last month dropping 13.1% on-year, though inflation, a key central bank concern, has been slowing. It will "adopt an appropriate monetary policy and properly use various monetary policy tools" to "promote price stability and assist in economic success", it said, without elaborating. The central bank will hold its quarterly rate-setting meeting on Thursday. At its meeting next week the central bank will also provide an updated forecast for economic growth this year and next.

☆ UK labour market loses more momentum in November: REC survey
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Britain's labour market cooled noticeably last month, with demand for staff and pay growth easing, and staff shortages became less acute, a survey showed on Thursday. Hiring of permanent staff declined for a second month running. The survey, watched closely by the Bank of England as leading indicator of the labour market ahead of its interest rate decision next week, matched other signs that the economy is slowing. "A flatter period in the labour market is inevitable in this current economic climate, but demand is being supported by some major underlying factors, including labour shortages and technological change," he added. Last month BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said Britain's "very tight" labour market was a key reason why further interest rate increases were likely.

"Good news on the economy is bad news for inflation, whether that's China opening up or lower gasoline prices." The 10-year's yield rose 9.3 basis points to 3.596%. The 10-year German bund , the bloc's benchmark, rose 1.3 basis points to 1.890%. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday, and is expected to raise rates by a mere 25 basis points. The Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday and is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points.

☆ U.S. service sector activity picks up in November - ISM survey
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - U.S. services industry activity unexpectedly picked up in November, with employment rebounding, offering more evidence of underlying momentum in the economy as it braces for an anticipated recession next year. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Manufacturing activity contracted in November for the first time in 2-1/2 years, the ISM reported last week. In November, the ISM's measure of services industry employment increased to 51.5 from 49.1 in October. The survey's measure of services industry supplier deliveries fell to 53.8 from 56.2 in October.

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