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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLow VIX after CPI shows market complacency: KKM Financial's Jeff KilburgJeff Kilburg, CEO of KKM Financial, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to break down market reactions to CPI data, explain why Nvidia is 'defying gravity,' and more.
Persons: Jeff Kilburg Jeff Kilburg Organizations: KKM, Nvidia
The S & P 500 is up over 21% in the last five months, this parabolic move higher urges me to establish a hedge. I seek to protect profits and capitalize if the S & P 500 decides to reverse course and test the will of the bulls short-term. SPY 1Y mountain SPDR S & P 500 Trust (SPY) The S & P 500 is coming off a 10% gain for the first quarter, its best start to a year since 2019. However, stocks saw volatility return this Thursday as equities stumbled in an unusual trading session with a near 2% intraday bearish reversal in the SPDR S & P 500 ETF (SPY) . In the event the market moves higher, you have defined your risk in this spread and any long equity exposure you may have to the S & P 500 should offset this trade.
Organizations: Treasury Locations: U.S
Some of the key drivers that drove stocks to record highs in the first three months of the year are being undermined, leading to Tuesday's sell-off, according to investor James Abate. "Stocks are priced for perfection and for them to move higher or avoid a correction you needed rates to either go down and/or profits to move higher. Outside of macro and micro data, the stock market's woes have been exacerbated by rising geopolitical tensions, Abate added. The underperformance in the Russell 2000 small-cap index means that this market selloff isn't solely contained to high-flying tech stocks. Abate manages the Centre American Select Equity Fund, which has returned 8.9% year to date compared to its category average of 9.7%, according to Morningstar .
Persons: James Abate, Abate, Tesla, Russell, Wall Street's, Morningstar Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Centre Asset Management, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Dow, American, Equity Fund, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia Locations: Syria
But with the market at an all-time high, now is probably a good time to hedge against potential downside, experts say. That's especially the case because there's an elevated degree of risk facing stocks, and the cost of some insurance measures is historically cheap. Related storiesThe S&P 500 also looks overextended on a technical basis, according to many measures. AdvertisementRosenberg Research"The definition of a stretched market is one when the S&P 500 gaps 14% or more above the 200-day trendline. Beyond extreme, in fact — back to 1928, the S&P 500 has only drifted this far above the moving average 7% of the time," Rosenberg said.
Persons: Jim Smigiel, they've, Louis Fed, Phillip Colmar, Colmar, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Steve Sosnick, we're, Smigiel, Sosnick Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Bank of America's, Survey, Bank of America, SEI, Fed, Louis Fed Inflation, MRB Partners, Rebels, Rosenberg Research, Interactive Brokers Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, Suez
Last week, Goldman Sachs told clients they should start hedging for a market decline . Here's how Goldman suggests investors worried about a declining market can hedge their positions. Others also believe that it's time to start hedging — or at least take a more conservative stance. 'Shift into more value names' Top hedge fund manager David Neuhauser says it would depend on where investors are positioned right now. But he isn't a fan of hedging strategies like options, saying "over time you just end up with lower returns."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Neuhauser, that's, Russell, Neuhauser, Brian Arcese, he's, Arcese, It's, Freddie Lait, Lait Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, CNBC Pro, Livermore Partners, London, Nvidia, Foord Asset Management, CNBC, Latitude Investment Locations: Europe, U.S
I'll explain here and provide some examples of smart options hedges to put on from here. The Fed reiterated a forecast for three rate cuts this year while signaling that they may tolerate inflation rates above their stated 2% target for a longer period. .VIX 5D mountain CBOE Volatility Index, 5 days As I write this, the VIX Index is now roughly 12.8. In the case of SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) options for example, the implied volatility of the April 30th expiration $500 strike puts, as measured by implied volatility, fell from nearly 13.9% before the Fed announcement, to about 13.5% following. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Jerome Powell, SPDR Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Trust Locations:
Unsurprisingly, several flashing indicators suggest that investors are feeling good about the market:• CNN’s Fear & Greed Index: The indicator, which measures seven barometers of market sentiment including the VIX, Wall Street’s most well-known measure of expected stock volatility, is in “greed” territory. Market sentiment is often seen as a contrarian indicator. That means that when the herd is optimistic, money managers take it as a sign that stocks will fall, and vice versa. A closely watched gauge of US wholesale inflation rose at its fastest pace in months, according to new data released Thursday. In February, car sales climbed 1.8%, purchases of electronics and appliances increased 1.5% and sales at restaurants rose 0.4%.
Persons: • Charles Schwab, Yardeni, , Alicia Wallace, Price, Gus Faucher, Read, Bryan Mena Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Intelligence, Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, of Labor Statistics, PNC Financial Services, Retail, Commerce Department, Gas Locations: New York
Arun Prakash from Goldman's derivatives research team proposed an options trade focused on the Cboe Volatility Index , or "Vix," to hedge against a market selloff. .VIX 5Y mountain The Cboe Volatility Index has been trading at an unusually low level in 2024 so far. Generally speaking, a call option gives the holder the right to buy the underlying asset at the strike price, and serves as a bet that the asset will rise above the strike price. "Over the past 30+ years, VIX has averaged 19 in April, and we see upside risks to the current low VIX levels given current macro environment and upcoming macro/micro catalysts. If the Vix does not rise above the strike price before the options contract expires, the trader loses the premium paid for the contract.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Arun Prakash, Prakash, hasn't, That's, Goldman, VIX, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Reserve
The Simplify Tail Risk ETF , which trades under the cheeky ticker "CYA," is headed for liquidation later this month after a brutal money-losing stretch. CYA 1Y mountain Simplify's Tail Risk ETF has been beaten down by the market rally. "Tail protection, which was heavily desired in 2020, has no bids right now. And that way if you're losing money on it, and it's a tail risk ETF where you're buying a put [option], then you understand why that's happening," Armour said. "A tail risk ETF is going to go potentially over a decade without working, and that's okay.
Persons: Michael Green, Green, subpar, Bryan Armour, Armour, CYA, Philip Toews, Vix, Toews Organizations: CNBC, Fidelity, North, Asset Management Locations: North America
The broad market index has also posted gains in 16 of the last 18 weeks — something that, according to Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid, hasn't happened since 1971. However, some on Wall Street now fear the market may have overextended itself to the upside, clearing the way for a pullback from record levels. BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky also noted there's a divergence never before seen in Big Tech. Volmageddon refers to a massive volatility spike in early 2018 in which the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) more than doubled to more than 50. Bottom line: A short-term pullback in stocks could take place soon, if history is any guide.
Persons: Jim Reid, hasn't, Chris Montagu, Citi's, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Apple, RSI Locations: Big Tech
I remain optimistic on markets during this election year of 2024, but here is a short-term trade strategy that profits if volatility returns and profit taking becomes a theme during the last month of the first quarter. The S & P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq each notched their best February returns since 2015, while the Dow had its best February since 2021. This is noteworthy as historically there has been "seasonal" weakness associated with February returns, due to portfolio repositioning and earnings season disappointments. With 97% of S & P 500 companies reporting actual results, investors have seen 73% of these firms exceed EPS estimates while the S & P 500 reported growth of 4.0%, according to FactSet. It is more about the opportunity I see at these overbought levels as the SPDR S & P 500 ETF (SPY) is trading at RSI levels of 76.
Persons: Dow, Kilburg Organizations: Nasdaq
Next week, the first full trading week of March, macroeconomic concerns will take center stage for investors. Next week, the Fed chief is largely anticipated to stick to the same talking points in testifying before Congress. In fact, the February jobs report, due out next Friday, is expected to show a moderation in payroll gains. Hourly Earnings preliminary (February) 8:30 a.m. Average Workweek preliminary (February) 8:30 a.m. Manufacturing Payrolls (February) 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls (February) 8:30 a.m. Private Nonfarm Payrolls (February) 8:30 a.m. Unemployment Rate (February) — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox and Yun Li contributed to this report.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Shannon Saccocia, Kim Forrest, Webull, Michael Hartnett, CNBC's Yun Li, Melissa Brown, Brown, Wealth's Saccocia, Saccocia, Nonfarm Payrolls, , Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox, Yun Li Organizations: Federal, Fed, Capitol, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, FactSet, Barclays, Bokeh Capital Partners, Labor Department, Bitcoin, BofA Global Research, Apple, Nvidia, Ross Stores, Costco Wholesale, Kroger, . Semiconductor, Broadcom, PMI, PMI Services, Services PMI, Ross, Target, ADP, Labor, Consumer Credit Locations: U.S, REITs, Japan
Couple this with the multiple signals for exhaustion that are typical near market tops, it warrants taking action. Troubling technical signs We've seen the SPDR S & P 500 Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) both exhibit higher highs in price while momentum and their advance-decline lines print lower highs. And lastly, these same signals are showing up across the major sectors, and individual stocks that have led this rally such as Nvidia. Overall, these are signs of exhaustion for this rally and raises the probability of a pullback. With the Wall Street's fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index ( VIX) , trading just above 13, purchasing downside protection on a portfolio using SPY options is relatively inexpensive.
Persons: Zhang Organizations: Nvidia
The "Volmageddon" episode happened six years ago after traders piled into a bunch of ETFs that were designed to return the inverse of market volatility (essentially betting on a calm market). And when volatility went up in February 2018, it tanked those strategies, sending the S&P 500 down more than 10% in two weeks. As VIX futures expire, the S&P 500 is seeing stronger price reactions. The short-volatility trade became very popular after 2010 when volatility was low, and traders could make money betting against market turbulence. AdvertisementIt's not a major concern right away as volatility upticks have been small, and the S&P 500 has remained resilient.
Persons: , Tom Essaye, Essaye Organizations: Service, Business
The Fed can still break markets. Here’s how
  + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
Those gains came even as Federal Reserve officials attempted to reduce investors’ lofty expectations for a plethora of interest rate cuts this year. It is now signaling that interest rates could come this year but not until spring or summer. That means they think the Fed is keeping interest rates too high and could potentially slow down economic growth too much and risk a recession. That makes the NFL and the Super Bowl all the more valuable to advertisers trying to reach a mass market. Li-Lac Chocolates, which calls itself the oldest chocolate shop in Manhattan, told CNN that their raw chocolate prices are up 13% this February compared to a year ago.
Persons: Torsten Slok, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Olivier Darcy, Sunday’s, CNN’s John Towfighi, , Michele Buck Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Investors, Nasdaq, Federal, Apollo Global Management, National Association for Business, Atlanta Fed, CNN, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, CBS, Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, NFL, Allegiant, NFC, Fox, AFC, Super Bowl, Companies, Hershey Co Locations: New York, There’s, Las Vegas, West Africa, North America, Manhattan
Of course, the volatility outlook can change on a dime but, the VIX under 13 reveals that option traders are not worried about the S & P 500 any time soon. The Trade I want to participate in more upside for the S & P 500 anticipating 5,100 to trade before 4,900. I will define my risk as the S & P 500 just popped into overbought territory when viewed through a RSI (Relative Strength Index) perspective. To reduce the cost of simply being long an at-the-money SPDR S & P 500 Trust call, I want to buy a call spread. This is calculated by adding the $4.30 (net cost) of the spread to the lower strike price of this call spread, $500.
Organizations: U.S ., JPMorgan
A lower-cost way to play the S&P 500's run to 5,000
  + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +8 min
The S & P 500 once again closed at a new all-time high, achingly close to 5,000 for those enamored of nice round numbers. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1-year Is there an option trade we can use if we're not sure? If S & P earnings grow closer to their historical average, then $240ish (let's stick to round numbers) might be a more accurate estimate. $240 a shares multiplied by 20 = $4,800 in the S & P. So in that context 5,000 is a little rich, but not much. The VIX Index , a measure of 30 day volatility in the S & P 500, is below 13, cheaper than usual.
Persons: we're, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Krugmans, aren't Organizations: Investors, Nvidia Locations: China, U.S
Top economists are fretting about geopolitical tensions, according to a World Economic Forum survey. AdvertisementThe year 2024 will likely be a stormy one for the global economy as growth slows and geopolitical tensions ramp up around the world, according to a World Economic Forum survey. More than half the respondents said the world economy will get weaker this year, and 70% predicted looser financial conditions – implying that they believe central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, will start lowering interest rates at some point in 2024. Advertisement"Amid accelerating divergence, the resilience of the global economy will continue to be tested in the year ahead," WEF managing director Saadia Zahidi said. "Though global inflation is easing, growth is stalling, financial conditions remain tight, global tensions are deepening and inequalities are rising."
Persons: they're, Ray Dalio, Jamie Dimon, , Saadia Zahidi, JPMorgan Chase, aren't Organizations: Service, US Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Sunday Times, Bridgewater Associates Locations: Swiss, Davos, Ukraine, China, Chicago
Naysayers and market bears were annihilated last year after a better-than-expected return for the S & P 500 ETF in the post mid-term election year of 2023. My bullish view is that the recent 2% drop in the S & P 500 reveals opportunity versus signs of a much larger pullback. .VIX 6M mountain The CBOE Volatility Index, 6 months My last input into this bullish view is looking at a chart of the S & P 500 ETF (SPY) . If you concur that equity markets should perform well in this first month of January in 2024, the below bullish risk reversal should allow you to capture a short-term move higher. This risk reversal is being used as an aggressive bull trade.
Persons: Santa Claus, jitters, Kilburg Locations: Santa
Let 'em ride: Several of 2023's best-performing stocks were grossly undervalued at the beginning of the year. So while investors recognized the company could deliver massive earnings and free cash flow, they were afraid Zuckerberg had gone off the reservation. The stock sports topline growth, substantial margins, a strong balance sheet, substantial free cash flow, and a moat around its business. It's time to hedge some of those gains (or take profits): The second best-performing stock in the Russell 1000 for 2023 is Coinbase (COIN) . If you own, but don't want to sell, consider purchasing the March $45/$35 put spread as a particle hedge, as illustrated below.
Persons: David Ricardo, Ricardo, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, doesn't, Russell, cryptocurrencies, aren't, Equifax Organizations: Russell, Vertiv, Builders, Topbuild Corp, Nvidia, Investors, MU, Walmart, Visa, Mastercard, Paypal, Experian, PayPal, Palantir Technologies, Government Locations: uptrends
Like many sectors, the consumer discretionary sector has enjoyed a strong year, rallying more than 16% in 2023. Against this backdrop, one sector to watch is consumer discretionary. With this view in mind, I am looking to put on a bearish options trade on the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR fund (XLY) , which tracks the performance of the S & P 500 consumer discretionary sector. When selling credit spreads, you bring in a premium when you open the trade. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Wall Street's, XLY, Nishant Organizations: XLY Locations: Red
Options strategists believe market gyrations may stay subdued for some time - potentially smoothing the way for further gains in equities. The S&P 500 is up 19% year-to-date, following a 9% gain in November - its best monthly performance since July 2022. Since the VIX tends to move inversely to stocks, market participants watch it closely as an indicator of investor sentiment and positioning. Among the factors closely watched by market participants are the funds that take their signals from market volatility, selling when volatility picks up and buying when it subsides. History also shows that once volatility expectations become subdued, they can linger at low levels for a while.
Persons: Lucas Jackson, Ilya Feygin, Nomura, Charlie McElligott, Brent Kochuba, Cantor Fitzgerald, Eric Johnston, Cantor Fitzgerald’s, Johnston, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Grant McCool Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Monday, WallachBeth, Nomura Securities, , Thomson
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) Index , which closed Friday at 12.63 is currently approaching 5-year lows. It is calculated from the prices of S & P 500 index options. Investors can speculate in VIX futures or VIX futures options, but understanding the futures "term structure" (how the prices of various futures of different expiration relate to each other) isn't that straightforward. Consider the following chart of the Barclays iPath S & P 500 (VXX) , an exchange traded note which is intended to track the S & P 500 short-term VIX futures total return index vs. the VIX Index itself. If one is inclined to make a bullish bet, but is reluctant to get caught "chasing" after the market has already rallied sharply, perhaps we can take advantage of the fact options prices are well below average.
Persons: VXX Organizations: Barclays iPath, Broadcom, Dollar Locations: New York City, VXX, SPDR
The stock market is boring right now, and that is not a bad thing. There's a strong backdrop going into December. The S & P 500 was up 8.9%, its best month since July 2022, and the fourth-best November since 1950. If it doesn't seem that way, it's because the S & P has been flat for the past week and a half. There will be lots of complaints about high valuations, and the cynics will be right: The S & P is approaching 19-times 2024 earnings.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, let's Organizations: Triple Witching, Treasury, Atlanta, Wall Street, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Capital Markets, Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman, UBS Global Wealth, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, JPMorgan, Dow, Revenue Locations: Wells Fargo
VIX options contracts averaged nearly 760,000 daily, surpassing the record set in 2017, according to Cboe Global Markets (CBOE.Z), data as of Nov. 27. Such investors are "looking at trading VIX options as a way to potentially monetize their thinking", he said. Reuters GraphicsThe rise in VIX options trading is a change from 2022 when investors were reducing equities exposure and hoarding cash, according to CBOE data. With the VIX averaging 17 this year, VIX options' trading volume as a share of overall options volume is at 1.76%, the highest since 2020 - a much more volatile year when the VIX averaged 29, according to a Reuters analysis based on Trade Alert data. Timing profit-taking on VIX options in an environment where jumps in the volatility index are fleeting can be difficult, said Roni Israelov, chief investment officer at NDVR.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, Mandy Xu, That's, Joe Ferrara, JJ Kinahan, Seth Hickle, Roni Israelov, Laura Matthews, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Megan Davies, Chizu Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, . Federal, Cboe Global, Gateway Investment Advisers, Reuters, Trade, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Indiana, New York
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