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☆ Asian shares inch up as investors brace for China data, Fed speakers
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The guarded optimism is set to extend to Europe when markets open, with pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2%. Both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were mostly flat. China is due to report monthly industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment data on Tuesday. "However, with China's data throwing up a few concerns of late - we've seen poor import, PPI, and loan data - China's growth is very much at the heart of market moves," said Weston. U.S. crude futures fell 0.6% to $69.61 per barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 0.6% to $73.68 per barrel.

☆ Asian shares on edge for China data, Fed speakers
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

On Monday, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) wobbled between losses and gains and was last up 0.1%. China is due to report monthly industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment data on Tuesday. Very much on investors' mind was the uncertainty about lifting the U.S. debt ceiling and the return of bank worries. The yield on benchmark 10-year notes was little changed at 3.4588%, after rising 6 basis points on Friday, and two-year yields eased 2 basis points to 3.9830%, having also jumped 10 basis points in the previous session. U.S. crude futures eased 0.5% to $69.71 per barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 0.6% to $73.74 per barrel.

☆ Dollar hits 5-week high on inflation worries; lira drops, baht soars
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"But the still-high inflation and tight labour market also imply a high bar to rate cuts in the near term too." The U.S. dollar is oversold and the dollar index should move toward CBA's end-June target of 104 this week, Capurso said. The Japanese currency dipped at low as 136.03 per dollar before last trading flat at 135.80. The dollar was last up 0.31% at 19.64 Turkish lira after earlier jumping to 19.70 for the first time since March 10. The U.S. currency sank 0.65% to 33.76 baht in onshore Thai trading, and earlier dipped as much as 0.92%.

☆ Asian shares braced for China data, Fed speakers
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Investors are keenly awaiting China's central bank rate decision on Monday. Market watchers polled by Reuters expect the medium-term policy rate to be left unchanged despite disappointing data last week that fuelled concerns about a global slowdown. The country is due to report monthly industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment data on Tuesday. Very much on investors' mind was the uncertainty about lifting the U.S. debt ceiling and the return of bank worries. Oil prices were trying to find a footing after tumbling nearly 2% last week on demand concerns.

☆ Turkish lira will likely devalue whether or not Erdogan wins, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTurkish lira will likely devalue whether or not Erdogan wins, strategist saysOzan Ozkural of Tanto Capital Partners discusses Turkey's elections and says if President Recep Tayyip Erdogan loses, the country's foreign policy wouldn't change, but its monetary policy "will have to readjust into market norms."

☆ Turkish lira sinks to new record low on possibility of Erdogan re-election
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The Turkish lira slipped 0.5% to trade at 19.70 against the US dollar, a record low. The uncertainty has investors in Turkish government bonds worrying about the country’s ability to pay them back. Supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrate at the AK Party headquarters on May 14, 2023 in Istanbul, Turkey. Annual consumer price inflation surged to 85% in October, before slowing to 44% in April, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute shows. “A victory for President Erdogan, which now looks like the base case scenario… would be negative for Turkey’s macroeconomic stability and financial markets,” Peach added.

☆ Analysis: Erdogan election showing cools Turkish turnaround hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, May 15 (Reuters) - Hopes among investors of a surge in Turkish markets evaporated on Monday after long-standing President Tayyip Erdogan took a commanding position in Turkey's elections. "Hope is dead," Abrdn's head of emerging market local currency debt Kieran Curtis said of the prospects for Erdogan's main challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu and meaningful policy change. Monday's initial market reaction had seen the Turkish lira dip to 2-month low alongside more pronounced drops in banking shares and hard currency government bonds. "A continuity of policies would argue for low FX volatility," JPMorgan added, as Erdogan's economic team would look to limit the changes and FX volatility. Reuters GraphicsAdditional reporting by Libby George and Karin Strohecker; Editing by Alexander SmithOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Turkey's lira and stock markets slide as President Erdogan gains momentum in tight presidential race
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The Turkish lira sank close to another record low with Turkey's presidential election heading for an unprecedented runoff, with one analyst forecasting further weakness for the currency over the short term. "Unfortunately it looks like [what] up to 49% of Turks have voted for is an economic crisis ... The YSK confirmed Monday afternoon that the presidential election would indeed go to a runoff on May 28.. Neither 20-year incumbent Erdogan nor Kilicdaroglu has so far cleared the 50% threshold needed to secure an outright victory. The currency was trading at 19.66 against the greenback as of 1 p.m. London time on Monday.

☆ As Turkey heads to the polls, currency traders are bracing for absolute chaos
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Turkey is expected to head to the polls on Sunday. In the event of a victory by Erdogan, it's "highly likely the Turkish lira collapses within months," the founder of advisory firm Cribstone Strategic Macro Mike Harris told CNBC. "Ultimately the lack of confidence in investment will mean that the Turkish Lira will probably be among the worst performing currencies in the world for some time," he said. Turkey's monetary policy prioritizes the pursuit of growth and export competition rather than assuaging inflation. Erdogan endorses the unconventional view that raising interest rates increases inflation, rather than taming it.

☆ Opinion: Turkey’s Erdogan is in the fight of his political life. The real winner may be Putin
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Opinion Elmira Bayrasli | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

CNN —For Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s longest serving ruler, Sunday’s upcoming election may be the end of a two-decade winning streak. Following an attempted coup to unseat Erdogan, the Russian president called his Turkish counterpart and offered his country’s support. Still, it was not enough to change the eastern tilt of Turkish foreign policy. Whether Erdogan wins or loses, Ankara is unlikely to untangle itself from Moscow and turn back to the West. (The Turkish president has previously dismissed concerns about press freedom in his country).

☆ Analysis: In Turkey, an election reckoning for the rise and fall of Erdogan's economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Jonathan Spicer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

The May 14 vote, which lands during the Turkish Republic's centenary year, is Erdogan's biggest test yet. At the same time, a global reversal in market liquidity left Turkey and other emerging markets starved for funding. But the economic crisis was damaging. This trend accelerated in 2013, wiping out big gains made in 2006-2010 during Erdogan's first decade in charge. "If Erdogan wins the election and continues his economic policy it will come to a complete crash at one point.

☆ 'We can't afford anything': Turkey's cost-of-living crisis threatens Erdogan's re-election
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Ali Kucukgocmen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But a cost-of-living crisis sparked by Erdogan's unorthodox economic programme over the past 1-1/2 years has eroded his popularity, posing the biggest electoral challenge to his 20-year hold on power. The parliamentary race remains on a razor edge, with the opposition seen potentially clinching a narrow majority. Food prices surged 54% year-on-year in April, with headline inflation dropping to 43.7% after peaking in October at 85.5%, the highest under Erdogan's rule. It began to surge after a currency crisis in late 2021, sparked by a series of interest rate cuts, in line with Erdogan's unorthodox views. But many AKP voters still believe only Erdogan can fix the economy, or blame other factors for its current state.

Apparently they can in some parts of the world, such as Argentina and Turkey, where soaring prices and tumbling local currencies have forced people to seek refuge in digital coins. Trading volumes for spot bitcoin are highest during U.S. opening hours, with little change from 2022, Kaiko data showed. If dollar to crypto volumes are excluded, then the next most dominant currency is South Korea's won . Crypto trading volumes in South Korea are back to levels seen in first quarter and second quarters of 2022 after a weak fourth quarter in 2022, analysts at crypto investment firm Matrixport said. "This is in stark contrast to other crypto exchanges where bitcoin and Ethereum account for the majority of the volume."

Saatcioglu, the coordinator of Limak International Hotels & Resorts, is one of many in hospitality expecting to see Turkey's economically vital tourism sector recover from a quake that dragged down bookings and hotel stays. The quake has caused tourists to think twice before booking a trip to Turkey, a major Mediterranean holiday destination. "After months of excellent performance, when the country was leading the travel recovery in Europe (after the COVID pandemic), international tourism to Turkey is clearly taking a nosedive," he told Reuters. Despite strong bookings recently across the travel sector in Europe as a whole, Turkey has not been able to regain momentum. On the back of these auspicious March figures, the Turkish government expects to generate $56 billion in tourism revenues this year.

ISTANBUL, March 24 (Reuters) - Scores of foreign investors are returning to Istanbul and Ankara after years in the cold for a flurry of meetings to understand whether Turkish elections could bring a tidal change for its economy and financial markets. President Tayyip Erdogan's unorthodox policy approach, including aggressive rate cuts in the face of soaring inflation, left the economy and markets heavily state-managed and spurred an exodus of foreign investors over the last five years. Investors seek to understand "who will win, who will hold key positions and what the programme will be." Wall Street bank Citi said it held two days of meetings in Istanbul earlier this month for its bond and equity investors. "It may be a good opportunity to rethink Turkey's currently significant 'underweight' positioning among peer markets," the investor said.

☆ Erdogan's AKP party signals return to more orthodox economic policies in draft election manifesto -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Orhan Coskun | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

ANKARA, March 16 (Reuters) - The draft election manifesto of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's AK Party marks a return to more orthodox, free market economic policies, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. According to the sources familiar with the draft, the AK's manifesto for the upcoming election will make no reference to Ankara's more recent economic policies but instead to return to his party's prior, more orthodox approach. "The approach to the economy is very similar to that of the 2002 AK Party election manifesto. He said Erdogan's final approval of the manifesto would be required and so far he had not conveyed any dissenting opinion. If he takes office, a radical change is inevitable in economic policies, the bureaucracy and cabinet members to work in harmony with him," the AKP official said.

☆ Erdogan's party pivots back to orthodox economic policies in draft manifesto -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Orhan Coskun | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

☆ Turkey earthquake survivors search rubble for their gold savings
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Timour Azhari | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Reyhan Vural, 48, and her 59-year-old husband Metin survived the devastating Feb. 6 quake that killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey and Syria. "Our everything is in the rubble," Vural said, gesturing at the mound of debris that was her home on a quiet street lined with citrus trees. "We were going to buy a house and the gold for it was in there," she said. They believe in gold," said a contractor clearing rubble and who declined to give his name. Authorities are swiftly clearing the rubble and starting to focus on rebuilding for the millions who lost their homes.

FOREIGN POLICYThe opposition bloc will adopt the slogan of "Peace at Home, Peace in the World" as the cornerstone of Turkey's foreign policy. While promising to "work to complete the accession process" for the full membership in the European Union, the alliance has vowed to review Turkey's refugee deal of 2016 with the EU. They have also promised to establish relations with the United States with an understanding of mutual trust, and to return Turkey to the F-35 fighter jet programme. They say Turkey would maintain relations with Russia "with an understanding that both parties are equal and strengthened by balanced and constructive dialogue." They will also reform the structure and elections processes for higher courts, such as the Constitutional Court, the Court of Cassation and Council of State.

☆ Turkey slashes policy rate by 50 basis points as country continues to reel from earthquake
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Turkey's central bank on Thursday slashed its policy rate by 50 basis points from 9% to 8.5% as the country continues to reel from the aftermath of a devastating quake which affected millions of lives. The country's most recent inflation rate in January stood at 57.68%. Turkey's monetary policy is premised on a pursuit of growth and export competition rather than soothing inflation. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan espouses the unorthodox view that raising interest rates increases inflation, rather than taming it. The Turkish lira held steady at 18.87 against the greenback following the central bank decision.

☆ Top brands pull out of Russia, but their goods remain easy to find
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Alexander Marrow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Brands' continued availability shows the challenge companies face in controlling supply chains when exiting a market. Market leader Wildberries sells old stock from Inditex brands and has almost 17,000 goods in its Zara catalogue. Informal supply routes could lead to more poor-quality goods entering Russia, however, as regulators lose oversight, Ben Tzion said. IKEA brand owner Inter IKEA Group said it sold remaining stock for an undisclosed amount to Yandex as it down-scaled IKEA Retail Russia. IKEA said it was looking into goods being advertised as similar to IKEA online.

☆ Turkey earthquake could result in loss of up to 1% of country's GDP in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Jorgelina Do Rosario | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - The potential economic effects of the earthquake in Turkey could result in a loss of up to 1% of the country's gross domestic product this year, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in a report published on Thursday. "The earthquake affected to a large extent agricultural areas and areas where there is light manufacturing, so spillovers to other sectors are limited," EBRD chief economist Beata Javorcik told Reuters. Growth for Turkey, the single biggest recipient of EBRD funds, has been revised down to 3% from 3.5% in 2023, without considering the impact of the earthquake in the estimates. The bank added that growing external financing requirements and political uncertainty associated with elections in 2023 create significant economic vulnerabilities. Reporting by Jorgelina do Rosario in London Editing by Karin Strohecker and Matthew LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Turkey's devastating earthquake comes at a critical time for the country's future
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

One major emerging markets guru, Mark Mobius of Mobius Capital Partners LLP, remains bullish despite the earthquake disaster and economic problems. "When it comes to investing in Turkey, we still believe it's a viable place to invest," Mobius said. Mobius did note the glaring issue of Turkey's earthquake preparation, which may soon come to haunt Erdogan's election chances. NATO and Turkey's powerful role on the global stageInternationally, Turkey's future affects the war in Ukraine, given Erdogan's role as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to meet Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday.

☆ We still think Turkey is a 'viable' place to invest, Mark Mobius says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe still think Turkey is a 'viable' place to invest, Mark Mobius saysMark Mobius of Mark Mobius Capital Partners says Turkish businesspeople have been able to adjust, "even with high inflation and with a very weak Turkish lira."

Government bonds, which typically perform well when there is a dash for safe havens, sold off under intense pressure. The dollar rose to an almost one-month high of 132.85 yen while the euro fell 0.64% to $1.0726. Chinese equities fell on Monday, while the offshore yuan touched a one-month low against the dollar. European Central Bank and Bank of England policymakers will also be making appearances. Gold edged higher, with investors banking on the precious metal's safe-haven appeal as concerns about an economic slowdown linger.

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