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☆ Bank of Canada seen on hold even as economy accelerates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Last month, the Bank of Canada became the first major global central bank to pause its rate-hiking campaign, after lifting its benchmark rate to a 15-year high of 4.50%. This will carry through to higher economic growth." That is welcome news for most, but not for Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem, as it could call into question his decision to announce a conditional rate pause in January. "We suspect that the Bank of Canada will view the apparent strength in Q1 GDP similarly, and increase its estimate of potential growth." Canada's economy faces headwinds from higher borrowing costs and financial stability concerns, while inflation has cooled more than in the United States, said Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

☆ Airbus widens its lead over Boeing in China with plans for second finishing line there
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —Airbus announced plans Thursday for a second final-assembly line in China, the latest sign that it has a lock on the key aviation market over rival Boeing. The signing of the agreement by Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury was witnessed by Chinese President Xi Jinping and by Macron. It will add another line to the final-assembly facility that Airbus opened in Tianjin, China, in 2008, which has put the final touches on 600 A320 aircraft to date. This will lead to a demand for 8,420 passenger and freighter aircraft between now and 2041, representing more than 20% of the world’s total demand for new aircraft, Airbus predicts. Soured trade relationsBut worsening trade relations between the United States and China have basically locked Boeing out of that key market for aircraft.

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☆ Bank of Canada and Fed head for historic divergence, in a blow to loonie
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A sign is pictured outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, May 23, 2017. A lower expected peak for Canadian rates has pressured the Canadian dollar against its U.S. counterpart. ,Canadian rates have peaked below U.S. rates in the three major tightening cycles since the start of the millennium, with the gap ranging between 50 and 75 basis points. "Poring over the national accounts, it's increasingly clear that interest-sensitive demand has wilted in Canada," Warren Lovely and Taylor Schleich, strategists at National Bank of Canada, said in a note after the recent GDP data. Still, there could be a limit to how much interest-rate divergence the BoC will allow, say analysts.

☆ Bank of Canada seen leaving rates unchanged as growth stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem holds a news conference at the Bank of Canada, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Ottawa, Canada, June 22, 2020. "We expect the Bank of Canada to be the first G10 central bank to hold rates," said Jay Zhao-Murray, a forex analyst at Monex Canada. Money markets expect the policy rate to be left on hold on Wednesday but are pricing in another tightening by September. "Look for the Bank of Canada to point to slowing GDP growth and inflation when justifying its decision to maintain the level of rates," said Royce Mendes and Tiago Figueiredo, Desjardins economists, in a note. "The central bank is unlikely to do much to endorse the view that further rate hikes will be necessary," they said.

☆ Bank of Canada to hold rates steady at 4.50% through this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Milounee Purohit | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

All 32 economists polled Feb. 24 to March 3 expect the BoC to hold its overnight rate at 4.50% on March 8. A majority forecast the BoC to keep it there for the rest of 2023, despite several more rate hikes expected from the U.S. Federal Reserve. In the meantime, Canada inflation data are headed in the right direction. "Well, the interesting thing could be in the tone of the statement," said Brown, who expects a hawkish tone. "The Federal Reserve's continued rate hikes will eventually make their way into Canadian inflation through exchange rates...so that will certainly push the Bank of Canada to do more," said Shelly Kaushik, an economist at BMO Capital Markets.

☆ Not so quiet on the BAFTA front as anti-war remake tops the billing
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-19 | by ( Marie-Louise Gumuchian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/5] Albrecht Schuch, Edward Berger, and Malte Grunert arrive at the world premiere of "All Quiet on the Western Front" at the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) in Toronto, Ontario, Canada September 12, 2022. REUTERS/Mark Blinch/File PhotoLONDON, Feb 19 (Reuters) - A German remake of anti-war classic "All Quiet on the Western Front" leads the contenders at the British Academy Film Awards on Sunday, the country's highest accolade for the industry. "Banshees", about two feuding friends on a remote island off the coast of Ireland, and "Everything Everywhere" each have received 10 nominations. Bill Nighy ("Living"), Paul Mescal (Aftersun") and Daryl McCormack ("Good Luck to You, Leo Grande") complete the leading actor nominees list. BAFTA Chief Executive Jane Millichip said while Grozev would not attend the ceremony, the film's nominated producers would.

☆ Tesla denies Workers United's accusations, saying it laid off 27 workers in New York for 'poor performance' before it learned of unionization efforts
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Tesla said it laid off 27 employees in Buffalo, New York due to poor performance. Tesla rejected the allegation it had laid off the workers due to a unionization campaign. The claim that Tesla pressures employees to do so is categorically false," said Tesla. Tesla, Workers United, and the NLRB did not immediately Insider's requests for comment sent outside regular business hours. In 2021, the NLRB ruled Tesla repeatedly violated labor laws by trying to prevent workers from unionizing and from talking about working conditions.

OTTAWA, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on Thursday that the economy remains overheated and the jobs market is too tight, as he kept the door open to future interest rate hikes. On Jan. 25, the Bank hiked its key interest rate to 4.5%, the highest level in 15 years, and became the first major central bank to say it would hold off on further increases as long as prices eased as forecast. "The Canadian economy remains overheated and clearly in excess demand and this continues to put upward pressure on many domestic prices," Macklem said. "The tightness in the labor market needs to ease, wage growth needs to moderate and service price inflation needs to cool" or else more interest rate hikes will be needed, he added. At its last policy meeting, the Fed lifted its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 4.50% to 4.75% range.

☆ Morning Bid: Growth trumps rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

While there were some questions about seasonal adjustments in the data, economists were impressed that sales growth was pretty broad based and have scrambled to re-crunch first quarter U.S. output forecasts as a result. There may be a more mixed picture from Thursday's data slate on producer prices, housing starts and weekly jobless claims. Even though rates futures and Treasury yields ticked back a bit today, pricing now has Fed policy rates moving as high as 5.25% and staying above 5% all year. And while full-year earnings growth estimates for S&P500 companies have sunk to zero, consensus forecasts are now pencilling in a rebound of almost 12% next year. Uncertainty about the pace of growth and annual tax receipts in April makes it difficult for government officials to predict the exact "X-date", it said.

The jobless rate held steady at 5%, which is just a decimal point higher than the record low, Statistics Canada (Statscan) said. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a net gain of 15,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to edge up to 5.1% in January. "However, that won't stop markets reacting to today's strong data by pricing in a greater probability of further hikes, and pricing out rate cuts," he said. Before the jobs numbers, markets had been betting that the Bank of Canada's next move would be to cut rates. When he announced a pause on rates, Governor Tiff Macklem said it was "conditional" and did not rule out further increases.

☆ -Bank of Canada rate hike reflected labor tightness, stronger-than-expected growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

On Jan 25 the Bank of Canada hiked its key interest rate to 4.5%, the highest level in 15 years, and became the first major central bank to say it would likely hold off on further increases for now. On Tuesday, Governor Tiff Macklem said no further rate hikes would be needed if, as expected, the economy stalled and inflation fell. "Council wanted to convey that the bar for additional rate increases was now higher" and to "give a clear sense that they would need an accumulation of evidence to determine whether further rate increases would be required" to return inflation to target. The Bank of Canada had stood out from its peers, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, in not providing some form of record of their meetings. (Reporting by Steve Scherer, editing by David Ljunggren)((Reuters Ottawa bureau; david.ljunggren@tr.com))Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/UPDATE 1Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bank of Canada takes historic step in improving transparency with release of minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TORONTO, Feb 8 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada will release minutes from its policy setting meeting for the first time on Wednesday, as the central bank battles to restore credibility lost during last year's fight to contain inflation. The Bank of Canada has come under a rare attack from critics, including the opposition Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, for misjudging inflation, which led to renewed calls for it to release minutes and be more transparent about its decision-making process. While inflation was a global problem, the Bank of Canada has stood out from its peers, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, in not providing some form of record of their meetings. Following a review from the International Monetary Fund, the central bank accepted a key recommendation and agreed to release the "Summary of Deliberations," similar to meeting minutes released by other central banks. On Wednesday, the bank will release minutes of its January meeting at 1:30 p.m.

☆ Morning Bid: Powell's state of the union
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Jerome Powell makes his first speech since the Fed's latest quarter-point interest rate rise last week. More importantly, it's his first chance to comment on Friday's seemingly blockbuster U.S. employment report for January. Perhaps just as significantly, they now price year-end Fed rates higher than the 4.5-4.75% range they are at right now. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic on Monday said of the jobs readout: "It'll probably mean we have to do a little more work." Investors will watch Biden's State of the Union with one eye on the potentially destabilising debt ceiling standoff with Congress.

OTTAWA, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on Tuesday that no further rate hikes will be needed if, as expected, the economy stalls and inflation comes down. The central bank has over the last 11 months lifted rates at a record pace to 4.5% to tame inflation, which was 6.3% in December, still well above the bank's 2% target. On Monday, a median of market participants surveyed by the central bank forecast borrowing costs would come down by half-a-percentage-point by the end of this year, and would fall further next year. "We need to pause rate hikes before we slow the economy and inflation too much. "The considerable tightening we've done will continue to work its way through the economy, and this will rebalance demand and supply and slow inflation."

That prompted the central bank to pause its most aggressive tightening cycle for now, becoming the first major central bank to do so. Traders have already bid up Canadian stocks and the Canadian dollar , dubbed a 'commodity currency', since the news of China reopening surfaced in December. Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said that for Canada, China's reopening is more a "clear-cut positive" than it would be for other countries with fewer commodities exports. The U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have since laid the groundwork for a pause as well. Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay said China's reopening will help put a floor under global price levels, potentially offsetting demand destruction as economies slow.

☆ Take Five: The Bottom Line
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Australia and India's central banks are navigating the shifting sands of data and markets are digesting what the world's top central banks have to offer. The question is what impact this will have on bonds and stocks markets after a stellar January? Reuters Graphics4/ RUN RALLY, RUNIt was a stellar start to 2023 for markets - stocks and government bonds enjoyed one of the best Januaries on record, fuelled by optimism that the worst is over. That's not good for a central bank, nor is the idea that their communication is ineffective. Policy rate hikes and cuts by central banks overseeing the 10 most traded currencies.

☆ Central banks hike rates again, but a pause is coming
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Joshua RobertsLONDON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Major central banks are steadily moving closer to a pause in their aggressive interest rate hiking campaigns. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England raised rates on Thursday, but markets suspect a peak is nearing. Overall, 10 big developed economies have raised rates by a combined 2,965 basis points in this cycle to date, with Japan the holdout dove. Canada's central bank has raised its policy rate at a record pace of 425 basis points in 10 months. The central bank raised its forecast for its peak interest rate to 5.5%, up from a previous forecast of 4.1%.

In both the United States and Europe, the words of central bankers led investors to cut their estimates of the peak or "terminal" rate expected in the current tightening cycle. With financial conditions loosening despite rising policy rates, "central banks must...be resolute in their fight against inflation and ensure policy remains appropriately tight long enough to durably bring inflation back to target," Adrian and others wrote. The European Central Bank seems furthest from a likely stopping point. Combined, the statements mark the start of the endgame for central banks that were slow to recognize the onset of inflation last year before engaging in a record-setting round of rate increases. Central bankers long ago stopped using the word "transitory" in reference to inflation that proved faster and more persistent than any expected.

☆ Morning bid: Parsing the peak, sidestepping a slump
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"We are turning the corner on inflation," BoC Governor Tiff Macklem told reporters, while dismissing any thought of policy easing for now. Just how bad the underlying economy gets before the central banks are done is the other burning question. On the activity side, the prospect of reviving growth in China and the euro zone certainly changes the international picture. In Europe, STMicroelectronics jumped 8% after the chipmaker reported a sales beat and Finnish telecom equipment maker Nokia jumped 5% after its own beat. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Exclusive: -Bank of Canada's Macklem says he is 'not even thinking' of cutting rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

OTTAWA, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem on Wednesday said he was focused on whether interest rates would need to go higher and is not even considering cutting them as part of the fight against inflation. Macklem made his remarks in an interview with Reuters after earlier announcing a rate hike and saying the central bank would pause to see how the economy was reacting to tightening. "As things start to get more back to normal, at some point, yes, we probably will be thinking about some modest cuts in interest rates," Macklem said. We're not even thinking about cuts ... the question really we're asking ourselves is, 'Have we done enough?' (Reporting by Steve Scherer and David Ljunggren)((Reuters Ottawa bureau, +1 647 480 7921; david.ljunggren@tr.com))Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/MACKLEM RATESOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

[1/2] A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie", is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto January 23, 2015. "We are turning the corner on inflation," Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem told reporters. If the economy evolves as forecast, the bank "expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases," the statement announcing the rate hike said. "Governing Council is prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target," the statement said. "The Bank of Canada is back to using forward guidance," said Royce Mendes, director and head of macro strategy at Desjardins.

☆ 'P.R. job' or antidote to 'groupthink'? Bank of Canada to offer policy-meeting minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-22 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Annual inflation shot to 8.1% in June, the highest in 39 years and four times the Bank of Canada's 2% target. On the recommendation of the International Monetary Fund, the BoC in September said it would release minutes to improve transparency,Other central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank already provide some form of record of their meetings. "The big enemy for policymakers and investors is groupthink," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex LLC. JOB'Other market-watchers say releasing minutes is more an exercise in public relations than an effort to boost transparency. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReporting by Steve Scherer, additional reporting by Fergal Smith, editing by Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Some two-thirds of firms expect a recession over the next 12 months, with 90% of those expecting it to be mild. Several businesses said rising interest rates were slowing household demand and housing market activity. The survey showed that 84% of firms expect inflation to remain above 3% for the next two years, up from 77% in the third quarter. Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 6.8% in November as gasoline prices rose more slowly, still well above the central bank's 2% target, data showed last month. Almost 64% of consumers said they would reduce spending and save more to cope with inflation and rising interest rates.

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