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☆ Consumer debt hits record $16.9 trillion as delinquencies rise as well
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Consumer debt hit a fresh record at the end of 2022 while delinquency rates rose for several types of loans, the New York Federal Reserve reported Thursday. Debt across all categories totaled $16.9 trillion, up about more than $1.3 trillion from a year ago as balances rose across all major categories. Auto loan debt delinquencies rose 0.6 percentage point to 2.2% while credit card debt jumped 0.8 percentage point to 4%. Student loan debt also increased for the month after staying flat during much of the pandemic amid government-backed amnesty for borrowers. Auto loan debt edged higher to $1.55 trillion while credit card balances rose to just shy of $1 trillion.

☆ We just got a fresh sign that Biden's plan to give millions of student-loan borrowers who fell behind on payments a shot at debt relief is working
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The New York Fed found that $34 billion in delinquent student loans were marked current in the last quarter of 2022. That's thanks to Biden's "Fresh Start" plan, which aimed to restore defaulted borrowers to good standing. The plan will remain in place for a year after student-loan payments resume. In fact, student-loan borrowers who were previously behind on their payments — or delinquent — saw their conditions improve in the last quarter thank to President Joe Biden's "Fresh Start" plan. Student-loan payments are currently set to resume 60 days after June 30, or 60 days after the lawsuits blocking Biden's broad debt relief are resolved, whichever happens first.

☆ Americans in January expected mostly stable gains in future inflation, NY Fed says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Respondents to the regional Fed bank's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations said they expected inflation one year from now to hold steady at 5%. Respondents projected higher food and energy costs, while they saw steady future gains for rent and medical costs. The survey also found that respondents in January saw expected future household earnings growth at 3.3%, down from the expected 4.6% rise in the prior month. The New York Fed noted this was the biggest one-month drop ever for this measure. Meanwhile, expected future spending growth moderated to 5.7% last month, from the 5.9% forecast in December.

☆ Goldman sees big layoff announcements as 'a ripple, not a wave'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The rash of large layoffs at tech companies are not representative of a major breach in the labor market, according to Goldman Sachs. However, Goldman economists this week say they see a solid labor market and, in fact, less of a chance that the economy will contract over the next year. "We expect the recent round of corporate layoffs to be a ripple, not a wave," Goldman said in a recent client note. "It is also important to bear in mind that not every layoff translates into a lasting increase in unemployment because most workers find new jobs," Goldman economist Ronnie Walker wrote. Already one of the more optimistic forecasters on Wall Street, Goldman this week lowered its recession probability to 25%, from 35%, well below expectations elsewhere.

☆ Iraq to discuss with U.S. how to pay Russian energy firms, Iraqi foreign minister says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BAGHDAD, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Iraq will discuss with Washington this week how to pay dues owed to Russian oil companies despite sanctions, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said on Monday. There are sanctions in place that should not be imposed on the Iraqi side because the cooperation with Russian companies is ongoing and there are active Russian companies in Iraq," Hussein said during a news conference with visiting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Baghdad. Russian investments in Iraq are believed to be worth more than $10 billion, mostly in the oil industry. Huessin said that one of the main issues he and Lavrov talked about was how to pay bills owed to Russian energy companies such as Lukoil and Gazprom that do business in Iraq even though Russia is under international sanctions. Hussein stated during a joint press conference with Lavrov that Iraq is calling for peaceful solutions and encouraging dialogue between Russia and Ukraine to end the war.

☆ Upside surprises — Credit Suisse predicts these stocks will have a big 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Certain names will surprise to the upside in 2023, according to Credit Suisse, in what's expected to be another volatile year for the stock market. Credit Suisse predicts Carnival will see upside to estimates for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in 2023 and 2024. Carnival has 47% upside to Credit Suisse's $16 price target, as of Wednesday's close. CCL mountain 2020-01-26 Carnival's performance since late January, 2020 Meanwhile, FedEx had a challenging 2022 but could rally nearly 27%, according to Credit Suisse's $238 price target. Nvidia shares have more than 8% upside to Credit Suisse's $210 price target.

☆ Hundreds protest in Baghdad over Iraqi dinar's slide
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BAGHDAD, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Hundreds of people demonstrated near central bank headquarters in Baghdad on Wednesday to protest at the recent slide of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar that has triggered a rise in prices of imported consumer goods. Hundreds from different Iraqi regions waved Iraqi flags or carried banners demanding government intervention to stop the dinar's decline to around 1,620 to the greenback from 1,470 in November. Under the curbs that took effect this month, Iraqi banks must use an online platform to reveal their transaction details. [1/2] Police officers gather as Iraqi protesters demonstrate against the dinar's slide in value against the U.S. dollar, near the central bank in Baghdad, Iraq January 25, 2023. Dozens of anti-riot policemen were deployed around the central bank building and surrounding streets but no clashes or arrests were reported.

☆ Analysis: Iraqi PM walks diplomatic tightrope in crackdown on dollars smuggled to Iran
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( Ahmed Rasheed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The New York Federal Reserve introduced tighter controls on international dollar transactions by commercial Iraqi banks in November. "Americans are using the dollar transfer rigid restrictions as warning messages to Prime Minister Sudani to stay tuned with the American interests. The new system has slowed down dollar transactions, said Nabil al-Marsoumi, economics professor at Basra University. Meanwhile the price of consumer goods has increased and the Iraqi currency has taken a beating. The Iraqi prime minister replaced the central bank governor after the slide in the dinar, the state news agency said on Monday.

☆ Fed's Williams: Inflation remains too high, Fed has more work to do
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's Williams: Inflation remains too high, Fed has more work to doCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on comments from the New York Federal Reserve president John Williams.

☆ New York state manufacturing collapses, monthly survey finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

WASHINGTON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - The New York Federal Reserve said on Tuesday its barometer on business activity in New York state fell in January to the lowest level since mid-2020 as orders plunged and employment growth stalled. The regional Fed's "Empire State" index on current business conditions plummeted to -32.9 this month from -11.2 in December. That was lowest level since mid-2020 and the fifth worst reading in the survey's history. A reading below zero signals the New York manufacturing sector is contracting. Inventories rose, while employment growth stalled and the average workweek shortened.

☆ Banks dress up for a business-casual recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Jan 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - A recession is coming for U.S. banks, but it’s wearing comfortable shoes. Bank of America is writing off 1.7% of its card loans, on an annualized basis, compared with an average of 2.7% since 2013. America’s collective credit card limit is growing at a 9% annual clip, according to the New York Federal Reserve, the fastest since 2008. Citi has put aside enough to cover 7.6% of its credit card loans going up in smoke - more than triple the current level. It said 1.7% of credit card loans had been written off, on an annualized basis, compared with a 2.7% average rate since 2013.

Brent crude was up $1.29, or 1.6%, at $79.80 a barrel by 1:29 p.m. EST (1829 GMT). "The gradual reopening of the Chinese economy will provide an additional and immeasurable layer of price support," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. The rally followed a drop last week of more than 8% for both oil benchmarks, their biggest weekly declines at the start of a year since 2016. As part of a "new phase" in the fight against COVID-19, China opened its borders over the weekend for the first time in three years. "The NY Fed data should be supportive for oil prices, as it suggests that inflation is peaking," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures group.

☆ NY Fed survey finds reduced near-term inflation expectations in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Meanwhile, respondents’ expectations for inflation three years from now were unchanged at 3% while projections of inflation in five years’ time stood at 2.4%, up from 2.3% in November. The decline in near-term inflation expectations comes as the Fed has been aggressively pushing forward with rate rises aimed at lowering some of the highest price pressure readings in decades. Fed officials have been confident that will succeed in part because they have viewed longer-run inflation expectations data as relatively stable compared with their 2% target. Respondents to the survey had discordant expectations about their outlooks for income and spending. But expected spending tumbled, falling from November’s 6.9% expected rise to 5.9% in December.

☆ Consumers see inflation—and spending—cooling off in the year ahead, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

People shop for goods at a Publix in Nashville, Tennessee, on December 22, 2022, ahead of winter storm Elliot. Consumers see the inflation burden easing while they expect to pull back considerably on their spending, according to a closely watched survey the New York Federal Reserve released Monday. Consumers expect gas prices to increase 4.1% and food prices to rise 7.6% over the next year, but both figures represent 0.7 percentage point declines from the previous month. Despite the efforts, survey respondents grew more optimistic about the labor market, with 40.8% expecting the unemployment rate to be higher a year from now, a 1.4 percentage point decline from November. Home prices also are expected to grow 1.3%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from November, according to the survey.

☆ Consumer debt skyrockets as historic inflation persists
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Christian Nunley | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumer debt skyrockets as historic inflation persistsAmericans are racking up more and more credit card debt. $930 billion in the third quarter of 2022, according to the New York Federal Reserve. Watch this video to learn how Americans got here.

☆ NY Fed says China's COVID woes are pressuring supply chains
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The regional Fed bank's December Global Supply Chain Pressure Index ticked down to 1.18 from November's revised 1.23 reading. According to the report, supply chain pressures have been easing notably since the spring of last year and bottomed in September, and have since then been bouncing around in a tight range. Given China's large role in manufacturing, that approach has kept pressure on supply chains over recent months. The report noted that China's recent woes were affecting other Asian economies, and said the future of that nation's impact on supply chains is uncertain. Supply chain pressures as measured by the New York Fed have been generally easing since hitting a peak in the closing months of 2021.

☆ Resuming student-loan payments this year without Biden's debt cancellation could be especially harmful to borrowers with auto and credit card debt, the NY Fed says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Even if the Supreme Court strikes down student-debt relief, payments will likely resume this year. This could be particularly harmful for borrowers with other forms of debt, the NY Fed said. The Fed said a resumption without relief would put borrowers with other forms of debt, like credit card and auto, at increased risk of falling into delinquency. "Eligible borrowers have always had higher delinquency rates on these debts," the Fed wrote, referring to borrowers who would be eligible for Biden's student-debt relief. Borrowers just don't want to see payments resume without relief.

☆ Tax strategies to use before the New Year: How to take advantage of this year's stock market losses minimize your tax bill, and other tactics to keep in mind
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

For stock market investors, there are a number of strategies one can employ over the next couple of months to lower their tax bill for 2022, according to tax experts that spoke with Insider. One of the most common strategies is tax loss harvesting, said Tanya Taylor, the founder and CEO of Grow Your Wealth and former financial regulator with the New York Federal Reserve. Investors should also consider gains made outside of the stock market when thinking about tax loss harvesting, said Ryan McKeown, a financial advisor at Wealth Enhancement Group. Below are the 2022 income tax brackets. Tax FoundationAnother strategy investors can use to minimize their 2022 tax bill is to donate stock to charity, both McKeown and Freifeld said.

On the heels of Tuesday's lower-than-expected inflation reading, the Federal Reserve is expected to tap the brakes Wednesday on its aggressive rate-raising plan designed to cool price growth in the U.S. economy. In addition to the slower price growth, layoff announcements are mounting. Notably, demand for bonds has increased, reflecting growing interest in more stable returns that are often correlated with slower economic growth. Out with inflation worries, in with recession fearsKey stock market gauges, meanwhile, continue to decline on concerns about flagging corporate earnings. If it was still worried about inflation, then interest rates, energy and banks would all be higher.

Consumers are racking up credit card debt at a pace not seen in decades as inflation continues to pervade the U.S. economy. And while analysts say many U.S. consumers remain in good financial shape thanks mostly to low unemployment, the debt situation is growing dire. As the Federal Reserve has continued to lift interest rates to counter sky-high inflation, credit card rates have climbed to the highest levels ever measured. At just 2.1%, credit card delinquency rates remain below pre-pandemic levels. Still, said Raneri of TransUnion, as long as credit card companies are willing to continue to extend credit, credit scores will mostly remain unaffected.

☆ Millennials have the most credit card debt in these 10 places — and California's not on the list
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Cheyenne Devon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

On average, millennials owe about $4,930 in credit card debt, according to the latest data from credit bureau Experian. But in some places, the average amount of credit card debt for millennials, who range in age from 26 to 41, is even higher. And despite California being one of the most expensive states to live in 2022, it didn't rank as one the top 10 places where millennials have a lot of credit card debt. Here's a look at the places where millennials carry the most credit card debt, on average, as of 2021. How to tackle credit card debt

☆ Americans' financial fragility largely unchanged in 2022, NY Fed says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The regional Fed bank said in its latest Credit Access Survey, which was released on Monday and details developments for this year, that respondents reported "a slight increase in the subjective financial fragility of U.S. There was also little change among those who said they might need $2,000 unexpectedly, according to the New York Fed report, which concluded that both measures have been little changed since 2015, even as the coronavirus pandemic roiled the economy. The New York Fed report also found that overall there has been "a decline in consumer credit demand in 2022, with most credit application rates stable or weakening, except for a rise in credit card applications." The report was released as the U.S. central bank presses ahead with aggressive interest rate increases that are aimed at lowering high levels of inflation. Fed policy is also expected to drive up unemployment, although the job market has remained resilient so far.

☆ Premarket stocks: Get ready for a spending slowdown this holiday season
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Retail sales surged by 1.3% in October. What’s happening: Wednesday’s headline retail sales numbers, reported by the US Census Bureau, came in strong, but the momentum is unlikely to continue. These cracks in retail are starting to show just as the sector enters its most critical sales period: The holiday shopping season. The bottom line: This holiday season will likely be a mixed bag with some winners and losers in the retail sector, said Saunders. “We do have to do some tax rises, do some spending cuts, if we’re going to show we’re a country that pays our way,” he told Sky News on Sunday.

☆ Treasury market liquidity crunch could derail the Federal Reserve's policy, New York Fed chief says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Dysfunctioning US bond markets run the risk of undermining central bank monetary policy, according to John Williams. "If the Treasury market isn't functioning well, it can impede the transmission of monetary policy to the economy," he said. "Monetary policy influences the economy by affecting financial conditions, with the Treasury market at the center of it all. If the Treasury market isn't functioning well, it can impede the transmission of monetary policy to the economy." Williams' comments come as a liquidity crunch takes hold of the $24 trillion Treasury market and threatens to grind the world's most vital bond market to a halt.

That came on the heels of last week's report that October consumer prices rose less than anticipated, and Fed officials have signaled they are likely done with the three-quarter-point rate increases approved at the central bank's last four meetings. "Tech companies may have over-extrapolated the rapid growth they experienced during the pandemic and are now correcting for over-hiring," the Goldman economists wrote. Job growth through October remained strong but was moderating from its pre-pandemic highs, and Fed officials said they saw some initial signs that wage growth was beginning to cool. Curbing demand is one aim of Fed rate increases that have come at the fastest pace in 40 years on the expectation that less consumption will translate into less inflation. "You'd actually expect more competitive pressure to start bringing those costs down," Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard said Monday at a Bloomberg event.

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