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☆ Inflation is expected to have declined in December, but it may not be enough to stop the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

They also point to weaker-than-expected wage growth in December's jobs report, as well as other data that reflects lower inflation expectations. Inflation is rolling over, and the Fed is almost done raising interest rates," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point. Rental market data shows a slowing in rates, but the CPI has not yet reflected it. "Everyone is familiar with the lag that it takes for the data to show up in the CPI," Tilley added.

☆ It'll take time before investors think of emerging markets as 'the place to be' in 2023: Analyst
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt'll take time before investors think of emerging markets as 'the place to be' in 2023: AnalystMatteo Andreetto, head of SPDR ETF Business for State Street Global Advisors, says emerging markets "look very interesting" and sees opportunity in them.

☆ Asia-Pacific markets set to rise as China reopens borders with Hong Kong
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

While some economists anticipate a half point hike after that meeting, traders in the futures market put greater odds on a smaller, 25 basis point hike. A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point. "It's pricing 100% chance of a 25 basis point hike, and a 30% chance for an additional 25. "The market is still expecting the Fed to go another 60, almost 70 basis points," he said. Boockvar said the end point for the Fed matters more than if it raises by 25 basis points or 50 when it next meets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 700.53 points, or 2.13%, to close at 33,630.61. The S&P 500 ended up 86.98 points, or 2.28%, to 3,895.08. It was the best day for the Dow and S&P 500 since Nov. 30 and the best for the Nasdaq since Dec. 29. Friday’s rally helped stocks end in positive territory for the week, which was the first of the year. The Dow and S&P 500 each closed the week up 1.5%.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Stock swoon resets valuations but recession risk, rates cloud outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 tumbled 19.4% in 2022, as the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes designed to tamp down 40-year high inflation punished asset prices. The market's 2022 slide cut the ratio of price to forward earnings estimates to around 17 from about 21.7 a year ago, according to Refinitiv Datastream. S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio over timeValuations may still be too high if a recession comes to pass, as many on Wall Street expect. Combined with an expectation of weakening earnings estimates, that would lower the S&P 500 to 3,200, UBS said, roughly 16% below current levels. The 2022 surge in interest rates also could undermine stock valuations by making relatively safe assets like U.S. Treasuries more attractive alternatives.

Nearly 165 million people were either in jobs or looking for them last month, a record high that showed a long-hoped-for improvement in labor supply. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe jobs report is "the embodiment of the soft landing narrative - this idea that can you have a strong labor market with slowing wage growth," said Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors. Ideally, she said, that should allow the Fed to slow and soon pause its interest rate hikes. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsTraders took the report as evidence the Fed's work is near to being done. Still, she said, "inflation remains far too high, despite some encouraging signs lately, and is therefore of great concern."

☆ UK stock funds lost a record $10 billion last year, new research shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.K.-focused equity funds saw record outflows in 2022. LONDON — Investors ditched U.K. stock funds at a record rate last year, according to new research, with the selling outpacing that in other major markets. That compared with £2.65 billion in outflows from other European stock funds, £1.17 billion from North American funds and £1 billion from Asia-Pacific funds. Meanwhile, passive equity funds, which track a stock market or market sector, saw their first year of net outflows on its records. Bright spots were global environmental, social, and corporate governance equity funds, which added £6.35 billion, and emerging market funds, which added £647 million.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Stumbling Treasury rally clouds bond market outlook for 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] A street sign for Wall Street is seen outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, New York, U.S., July 19, 2021. December’s BofA Global Research survey showed fund managers were the most overweight bonds versus stocks in nearly 14 years. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields have climbed over 40 basis points since mid-December to nearly 3.9%, the highest in over a month. At the moment, the Treasury market “is more focused on inflation still than … recession," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. Matthew Nest, head of active global fixed income at State Street Global Advisors, believes yields will likely fall in 2023.

☆ Inflation is coming down too slowly to comfortably return to a 2% level in 2023, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation is coming down too slowly to comfortably return to a 2% level in 2023, strategist saysAltaf Kassam, EMEA head of investment strategy and research at State Street Global Advisors, speaks on CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe."

☆ Analysis: Bank of Japan gives an inch, investors ready to claim a mile
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But rather than providing breathing room, investors say it is likely to encourage more of the sort of pressure that has bent the bond market out of shape. "Fifty basis points becomes the new 25 basis points. When trading resumed in Japan, 10-year JGB yields shot towards their new ceiling and futures fell so fast it triggered a circuit breaker suspending trade. By the end of the session, 10-year bond yields sat 14.5 basis points higher at 0.395%, the sharpest one-day rise for Japanese 10-year yields in more than 14 years. Mandatory credit Kyodo/via REUTERSThose swaps - another market measure of interest rate expectations - tracked bond yields until early this year.

☆ How a GOP-controlled House will attack ESG and corporate climate change strategy
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Tim Mullaney | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"I don't think that's a proper characterization of my view," McHenry said in an interview with CNBC Senior Congressional Correspondent Ylan Mui. What I think corporations should do is focus on their key knitting," he said. Vanguard Group also had been scheduled to testify, but after the fund giant abandoned an investment industry climate alliance, that changed. McHenry, rated as one of the most moderate House Republicans by non-profit GovTrack US, doesn't seem interested in the state approach. "It plays politics with corporations, in the name of having corporations not play politics."

☆ $3.2 trillion State Street shares their 3-part strategy for driving returns in 2023 as the economy falters and enters a recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The bad news for investors in 2023, according to Michael Arone, is that a recession is likely to hit the US economy. State Street Global Advisors currently has $3.2 trillion in assets under management. State Street Global AdvisorsWhat's more, Arone said, is high-dividend stocks also outperform in high-inflation environments like the current one. State Street Global AdvisorsThe Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) is one way to gain exposure to high-dividend stocks. State Street Global AdvisorsSemiconductor stocks are also historically undervalued, Arone said.

☆ Bank of Japan makes surprise policy tweak
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

ATUSHI TAKEDA, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ITOCHU ECONOMIC RESEARCH, TOKYO:"Today's move reflects the BOJ's determination not to alter its yield cure control policy. CAROL KONG, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA, SYDNEY:"I think the move was certainly unexpected, to say the least. MOH SIONG SIM, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, BANK OF SINGAPORE:"They've widened the band, and I guess that came earlier than expected. CHRISTOPHER WONG, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, OCBC, SINGAPORE:"The timing of the policy tweak is a surprise, though we have been expecting the move to come in 2Q 2023. "The tweak may seem modest but is significant for a central bank that has held dovish for a long time.

HSBC "underperforms its peers, violates dividend commitments (and) ignores shareholders' interests," Ken Lui, convener of the group , said in a Thursday newspaper advertisement. London-headquartered HSBC, which is opposed to breaking up its business, dismissed the possibility of the proposal gaining traction among large shareholders. Hong Kong is HSBC's biggest market and home to many retail shareholders. DIVIDEND SUSPENSIONHong Kong retail shareholders were particularly upset when HSBC scrapped its formerly stable dividend in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, when the Bank of England asked lenders to conserve capital. It has resumed paying a dividend but not quarterly, and retail investors are dissatisfied with payouts that, overall, are smaller than before.

☆ Here's how the Federal Reserve confused the markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Markets had flip flopped Wednesday afternoon, after the Federal Reserve released its policy statement and new interest rate and economic forecasts. Swonk noted there is agreement among Fed officials to drive rates higher, and most officials forecast an end point for rates above 5% in 2023. Fed funds futures Thursday showed a high rate of 4.89% by next May, still below the Fed's target. Every month that goes by means there's somebody's debt that matures that's going to be needed to be refinanced at a higher rate." With the economy weakening, I think the inflation rate is going to fall faster than most economists do."

☆ Strong returns could be hard to find in 2023. How to prep your portfolio and generate income
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-11 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Wall Street is warning of a stormy start to 2023 , but investors should prepare to find pockets of opportunity and ensure their portfolio is running efficiently. Bond prices have tumbled alongside stocks, such that even the iShares Core Growth Allocation ETF – which is based on a 60/40 split between equities and fixed income – has dropped nearly 15%. Higher yields on fixed income The silver lining of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hiking campaign is the rising yield investors can find on even the most boring fixed income offerings. Meanwhile, Series I savings bonds that are issued from Nov. 1 to April 30, 2023 have a current interest rate of 6.89%. Short-term Treasurys are another attractive option for your fixed income sleeve.

☆ Analysis: Investors look to emerging markets as planets align for end of dollar bull market
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Dec 6 (Reuters) - As the U.S. dollar tumbles from multi-decade highs, some investors are betting emerging market currencies will be big winners from a sustained reversal in the greenback. Signs of a broader turn in dollar sentiment are visible in the buck’s 8% decline against a basket of developed market currencies from its September highs. "The planets are lining up for a dollar bear market," said Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi US. Emerging market currencies have outperformed their developed market counterparts this year, with MSCI's index of emerging market currencies down 5% year-to-date, while the dollar's G10 peers have lost nearly twice as much. Conversely, tightening by central banks around the world also risks sparking a global recession, a scenario some believe could hurt emerging market currencies and help the dollar.

☆ This tax strategy may offset losses – but investors need to act now or be in for a 'nasty surprise'
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-04 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

According to BNY Mellon's Ben Slavin, it's a key time to sell losing investments in order to cut down on capital gains. "Mutual fund investors are in for quite a nasty surprise," the firm's global head of ETFs told CNBC's "ETF Edge" last week. State Street Global Advisors' Matt Bartolini also sees advantages for investors looking to offset tax losses and stay in the market. "You own a mutual fund that tracks the broad base of U.S. equities. Bartolini said investors can also sell broad-based ETFs and buy back into other ones covering a similar marketplace.

☆ November’s strong jobs report pressures the Fed and could put December rally at risk
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Friday's jobs report showed the economy added 263,000 jobs in November, much more than the 200,000 expected by economists, according to Dow Jones. The Fed has raised interest rates six times since March, the last four at a pace of 75 basis points. A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point. The futures market continued to price expectations for a 50 basis point hike in December. Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, said he expects to see a 50 basis point hike from the Fed.

☆ Markets looking for the next catalyst might latch on to worries about 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Markets could be volatile and in search of a catalyst in the week ahead, as investors consider year-end trades in the lull before the Federal Reserve's December 13-14 policy meeting. Stocks were higher in the past week, with the year's worst performing sectors, communications services and consumer discretionary companies, leading the gains. On the geopolitical front, Arone said investors will watch the Dec. 6 runoff election in Georgia's senate race . Week ahead calendar Monday Earnings: Sumo Logic , Gitlab 9:45 a.m. Services PMI 10:00 a.m. ISM services 10:00 a.m. Initial jobless claims 10:00 a.m. Quarterly services survey Friday 8:30 a.m. PPI 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade

☆ Assessing China: What political unrest means for ETF investors
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Kevin Schmidt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Global markets pulled back earlier this week after protests across China erupted over the country's zero-Covid policy. And with the SPDR S&P China ETF (GXC) down 30% this year, there's a growing debate on whether China makes a good investment now given the political risks. "Where value stocks are international stocks right now, value stocks are Chinese equities. On the flip side, China shares the U.S., like KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) and iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) , have started to move higher and Monday and continued to log gains. Adding context to the notion that China has underperformed, Ahern said that only 2% of the MSCI China Index was composed of tech decade ago.

☆ Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, less than expected, as inflation eases
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The consumer price index rose less than expected in October, an indication that while inflation is still a threat to the U.S. economy, pressures could be starting to cool. A 2.4% decline in used vehicle prices helped bring down the inflation figures. Markets reacted sharply to the report, with futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 800 points. Even with the slowdown in the inflation rate, it still remains well above the Fed's 2% target, and several areas of the report show that the cost of living remains high. Also, fuel oil prices exploded 19.8% higher for the month and are up 68.5% on a 12-month basisThe food index rose 0.6% for the month and 10.9% annually, while energy was up 1.8% and 17.6%, respectively.

☆ How the U.S. midterms could ripple through the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Regardless of the winner, past midterm elections have ushered in a period of positive market performance, something investors would welcome after a year in which the S&P 500 has declined by nearly 21%. The S&P 500 aerospace and defense index (.SPLRCAED) is up nearly 10% this year. HEALTHCAREPharmaceutical and biotech stocks may benefit in a Republican victory, after Democrats recently pushed through a law aimed at lowering prescription drug prices. The S&P 500 healthcare sector (.SPXHC) is down some 7% in 2022, while the S&P 500 pharmaceuticals index (.SPLRCCARG) is up about 1%. Therefore Republican victory in the House or Senate "probably means a legislative standstill, implying an incremental positive for the category," the said.

☆ Instant View: Strong Oct US payrolls do not give Fed much scope to relax
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

ROSS MAYFIELD, INVESTMENT STRATEGY ANALYST, BAIRD, LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY"It's just another data point that proves the labor market is too strong to accommodate what the Fed wants. They're looking for a situation where you don't just have unemployment rate coming up a little bit. You may have it coming up a little bit more." "They may also be looking for lighter jobless claims and a little bit less in the way of average hourly earnings growth. This tightness in the labor market is probably reaching its peak.

☆ Analysis: Recession fears threaten perfect track record of post-midterm U.S. stock gains
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - A potential recession could end a streak of gains for U.S. stocks that has followed every midterm election since World War Two. Since 1946, the S&P 500 (.SPX) has climbed 19 out of 19 times in the 12-month period after midterm elections, according to data from Deutsche Bank. The vote helps clarify the policy outlook regardless of the result because the make-up of Congress is known. November and December rank as the second- and third-best performing months of the year since 1950, with average S&P 500 gains of 1.7% and 1.5%, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Meanwhile, the current inflationary environment makes post-midterm fiscal stimulus less likely, another factor that could limit stock gains.

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