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Many investors think that will only happen if interest rates go to levels just too high for investors to pass up. "You wonder whether they have left it too late" said Mikhail Volodchenko at one of Europe's largest fund managers AXA IM. Reuters Graphics4/LOCAL PROBLEMSIn contrast to the dollar bonds, Turkey's 'local' lira-denominated bonds have had a shocker. Even if the lira is taken out of the equation the bonds are still down around 13% since Erdogan's election win. Reuters Graphics($1 = 0.8920 euros)Reporting by Marc Jones and Canan Sevgili Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Erdogan, Mehmet Şimşek, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Mikhail Volodchenko, Enver Erkan, Yatirim, Treasuries, COVID, Wednesday Erdogan, Simon Lue, Fong, Vontobel, Turkey's, Jeff, Michael Metcalfe, Metcalfe, Marc Jones, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: LONDON, AXA, Reuters, JPMorgan EMBI Global, NATO, Investment, Wednesday, United Arab Emirates, JPMorgan GBI, Street Global Markets, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: Central, Turkish, Nigeria, Argentina, Turkey, U.S, Arab, Swiss, Lira
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. Fed will continue to raise interest rates, strategist saysMehvish Ayub of State Street Global Advisors says that although the U.S. Federal Reserve could breathe "a huge sigh of relief" after the June inflation print, core inflation is still "way above" its target of 2%.
Persons: Mehvish Ayub Organizations: U.S, Fed, State Street Global Advisors, U.S . Federal
Cracks are forming in the UK economy, strategist says
  + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCracks are forming in the UK economy, strategist saysTim Graf, head of macro strategy for EMEA at State Street Global Advisors, discusses the country's gross domestic product figures and the outlook for the Bank of England's monetary policy.
Persons: Tim Graf Organizations: Street Global Advisors, Bank
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) , which has even heavier exposure to Big Tech names, has brought in $5.8 billion of its own. "It's not really the overconcentration in the big names that worries me. It's actually the concentration in the big names compared to their earnings contribution," said Oktay Kavrak, director of communications and strategy at Leverage Shares. Whether you're passive or active, you probably have enough exposure to Nvidia and Apple and Microsoft," said Todd Sohn, ETF strategist at Strategas. There's a whiff of it, a scent of it," Sohn said, pointing out that money market funds attracted more cash than equity funds last week.
Persons: Matthew Bartolini, Bartolini, It's, Oktay Kavrak, Todd Sohn, . Sohn, Kavrak, Sohn, Cathie Wood's Organizations: Vanguard, Big Tech, SPDR, Street Global Advisors, Microsoft, Nvidia, Nasdaq, RSP, Apple, Trust, Technology, Index, Fund, The Vanguard FTSE Locations: SPDR Americas, Europe
“Maybe we’ll see some successes on inflation here and there, but it just won’t be enough,” said Rossiter. European inflation and rate hike hints from the Portugal meeting were also a focus for Tim Graf, head of EMEA macro strategy at State Street Global Advisors. “Recession probability models in the U.S. project a 55-70% to 65-70% probability we’ll get a recession in the next 12 months. Markets imply a 90% probability of an ECB rate hike to 3.75% in July and a peak around 4.0%. That underpinned the euro against the dollar at $1.095, while keeping it near a 15-year peak of 157.98 yen.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kim Kyung, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, , James Rossiter, Rossiter, Martins Kazaks, Tim Graf, they’re, we’ve, it’s, Graf, Masato Kanda, Brent Organizations: Federal, National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Nvidia, Wall Street Journal, Commerce Department, Treasury, European Central Bank, TD Securities, ECB, Street Global Advisors, U.S . Locations: China, Tokyo, Japan, Portugal, , Europe, London, U.S
The bill, signed into law late last year, requires employers to automatically enroll all eligible workers into their retirement plans at a savings rate of 3% of salary. Americans had pension plans, Social Security benefits, and their own savings through plans like the 401(k). Those funds tend to be controlled by large asset managers. But through a process called proxy voting, large asset managers are able to vote on shareholder resolutions on behalf of their clients. Asset managers have “significant influence over company practices,” wrote shareholder advocacy group ShareAction in a recent report.
Persons: New York CNN —, That’s, , Dave Stinnett, What’s, ShareAction, Tesla, Torsten Slok Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, BlackRock, Vanguard Group, Fidelity Investments, Street Global Advisors, Vanguard, Social Security, Social, Social Security Agency, Security, Lawmakers, Blackrock, Fidelity, Boston University School of Law, Harvard Law School, Vanda Research, EV, Apollo Global Management Locations: New York, United States
Last Thursday, the S&P 500 entered a bull market — up 20% from its recent lows. But the market’s strength has been mostly driven by a handful of mega-cap tech stocks, Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta (META), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA). Before the Bell: AI is causing a big market boom right now, but that boom also seems to be concentrated in mega-cap tech stocks. Everything you wanted to know about a bull market but were afraid to askThe US entered a bull market last Thursday, finally. A bear in bull’s clothes: A 20% lift from recent lows is generally accepted as the definition of the start of a bull market.
Persons: , Matt Bartolini, Bell, Pets.com, I’m, They’ve, Adam Turnquist, James Demmert, what’s, Jerome Powell’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Bank of America, Apple, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, SPDR, Street Global Advisors, Meta, US, LPL, Big Tech, Main, Research, Investors, Federal Reserve, P Global Market Intelligence, , European Central Bank, ECB Locations: New York, Europe, SPDR Americas, Big, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong
REUTERS/Jeenah MoonJune 9 (Reuters) - Shareholder support for proxy resolutions on topics including climate change and workforce diversity dropped significantly this spring, analysts said, as tough proposals from activists met with growing political pressure on fund firms' voting. Support for resolutions on social issues fell to 20% this year so far, from 26% in 2022 and 33% in 2021, Georgeson said. He declined to discuss specific companies, but his description fit results like at major U.S. banks that defeated calls to wind down financing for major fossil fuel projects. "These dynamics have led to an overall decline in investor support for environment and social shareholder proposals," Colton said. Both have previously said they vote on a case-by-case basis and noted an increasing number of proposals affect support rates.
Persons: Russell, Georgeson, Kilian Moote, ESG, Sow, Andrew Behar, Ford, Behar, Benjamin Colton, Colton, Scott Shepard, Ross Kerber, Sabrina Valle, Lincoln Organizations: New, REUTERS, Ford, eBay, Exxon, Street Global Advisors, BlackRock, Vanguard, Center for Public Policy Research, IBM, National Center, Thomson Locations: New York City, Manhattan, Weehawken , New Jersey, U.S, China, Houston
That’s a strange place to find a bull market. After a horrible year for Big Tech in 2022, optimism has returned as ChatGPT has made AI the it-thing in Silicon Valley. That brought an end to the bear market that began in January 2022, since a 20% lift from recent lows is generally accepted as the definition of the start of a bull market. However, there is no exact definition — and the current market situation is a bit more nuanced than the typical bull market-bear market binary. The silver liningEntering a bull market lifts investor sentiment, which could propel upward momentum in markets.
Persons: , Sameer Samana, ChatGPT, Tesla, Matt Bartolini, It’s, Apple iPhones, Berkshire Hathaway, James Demmert, , don’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Big Tech, Investors, Apple, Nvidia, SPDR, Street Global Advisors, Meta, Google, Berkshire, Main, Research, Bank of America Locations: New York, United States, Europe, Wells Fargo, Silicon Valley, SPDR Americas, Meta,
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThis is the first dual bear market in stocks and bonds in history: State Streets' Michael AroneMichael Arone, State Street Global Advisors chief investment strategist, and Tim Seymour, Seymour Asset Management CIO, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the dual bear market in stocks and bonds, investing in value and small-cap stocks, and concerning macroeconomic conditions.
Persons: Michael Arone Michael Arone, Tim Seymour Organizations: Street Global Advisors, Seymour, Management
Asia stocks gain on hopes for China stimulus, Fed pause
  + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Xie Yu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
HONG KONG, June 7 (Reuters) - Most Asia-Pacific stocks markets strengthened on Wednesday, as expectations for stimulus from China and overnight gains on Wall Street boosted the mood. On Tuesday, China reportedly asked the biggest banks to cut deposit rates to boost the economy. "Overall, across the board, assets are doing pretty well," said Yuting Shao, macro strategist at State Street Global Markets. The U.S. dollar index slipped by 0.04% to 104.03. Leading cryptocurrency bitcoin was trading at about $27,000, consolidating following a sharp overnight rebound from as low as $25,350.
Persons: Hong, Yuting Shao, Saudi Arabia's, Brent, bitcoin, Solana, Ed Moya, Xie Yu, Kevin Buckland, Robert Birsel Organizations: Nikkei, State Street Global, Federal Reserve, Treasury, U.S, Australian, Saudi, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Asia, Pacific, China, Japan, Tokyo, Tuesday's, Cardano, Polygon, Bitcoin
Fund managers in the latest BofA Global Research survey named shorting the dollar as the market's third "most crowded" trade. The dollar is "in a very messy transition from bull market to a bear market," said Aaron Hurd, senior portfolio manager, currency, at State Street Global Advisors. Hurd expects the dollar to remain buoyant over the very short term, but decline steadily over the next few years. Most investors believe the dollar will likely remain elevated until U.S. data turns decidedly weaker, allowing the Fed to cut rates. "The dollar strength is entirely related to the fact that U.S. data is actually pretty good," said Alvise Marino, a strategist at Credit Suisse.
Persons: Aaron Hurd, Hurd, Alvise Marino, Bipan Rai, Christine Lagarde, Brian Rose, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Leslie Adler Organizations: YORK, Futures Trading Commission, Fund, Research, Street Global Advisors, Bears, Federal Reserve, Fed, Traders, Credit Suisse, Reuters, U.S . Treasury, CIBC, UBS Global Wealth Management, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: U.S, North America, Europe
It's not even midyear yet, but the full gamut of scenarios has been juggled in just five months. World markets have swung from "hard landing" fears of late 2022 to the "soft landing" hopes of the new year and then even unnerving thoughts of "no landing" at all - just before the banking stress hit of March forced them to return to square one. "The economy is more resilient than the market realizes," BlackRock's Chief Executive Larry Fink said on Wednesday, adding more interest rates rises will be necessary but that he saw no "evidence that we're going to have a hard landing." A "soft landing" typically relates to the ability of the Federal Reserve and other central banks to get inflation back close to 2% targets without crashing the economy into a deep contraction with surging unemployment via extreme rate rises. If correct - and not all agree - the prospect of a sustained return to 2% inflation targets would surely turn off the seatbelt sign.
Persons: Larry Fink, Willem Sels, Simona Mocuta, Mocuta, Mike Dolan, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, HSBC Global Private Banking, Nasdaq, Street Global Advisors, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wall, United States, Europe
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNow is a good time to add protection ahead of the next market drawdown, strategist saysAltaf Kassam, EMEA head of investment strategy & research at State Street Global Advisors, says markets have gotten ahead of themselves and that the "grind higher could lead to more of a grind lower," as he discusses the outlook for global markets.
Persons: Altaf Organizations: Street Global Advisors
More retirement plans to offer annuity optionsThe passage of the Secure Act also made it easier for employers to offer annuities as one retirement savings plan option. Starting in the fall, Fidelity will let plan participants convert some of their retirement savings into an immediate income annuity to provide pension-like payments throughout retirement. BlackRock and State Street Global Advisors, two of the largest asset managers, also announced target-date funds with retirement income annuity options. Having an annuity option when you retire is a good thing. Annuity sales hit a record in 2023Annuity sales hit an all-time high in the first quarter of 2023, up roughly 50% from a year ago, according to Limra, an insurance industry trade group.
Persons: Susan Neely, Mark McCombe, Carolyn McClanahan, Todd Giesing Organizations: Fidelity, Fidelity Investments, BlackRock, Street Global Advisors, Planning Partners Locations: Jacksonville , Florida
Debt ceiling optimism helps lift S&P 500, Nasdaq
  + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) rebounded from early declines on news that top U.S. congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy said a deal to raise or suspend the debt ceiling could potentially be reached in time to hold a House vote next week. On Wednesday, President Joe Biden and McCarthy reiterated their aim to strike a deal soon to raise the $31.4 trillion federal debt ceiling and agreed to talk as soon as Sunday. The debt ceiling has drawn attention away from uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.17-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 23 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 77 new highs and 74 new lows.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. Fed needs a catalyst before it starts cutting interest rates, says strategistMehvish Ayub of State Street Global Advisors says "that catalyst could occur in the next six months with all of the risk events that we have on the horizon."
[1/2] Supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan wave flags outside the AK Party headquarters, in Ankara, Turkey May 15, 2023. DEBT: Five-year credit default swaps jumped over 100 basis points from Friday and dollar bonds fell more than 7 cents. STOCKS: Borsa Istanbul issued a market-wide circuit breaker after the benchmark index (.XU100) dropped 6.38% in pre-market trading and was last down 2.7%. PIOTR MATYS, SENIOR FOX ANALYST, IN TOUCH CAPITAL MARKETS, POLAND:"When/if President Erdogan is re-elected, the lira should be trading far more freely. CLEMENS GRAFE AND BASAK EDIZGIL, GOLDMAN SACHS, LONDON:"The (rates and CDS) market dynamics post the initial move will be dependent on the FX market.
NEW YORK, May 12 (Reuters) - A U.S. stocks rally is leaving behind smaller companies, a sign that investors may be bracing for economic turmoil ahead. "Typically in a recession, small caps underperform." Last month it downgraded its view on U.S. small caps from "unfavorable" to "most unfavorable." Some investors are more upbeat about the outlook for small caps, particularly when looking beyond the next several months. One reason is that small caps, being sensitive to economic fluctuations, tend to shine early in a market recovery.
It increased interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, as expected, and signaled it could pause further hikes. The unanimous decision lifted the U.S. central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.00%-5.25% range, the 10th consecutive increase since March 2022. Powell said the Fed still views inflation as too high, and said it was too soon to say the rate hike cycle is over. All of the major S&P 500 sectors ended lower, with energy (.SPNY) and financials (.SPSY) down the most. The S&P 500 posted 24 new 52-week highs and 12 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 64 new highs and 266 new lows.
[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 3, 2023. The dollar held onto earlier losses on the prospect of a rate hiking pause. U.S. Treasury yields yields fell on the Fed's signal that it could pause in its tightening cycle at the next few meetings. Benchmark 10-year notes were down 7.3 basis points to 3.366%, from 3.439% late on Tuesday. The 30-year bond was last down 4.8 basis points to yield 3.6838% while the 2-year note yield was last was down 10.5 basis points to yield 3.8748%.
As luxury stocks make waves overseas, State Street Global Advisors believes investors should consider European ETFs if they want to capture the gains from their outperformance. Bartolini lists price momentum as a third driver of the investor shift. His SPDR Euro Stoxx 50 ETF (FEZ) is considered a broad European ETF. While the fund's top holding is LVMH at 7.29%, according to the company's website, Bartolini contends the shift applies beyond luxury stocks and to lower-end consumer stocks. His firm's website lists French cosmetics company L'Oreal — which is up almost 30% this year — as another one of his fund's major holdings.
Some of the nation's money management giants are tackling the growing concern that more Americans may begin to outlive their retirement savings. Starting in the fall, Fidelity will let plan participants convert some of their retirement savings into an immediate income annuity to provide pension-like payments throughout retirement. Fidelity Investments is the nation's largest provider of 401(k) plans. The financial services firm handles more than 35 million retirement accounts in total. BlackRock and State Street Global Advisors, two of the largest asset managers, also announced target-date funds with retirement income annuity options.
Millions more Americans will have access to pension-like investments in their 401(k) plans following a new push from two of the biggest money managers. State Street Global Advisors, the world’s fourth-largest asset manager, is launching a 401(k) investment product that lets savers convert their retirement nest eggs into a steady income for life via an annuity in their target-date fund.
Analysis: Rates shift gives European currencies fresh legs
  + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
But markets expect another 75 bps of European Central Bank rate hikes, with the deposit rate rising to a peak in the autumn. Expectations for higher official interest rates typically drag money market and government bond yields higher, attracting investor cash into a country and boosting its currency. "An interest rate differential that is flat between the two regions would be equivalent to a euro/dollar move up to around 1.20." TURNAROUNDThe Federal Reserve's relentless rate hikes sent the dollar to 20-year highs last year as other big central banks moved more slowly. "But interestingly last month has seen the pound stronger, because of limited spillovers and declining U.S. and European rate expectations."
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