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☆ US options traders bet on near-term recovery as bank stocks rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Options traders were buying up short-term call options on a variety of names, including the SPDR S&P regional banking ETF (KRE.P) and regional banks such as First Republic Bank (FRC.N) and Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N). "It's early days here but … there is some stability returning in bank share price action," said Michael Purves, chief executive of Tallbacken Capital. "Risk-on appears to be the flavor for regional banks today," said Ophir Gottlieb, chief executive of Los Angeles-based Capital Market Laboratories. Bullish speculation was particularly heavy in options expiring in less than a week, while longer-dated options saw less interest, he said. With some calm returning on Tuesday, options traders' also dialed back expectations for more near-term fireworks from the sector.

☆ Wall Street 'fear gauge' options volume jumps to 4-year high as bank stocks sell off
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX), an options-based indicator dubbed the Wall Street "fear gauge," jumped as much as 6.36 points to 28.97, before closing up 2.19 points at 24.8. VIX options, used by traders to place wagers on whether stock market volatility will rise or fall in coming weeks and months, changed hands in heavy volume, with some 2.36 million contracts traded. Much of the volume on Friday was linked to traders booking profits and adjusting positions to account for the recent market moves, data showed. Betting on upside in the VIX has not been as profitable as many traders had hoped over the past year, despite a steep selloff in the stock market. That gradual pick up in volatility has kept the VIX below the 40 mark, a level associated with high fear in the market.

☆ SVB debacle sparks rush to defensive options on fears of contagion
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A California regulator shut Silicon Valley Bank on Friday and appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation as receiver, according to the agency's statement. With many stocks in the sector falling sharply on Friday, traders rushed in to defensive bets. SVB is battling cash burn due to declining deposits from startups struggling with a venture capital funding drought. While investors had largely shrugged off Silvergate’s troubles as strictly crypto-related, "(SVB Financial Group) was a giant wake-up call about the effects of rising rates and an inverted yield curve," Sosnick said. Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed in New York Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Matthew LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead: Inflation data on deck for markets hit by worries about Fed, banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters) - A critical inflation report next week will test a U.S. stock market already consumed by worries over Federal Reserve hawkishness and potential fallout from the largest bank failure since the financial crisis. A hotter-than-expected consumer price report on Tuesday, however, could reignite fears of jumbo-sized Fed rate hikes like those that rocked markets last year. After a big rebound in January, the benchmark index is now clinging to a 0.6% gain for 2023. The consumer price report is followed the next day by more inflation data, on producer prices. Besides signs of falling inflation, reassurance for investors could come if it became clearer that SVB’s issues were unlikely to spread.

☆ Analysis: Rebounding U.S. dollar a growing headache for investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, March 1 (Reuters) - Investors reeling from the recent volatility in global financial markets are eyeing another potential worry: a rebounding dollar. MSCI’s index for emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) has slipped 8% from its January highs, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index (.MIEM00000CUS) is down 3% from its early February high. "A stronger dollar poses a problem for risk assets," said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments. The dollar's recent rebound has weighed on various risk assetsBecause of the dollar's central role in the global financial system, its fluctuations have widespread repercussions. Whether the dollar continues its rebound will depend in part on investors' perceptions of how much higher the Fed will need to raise interest rates.

☆ Short-dated options trade behind Thursday's U.S. stock market choppiness -Nomura's McElligott
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Some 26,000 Feb 23 put options on S&P 500 e-minis futures with a strike price corresponding to the 4,000 level were bought early in Thursday’s session, McElligott said in a note. In addition, as the market declines the options dealers have to sell increasing amounts of stock futures to remain hedged. Those trades generated some $2 billion in selling pressure and likely contributed to the index’s intraday reversal, McElligot said. Selling pressure could rise to as much as $5 billion if market declines accelerate, he added. Trading in short-dated options contracts, or 0DTE- zero days to expiry contracts - have garnered attention on Wall Street in recent months, drawing record volumes and boosting worries about their role in aggravating intraday stock price swings.

☆ Explainer: The rise of 0DTE stock options and how they could be a risk to markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

WHAT ARE 0DTE OPTIONS? They are options contracts that have less than a day before expiring, though they may have been listed days, weeks or months ago. The daily notional value of trading in 0DTE options has grown to about $1 trillion, according to J.P. Morgan. WHY ARE TRADERS DRAWN TO 0DTE OPTIONS? With 0DTE contracts expiring daily, there is limited scope for positions to build up over time, they said.

☆ Retail investor risk appetite improves with AI stocks leading
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Retail investors had a poor year in 2022, with the average portfolio ending the year down around 35% from all-time highs, Vanda Research previously estimated. However, retail investors have shown renewed interest in the early part of 2023. Meanwhile, shares of early meme stocks GameStop (GME.N) and AMC Entertainment (AMC.N) have pared some losses after last year's tumble. "Investor enthusiasm is also attracting short-sellers that are skeptical about some of the resulting valuations," said Evan Niu, an analyst at Ortex, which tracks real-time short interest data. AI software firm Veritone (VERI.O), SoundHound and BigBear.ai also show a pick up in short interest, Ortex data showed.

Biden, who earlier last year signed into law a 1% tax on corporate stock buybacks, used his speech to call for that to be quadrupled, as well as renew his calls for higher taxes on billionaires. If companies sense such a tax is imminent, it might spur them to speed up buybacks and eventually shift toward paying dividends instead. "If this tax encourages companies to raise their dividends instead of buying back shares, all in all, it's not a bad thing." Other topics were also watched by investors, particularly remarks on China, a key area of interest for investors. BUYBACKS & BILLIONAIRESCorporate stock buybacks, where public companies buy back their own shares, thereby juicing the price of the shares as a way to return cash to shareholders, have grabbed headlines this year.

"If this tax encourages companies to raise their dividends instead of buying back shares, all in all, it's not a bad thing." Other topics will be watched by investors, particularly remarks on China, a key area of interest for investors. BUYBACKS & BILLIONAIRESCorporate stock buybacks, where public companies buy back their own shares, thereby juicing the price of the shares, as a way to return cash to shareholders, have grabbed headlines this year. S&P 500 companies' stock buybacks are expected to total $220 billion for the fourth quarter of 2022, with 2023 set to be the first fiscal year with over $1 trillion in buybacks, according to data from S&P Dow Jones Indices. Biden is also expected to call for another narrow tax increase: a "billionaire minimum tax" aimed at taxing the unrealized capital gains from assets such as stocks, bonds, or privately held companies of high-net-worth individuals.

Among these are equities’ positive January performance, a "golden cross" chart pattern on the S&P 500 and more stocks making new highs rather than new lows. Such signals are far from the only indicators market participants use to make investment decisions, and they are not foolproof. JANUARY JUMPThe S&P 500 rose 6.2% in January, driven in part by hopes that the Fed will be able to contain surging inflation without badly damaging the economy. GOLDEN CROSSMeanwhile, chart watchers noted that the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average rose above its 200-day moving average on Thursday, a pattern known as a golden cross. However, when a golden cross has appeared as the 200-day moving average is declining - as it is now - the average 12-month return for the S&P 500 jumps to 16.8%.

☆ Analysis: Hawkish Fed could hobble volatility funds’ stock buying spree
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500’s (.SPX) 6.2% surge in January has been accompanied by a drop in measures of volatility across the board. The drop in market gyrations has triggered a buy-signal for certain computer-driven strategies including volatility control funds, risk parity funds and Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). Volatility control funds have raised their equity allocation to a nine-month high of 57.7%, strategists at Deutsche Bank wrote on Friday. Grinacoff, of BNP Paribas, estimates volatility control funds have assets of about $275 billion, while CTAs, not all of which have a volatility control strategy, as a group have $800 billion allocated across strategies. "Market volatility measured by VIX remains stuck above the 18 level, which is its long-term average.

☆ Dollar holds gains after U.S. data; traders eye Fed next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File PhotoNEW YORK, Jan 27 (Reuters) - The dollar clung to modest gains against the euro on Friday after data showed falling U.S. consumer spending and cooling inflation, and as investors awaited a slew of central bank meetings next week. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, dropped 0.2% last month, the Commerce Department said on Friday. Data for November was revised lower to show spending slipping 0.1% instead of gaining 0.1% as previously reported. Data showed consumer price inflation in Japan's capital accelerated to a nearly 42-year peak this month, piling pressure on the BOJ to step away from stimulus. Attention now turns to a slew of central bank policy decisions, with the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England (BoE) all due to make rate decisions next week as they judge what policy adjustments may be required in their battle with rampant inflation against a tough global economic backdrop.

☆ Dollar eases as traders look to central banks for cues
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationNEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped against the euro on Wednesday, but its losses were capped as traders were hesitant to make any big bets ahead of next week's central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. "Trading ranges remain remarkably compressed ahead of next week's central bank meetings," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay. Data on Tuesday showed euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January. In contrast, U.S. business activity contracted for the seventh straight month in January, data showed on Tuesday, though the downturn moderated across manufacturing and services for the first time since September. The dollar was down 0.42% against the yen , at 129.615 yen per dollar, having hit a near eight-month low of 127.215 on Jan. 16.

☆ Dollar edges down as traders look to central banks for cues
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationNEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The dollar edged down against the euro on Wednesday in subdued trading as investors were hesitant to make any big bets ahead of next week's central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. "Trading ranges remain remarkably compressed ahead of next week's central bank meetings," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay. Data on Tuesday showed euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January. Expectations of further rate increases by the European Central Bank have also supported the euro. In contrast, U.S. business activity contracted for the seventh-straight month in January, data showed on Tuesday, though the downturn moderated across manufacturing and services for the first time since September.

NEW YORK, Jan 23 (Reuters) - The dollar edged lower against the euro on Monday, as the common currency found support from European Central Bank officials' comments signalling additional jumbo interest rate rises in Europe. The euro reached as high as $1.0927 , to trade at its highest level since April last year, before paring gains to trade up 0.1 % at $1.0865. A Reuters survey of analysts also favoured hikes of 50 basis points at the next two meetings and an eventual rate peak of 3.25%, from the current rate of 2%. "Really what's driving things is central bank policy divergence," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington. So when you weigh the outlook for central bank policy, it depicts the dollar at a disadvantage, given market bets on the Fed moving more slowly than its counterparts abroad," Manimbo said.

They projected their key policy rate would top out at between 5.00% and 5.25% this year, up from a current 4.25%-4.50% rate. Market pricing indicates investors remain wedded to a more dovish view, with the policy rate peaking below 5% around mid-June before falling in the second half of the year. Rieder believes policymakers will raise rates by 25 basis points at the next two meetings, with further 25 basis point increases possible, depending on data. Investors in short-term options had priced in a much sharper move of about 2% going into Thursday's CPI print, according to data from market maker Optiver. Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO's North American economist, believes the Fed is likely to raise rates just two more times this year before pausing.

☆ Bed Bath & Beyond surges for third day in meme-stock rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Medha Singh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A person exits a Bed Bath & Beyond store in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., June 29, 2022. Among the top three companies traded on Fidelity's retail platform, Bed Bath & Beyond jumped 69% during the session and then another 20% after the bell. On Tuesday, Bed Bath & Beyond said it would lay off more employees to cut costs after reporting a bigger-than-expected quarterly loss. The rise and fall of Bed Bath & BeyondShort interest in Bed Bath & Beyond is $82.7 million, or 52.07% of its free float, analytics firm S3 Partners said in a research note. Bed Bath & Beyond's options volume was running nine times what is typical, based on recent trading, according to Trade Alert data.

☆ Analysis: With banks' results on tap, options traders prepare for volatility
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Brian SnyderNEW YORK, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Options traders are bracing for volatility in U.S. bank shares days ahead of an earnings season many believe will bring lower profits and reflect worries over an expected recession. The trade would be profitable if the ETF’s shares slipped below $33 by mid-February, a 6% decline from current levels. The S&P 500 bank index (.SPXBK) fell 21.6% last year, compared to a compared to a 19.4% decline for the S&P 500 as a whole. Options on big bank stocks, on average, are pricing the largest post-earnings moves in the last two years, an analysis by Susquehanna International Group showed. "The trading bias in the options heading into big bank earnings has been buying volatility and protecting positions," said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group.

☆ Tesla short sellers pile on pressure after most profitable trade in 2022
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Fresh off their most profitable year ever, short sellers targeting Tesla Inc's (TSLA.O) stock are heaping more pressure on the electric vehicle maker led by Elon Musk. Tesla short interest stands at $8.76 billion, or nearly 3% of the share float, down from $14 billion a month ago, a decline reflecting the steep drop in Tesla's stock price. "As the stock price hits a floor or expected value for short sellers, they will start trading positions to realize their profits. In 2022, Tesla was the most profitable short trade in the U.S. market, earning $15.85 billion in paper profits for investors, according to S3 data. That was the best year ever for Tesla short sellers, but they have recouped only about a quarter of the $60 billion in estimated losses from 2010 to 2021.

☆ Inflation, recession and earnings among factors to drive U.S. stocks in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 (.SPX) is down nearly 20% year-to-date with only a few trading days left in 2022, on pace for its biggest calendar-year drop since 2008. S&P 500 timeline in 2022Inflation, and the Fed's degree of aggressiveness in trying to contain it, will likely remain a critical factor driving equity performance as 2023 gets under way. Recessions tend to hit stocks hard, with the S&P 500 falling an average of 29% during recessions since World War Two, according to Truist Advisory Services. Investors are also concerned that corporate earnings estimates may not have fully factored in a potential slowdown, leaving more downside for stocks. Consensus analyst estimates project S&P 500 earnings to rise 4.4% in 2023, according to Refinitiv IBES.

☆ Yen retreats after BOJ policy tweak sparked surge
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The BOJ decided to change its "yield curve control" policy on Tuesday even as it kept broad policy settings unchanged. It is letting 10-year yields move 50 basis points either side of its 0% target, wider than the previous 25-basis-point band. On Wednesday, the dollar was 0.4% higher against the yen , having plunged 3.8% in the previous session, its largest one-day drop against the Japanese currency in 24 years. The BOJ, long preoccupied with reviving price growth to avert a risk of deflation, has been an outlier among central banks this year. It has kept interest rates negative while other central banks have hiked hard to tame inflation and bolster domestic currencies against the U.S. dollar.

☆ Yen eases after BOJ policy tweak sparked surge
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, Dec 21 (Reuters) - The yen eased in a choppy session on Wednesday, ceding some of the ground gained the previous day when a surprise policy tweak by the Bank of Japan lifted the Japanese currency by 4% against the dollar. The BOJ decided to change its "yield curve control" policy on Tuesday even as it kept broad policy settings unchanged. It is letting 10-year yields move 50 basis points either side of its 0% target, wider than the previous 25 basis point band. On Wednesday, the dollar was 0.2% higher against the yen , having plunged 3.8% in the previous session, its largest one day drop against the Japanese currency in 24 years. I don't think we're going to 150 (yen) anytime soon," Chandler said.

☆ Dollar slips vs euro on upbeat German business morale data
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/IllustrationNEW YORK, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The dollar edged down against the euro as upbeat German business morale data supported the common currency, while a modest improvement in investors' appetite for riskier currencies weighed on the safe-haven dollar. German business morale rose more than expected in December as the outlook for Europe's largest economy improved despite the energy crisis and high inflation, a survey showed on Monday. The euro rose 0.2 % to $ 1.06085 , not far from the six-month high of $1.0737 touched last week. "I think the dollar is generally softer on slightly higher risk-on trading," said John Doyle, vice president of dealing and trading at Monex USA.

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