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"If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," Logan said. The Dallas Fed president said the economy has been stronger than she had expected, as has been the labor market, and that inflation was still too high despite progress in lowering it. But because Logan ran the New York Fed's bond portfolio for years before she took the top job at the Dallas Fed, her views on what's driving long-term rates higher could carry considerable weight as policymakers weigh their next moves. "The expectation of lower Federal Reserve asset holdings over time implies that other investors will need to hold more long-duration securities, which appears to be one factor among the many contributing to higher term premiums," Logan said. Figuring out how much of the higher long-term rates is due to higher term premiums is complex, she added.

Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Mary Daly, Julia Coronado, Lorie, she's, Krishna Guha, Guha, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, Kansas City, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Federal Reserve, National Association for Business Economics, Market, San Francisco Fed, Evercore ISI, Dallas Fed, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, York

☆ The Fed is at odds with itself. That’s a feature, not a bug
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-08 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

So, Fed officials are divided, but it doesn’t really matter. Fed officials are still people, and as the saying goes, opinions are like bellybuttons in that everyone’s got one. Fed officials in that committee with voting power have the option to dissent, but it’s only happened twice this cycle. This year’s voters, which are Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, will be rotated out next year. Up NextMonday: Fed officials Lorie Logan, Michael Barr and Phillip Jefferson deliver remarks.

Persons: Mary Daly, Michelle Bowman, ”, Biden, That’s, Michael Feroli, everyone’s, “ It’s, ” Feroli, Esther George, Ed Al, Hussainy, JPMorgan’s Feroli, It’s, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Neel Kashkari, Logan, Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, San Francisco Fed’s Daly, – CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald, Michael Barr, Phillip Jefferson, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Fed, Market Committee, Kansas City, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Governors, New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Chicago Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Minneapolis Fed, San Francisco, Treasury, PepsiCo, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Delta, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, The University of Michigan Locations: San, Kansas, Columbia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, San Francisco, Walgreens

☆ Should you still push kids to get a degree? Yes, experts say: 'There's not a better substitute for college'
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-07 | by ( Kamaron Mcnair | In Kamaronmcnair | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The data in support of a college education is strong. So it can be increasingly difficult to determine if a college education is worth it. For many, a college degree is 'an insurance policy'With the statistical outcomes for college graduates so strong, it can be jarring for parents to face a child who tells them they don't want to go. "For many people, [a bachelor's degree] is an insurance policy." 'Look at college as a consumer'Earning your bachelor's degree is often expensive, which scares off a lot of students.

Persons: Tim Davis, Davis, it's, Erika Katz, Katz, —, they're Organizations: College, San Francisco Fed, National Center for Education Statistics, University of Virginia, CNBC, Edge Research, Gates Foundation

☆ Wall Street will seek confirmation inflation is easing in the week ahead after Friday's jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A soft inflation reading in the week ahead after Friday's jobs report could be the signal stocks need to turn around after their recent carnage from rising bond yields. Some market participants are hopeful stocks can start to rebound from their recent lows if next week's inflation reports confirm price pressures easing. The producer price index comes out Wednesday, while the consumer price index is due out Thursday. The September consumer price index that's due out Thursday is expected to show easing inflation. Export Price Index (September) 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment preliminary (October) Earnings: BlackRock , UnitedHealth Group , The PNC Financial Services Group , JPMorgan Chase , W ells Fargo , Citigroup

Persons: Stocks, Jim Lebenthal, Lebenthal, Dow Jones, it's, Mary Daly, we'll, Hogan, Wells, BlackRock, Price, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones Industrial, Cerity Partners, CPI, PPI, Treasury, Dow, San Francisco Fed, Riley, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, UnitedHealth, PepsiCo, Treasury Budget, Delta Air Lines, Walgreens, Alliance, Price, UnitedHealth Group, PNC Financial Services Group, JPMorgan Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Michigan

☆ Bond rout won't end Fed balance sheet cuts, but endgame bubbling into view
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Since June 2022, the Fed has allowed more than $1 trillion of bonds to mature from its portfolio, including roughly $840 billion of Treasuries. QT drains liquidity from the banking system, reducing bank reserves parked at the Fed and cash stashed in its reverse repo facility. Others believe money market rates will start to move up in ways suggesting the system is short of cash. A New York Fed report in April projected an end to QT around the middle of 2025. A survey of major banks by the New York Fed released in August eyed an end to QT in mid-2024.

Persons: it's, ”, Kathy Bostjancic, Bostjancic, Goldman Sachs, Loretta Mester, “, Austan Goolsbee, Mary Daly, Michael Barr, Michael Cloherty, Mark Cabana, ” Cabana, Cabana, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Goldman Sachs, Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, Chicago Fed, San Francisco Fed, UBS, Bank Policy Institute, New York Fed, Bank of America, Daily, Derby, Thomson Locations: Silicon, Washington

☆ Morning Bid: Oil soothes but jobs dictate
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. crude oil has recoiled almost 9% this week and prices have lost almost 14% peak-to-trough since last Thursday's high above $95 per barrel. The year-on-year oil price is now falling again and tracking losses of 5%. Copper prices fell to their lowest of the year on Thursday and core commodity indexes are back at August levels. All of which sees U.S. bond yields retain an uneasy calm into the jobs numbers. Implied rates from Fed futures markets pulled back the chances of another hike in the cycle to less than 50%.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Mike Dolan, Mary Daly, Kevin McCarthy, Donald Trump, Jim Jordan, Janet Yellen's, Christopher Waller, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, ADP, San Francisco Fed, Treasury, St, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Tesla, Exxon Mobil, Natural Resources, Federal Reserve, Challenger, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Morocco, Canada

The Securities and Exchange Commission said Thursday it is seeking a court order that would compel Elon Musk to testify as part of an investigation into his purchase of Twitter, now called X. But “two days before his scheduled testimony, Musk abruptly notified the SEC staff that he would not appear,” said the agency’s filing. “Musk attempted to justify his refusal to comply with the subpoena by raising, for the first time, several spurious objections, including an objection to San Francisco as an appropriate testimony location.”X is based in San Francisco. The SEC said on Sept. 24, Musk’s lawyers responded by saying Musk would not appear for testimony in any location. A hearing on the matter is tentatively scheduled for Nov. 9 in San Francisco.

Persons: Elon Musk, Musk, ”, “ Musk, San, Alex Spiro, Andrew Carter, Musk's, Carter, Walter Isaacson Organizations: Securities, Exchange Commission, Twitter, SEC, District Locations: San Francisco federal, San Francisco, New York, Oklahoma, U.S, Fort Worth , Texas, “

☆ Wall St ends down slightly; investors await Friday's payrolls
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Friday's monthly payrolls report could be the week's most important economic news, however, investors remained concerned about whether the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer. Stocks ended well off their weakest levels of the session, and strategists noted the S&P 500 was holding above its 200-day moving average, currently at around 4,206. After recent market weakness, investors are keen for third-quarter earnings reports to kick off mid-month. S&P 500 company earnings overall are expected to have risen 1.6% year-over-year for the quarter, according to LSEG IBES data. The S&P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and 39 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 24 new highs and 330 new lows.

Persons: Stocks, Mary Daly, Peter Cardillo, Brendan McDermid, Caroline Valetkevitch, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Shounak Dasgupta, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Companies, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Benchmark U.S, Treasury, Spartan Capital Securities, San Francisco Fed Bank, Economic, of New, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow Jones, Dell Technologies, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York, of New York, U.S, New York City, Bengaluru

☆ San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly: The need for further Fed tightening has diminished
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSan Francisco Fed President Mary Daly: The need for further Fed tightening has diminishedCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Halftime Report' to discuss the latest statement from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly covering monetary policy and the status of inflation.

Persons: Mary Daly, Steve Liesman Organizations: San, Fed, San Francisco Fed

☆ The US economy is extremely fragile right now and could tip into a recession within months, according to a new model
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

A new Bloomberg model shows a better-than-50% chance a recession could begin this year. According to Anna Wong and Tom Orlik, two chief economists at Bloomberg Economics, the model works "fairly well" at matching previous calls of recession. AdvertisementAdvertisementAccording to the model, the US could declare a recession in 2024 following a possible economic dip in the last months of 2023. Other factors not out of the woodsAnd then there are the maybes: the United Auto Workers strike and a potential government shutdown. If the model is correct, there is already a good chance a recession may hit.

Persons: —, Anna Wong, Tom Orlik, Mario Tama, Taylor Swift, Jeff Kravitz, Debbie Downer, Paul Sancya, Kevin McCarthy, It'll Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Bloomberg Economics, San Francisco Fed, United Auto Workers, Victoria Hall, Ford Michigan Assembly Plant, GM, Ford, AP Locations: Santa Clara , California, Wayne, Mich

We're buying 75 shares of Oracle (ORCL) at roughly $107.96 each. Following Thursday's trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 650 shares of ORCL, increasing its weighting to 2.54% from 2.26%. That's why we are buying more Oracle — bulking up our position size into the stock's recent weakness. Oracle stock pulled back in September after the company missed on quarterly revenue estimates and provided an outlook that failed to live up to lofty expectations. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: Jim Cramer's, Mary Daly, Daly, Safra Catz, Catz, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Oracle, ORCL, San Francisco Fed, Treasury, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Manhattan, New York City

☆ Morning Bid: Nervy bond bounce on soft jobs and oil
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. Although both oil and bond yields calmed somewhat overnight, U.S. crude plunged by more than $5 per barrel on Wednesday. The tentative bond bid and shifting interest rate picture stopped the rot in stock markets too, with Wall St stocks rallying on Wednesday and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) staging its biggest daily gain since August. But in a sign of the nervousness, European stock markets stalled again and Wall St futures were back in the red. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Kevin McCarthy, Michael Barr, Mary Daly, Thomas Barkin, Loretta Mester, Lamb Weston, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Wall, Metro Bank, U.S, Federal, San Francisco Fed, Richmond Fed, Cleveland Fed, Treasury, Brands, Constellation Brands, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wall, York

The filing Thursday in San Francisco federal court seeks a judge’s order requiring Musk to testify, alleging “blatant refusal to comply” with an earlier SEC subpoena. Musk testified twice as part of the SEC’s investigation in July 2022, according to the agency. The SEC served Musk with a subpoena to testify again in the matter in May 2023, according to the court filing. The current subpoena at issue seeks evidence and testimony from Musk that the SEC does not yet possess, the agency said. The SEC attempted to negotiate with Musk to find alternative dates later this fall, according to court documents.

Persons: Elon Musk, Musk, —, “, Alex Spiro, ”, Spiro, Walter Isaacson’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, US Securities and Exchange Commission, Twitter, SEC, Inc Locations: New York, San Francisco federal

☆ This bank ended the third quarter with a bang, boosting its CD yield to 5.6%
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Banks that hiked yields in the final stretch of the third quarter include Bread Financial , which is now offering an annual percentage yield of 5.6% for a 1-year CD. One basis point equals one-hundredth of a percentage point. "We expect at least one more guide up from bank management teams on deposit betas as the Fed keeps rates higher for longer," wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Betsy Graseck. Those factors include competition from money market funds for depositors' dollars, and lower-yielding CDs repricing at higher rates, she added. The San Francisco Fed forecast that the last of these dollars would be depleted during the third quarter of 2023.

Persons: Stephens, Vincent Caintic, Banks, Ally Financial, Morgan Stanley, Betsy Graseck, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bread, Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of San, San Francisco Fed Locations: Stephens, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

"It's not going to be a matter of struggling to get the inflation rate higher. While higher interest rates are good news for savers, businesses and consumers have become used to paying nothing for money over the past 15 years. Reuters GraphicsREADING YIELDSA market-based Fed model that breaks down the 10-year Treasury yield into its components provides further insight into investors' thinking. This rise in term premium, which spent much of the last decade below zero, reflects high levels of uncertainty about economic outlook and monetary policy, investors said. While the market appears to be confident in its belief in the end of the era of zero interest rates, it is far less so about the economy's actual likely path.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Greg Whiteley, It's, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Adrian, Crump, Emanuel Moench, John Velis, Leslie Falconio, BNY's Velis, Velis, Paritosh Bansal, Anna Driver 私 Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, York Fed, Minneapolis, Moench, Frankfurt School of Finance, Management, Americas, BNY Mellon, UBS Global Wealth Management, San, San Francisco Fed Locations: Washington ,, U.S, DoubleLine, San Francisco

☆ What the plastic surgery industry can tell us about the path of the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Plastic surgery demand may be one signal. Anyone looking for more under-the-radar economic signals can add plastic surgery to the list. The plastic bubble popBut within the plastic surgery industry, the pullback in demand is undeniable, particularly considering how hot business was through 2021. "It's something that really took most of us by surprise," he said of the pandemic's plastic surgery boom. And media attention … that influences discretionary purchases and plastic surgery.

Persons: —, Dr, Steven Williams, tucks, Williams, Yaniv, Konchitchki, COVID hospitalizations, There's, it's Organizations: Service, American Society of Plastic Surgeons, UC Berkeley, Federal Reserve, Aesthetic Society, San Francisco Fed Locations: rhinoplasties, Europe, United States

☆ Yelp sues Texas to defend its labeling of crisis pregnancy centers
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Brian Fung | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington CNN —Yelp is suing Texas to ensure it can continue to tell users that crisis pregnancy centers listed on its site do not provide abortions or abortion referrals, opening a new front in the fight between states and the tech industry over abortion restrictions. Yelp said it currently applies the following label to crisis pregnancy center listings: “This is a Crisis Pregnancy Center. Crisis Pregnancy Centers do not offer abortions or referrals to abortion providers.”Yelp’s complaint said its labels are based on a manual evaluation of “thousands of business pages” on its site and reflect truthful statements. But Paxton’s impending lawsuit threatens to silence Yelp and infringe on the company’s First Amendment rights, the complaint alleges. Yelp argues that its labels for crisis pregnancy centers are not deceptive and that Paxton himself had publicly commended the disclosures as “accurate” in a February press release.

Persons: Washington CNN — Yelp, Yelp, Ken Paxton preemptively, Roe, Wade, Paxton Organizations: Washington CNN, Democratic, Federal Trade Commission Locations: Texas, San Francisco federal

☆ The US consumer is starting to crack
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

AdvertisementAdvertisementEven as interest rates skyrocketed over the past 18 months, a good job market and strong consumer spending kept the US economy moving. However, there are growing signs that the strength of the US consumer is starting to crack. Earlier this month, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, as expected. At the start of the rate increase, borrowers, like existing homeowners, had low mortgage interest rates locked in. Even dollar stores are starting to feel the pressure of more measured spending after initially benefitting from inflation as wealthier people looked for more value.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley, It'll, Jerome Powell, Powell, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, United Auto Workers, National Association of Business Economics, Bank of America, Conference Board, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Costco Locations: Michigan

☆ America's $1 trillion credit card bill really isn't as bad as it seems
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

US credit card debt hit $1 trillion for the first time ever this year. And with those considerations, the hefty credit card balance in the US actually isn't much of a problem. According to Michele Raneri, the vice president of financial services research at Transunion, credit card utilization has stayed around 22%. Already, the delinquency rate on loans issued in 2023 is lower than the delinquency rate on loans issued in 2021 and 2022. That suggests credit card delinquencies will soon peak around the fourth quarter of this year before declining, he estimated.

Persons: That's, Mark Zandi, They've, Zandi, Michele Raneri, they've, Raneri, Gen Zers, Gen Z, LendingTree, Wells Fargo Organizations: Economists, Service, San Francisco Fed, stoke, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wall, Silicon

"I expect rates may have to stay higher, and for longer, than previous projections had suggested," said Collins. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are scheduled to make remarks later on Friday as the Fed's "blackout" period on post-meeting policy comments lifted. The central bank's decision to hold its benchmark overnight interest rate steady this week was unanimous. Collins does not currently have a vote on rate policy under a Fed system that rotates votes among the 12 reserve bank presidents year by year. New projections issued at the end of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday showed 12 of 19 Fed officials expect one additional quarter point rate increase this year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Michelle Bowman, Susan Collins, Collins, Mary Daly, Neel Kashkari, Bowman, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, . Federal, Independent Community Bankers of, Maine Bankers Association, Boston, Fed, San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Thomson Locations: Independent Community Bankers of Colorado

☆ Morning Bid: Edgy market calm after worst day of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. World stocks captured by MSCI's all-country index (.MIWD0000PUS) recorded their worst day of the year so far - dropping 1.69%. The yen fell back again but the dollar/yen rate remained below Thursday's 2023 high of 148.45. The pound hit its lowest level since March and 10-year British gilt yields fell to their lowest level since July. Elsewhere, oil prices nudged higher again on Friday as concerns that a Russian ban on fuel exports could tighten global.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Mike Dolan Punch, Rupert Murdoch, Lisa Cook, Susan Collins, Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Treasury, Sterling, of, Activision Blizzard, Markets Authority, Ubisoft, Cisco Systems, Cisco, Fox Corp, News Corp, JPMorgan, Federal Reserve, Boston, Minneapolis Fed, San Francisco Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Australia, Britain, United States, India

☆ Poland investigates OpenAI over privacy concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A keyboard is placed in front of a displayed OpenAI logo in this illustration taken February 21, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsCompanies Openai LLC FollowMicrosoft Corp FollowWARSAW, Sept 21 (Reuters) - A Polish watchdog is investigating Microsoft-backed (MSFT.O) OpenAI over a complaint that its ChatGPT chatbot breaks European Union data protection laws known as the GDPR, it said. OpenAI has already faced at least its second class action lawsuit in San Francisco federal court for allegedly breaking privacy laws. "The case concerns the violation of many provisions on the protection of personal data, so we will ask Open AI to answer a number of questions," said Jan Nowak, President of Poland's Personal Data Protection Office (UODO). The complainant said they were unable to find out which of their personal data was processed by the company, and received evasive and misleading answers to questions.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, OpenAI, Jan Nowak, UODO, ChatGPT, Alan Charlish, Jan Harvey Organizations: REUTERS, Microsoft, Google, Thomson Locations: WARSAW, San Francisco federal

☆ George R. R. Martin, Jodi Picoult and other famous writers join Authors Guild in class action lawsuit against OpenAI
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Jennifer Korn | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —A group of famous fiction writers joined the Authors Guild in filing a class action suit against OpenAI on Wednesday, alleging the company’s technology is illegally using their copyrighted work. Martin, Jodi Picoult, John Grisham and Jonathan Franzen are among the 17 prominent authors who joined the suit led by the Authors Guild, a professional organization that protects writers’ rights. “Generative AI threatens to decimate the author profession,” the Authors Guild wrote in a press release Wednesday. Two other authors sued OpenAI in June over the company’s alleged misuse of their works to train ChatGPT. Authors should have the right to decide when their works are used to ‘train’ AI,” author Jonathan Franzen said in the release on Wednesday.

Persons: OpenAI, George R.R, Martin, Jodi Picoult, John Grisham, Jonathan Franzen, Mary Rasenberger, “, Sarah Silverman, Silverman –, ” Sam Altman, Rasenberger, James Patterson, Roxane Gay, Margaret Atwood —, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, OpenAI, Authors, of, CNN, Amazon, Meta, San, Microsoft Locations: New York, Southern, of New York, San Francisco federal

☆ Here are 6 key economic signals for markets to follow as the Fed gets ready to make its next policy move
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There are six key economic indicators for markets to gauge the health of the US economy. The US is likely headed for a mild recession, according to one chief investment officer. Markets are currently pricing in a 99% chance the Fed will choose to keep interest rates unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Small business optimism is waningSmall business optimism slumped over the past month to 91.3, down 0.6 points from July's reading. But real wages of Americans have actually fallen 0.5% over the past month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which could spell trouble for the US consumer.

Persons: Brent Schutte, Schutte Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Fed, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Cleveland Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, San Francisco Fed, University of Michigan's Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ New economic rules shatter US bonds’ crystal ball
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Yield curve “inversions” belong to the latter group. At first sight, they are right: Yield curve inversions have been a consistent predictor of future downturns. Yield curve inversions take place when the yield on short-dated government debt climbs higher than that on longer-term bonds. Lower long-dated bond yields are seen as a sign that investors predict lower rates due to an economic downturn. As such, yield curve inversions have become a popular forward indicator of economic recessions.

Persons: Treasuries, There’s, Eugene F, Fama, Kenneth R, joblessness, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Francesco Guerrera, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, San Francisco Federal Reserve, Fed, New York Fed, Morgan Stanley U.S, Treasury, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: United States, U.S, Covid

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