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☆ Slower US job, wage gains expected in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Nevertheless, the Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is expected to still show the labor market remaining tight. PROGRESS ON INFLATIONBut the overall labor market remains upbeat, with first time applications for state unemployment benefits hovering at very low levels. Slowing wage inflation is corroborated by other measures like the Atlanta Fed's wage tracker, which has come off its peaks. Financial markets see a nearly 70% chance of the Fed keeping its policy rate unchanged at its June 13-14 meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the employment report, did not record the work stoppage in its May strike report.

Persons: Bill Adams, Brian Bethune, Nancy Vanden Houten, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Comerica Bank, Data, Labor Department, Atlanta, Boston College, Fed, Writers Guild of America, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Oxford Economics, Thomson Locations: y WASHINGTON, Dallas, New York

☆ US weekly jobless claims rise slightly; labor market defies recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"Labor market conditions are still tight," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York. "While we expect the Fed to leave rates steady at its upcoming meeting, a more sustained loosening of labor market conditions is needed to keep rate hikes permanently off the table." Unadjusted claims increased by 5,296 to 207,941 last week, with notable rises in New York, Ohio and Illinois. While the labor market continues to surprise with strength, manufacturing is in a downward spiral. The Fed's "Beige Book" report on Wednesday described the labor market as having "continued to be strong" in May, but noted that "many contacts" were "fully staffed."

Persons: Nancy Vanden Houten, Unadjusted, nonfarm payrolls, payrolls, Christopher Rupkey, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: PMI, Federal Reserve, Fed, Labor, Oxford Economics, Labor Department, Reuters, Institute for Supply Management, Treasury, U.S, Thomson Locations: May WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, New York , Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts

☆ U.S. private payrolls beat expectations in May-ADP
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, June 1 (Reuters) - U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected in May, suggesting that the labor market was slowing only gradually, which could result in the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates elevated for some time. Private payrolls increased by 278,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment report showed on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 170,000. According to a Reuters survey of economists, private payrolls likely increased by 165,000 jobs in May. With further gains anticipated in government employment, total nonfarm payrolls are forecast to have risen by 190,000 jobs last month after advancing 253,000 in April.

Persons: payrolls, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve, ADP, Reuters, Fed, Stanford Digital Economy, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Thomson Locations: U.S

LONDON/DUBAI, June 1 (Reuters) - OPEC and its allies are unlikely to deepen supply cuts at their ministerial meeting on Sunday despite a fall in oil prices toward $70 per barrel, four sources from the alliance told Reuters. It brought total output cuts to 3.66 million bpd, or about 4% of global consumption. In March 2020, it abandoned production quotas altogether, launching a Saudi-Russian price war at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic that sent oil prices 25% lower. It quickly re-established quotas with its biggest output cut to date of about 10 million bpd, agreed in April, 2020. OPEC has said it expects oil demand growth to reach 2.33 million bpd this year as non-OPEC supplies grow by 1.4 million bpd.

Persons: Brent, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Alexander Novak, Goldman Sachs, Ahmad Ghaddar, Alex Lawler, Rowena Edwards, Maha El, Simon Webb, Barbara Lewis Organizations: LONDON, OPEC, Reuters, Organization of, Petroleum, West, Brent, Saudi Energy, Saudi, HSBC, Thomson Locations: DUBAI, Russia, West African, Nigeria, Angola, Kurdistan Region, Iraq, Vienna, Russian, China, 2H23, OPEC, London, Maha El Dahan, Dubai, Moscow

☆ South Korea April factory output falls, retail sales drop most in five months
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SEOUL, May 31 (Reuters) - South Korea's factory production and retail sales dropped in April, official data showed on Wednesday, indicating another tough quarter ahead after the economy narrowly averted a recession in the first quarter. The country's factory output in April fell 1.2% from March, on a seasonally adjusted basis, coming in slightly softer than a 1.6% loss tipped in a Reuters survey. In March, output rose by 5.3% from February, which was the fastest gain since June 2020, according to Statistics Korea. The all-industry output index, which includes the manufacturing as well as services sectors, fell 1.4% in April over a month, marking the first monthly decline since November and the biggest drop in 14 months. On the consumption side, retail sales dropped 2.3% from a month earlier, after a 0.1% gain in the previous month, marking the first monthly fall since January and the biggest in five months.

Persons: Jihoon Lee, Christian Schmollinger, Stephen Coates Organizations: Statistics Korea, Thomson Locations: SEOUL

☆ Slower US job growth expected in April; unemployment rate seen rising to 3.6%
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The unemployment rate is forecast to have risen to a still historically low 3.6%. "The labor market is slowly bending, but not breaking," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. "There is continued resilience in the labor market right now, but the trend is one that is continuing to see a decelerating pace of momentum." The service-providing sector likely accounted for most of the anticipated job gains in April. WAGE GAINS MODERATEAverage hourly earnings are expected to have risen by 0.3% in April, matching March's gain.

☆ U.S. weekly jobless claims rise as higher borrowing costs cool demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, May 4 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits increased last week as the labor market gradually softens amid higher interest rates, which are cooling demand in the economy. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 242,000 for the week ended April 29. Nevertheless, the labor market remains tight. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told a press conference that "the labor market remains very tight," but noted there were "some signs that supply and demand in the labor market are coming back into better balance." The claims report has no bearing on the government's closely watched employment report for April, which is scheduled to be released on Friday, as it falls outside the survey period.

☆ US private payrolls increase solidly; wage growth cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SummarySummary Companies Private payrolls increase by 296,000 in AprilPrior month's gain revised lower to 142,000WASHINGTON, May 3 (Reuters) - U.S. private employers boosted hiring in April amid strong demand for workers in the leisure and hospitality industry, but a slowdown in wage growth offered some good news for the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation. Private payrolls increased by 296,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment would increase 148,000. It has not been a reliable gauge in forecasting private payrolls in the BLS employment report. According to a Reuters survey of economists, private payrolls likely increased by 160,000 jobs last month.

☆ South Korea inflation hits 14-month low, backs view rate-hike cycle is over
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Choonsik Yoo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SEOUL, May 2 (Reuters) - South Korea's consumer inflation eased for a third consecutive month to a 14-month low in April and the central bank expects the downward trend to persist for some time, supporting the market's view that its policy tightening cycle is over. The consumer price index (CPI) stood 3.7% higher in April than a year earlier, the Statistics Korea data showed on Tuesday, marking the slowest growth since February last year and following a 4.2% increase in March. The Bank of Korea (BOK) issued a broadly dovish statement, although it repeated that uncertainty remained high over the future path of inflation. "The consumer price growth will show a clearly slowing trend through the middle of this year, while the core price growth will show a trend of easing at a slower pace than the headline inflation," it said. The central bank held interest rates steady at the last two successive policy meetings after raising them by 300 basis points since late 2021.

☆ South Korea April inflation eases to 14-month low, matches expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SEOUL, May 2 (Reuters) - South Korea's consumer inflation eased for a third consecutive month to a 14-month low in April on an annual basis, data showed on Tuesday, supporting the market's perception that the central bank's policy tightening cycle is over. The consumer price index (CPI) stood 3.7% higher in April than a year earlier, the Statistics Korea data showed, marking the slowest growth since February last year and following a 4.2% increase in March. Despite the sustained cooling in annual inflation, other measures showed inflation pressure was far from disappearing as prices rose on a monthly basis and annual inflation held steady when excluding volatile items. The CPI rose 0.2% in April from March, gaining for a fifth consecutive month, while the annual growth in the index excluding foods and energy items held steady at 4.0% for a third consecutive month, the data showed. The official target for the Bank of Korea's monetary policy is managing the broadest CPI growth at around 2% on an annual basis.

☆ South Korea exports suffer longest losing streak in three years, China sales tumble
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SEOUL, May 1 (Reuters) - South Korea's exports fell for a seventh straight month in April for their longest losing streak in three years, driven by an extended slump in sales to China and suggesting persistent pressure on the economy from frail global demand. A breakdown of the data showed exports to China tumbled 26.5% for their 11th consecutive month of declines, while those to the United States fell 4.4% in their first shrinking month in three. By product, semiconductor exports dived 41.0%, extending their losses to the ninth straight month. Imports in April fell 13.3% to $52.23 billion following a 6.4% fall in March, also faster than a 10.6% decline expected by economists. Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Editing by Choonsik Yoo & Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ South Korea exports contract for seventh month, longest streak in 3 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SEOUL, May 1 (Reuters) - South Korea's exports fell for a seventh straight month in April in annual terms, data showed on Monday, marking their longest losing streak in three years and suggesting persistent pressure on the economy from frail global demand. Overseas sales by Asia's fourth-largest economy fell 14.2% year-on-year to $49.62 billion in April, the trade ministry data showed, after a 13.6% fall in February and compared with a 13.5% drop tipped in a Reuters survey. Imports in April fell 13.3% to $52.23 billion following a 6.4% fall in March, also faster than a 10.6% decline expected by economists. As a result, the country posted a trade deficit of $2.62 billion in April, the 14th month in a row that the export-reliant economy suffered monthly trade deficit. Reporting by Jihoon Lee; Editing by Choonsik Yoo & Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Strong US consumer spending seen driving economy in first quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

According to a Reuters survey of economists, GDP growth likely increased at a 2.0% annualized rate last quarter after rising at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter. Estimates ranged from a growth rate of 0.4% to a 3.3% pace. DOWNSIDE RISKSome institutions cut their GDP growth estimates, with Wells Fargo slashing its forecast by a full percentage point. Still, consumer spending is expected to have grown at a pace faster than the pedestrian 1.0% rate logged in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, is expected to be driven by demand for services.

☆ U.S. goods trade deficit narrows sharply in March; retail inventories rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, April 26 (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed sharply in March as exports surged and imports declined, which augurs well for economic growth in the first quarter. The goods trade deficit contracted 8.1% last month to $84.6 billion, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. Exports of goods increased $4.9 billion to $172.7 billion. Goods imports fell $2.5 billion to $257.3 billion, pulled down by decreases in industrial supplies, capital goods and other goods. Retail inventories increased 0.7% after rising 0.3% in the prior month.

☆ U.S. core capital goods orders and shipments drop in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.4% last month, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. Data for February was revised down to show these so-called core capital goods orders falling 0.7% instead of dipping 0.1% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast core capital goods orders slipping 0.1%. Shipments of core capital goods decreased 0.4% in March after falling 0.4% in February. Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in the gross domestic product measurement.

☆ US business spending on equipment weakening as demand for goods slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Even though business spending on equipment weakened, demand remained strong for goods like computers and electronic products as well as electrical equipment, appliances and components. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.4% last month. Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in the gross domestic product measurement. Goods imports dropped $2.5 billion to $257.3 billion, pulled down by decreases in industrial supplies, capital goods and other goods. While the decline in imports is supportive of higher GDP, the drop in capital goods underscored weakening business spending.

☆ US core capital goods orders fall; goods trade deficit narrows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SummarySummary Companies Core capital goods orders fall 0.4% in MarchShipments of core capital goods drop 0.4%Goods trade deficit narrows 8.1%WASHINGTON, April 26 (Reuters) - New orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods fell more than expected in March and shipments declined, suggesting that business spending on equipment likely remained a drag on economic growth in the first quarter. Data for February was revised down to show a 0.7% drop in these so-called core capital goods orders instead of the previously reported 0.1% dip. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast core capital goods orders would slip 0.1%. Shipments of core capital goods decreased 0.4% in March after falling by a similar margin in February. Goods imports fell $2.5 billion to $257.3 billion, pulled down by decreases in industrial supplies, capital goods and other goods.

☆ Oil prices extend losses on fears of recession and slower oil demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices eased on Friday, extending losses from the two previous days and heading for a weekly decline, as softening U.S. economic data and a rise in U.S. gasoline inventories raised concerns about a recession and slower global oil demand. Brent futures for June delivery were down by 14 cents, or 0.2%, at $80.96 a barrel at 0101 GMT. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) for June delivery slid 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $77.25 a barrel. "Market sentiment remained bearish after the weak U.S. economic data, along with expectations of interest rate hikes, fueling worries over a recession that could dent oil demand," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities. U.S. crude oil inventories last week fell more than forecast as refinery runs and exports rose, while gasoline stockpiles jumped unexpectedly on disappointing demand, Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday.

☆ China may hold lending benchmarks steady as recovery remains on track -analysts
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, April 19 (Reuters) - China is widely expected to stand pat on lending benchmarks at the monthly fixing on Thursday, a Reuters survey showed, as economic recovery has been well on track - as seen from better-than-expected first-quarter data. China's economy grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the first quarter, reducing the urgency for authorities to ease monetary policy to aid recovery, traders and economists said. The loan prime rate (LPR), which banks normally charge their best clients, is calculated each month after 18 designated commercial banks submit proposed rates to the People's Bank of China (PBOC). In a poll of 30 market watchers, 27 predicted no change to either the one-year LPR or five-year tenor . The interest rate on medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans serves as a guide to the LPR.

☆ US job growth expected to moderate but remain at brisk pace in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Economists said the revisions brought the claims series closer to other data that have suggested the labor market was losing speed. Surveys from the Institute for Supply Management this week offered a downbeat assessment of the labor market. The labor market is expected to significantly loosen up starting in the second quarter as companies respond more to a slowdown in demand caused by the higher borrowing costs. Small businesses, like restaurants and bars, have been the main drivers of job growth since the recovery from the pandemic. "This presents a lot of downside risks for the labor market," said Thomas Simons, an economist at Jefferies in Bloomfield, New Jersey.

BENGALURU, April 6(Reuters) - The Bank of Canada will keep its key interest rate steady at 4.50% through 2023, according to most economists polled by Reuters, with an even smaller minority now expecting an interest rate cut by year-end than a poll taken a month ago. In March, the BoC was the first major central bank to stop its aggressive hiking cycle and is on what it calls a conditional pause. So all 33 economists polled March 31-April 6 said it will hold its overnight rate at 4.50% on April 12. A majority of forecasters, 23 of 31, said the rate would remain unchanged for the rest of 2023. Only seven expected at least one 25-basis-point rate cut by end-year, down from 13 in a survey taken about a month ago.

☆ U.S. weekly jobless claims fall; layoffs jump in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The government revised data for some prior years and introduced new seasonal factors for both initial and the so-called continuing claims. Surveys from the Institute for Supply Management this week suggested that the labor market was fraying at the edges. LABOR MARKET LOOSENINGThe Labor Department reported on Tuesday that job openings fell below 10 million at the end of February for first time in nearly two years. The claims data has no bearing on March's employment report, which is scheduled to be released on Friday. Cooling labor market conditions could allow the Fed to halt its fastest interest rate hiking cycle since the 1980s.

☆ US services sector growth slows; price pressures abating
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Despite the pullback in growth in the services sector, Anthony Nieves, chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee noted that "the majority of respondents report a positive outlook on business conditions." The services sector is being supported by consumers switching spending from goods, which are typically bought on credit. ISM services PMITRADE DEFICIT WIDENSWhile accommodation and food services businesses reported that "traffic is recovering and nearly flat," they added "we are optimistic about the coming months." With demand cooling, services sector inflation continued to subside, though it remains elevated. Services sector employment growth also moderated.

☆ US private payrolls growth slows in March -ADP
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Private employment increased by 145,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 200,000. The government reported on Tuesday that there were 9.9 million job openings at the end of February. It has not been a reliable gauge in forecasting private payrolls in the BLS employment report. According to a Reuters survey of economists, the government report is likely to show private payrolls increased by 215,000 jobs in March.

☆ US private payrolls miss expectations in March -ADP
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, April 5 (Reuters) - U.S. private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in March, suggesting that the labor market was cooling. Private employment increased by 145,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment report showed on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 200,000. It has not been a reliable gauge in forecasting private payrolls in the BLS employment report. According to a Reuters survey of economists, private payrolls likely increased by 215,000 jobs in March.

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