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☆ The Fed has redeemed itself after an 'egregious' post-COVID inflation error, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The former Treasury Secretary told Bloomberg TV that the central bank's interest rate strategy has largely succeeded, even though Fed officials made a major blunder by first underestimating pandemic-era inflation. In 2021, the Fed mischaracterized inflation as "transitory," citing that COVID supply chain disruptions would eventually blow away. Once central bankers grew to understand that inflation needed an interest rate response, the Fed initiated the most aggressive policy-tightening campaign in recent history. In that period, Summers often showcased skepticism that the Fed could clamp down on inflation this way without economic consequences. AdvertisementNow, the main question is how far interest rates could fall during the Fed's September meeting.

Persons: —, Larry Summers, Summers, I've, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, Fed

☆ Nvidia will be in the spotlight next week as Wall Street wraps up a tumultuous August
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia Wall Street is bullish heading into Nvidia's earnings results next week, figuring any hiccups to its next generation AI chips does little to dim the earnings potential of a company that essentially has a monopoly on the market. Economists polled by FactSet anticipate PCE to show increases of 0.2% month on month and 2.6% from the year-earlier period. Wall Street anticipates that stocks could go higher from here, though the road from now to the end of the year could be bumpy. Other notable earnings results include tech names Salesforce and CrowdStrike, as well as consumer names such as Campbell Soup, Dollar General and Ulta Beauty. Earnings: Nvidia , Bath & Body Works , J. M. Smucker , Salesforce , CrowdStrike , NetApp , HP Thursday Aug. 29 8:30 a.m.

Persons: Nvidia's, chipmaker, they've, Harsh Kumar, Piper Sandler, Blackwell, Jensen Huang, Jim Cramer, Kumar, Louis Navellier, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Powell, FactSet, David Miller, Miller, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, He's, Campbell, Lululemon Organizations: Nvidia, Blackwell, Navellier, Associates, Federal Reserve, PCE, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, U.S, Catalyst Funds, Ulta, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, Body, HP, Autodesk, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Chicago, Michigan

☆ Next week has historically been a bright spot ahead of a tough market period
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Going back to 1953, the S & P 500 has climbed around 0.5% during the final week of August on a median basis, according to data analyzed by Bespoke Investment Group. That is a bright spot ahead of a historically weak period for the market. September ranks as the worst month on average for the S & P 500 going back to 1950, according to data from the Stock Trader's Almanac. Almanac data shows the S & P 500 is flat on average for the month. .SPX 1M mountain The S & P 500, 1 month The upcoming week also has some events that may move the market in the trading month's final days.

Organizations: Investment Group, Stock, Investors

July marked a third straight month that egg prices rose on an annual basis, a reversal from a year of relative decreases. The culprit was a continued battle against the highly pathogenic avian influenza, known in short as HPAI or the bird flu. Inflation in egg prices became a focus for consumers during the pandemic given their ubiquity in everyday cooking. The bird flu had a historic outbreak in 2022 and surged once again at the end of 2023. That can underscore the impact of any bird flu outbreaks on the prices customers see on grocery store shelves.

Persons: Luke Sharrett, Caitlinn Hubbell, Hubbell, resurgences Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Purdue University's Center, Food, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: West Lafayette , Indiana, Colorado, California

☆ The 'soft landing' hypothesis is alive and well: What retail sales and Walmart earnings tell us
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-15 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Inflation relief was palpable this week, with both the producer price index and consumer price index reinforcing that inflation is trending down. .SPX 1M mountain S & P 500 Index over the past month. S & P 500 earnings growth of 10% is expected in 2024, and 15% growth is seen for 2025. True, revenue growth hasn't been as strong, and much of the reason earnings are holding up is cost cutting. Growth is slowing, but no recession is apparent Interest rate cuts coming and earnings are still holding up.

Persons: It's, John David Rainey Organizations: Walmart, American Association of, Bulls, Atlanta Fed, CNBC

Tim Walz defends his military record. Walz defends his military recordDemocratic vice presidential nominee Tim Walz defended his military record during his first solo event on the campaign trail. Vance asserted Walz misrepresented his military record; Walz said he misspoke. Ernesto expected to strengthen into a hurricaneTropical Storm Ernesto on Aug. 13, 2024. Staff Pick: Laci Peterson case back in the spotlightLaci Peterson and Scott Peterson in an undated photo.

Persons: Tim Walz, Walz, ”, Sen, JD Vance, Vance, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, nudging Trump, Chuck Todd, Kamala Harris, Ernesto, Ilhan Omar, Minnesota, Eric Hovde, Democratic Sen, Tammy Baldwin, Laci Peterson, Scott Peterson, Peterson, — Chelsea Stahl, Benjamin Netanyahu, Elvis Presley’s, Elizabeth Robinson Organizations: Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Democratic, Minnesota, NBC, Trump, GOP, NOAA, Getty Images Schools, NHC, U.S ., Wisconsin Republican, Senate, Modesto Police Department, Pictures, Israeli, Police Locations: Los Angeles, Ohio, Denver, Boston, Michigan, Asheville , North Carolina, Puerto Rico, Caribbean, British Virgin Islands, U.S . Virgin Islands , Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, California, U.S, Ferguson , Missouri, Tennessee

Economists like to say the cure for high prices is high prices. In other words, consumers eventually start to hold back on spending when they are faced with increasing costs. On Monday, the New York Federal Reserve reported that consumers' three-year inflation outlook hit a record low. Many economists credit the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates starting in the spring of 2022 with helping to curb the upswing. It is that last factor that the Federal Reserve is keenly focused on.

Persons: “, Andrew Jassy, Wells Fargo, Mark Hamrick, ” Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve's, New York Federal Reserve, Federal, Fed, BLS, Gallup, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S, York

☆ Dollar droops after benign inflation data; kiwi firm before RBNZ decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar remained on the back foot on Wednesday after tumbling versus major peers overnight as a benign reading for U.S. producer prices reinforced bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Risk-sensitive currencies stayed strong after the unexpected softening in inflation buoyed equities, even with crucial U.S. consumer price index figures still looming later on Wednesday. New Zealand's dollar hovered near a four-week high ahead of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy decision, with markets split over the potential for a rate cut. The dollar was stable at 147.06 yen as it continued to consolidate around the 147 level this week. The kiwi edged up 0.07% to $0.6081, close to Tuesday's high of $0.60815, a level last seen on July 18.

Persons: CME's, Carol Kong, Sterling, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Australian, New, Reserve Bank of New, Traders, Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, U.S, CPI, CBA, IG Locations: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ Asia-Pacific markets continue winning run as U.S. producer prices rises less than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Asia-Pacific markets have extended gains on Wednesday after producer prices in the U.S. came in lower than expected for July. In Japan, business sentiment at manufacturers turned slightly less confident in August compared with the month before, according to the Reuters Tankan survey. The Tankan survey — which tracks the Bank of Japan's quarterly survey of the same name — showed that the sentiment index for manufacturers slipped to +10 in August, while the non manufacturers index fell to +24. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is also due to announce its latest decision on its official cash rate on Wednesday. Economist expectations are varied, with a Reuters poll forecasting the central bank will maintain rates at 5.5%.

Persons: Dow, — Organizations: Dow Jones, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of New Locations: Ginza, Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Pacific, U.S, South Korea, China, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ UK inflation rose to 2.2% in July, after two months at the Bank of England's 2% target
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.K. inflation rose to 2.2% in July, coming in slightly below expectations but inching back above the Bank of England's 2% target, data from the Office for National Statistics showed Wednesday. The headline inflation had come in at 2% in both May and June, in line with the Bank of England's target rate. So-called core-CPI — which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices — came in at 3.3% in July, down from the 3.5% print of July, the statistics office said. The data comes after the Bank of England earlier this month cut interest rates for the first time in over four years, taking the key bank rate to 5%. Uncertainty remains about when the central bank will cut rates again, and whether another cut will even take place this year.

Persons: BOE Organizations: Bank of England's, Office, National Statistics, Reuters, Bank of, Bank of England

☆ Dip buyers vindicated as CPI report revives economic 'soft landing' scenario
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the second day in a row that stocks have reacted with relief to an inflation report. The S & P 500 is now back to where it was just before the disappointing jobs report on Aug. 2. The S & P technology sector ETF (XLK) is also back to levels before the jobs report. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has collapsed to 17 — also where it was just before the jobs report. Despite the growth scare that followed the jobs report, there are no signs of an imminent recession.

Persons: — Organizations: Federal, Treasury, Bloomberg News, Tech, Nvidia, Atlanta Fed Locations: Treasurys

☆ Treasury yields slip ahead of consumer inflation figures
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.929% after rising by 1 basis point. U.S. Treasury yields fell slightly on Wednesday as investors considered the latest inflation data and what it could mean for the economy and monetary policy. Treasury yields had tumbled on Tuesday after the producer price index increased 0.1% on a monthly bass in July, less than the forecast 0.2% rise. The wholesale inflation figure was released ahead of Wednesday's consumer price index. Investors will also be scanning the inflation figures for hints the outlook for interest rates.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, CPI, Federal, Traders, Fed

☆ Mortgage refinancing surges 35% in one week, as interest rates hit lowest level in over a year
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

It appears to have taken a few weeks for current homeowners to realize mortgage rates had dropped dramatically. Applications to refinance a home loan surged 35% last week, compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. While rates dropped just 1 basis point last week, they were down 33 basis points in the past four weeks. They were also 62 basis points lower than the same week a year ago. Mortgage rates started this week essentially flat, but that could change with the release of the government's monthly inflation report, the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Persons: Joel Kan, Matthew Graham Organizations: Woodland, Lifestyle Homes, Mortgage, FHA, Index, Mortgage News Locations: Cold Springs , Nevada

☆ Annual inflation rate slows to 2.9% in July, lowest since 2021
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of prices for goods and services, increased 0.2% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.9%. Excluding food and energy, core CPI came in at a 0.2% monthly increase and a 3.2% annual rate, meeting expectations. The annual rate is the lowest since March 2021, while the core is the lowest since April 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report. A 0.4% increase in shelter costs was responsible for 90% of the all-items inflation increase. Food prices increased 0.2% while energy was flat.

Persons: Joe Raedle, Dow Jones Organizations: Getty, Labor Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Miami , Florida

☆ Inflation milestone: Consumer Price Index slows below 3% for first time since March 2021
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

CNN —Price hikes slowed more than expected in July, and, for the first time in more than three years, the Consumer Price Index has landed below 3%. Consumer prices rose 2.9% for the 12 months ended in July, slowing from June’s 3% annual gain, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest CPI report released Wednesday. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.2% after posting a 0.1% decline the month before. Economists were expecting a 0.2% monthly increase and an annual rise of 3%, according to Fact Set consensus estimates. Core CPI inflation is now running at its slowest pace since April 2021.

Persons: CNN — Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’

☆ Gold prices inch lower as U.S. inflation data looms
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. inflation print later in the day that could set the tone for the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. inflation print later in the day that could set the tone for the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. Data on Tuesday showed that U.S. producer prices increased less than expected in July, reinforcing market view that cooling inflation will allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he wants to see "a little more data" before he's ready to support lowering interest rates. Gold, often used as a hedge against geopolitical risks, thrives when interest rates are low.

Persons: Kyle Rodda, Raphael Bostic, Ismail Haniyeh Organizations: Federal, Fed, Federal Reserve, Traders, Atlanta Fed, Investors Locations: U.S, Iran, Gaza, Israel

Wall Street is on edge heading into the July consumer price report after sharp stock swings this month reignited fears over the fate of the economy. Economists are predicting that inflation remained broadly unchanged in July — a reading that should allow the Federal Reserve to start easing the brakes on the economy next month by cutting interest rates. But a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the Consumer Price Index could intensify worries that the economy is moving quickly toward a more pronounced downturn, while a surprise acceleration is likely to rein in rate cut expectations that investors are already counting on to support the market. That leaves investors in search of an inflation “sweet spot,” Chris Larkin, head of trading and investing at E-Trade, said in a statement: “cool enough that no one will be second-guessing the likelihood of a September rate cut, but warm enough to push aside the recession concerns that have rattled the markets recently.”

Persons: ” Chris Larkin, ” Organizations: Federal Reserve

☆ Inflation cooled in July, adding to the case for interest rate cuts at the next Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

It's the first time the inflation rate has been below 3% since March 2021, and it adds to the case that the Federal Reserve could cut rates at its next meeting. Over the month, the consumer price index rose 0.2% in July. The Fed is watching for inflation to cool before committing to rate cuts. Many economists think it's well past time for the Fed to cut interest rates and have expressed worries about the rapidly cooling labor market. AdvertisementThe labor market is cooling off, and it might be harder to get a job than a few years ago.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Nick Bunker, Claudia Sahm, Powell Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Core CPI, of Labor Statistics, Fed, North America, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New Century Advisors, Federal Reserve

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Wall Street soars; Starbucks ousts CEO
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-14 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Wall Street soarsWall Street rose after producer prices came in softer than expected, raising hopes of a rate cut. Starbucks ousts CEOStarbucks surprised investors by replacing CEO Laxman Narasimhan with Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol, driving Starbucks' stock up more than 24% while Chipotle fell as much as 10%. Under Narasimhan's tenure, Starbucks' performance has struggled, marked by weak sales in the U.S. and China, its two largest markets. The latest inflation data strengthens the market's expectations of an interest rate cut at the Fed's September meeting.

Persons: Laxman Narasimhan, Brian Niccol, Chipotle, Niccol, Richard McPhail Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Treasury, Starbucks, Google, Gemini, Federal Reserve, PPI Locations: New York City, U.S, China

☆ Australia's second-quarter wages rise at slowest pace in a year
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Australian wages rose at their slowest pace in a year in the June quarter, falling short of expectations, while softer gains in the private sector suggest the labor market was easing. "The RBA will be somewhat relieved to see wage pressures subsiding," said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia. "However, absent an improvement in productivity growth, the current pace of wage growth is still a little too strong for inflation to return to target quickly." The overall increase in annual wages was still just enough to take it above inflation of 3.6%, a welcome return to real pay growth after years of negative outcomes. Incomes will get an added boost from a major round of tax cuts that started in July.

Persons: Sean Langcake Organizations: Australian Bureau, Statistics, Oxford Economics Australia, Reserve Bank of Australia

☆ Asia-Pacific markets open mostly higher as investors await U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Charmaine Jacob | In Charmainemariajacob | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Asia-Pacific markets opened mostly higher on Tuesday, following a fluctuating session overnight in the U.S. as investors prepare for key inflation data. The S&P 500 concluded the day flat at 5,344.39, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.21% to close at 16,780.61, led by shares of Nvidia soaring 4%. On the flipside, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 140 points or 0.36% to conclude at 39,357.01. Traders await Wednesday's consumer price index for July, a key indicator of the health of the U.S. economy. Investors will analyze the data for indications the Federal Reserve can begin cutting rates in September.

Organizations: Nasdaq, Nvidia, Dow Jones, Traders, Investors, Reserve Locations: Asia, Pacific, U.S

☆ Don't get too excited about this latest inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stocks had a strong showing Tuesday after the latest U.S. wholesale inflation report came out. In other words, just because PPI rose less than expected, it doesn't mean investors should expect a tame CPI report on Wednesday. "Financial markets seem to react too much every month to PPI," said Stanley, the bank's chief economist. " The S & P 500 closed Tuesday's session nearly 2% higher, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.4%. The major averages are now well above the lows seen in Aug. 5, when the Dow and S & P 500 suffered their biggest one-day pullbacks since 2022.

Persons: Stocks, Stephen Stanley, Stanley, Dow, David Russell, We're Organizations: ISI, PPI, Santander U.S, CPI, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial

☆ Stock market today: Stocks soar as investors cheer soft PPI and brace for consumer inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks rallied on cooling inflation data from the producer price index report. Investors are hoping for evidence of further cooling in Wednesday's consumer price index. Starbucks gained 23% on Tuesday on news Chipotle boss Brian Niccol will be the new CEO. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the producer price index rose 0.1% in July, underwhelming estimates of a 0.2% increase. Investors will now watch for further disinflationary signals in Wednesday's consumer price index report.

Persons: Brian Niccol, —, Dow, Jamie Cox Organizations: Investors, Starbucks, Service, Labor Statistics, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Fed, Harris Financial Group, Bank of America

☆ Stock market today: Indexes climb as producer inflation comes in cool
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks were higher on Tuesday after PPI showed wholesale inflation was less than expected in July. Investors are now bracing for the consumer inflation reading due out on Wednesday. AdvertisementUS stocks were up on Tuesday after the producer price index for July showed wholesale inflation rose less than expected. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that producer prices increased 0.1% last month compared to estimates of 0.2%. The cooler-than-expected reading should boost optimism for consumer prices to show a decline in inflation when the consumer price index is released on Wednesday.

Persons: —, Chris Zaccarelli, Laxman Narasimhan, Brian Niccol, Elon Musk Organizations: PPI, Investors, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Fed, Depot, Bank of America, Starbucks, Trump Media, Elon

☆ 3 data points that could impact how big of a Fed rate cut the market gets next month
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Management blamed "higher interest rates and greater macroeconomic uncertainty" for pressuring consumer spending on home improvement projects. The recent data certainly supports the idea of a rate cut at the Fed's mid-September meeting. However, that's weeks away, we know things can turn on a dime in the data and the stock market. Lower rates can certainly impact the stock market — but when it comes to picking individual stocks, we remain focused on earnings. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

Persons: Thursday's, Stanley Black, Decker, Stifel, bode, Russell, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Nasdaq, PPI, Management, Dow, Home Depot, Trade, Costco, Depot, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: U.S, New York City

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