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"The German economy remained stuck in the mud at the start of 2023, only barely avoiding recession," Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief eurozone economist Claus Vistesen said. The German economy shrank by a revised 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared with the previous three months, reviving fears of a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. "A gradual recovery is underway, despite a persistently difficult environment," German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said in the presentation of the forecasts. "The recent renaissance in industrial production could very well carry the economy through the second quarter," ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski said. "However, we are afraid that looking into the second half of the year, the German economy will continue its flirtation with recession."

☆ 'Welcome to the recession:' Most of Wall Street still sees trouble ahead for the U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

In fact, excluding the drag from inventories, GDP growth actually would have been closer to 3.4%, well above trend. However, most economists and strategists on Wall Street think the U.S. economy is still on the path to recession. We continue to expect the drag from higher interest rates and tightening credit conditions to push the economy into a mild recession soon." Jim Baird, chief investment officer, Plante Moran Financial Advisors "For all the discussion of recession risk – which is very real – consumers remain willing and able to spend. Recession risks remain elevated; the first estimate of Q1 GDP confirms that the economy continues to slow.

☆ Opinion | The Housing Market Has Cooled, But It’s Not Frozen
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

With fewer people selling, some people who might have bought an existing home from a homeowner are instead buying a new home from a builder. Sales of new single-family homes rose in March, the Census Bureau reported on Tuesday. Given those changes, “unless you’re a person who needs to make a move, there’s little incentive” to move now, Vanden Houten told me. Of course, some people still are putting their homes on the market, and Vanden Houten herself was recently one of them. “A lot of people have earned a substantial amount of housing equity,” Lautz said.

The country's IPCA-15 inflation index eased to a 30-month low of 4.16% from 5.36% in the previous month, government statistics agency IBGE said on Wednesday, coming in below market consensus of 4.20% in a Reuters poll of economists. The latest data comes a day after central bank Governor Roberto Campos Neto ruled out an imminent interest rate cut, saying in a Senate hearing that the current rate was appropriate to address inflation concerns. "Will RCN and his team wait for current inflation to reach 3% before starting to cut interest rates?" William Jackson, Capital Economics' chief emerging markets economist, said he doubts policymakers will pivot to interest rate cuts imminently, considering that core inflation remains strong and the central bank has been striking a hawkish tone. "All told, the inflation picture continues to improve in Brazil," Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief Latin America economist Andres Abadia said.

☆ Americans are getting worried about the job market
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Washington, DC CNN —US consumer confidence worsened in April as Americans become more pessimistic about the job market. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which measures attitudes toward the economy and the job market, fell to 101.3 in April, down from 104 in March and marking the lowest level since July 2022. “Compared to last month, fewer households expect business conditions to improve and more expect worsening of conditions in the next six months. They also expect fewer jobs to be available over the short term.”That matches government figures showing the labor market has begun to show some cracks. Employers added 236,000 jobs in March, the smallest gain in two years, and job openings fell below 10 million for the first time since May 2021.

☆ The housing market’s still in limbo - but homebuyers could pile back into the market if mortgage rates hit this key level
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

"Home sales are trying to recover and are highly sensitive to changes in mortgage rates," NAR economist Lawrence Yun said. He added that home prices are still climbing in regions where jobs are being added and housing is relatively affordable. cutting rates) in the next 12 months, which will again sway the housing sector. With that outlook in mind, the economist said "home sales will steadily rebound despite several months of fluctuations." Even in a tight market, this home expert still sees potential to save money on interest rates.

☆ A real-estate investor who's built a 311-unit portfolio over the last 26 years lays out how new investors can scale up and maximize cash flow in today's market as strategies like home-flipping and BRR
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-16 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

A much better strategy to scale up in today's market is house hacking, Curry said. When Anne Curry started to build her 311-unit portfolio in the late 1990s, she turned to hard money lenders. Curry also said it offers investors to maximize cash flow and the chance to scale up. "Buy something that your mortgage payment is such where you could rent it out for that much, or maybe a little more," she said. The total mortgage payment for the property is about $3,000 per month she said, and he's able to charge $1,800 for the one unit and $900 for the bedroom.

☆ Real-estate investor Anne Curry has built a 311-unit portfolio since obtaining her first rental property in 1997. She shares the no-money-down strategy she used to scale up— and how she eventually wor
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Anne Curry started her real-estate investing journey in 1997. She laid out for Insider in detail the method she used to scale up, starting with hard-money lenders. By the time they were ready to move out, the property had just about doubled in value to $124,000, Curry said. According to property tax documents viewed by Insider, she now owns a 59-unit property, a 30-unit property, an 14-unit property, and two 12-unit properties, as well as several smaller multifamily properties. Curry said the property was a good deal because big commercial real-estate investing firms weren't interested because it was considered affordable housing.

☆ A chief economist who called the 2008 recession sees signs that the economy has already begun to unravel — and says a recession will be apparent as early as this summer
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The unemployment rate will start to rise this summer, says Ian Shepherdson. The US economy is already starting to unravel and a recession will arrive as soon as this summer, according to Ian Shepherdson, the founder and chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics. "We expect to see payrolls falling in the summer, pushing up the unemployment rate." Shepherdson pointed to the National Federation of Independent Businesses Hiring Intentions survey as a leading indicator of where the job market is headed. The current unemployment rate of 3.5% still sits near a more than five-decade low.

☆ German industrial output rises more than expected in February
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BERLIN, April 6 (Reuters) - German industrial production rose significantly more than expected in February due in part to vehicle manufacturing, increasing 2.0% on the previous month, the federal statistical office said on Thursday. "Despite the strong rebound, industrial production is still slightly below its pre-pandemic level." Industrial output is expected to increase further in the coming months. Pantheon Macroeconomics forecasts that industrial production will post a 3.0% quarter-on-quarter expansion in the first quarter, comfortably reversing the 0.5% decline in the fourth quarter. Year-on-year, industrial production rose 0.6% in February.

☆ Zillow's chief economist explains why the party is over for short-term real-estate investing tactics like house-flipping — and says long-term strategies designed to generate cash flow are an investor'
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

You know, long run mortgage rates are expected to be around five-and-a-half, six." Economists at other real-estate firms share similar views to Olsen's in respect to mortgage rates, at least for the rest of 2023. Plus, when mortgage rates eventually fall, one can refinance into a lower rate, improving an investor's positive cash flow. In the meantime, there's a way that buyers can get around high mortgage rates, Olsen said. Many sellers are offering concessions, like paying for repairs and helping pay for a rate buydown.

☆ Private bankruptcy filings are blowing past their COVID-era peaks as credit stress builds for small businesses
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Private bankruptcy filings this year have surpassed a peak set in the early stage of the pandemic, UBS said. So far in 2023, private bankruptcy filings have outstripped a peak set in the early stage of the COVID pandemic by a wide margin. Bankruptcy hot spots include the real estate industry, which has led this year's increase in private bankruptcy filings. The UBS Evidence Lab Corporate Bankruptcy Monitor tracks US corporate chapter 7, 11, and 15 bankruptcy filings. After sifting through data, UBS outlined several takeaways, including that private bankruptcy filings are led by the real estate, chemicals, healthcare, and retail industries.

☆ Home prices will fall 15% over the next year as high interest rates squeeze the housing market, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Home prices are set to drop 15% over the next year, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. That's because rates are likely to remain high, helping push down affordability and demand as a result. Some economists think a housing market recovery could be coming in 2024. US home prices have fallen amid higher mortgage rates over the last year, notching their seventh straight month of declines in January. Mortgage rates touched a 20-year-high in 2022 and have stayed elevated, crimping housing affordability and demand while putting downward pressure on prices.

☆ A senior economist at Interactive Brokers shares why home prices across the country will fall another 11% over the next year — and why a 2008-size crash he had expected won't come after all
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Interactive Brokers Senior Economist José Torres says home prices will drop 15% peak-to-trough. The weakening in the housing market will continue into Q4 of this year or Q1 of 2024, according to José Torres, a senior economist at Interactive Brokers. Affordability is measured by home prices and mortgage rates relative to incomes. Yardeni ResearchTorres thinks affordability will stay at relatively depressed levels in the months ahead because he sees mortgage rates staying high. As for mortgage rates, consensus among firms like Goldman Sachs, the Mortgage Bankers Association, Moody's, and others is that 30-year rates will remain above 5%.

☆ Why the struggles of mid-sized US banks could be bad news for the Main Street economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Households and businesses may find it harder to get loans from regional banks as people pull deposits from those lenders. "The greatest vulnerabilities with respect to credit creation going forward lie with non-mortgage bank lending to households and mortgage bank lending for non-financial non-corporate businesses," JPMorgan said. Regional banks are "very important" to the financial system, CFRA's Yokum said. Regional banks can potentially give better service, more customized products, potentially higher deposit rates," he said. Some hefty figures illustrate the "disproportionately large" role small banks hold in lending in the US.

☆ Bank credit is the life blood of small businesses, says Pantheon's Sheperdson
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank credit is the life blood of small businesses, says Pantheon's SheperdsonIan Shepherdson, founder and chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss how close the bank crisis has brought the U.S. closer to a recession, why this economy is in a credit crunch, and more.

Food prices soared 18.2% through the year to February, the sharpest rise since the late 1970s. The latest figures could make it more likely that the Bank of England hikes interest rates again when it meets Thursday. "It's still a very close call, but these figures give us a bit more confidence in our forecast that the Bank will raise interest rates from 4% to 4.25% tomorrow." The data complicates the central bank's decision over whether it should raise rates for the 11th consecutive time Thursday — and makes it harder for the government to deliver on its January pledge to halve inflation this year. Wages rose 6.5% in January compared with a year prior, far below the inflation rate both that month and in February.

☆ Premarket stocks: The banking meltdown may have done the Fed's work for it
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But in a strange twist, it’s possible that the banking meltdown actually did some work for the Fed in bringing down prices without raising interest rates. That could have the equivalent effect of the Fed hiking rates by half a point, said Goldman Sachs economists on Tuesday. Bank stocks rebound as Janet Yellen, Jamie Dimon work to restore confidenceThe collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank rippled through markets last week. The Treasury secretary reiterated that the federal government would be willing to rescue uninsured depositors at small banks if lenders suffer bank runs, raising the specter of contagion. The SPDR Regional Banking Equity Traded Fund, which tracks a number of small and mid-sized bank stocks, gained 5.8% for the day.

☆ Home construction unexpectedly surged in February as slump in lumber prices offset pain of rising mortgage rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US housing starts surged in February, with the upside surprise boosted by falling lumber prices in the month. Construction projects pushed through a period of rising mortgage rates. "New residential construction reflected improving builder optimism and declining lumber costs in February, even during a month of rising mortgage rates," George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com, wrote Thursday. Rising mortgage rates and recession fears have dragged prices nearly 70% lower in the last year. "That said, we maintain that a sustained recovery in housing construction is out of the question, for now," Clancy said.

LONDON, March 15 (Reuters) - Finance minister Jeremy Hunt presented less gloomy forecasts for Britain's economy at his Spring Budget on Wednesday. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsROSIER OUTLOOKA rout in global banking stocks on Wednesday overshadowed many UK-specific moves. Investments announced by Hunt such as a corporate spending tax break, a boost for defence and extra childcare support were not viewed as particularly inflationary. Unlike in the last budget, noise around windfall taxes on oil and gas companies was muted in the run-up to the budget since energy prices have fallen dramatically since then. "In general, the budget is not the big story for gilts right now, global drivers are in the driving seat," said James Smith, economist at ING.

"Some further increase in Bank Rate may turn out to be appropriate, but nothing is decided," Bailey added. Bailey said that the economy had developed largely as expected since the BoE raised rates on Feb. 2. "Inflation has been slightly weaker, and activity and wages slightly stronger, though I would emphasise 'slightly' in both cases," he said. Bailey also highlighted how the central bank shifted its language in February, when it said further tightening would be required if there was evidence of more persistent inflation pressures. But two MPC members - Swati Dhingra and Silvana Tenreyro - voted in February to pause the rate hikes.

☆ UK house prices fall by most since 2012, mortgage approvals drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Analysts in a Reuters poll published on Tuesday expect house prices to fall by 2.4% in 2023, less than previously as a resilient job market and easing recession fears soften the blow of higher borrowing costs. Economists polled by Reuters had expected prices to fall by 0.9% from a year earlier and by 0.4% in monthly terms. "Solid gains in nominal incomes together with weak or declining house prices will also support housing affordability, especially if mortgage rates edge lower in the coming months." Nationwide forecast in December that house prices would fall 5% in 2023. Gabriella Dickens, an economist with consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics, said she expected house prices would fall to about 8% below last year's peak.

"This is an encouraging set of data, but still is only one month, and challenges remain." Global oil prices went higher, underlining how a strong Chinese recovery could fuel global inflation through increased energy demand. STUBBORN INFLATIONIn Europe, German data showed the fight against inflation still has some way to go. Factory activity continued to shrink in Taiwan and Malaysia in February, and expanded at a slower pace in the Philippines, surveys showed. Separate data showed South Korea's exports fell 7.5% in February from a year earlier, marking the fifth straight month of declines, partly due to a plunge in semiconductor exports.

☆ Goldman Sachs shares 4 charts that explain the state of the housing market right now — and show why 4 cities could soon see the biggest price declines
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Housing supply on a national basis will remain tight, Goldman Sachs strategists say. Part of that call — which is less bearish than forecasts from firms like KPMG, Interactive Brokers, and Pantheon Macroeconomics — is due to Goldman's outlook for housing supply levels. In certain areas of the country, supply levels are rising faster than in others. In four cities in particular, supply levels are above pre-pandemic levels, the bank said, which will result in greater price declines than the national average. Goldman SachsSupply developments in the multi-family housing market could also signal trouble for prices down the line, the strategists said.

☆ ECB 50-basis-point hike in March a done deal, May and June undecided
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ECB President Christine Lagarde said at a news conference this month that the euro zone's central bank would add 50 basis points to the deposit rate. Economists took her at her word, with all 57 of them polled in the Feb. 10-15 period expecting a deposit rate hike to 3.00% at the March 16 meeting. The ECB will follow up on March's move with a further 25-basis-point lift next quarter, medians showed, giving a terminal deposit rate of 3.25% and a refinancing rate of 3.75%. In response to an additional question, an overwhelming majority - 26 of 28 - said the risk was the terminal deposit rate ends higher than they expect, rather than lower. Markets are currently pricing in a terminal deposit rate of 3.50%.

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