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☆ Dow plunges 430 points as yields surge to levels not seen since 2007 and slam US stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks plunged on Tuesday after bond yields surged to a new cycle-high not seen since 2007. The 10-year US Treasury Yield jumped above 4.80%, compared to the 3.64% level it was a year ago. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks plunged on Tuesday as interest rates surged to a new cycle-high, hitting levels not seen since August 2007. The 10-Year US Treasury yield jumped above 4.80%, well above the 3.64% level it was at about a year ago. A still-hot jobs market could push the Federal Reserve to continue with its interest rate hikes in its ongoing bid to tame inflation.

Persons: —, Loretta Mester, Mester Organizations: Treasury, Service, Federal Reserve, Cleveland Fed, Dow Jones, Nasdaq

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in August, another sign the U.S. labor market remains strong despite higher interest rates — perhaps too strong for the inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve. American employers posted 9.6 million job openings in August, up from 8.9 million in July and the first uptick in three months, the Labor Department said Tuesday. ""Yes, the job market is still retaining a lot of heat,'' he said, "but it hasn't gone back on the boil.'' The Federal Reserve wants to see the red-hot U.S. job market cool off, reducing pressure on businesses to raise pay, which can feed into higher prices. The Fed chose not to raise rates at its last meeting Sept. 19-20.

Persons: Economists, —, Nick Bunker, hasn't, Jerome Powell, Dow Jones, Rubeela Farooqi, Loretta Mester, “, ” Mester, Christopher Rugaber Organizations: WASHINGTON, —, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Federal, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, AP

☆ Rupee likely to open weaker pressured by surging U.S. yields
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Jaspreet Kalra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Oct 3 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to open weaker on Tuesday as U.S. treasury yields rose to fresh multi-year highs after the United States averted a partial government shutdown. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 83.25 to the U.S. dollar compared with a close of 83.04 in Friday's session. Buoyed by higher U.S. yields, the dollar index also climbed to 107.13 in Asia, its highest level since November 2022. While the rupee has come close to testing its record low levels in recent weeks, likely dollar sales from the RBI have managed to keep some of the weakness at bay. The rupee could see an intraday fall to a fresh record low if the dollar index continues to strengthen, said Dilip Parmar, a foreign exchange research analyst at HDFC Securities.

Persons: Loretta Mester, Dilip Parmar, Jaspreet Kalra, Sonia Cheema Organizations: U.S, . Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank, Cleveland, Reserve Bank of India, Brent, HDFC Securities, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, United States, Asia

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. A Labor Department report showed U.S. job openings unexpectedly increased in August, pointing to tight labor market conditions. Traders' bets on at least another 25-basis-point rate hike stood in November and December at 30% and 48%, respectively, according to CME's FedWatch tool. The CBOE volatility index (.VIX), known as Wall Street's "fear gauge", touched a more than four-month high, reflecting heightened investor anxiety. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 5.99-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 3.50-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Jason Pride, KeyBanc, McCormick, advancers, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Vinay Dwivedi, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Dow, Nasdaq, Labor Department, Cleveland Fed, Atlanta, Traders, Apple, Reuters, Ofcom, Dow Jones, ADP, HP, BofA Global Research, Boeing, United Airlines, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Glenmede, Philadelphia, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: This Fed's not for turning
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The U.S. Federal Reserve building is pictured in Washington, March 18, 2008. That thought was echoed by Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester, who said: "I suspect we may well need to raise the fed funds rate once more this year." Either way, this is not the sound of a Fed who thinks the inflation battle is won. Fed hawkishness, however, has kept futures markets pricing a 50-50 chance of another quarter point rate hike to the 5.50-5.75% range by year-end. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jason Reed, Mike Dolan, they've, Michelle Bowman, Loretta Mester, Michael Barr, hawkishness, Raphael Bostic, Susan Fenton Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, Reserve, Cleveland Fed, Institute, Supply, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Big Tech, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Treasury, McCormick, PMI, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S

The 2-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to expectations around where the Federal Reserve will set its own key borrowing rate, increased slightly to 5.129%. The 10-year Treasury yield was last up just over 9 basis points to 4.781%. The 30-year Treasury yield rose as high 4.874%, also the highest since 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield, which serves as a benchmark for mortgage rates and as an investor confidence barometer, on Tuesday surged to its highest level since 2007. "Now the Wild Bunch seems to have taken full control of the Treasury market; we're watching to see if the high-yield market is next," he added.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Michael Barr, it's, Loretta Mester, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Cleveland Fed Locations: U.S

☆ Fed's Mester says one more U.S. rate hike may be needed
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

FILE PHOTO: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester takes part in a panel convened to speak about the health of the U.S. economy in New York November 18, 2015. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File PhotoNEW YORK (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said Monday that the U.S. central bank most likely isn’t done raising interest rates amid ongoing inflation pressures. The Fed has raised rates aggressively over the last year and a half to help cool inflation. Ebbing price pressures allowed officials to keep the federal funds target rate range at between 5.25% and 5.5% in September. Mester said the economy has proved to be stronger than expected at the start of the summer.

Persons: Loretta Mester, Lucas Jackson, ” Mester, Mester’s, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman, “, ”, Mester Organizations: Cleveland Fed, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank, Cleveland Locations: U.S, New York, Cleveland

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. Powell and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Hasker will speak at a roundtable discussion, due 11 a.m. Later in the day, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will speak on the outlook for the U.S. economy. Rivian Automotive (RIVN.O) advanced 2.9% after Evercore ISI raised the EV maker's stock to "outperform" from "in line". Reporting by Shubham Batra and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Patrick Hasker, Loretta Mester, Russell Hackmann, Kevin McCarthy, bitcoin, Piper Sandler, Goldman Sachs, Shubham Batra, Shashwat Chauhan, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Philadelphia Fed, Cleveland Fed, Hackmann Wealth Partners, Democratic, Republican, Dow e, Nvidia, Rivian, ISI, EV, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Powell, Singapore, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: October market fillip as government stays open
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. U.S. Treasury yields, whose relentless rise of late has been at the heart of market disturbances as it prices "higher for longer" interest rates, pushed higher again on Monday too. Ten-year yields were up five basis points to 4.62% - just shy of last week's 16-year peak of 4.69%. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:* US Sept manufacturing surveys by ISM and S&P Global. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Kevin McCarthy, McCarthy, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester, John Williams, Fitch, Nick Macfie Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Democratic, Republican, Ukraine, Treasury, Bank of Japan, of, Petroleum, Reuters, P Global, Cleveland Fed, New York Fed, Tech, Moody's, U.S . AAA, Chicago, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Russia, OPEC, China, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, York

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. Other megacap stocks including Apple (AAPL.O), Meta Platforms (META.O), Amazon.com (AMZN.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and Microsoft (MSFT.O) advanced between 0.9% and 1.9%. Eight of the eleven S&P sub sectors were down, with the utilities index (.SPLRCU), often considered as a bond proxy, declining 4.9%. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 4.02-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 2.27-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded two new 52-week highs and 48 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 19 new highs and 211 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Tesla, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Michelle Bowman, Loretta Mester, Stocks, Paul Ashworth, Kevin McCarthy, advancers, Shubham Batra, Shashwat Chauhan, Vinay Dwivedi, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Cleveland Fed, North, Capital Economics, Democratic, Republican, Dow Jones, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, North America, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: Markets strap in for PMI data dump
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A round of purchasing managers index (PMI) data from across the globe continues with Europe on Monday, following Chinese PMI data over the weekend that pointed to mixed levels of services and manufacturing activity last month. Markets have been feeling the pain after stocks, bonds and non-dollar currencies around the world mostly fell in the previous month, as investors adjusted to the idea that U.S. interest rates will stay elevated for longer. Meanwhile, the euro zone has been grappling with recession jitters amid a slew of other indicators, putting a damper on last week's good news that inflation in the area fell to its lowest in two years. Monday's final manufacturing PMI data from the EU will be closely watched after the preliminary report last month painted a mixed picture of the region's economic health; the index showed a rise in September from August's 33-month low, yet still lingered below the mark separating expansion from contraction. Meanwhile, oil prices are up again on Monday, reversing some of Friday's losses.

Persons: Brigid Riley, Luis de Guindos, Michael Barr, John Williams, Patrick Harker, Loretta Mester, Muralikumar Organizations: PMI, August's, Federal, Reuters, ECB, NY, Philly Fed, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Europe, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Sweden, Cleveland

☆ Americans support strikes — until they affect their daily lives
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-01 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The public will continue to support them – that is until the strikes begin to affect Americans’ daily lives. CNN reached out to the Justice Department for comment but has not received a response. The US Labor Department releases August figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department reports the number of worker filings for jobless benefits in the week ended September 30. The US Labor Department releases September data on the state of the job market, including payroll gains, wage growth and the unemployment rate.

Persons: –, ” Andrew Flowers, “, Eva Rothenberg, Suisse’s, Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker, Michael Barr, John Williams, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Levi Strauss, Tom Barkin, Mary Daly Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN —, Gallup, Guild of America, Teamsters, Reno, United Auto Workers, UAW, Toyota, Honda, CNN, Nationwide, UBS, DOJ, US Department of Justice, Credit Suisse, “ UBS, CS, Bloomberg, Justice Department, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, McCormick, US Labor Department, Atlanta Fed, Constellation Brands, Conagra, Co, US Commerce Department, Carnival Corp Locations: Washington, United States, Hollywood, Las Vegas, Germany, Russia

What they likely won't be changing: Keeping one more rate hike on the table. Given that rosier picture, Luzzetti - like most analysts polled by Reuters - says Fed policymakers probably won't lift the policy rate any further. Many other economists also expect Fed policymakers to signal fewer rate cuts next year. That's only a touch higher than the 3.2% rate the Fed had expected to see at the end of this year. Reuters GraphicsIf progress towards the Fed's 2% goal slows next year though, as many economists forecast, that may mean fewer interest rate cuts next year.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, won't, Matthew Luzzetti, Luzzetti, Tim Duy, Duy, That's, Loretta Mester, Kathy Bostjancic, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Fed, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, China

☆ ‘Immaculate disinflation’ is the new economic buzzword. But what does it mean?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —Economists added yet another term to their lexicon in recent months: immaculate disinflation. That pain tends to come in the form of a higher unemployment rate, which hampers economic growth. Yet the nation’s unemployment rate actually fell from 3.6% in June 2022 to 3.5% in July 2023. That’s leading some economists to believe that immaculate disinflation may be possible. “I wouldn’t call this disinflation immaculate,” he said in a CNBC interview at last month’s Jackson Hole Fed conference.

Persons: there’s, that’s, aren’t, Jerome Powell, Powell, Alex Wong, Joe Biden’s, Jared Bernstein, ”, Jackson, “, Bernstein, Loretta Mester, ” Mester, it’s, Mester Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNBC, Fed, White, Cleveland Fed Locations: New York, United States

☆ Morning Bid: China surprise lifts mood before US payrolls
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Meanwhile, a pleasant surprise emerged from China, where a private-sector survey showed factory activity in the world's second-largest economy ticked back into expansive territory. It's a little too early to celebrate a major shift in recent trends, though, with the property sector and weak household consumption still weighing heavily. China's stock market shook off its recent gloom in the Asian morning, with the blue-chip index's (.CSI300) real estate (.CSI000) and financial (.CSIFN) sub-indexes leading the charge. The parade of PMI data marches on, with surveys due from a host of countries in the euro bloc on Friday. The euro zone final PMI will be in focus after the survey last month showed manufacturing activity slowing at the fastest pace since the start of the pandemic.

Persons: Brigid Riley It's, nonfarm payrolls, haven't, Mester, Brigid Riley Organizations: cnsphoto, REUTERS, Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, PMI, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Zunyi, Guizhou province, China, U.S, It's, Europe, Spain, Switzerland, Italy, France, Germany, Sweden

Sept 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely done raising interest rates, traders bet on Friday after a government report showed the unemployment rate rose last month and wage growth cooled. Futures that settle to the Fed's policy rate had already priced in only a slight chance of a rate hike this month. "This report is likely to put the Fed on hold in September, and if we get more positive inflation news in September and October, the Fed is likely done, and we’ve seen the end of the rate hikes," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. "In the labor market, some progress is being made in bringing demand and supply into better balance, but the job market is still strong,” she told a European Central Bank conference shortly after the latest jobs report. Traders currently see the Fed likely on hold through April 2024, with rate cuts to start in May.

Persons: we’ve, Peter Cardillo, Loretta Mester, Ann Saphir, Stephen Culp, Michael S, Lucia Mutikani, Alex Richardson, Andrea Ricci, Marguerita Choy Organizations: U.S . Federal, Labor Department, Employers, Spartan Capital Securities, Fed, Cleveland Fed, European Central Bank, Traders, Derby, Thomson

☆ Morning Bid: Early Labor Day for markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 1 - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanLabor Day comes a bit earlier for markets this year, with Friday's release of the critical August jobs report coming just ahead of Monday's end-of-season U.S. holiday. A series of updates showed private sector hiring slowing in August, while job openings fell back in July and layoffs jumped. On the flipside, more up-to-date weekly jobless claims fell again and the consensus payrolls estimate has ticked higher from 150,000 only last week. Going into Friday's report, futures markets remain split and stand 50-50 on the chances of another hike by November. And whatever they think about peak rates, markets are also grappling with the prospect of rates staying up here for some time.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, JP Morgan, Saola, Gita Gopinath, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Alexander Smith Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Labor, JP, Atlanta, HK, European Central Bank, Broadcom, Treasury, P Global, Cleveland Federal, Atlanta Fed, Reuters Graphics, United States Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Hong Kong, Europe

☆ Gold holds ground as markets gauge U.S. rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Gold prices firmed on Monday despite U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish stance on interest rates as markets sought direction from economic data this week for confirmation on the rate trajectory. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,916.19 per ounce by 0354 GMT, U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% to $1,943.90. "However, much still awaits on a sustained recovery in gold prices for now, given that concerns of re-accelerating inflation on U.S. economic resilience are translating into mounting bets of a November rate hike." A series of economic data this week, with the U.S. non-farm payroll report on Friday will likely to provide a sharper focus on the economy's strength.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Powell, Jun Rong, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Loretta Mester Organizations: Aurum, U.S, Federal, IG, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, U.S . Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming

"The economy is a global economy, right? Yet Fed officials remain puzzled, and somewhat concerned, over conflicting signals in the incoming data. But gross domestic product is still expanding at a pace well above what Fed officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of around 1.8%. Difficulties in China, meanwhile, may drag down global growth the longer they fester. Its slowdown after a short-lived growth burst earlier this year could pinch Germany's exports and slow Europe's growth, for instance.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ann Saphir, JACKSON, Jackson, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Loretta Mester, Mester, Lagarde, Biden, Nathan Sheets, Powell, Gourinchas, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Monetary Fund, Cleveland Fed, Reuters, Citigroup, Consumer, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, , Wyoming, Brazil, Chile, China, Ukraine

"The longer we let inflation remain above 2%, we're building in a higher and higher price level," she said, and that hurts American households. "I'm going to have to reassess that because, again, it's going to be, how quickly do you think inflation is moving down?" "I do not want to be in a position of prematurely loosening policy," Mester said. Fed projections submitted in June show a median forecast for 2.1% inflation by the end of 2025; Mester said hers was for 2% inflation. The Fed's next and possibly last rate hike "doesn't necessarily have to be September, but I think this year," she said.

Persons: JACKSON, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank Loretta Mester, Mester, Ann Saphir, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: , WYOMING, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

"We will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data," Powell said in a keynote address to the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. "It is the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal, and we will do so. The Fed has raised rates by 5.25 percentage points since March 2022, and inflation by the Fed's preferred gauge has moved down to 3.3% from its peak of 7% last summer. Although the decline was a "welcome development," Powell said, inflation "remains too high." Fed policymakers will also meet in November and December.

Persons: JACKSON, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jackson, Elizabeth Frantz, “ Powell, Michael Arone, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Michael S, Lewis Krauskopf, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve, Committee, REUTERS, Fed, State Street Global Advisors, Cleveland Fed, Chicago Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, U.S, Washington , U.S

☆ We 'probably have more work to do' to get the underlying inflation, says Cleveland Fed president
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe 'probably have more work to do' to get the underlying inflation, says Cleveland Fed presidentLoretta Mester, Cleveland Federal Reserve president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how much Mester's outlook has changed, what's happening in the global macro economy, and more.

Persons: Loretta Mester Organizations: Cleveland Fed, Cleveland Federal Reserve

☆ Banks can manage outflow risk in Fed's new payment service system, Mester says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Mester acknowledged concerns that FedNow, a real-time, all-hours payment system the central bank is making available to banks, could exacerbate banking troubles by facilitating fast outflows from financial institutions, in effect super-charging a potential bank run. She said it will be up to the users of FedNow themselves to use transfer limits. "Future releases of the FedNow Service may allow configurable transaction limits by customer type, if such limits are deemed useful," she added. Mester said banks can also plan for how they can tap Fed emergency lending and private sources of liquidity, should they need it. Mester's comments on mitigating the financial stability risks of the real-time payment system were rooted in events in the spring, when trouble at a limited number of banks spooked the global financial system, and were in part rooted in anxious customers moving funds from affected banks very quickly.

Persons: Loretta Mester, Mester, Banks, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: YORK, Cleveland Federal, National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Dollar swoons in upbeat inflation vigil
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWorld markets leaned positively into another critical U.S. inflation report later on Wednesday, seeding a dollar (.DXY) slide to two-month lows that's revved-up yen and sterling gains. And June's CPI readout should be a marker if the consensus forecast for almost a full percentage-point drop in the headline inflation rate to two year lows of just 3.1% is borne out. Still, encouraged by a screed of other positive disinflation signals this week, U.S. markets are relatively buoyant going into the release and still feel the end of the Fed rate rise campaign is nigh. UK bank stocks pushed higher on the rates view and a relatively clean bill of health from Wednesday's financial stability report from the BOE. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand paused its long-running rate rise campaign early on Tuesday.

Persons: Mike Dolan, BOE, Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Loretta Mester, Joe Biden, Nick Macfie Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, yearend, Treasury, Bank of Japan, Bank of, recoiling, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Canada, Japan's Nikkei, Microsoft, Activision, Richmond Federal, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Cleveland Fed, NATO, . Treasury, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, Shanghai, Hong Kong, British, Vilnius

PinnedInflation data released on Wednesday showed a pronounced cooling and offered some of the most hopeful news since the Federal Reserve began trying to tame rapid price increases 16 months ago. But Federal Reserve officials are still trying to assess whether the cool down is likely to be quick and complete. Officials have signaled in recent weeks that they are likely to raise interest rates at their July 25-26 meeting. For one thing, the cost of housing as measured by the Consumer Price Index — which relies on rent prices — is coming down sharply. Interest rates increases work partly by slowing the job market and cooling wage increases, so the Fed’s fight against inflation and the strength of the labor market are closely tied.

Persons: ”, Laura Rosner, Warburton, it’s, . Rosner, Airfares, “, Beth Weaver, Loretta Mester, ” Julia Pollak Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Consumer, Buick GMC, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, ZipRecruiter Locations: Erie, Pa

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