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☆ A boom in one corner of the options market could bring 'volmageddon' and jolt the stock market in a big way
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The rising popularity of short-term options poses a big threat to the stock market, according to JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic. Zero-day-to-expiry options allow traders to hedge market positions over a very short period of time. According to Kolanovic, the rise of these option strategies could amplify any up or down move in the stock market. Kolanovic's reference to "volmageddon" is rooted in the February 2018 stock market scare that saw a surge in market volatility and a massive drop in stock prices as investors grew concerned about the potential ramifications of former President Donald Trump's trade war with China. But that downside move was amplified by a volatility implosion tied to the rising popularity of inverse VIX products, which represent bets against the future direction of market volatility.

☆ JPMorgan’s top strategist says investors are 'taunting' the Fed and a sell-off is overdue
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Investors are messing with the wrong central bank, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic said Wednesday. "There is an old adage, 'don't fight the Fed,' but this behavior is not just fighting but also taunting the Fed with crypto, meme stocks, and unprofitable companies responding best to Fed communications," Kolanovic, the bank's chief global market strategist, said in a note to clients. He pointed out that since the Fed's rate hike on Feb. 1 , the Nasdaq-100 has climbed around 3%. Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury note yield has jumped about 60 basis points in that time. US2Y YTD mountain 2-year note yield in 2023 This type of market behavior could lead to a sell-off in short order, according to Kolanovic.

☆ Wall Street luminaries say it's time to get out of the stock market before the Fed crushes the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Tuesday's CPI data showed inflation climbed 0.5% in January, slightly higher than expected, and year-over-year it slowed to 6.4%. Prices, it seems, aren't cooling down as smoothly or quickly as anyone wants, especially the Fed. To Kolanovic, a recession is all but guaranteed if the Fed is serious about its 2% inflation target. And like Kolanovic, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management investment chief Lisa Shalett warned that Fed policy is going to pull stocks lower. US stock futures fall early Wednesday, as investors pick over yesterday's CPI inflation report to assess what it means for the Fed.

☆ A recession indicator is blaring louder than it did before the 2008 downturn - but 'no one seems to care'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A New York Fed economic model shows the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are at 57%. That's worse than it was before 2008 and the highest it's been since the early 1980s, according to DataTrek Research. Currently, the model shows the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are at 57%. Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread DataTrek Research, NY FedMarkets have rallied to start the new year. The realistic chance of a downturn hasn't been fully priced in, in his view, and investors should fade 2023's early stock rally.

☆ Why all the big bank equity analysts think the market is going to drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

After a stellar start to 2023, many big bank analysts are skeptical that this rally can continue and urge investors to prepare for another leg lower. "We believe investors should fade the YTD rally as recession risks are merely postponed rather than diminished," wrote JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic in a January note to clients. Meanwhile, Barclays' Venu Krishna wrote in a Monday note that equities have "jumped the gun." Several factors, including falling recession risks and a correction in the CBOE Volatility Index and other spreads, also support a long-due fade in the market rally, wrote Credit Suisse's Patrick Palfrey in a January note. "We continue to recommend that equity investors position defensively and be prepared for additional volatility ahead," she said.

☆ The sizzling rally in stocks is nearing its end as investors are about to realize a recession has merely been postponed, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The sizzling rally in stocks will come to an end, as the risks of recession have only been postponed, JPMorgan said. Though investors are less worried about a downturn, some areas of GDP data are still weak, and interest rates remain high. "A weak trajectory for US domestic demand keeps recession risk elevated, even as the tightness in labor markets postpones this recession risk." "A weak trajectory for US domestic demand keeps recession risk elevated, even as the tightness in labor markets postpones this recession risk," the note said. That weakness is also exacerbated by high interest rates, strategists said, with the fed funds rate approaching 5%.

☆ 'Outright negative' on stocks: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic braces for correction, hard landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Stephanie Landsman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic is abstaining from the early 2023 rally. Instead, the Institutional Investor hall-of-famer is bracing for a 10% or more correction in the first half of this year, telling investors he's "outright negative" on the market. So, that has to clash at some point," the firm's chief market strategist and global research co-head told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Tuesday. "We think things first turn south, get much worse," said Kolanovic. Kolanovic believes they helped create a narrative the worse is behind us and a recession "somehow magically " happened last year.

☆ JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic explains why he's "outright negative" on stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic explains why he's "outright negative" on stocksJPMorgan Chief Market Strategist Marko Kolanovic joins CNBC's "Fast Money" to discuss his outlook on the U.S. stock market.

☆ Investors should sell stocks and take profits as the latest rally is set to falter amid surprises from the Fed and weak corporate earnings, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors should sell stocks and take profits as the current market rally is set to fizzle, according to JPMorgan. The bank said stocks will face several curveballs this year thrown by the Fed and weak corporate earnings. "We... are reluctant to chase the past week's rally as recession and overtightening risks remain high," JPMorgan said. Given the risk-reward profile, JPMorgan increased its underweight recommendation for equities and took profits in credit in its model portfolio. While JPMorgan has a bearish view on stocks in the short-term, longer term it still sees the potential for upside.

☆ JPMorgan's Kolanovic gets even more underweight stocks as overtightening risk rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

JPMorgan's top market strategist Marko Kolanovic trimmed his allocation to equities further on concern the stock market is getting too optimistic about a economic soft landing by the Federal Reserve. Kolanovic, who gained a following for calling the stock market rebound during the pandemic in 2020, remains bullish on commodities. Within global equities, he is overweight China/emerging markets stocks on the reduction of Covid restrictions. Here's the asset allocation model from the bank now: Equities: Underweight by 3% (from 2% underweight) Govt. Despite being too optimistic during most of last year, the strategist said this asset allocation model still beat its benchmark.

☆ Traders don't want to believe the Fed, so get used to a lot of choppiness
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Then Fed officials get on the tape say they're going to keep raising rates and keep them high until hell freezes over. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic on Monday said the central bank should raise interest rates above 5% and stay there for "a long time." Inflation data continues to show signs of cooling, but it's still high, and the Fed doesn't want to declare victory so they keep jawboning the markets down. The source of tension is that the trading community doesn't want to believe the Fed, and many are arguing the Fed is using stale data. "Wall Street does not believe the story being spun by the Fed," Harry Katica from Saut Strategy told his clients.

☆ A China ‘spending boom?’ Your guide to emerging market investing in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-26 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

"We're going to have a spending boom in China, at least in the first half of the year," said Mehran Nakhjavani, emerging market strategist at MRB Partners. How to play emerging markets in 2023 Regardless, there are several ways for investors to get exposure to emerging markets. Perhaps the easiest way is by investing in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM). Another vehicle through which to play emerging markets is the First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDex ETF (FEMS) . The fund is the best-performing emerging markets ETF this year, according to Morningstar, with a year-to-date return of just over 1%.

☆ Here's why 2023 could be another solid year for dividend stocks — and how to play it
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Dividend stocks proved valuable for investors in a turbulent 2022, and many investment professionals are sticking with the group for next year. The SPDR Portfolio S & P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD) was down just about 1% for the year on a total return basis, easily outpacing the broader market. And with consensus expectations pointing to high interest rates and slow or even negative economic growth in 2023, dividend stocks could have quite a while left in the spotlight. Many major shops on Wall Street are bullish on dividend stocks in one form or another heading into 2023. Credit Suisse's strategist Andrew Garthwaite said in a note to clients that he was overweight dividend aristocrats, or stocks that have a long track record of growing their payouts. To be sure, investing in dividend stocks can be tricky during economic downturns, as falling profits can lead to dividend cuts or even suspensions.

☆ Recession drumbeat gets louder as more U.S. CEOs strike mellow note for 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Medha Singh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A Reuters poll of economists published on Thursday showed that U.S. economic growth was expected to slow to 0.3% in 2023 following a 1.9% rise this year. Tesla Inc CEO Elon Musk said in October a recession would last until the spring of 2024. For 2023, analysts expect profit growth at S&P 500 companies to slow to 4.9%, after rising 5.8% in 2022, according to Refinitiv IBES data. While forecasts for the size and timing of recession vary, expectations for an economic recovery largely hinge on the Fed's stance on rates. S&P 500 performance YTDReporting by Medha Singh and Johann Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'SilvaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ S&P lows likely be re-tested early next year, says JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailS&P lows likely be re-tested early next year, says JPMorgan's Marko KolanovicMarko Kolanovic, JPMorgan chief global markets strategist, joins the 'Halftime Report' to discuss JPMorgan's market call around a growing recession risk and the possibility markets could retest their lows early next year.

☆ JPMorgan says sell energy stocks in tactical trade due to the jump in shares and drop in oil prices
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

JPMorgan equity strategists recommend a tactical trade out of energy stocks because the sector has gained 60% so far this year and crude oil prices are now lower in 2022. Energy stocks rallied this year, with expectations for much higher oil prices. Yet, energy stocks remain sharply higher. "We believe that there is a tactical trade to sell energy stocks (either outright or relative to oil). The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund , which represents the S & P energy sector, was up 52% for the year, as of Thursday's close.

☆ JPMorgan thinks emerging markets will be the star next year, returning 14%. How to play it
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Emerging markets could be a big winner for investors next year, even though a global economic slowdown seems likely, according to JPMorgan. Chief global markets strategist Marko Kolanovic said in a note to clients on Thursday that emerging markets could rally next year even as major economies slow, as markets look ahead to the next economic rebound. The iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) is the biggest, at roughly $8 billion of assets under management. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) has already outperformed the U.S. market this year, rising more than 13% on a total return basis. Another area of emerging markets that could rally next year is technology, due in part to the "expected peaking of US rates and forecasted bottom in tech sub-sectors especially memory," JPMorgan said.

☆ Stocks are likely to get smacked down in the first half of 2023 before markets improve
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The outlook for next year is a bit better for stocks, but the first half sounds like it could be downright ugly. The strategist expects lows to be retested due to what could be a significant decline in earnings as interest rates rise. Jeff Kleintop, Charles Schwab's chief global investment strategist, expects a shallow recession may already have begun. He predicts the first half will be worse for stocks than the back half of the year, with a choppiness similar to the past six months. Calvasina expects small caps to be an area of outperformance, and she still sees value in energy and financials.

☆ Top JPMorgan stock strategist says the bear market lows are likely to be retested soon
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The top stock strategist at JPMorgan thinks investors should stop buying the dip as the impact of Federal Reserve rate hikes is about to hit the economy, corporate earnings and share prices. "We believe that further market and economic weakness may occur as a result of central bank overtightening," said Marko Kolanovic, the bank's chief global market strategist, in a note Wednesday. "Our view on risk markets in 2023 consists of 2 periods: market turmoil and economic decline that will force interest rate cuts, and subsequent economic and asset recovery," said Kolanovic. "Until late summer this year we thought that corporate and consumer resilience will be able to withstand the significant increase of interest rates, wealth destruction, and global geopolitical uncertainty," he wrote. "The recent crisis of crypto schemes is likely not over, and its end will put additional pressure on risk sentiment and consumers," the report states.

☆ Global stocks to grind higher, lacklustre year ahead - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Analysts cut their 12-month predictions compared with three months ago for most of the 17 global indexes covered in Reuters polls conducted between Nov. 14-29. The still mostly optimistic forecasts for stock markets to grind higher depend on mild recessions or none at all. Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) was predicted to end next year at 4,200, only about 6% higher than current levels. But the survey predicted relatively better performance for emerging market stock markets. Up only 4% year to date, Brazil's benchmark Bovespa stock index (.BVSP) was predicted to rally 13% by end-2023.

☆ Global stocks to grind higher, lacklustre year ahead: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

☆ The stock market won't see a sustained rally until the Fed starts cutting interest rates - and that won't occur until these 3 things happen, according to JPMorgan
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market won't see a sustained rally until the Fed starts to cut interest rates, JPMorgan said. The Fed will need to see a combination of three things to start cutting interest rates, according to JPMorgan. Instead, the Fed needs to cut interest rates for the stock market to mount a sustained rally that could give way to new highs. And a resilient economy means the likelihood of interest rate cuts is far off, according to JPMorgan. Until then, investors shouldn't put too much stock in a stock market rally unless the Fed gives signs that it's going to pivot away from tightening and towards easing financial conditions.

☆ JPMorgan's top stock strategist says use the latest rally to take some profits
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors should utilize last week's rally to cut back their equity exposure and take some profits ahead of a looming recession, a top stock strategist at JPMorgan says. "While we remain OW equities and long-term positive, we use the sharp rally from last week as an opportunity to moderately reduce our equity OW given the above risks." However, despite the strong comeback, recession risks persist and appear "difficult to avoid" as the fed funds rate hovers close to 5%, Kolanovic wrote. Through the end of 2022, Kolanovic expects equity valuations to largely reflect commentary from central banks worldwide. Along with the slight sentiment shift on equities, Kolanovic exited the bank's long dollar bias to one that's neutral on the greenback and short the dollar versus the yen.

☆ Investors should cash in gains from the recent stock surge because a recession looms if the Fed doesn't pivot, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market's rally since the October CPI report is an opportunity for investors to trim equity exposure, according to JPMorgan. The bank said despite the upside move in stocks, an economic recession remains a real possibility if the Fed doesn't pivot. The October CPI report showed prices rose 7.7% on a year-over-year basis, below expectations for a 7.9% rise and well below the peak in June of 9.1%. That scenario ultimately sets the US economy up for a potential stagflation scenario in the US, "especially with the Fed almost solely focusing on inflation, stronger US dollar, and recent declines in commodity space," he said. "After the strong CPI prints of the last several months, we believe inflation is heading the other way," Kolanovic concluded.

REUTERS/Ricardo Moraes/File Photo/File PhotoLONDON, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The pace and scale of rate hikes delivered by central banks around the globe in October slowed down dramatically following September's historic peak. The latest moves have brought total rate hikes in 2022 from G10 central banks to 2,050 bps. Emerging markets interest ratesMarkets had recently taken heart from indications that rate hikes from major central banks - especially the U.S. Federal Reserve - were slowing down. "We see central banks on a path to overtighten policy," said Boivin on Monday in a weekly outlook note from the world's largest asset manager. "We think the Fed, like other developed market central banks, will only stop when the severe damage from rate hikes is clearer.

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