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U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 97 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $71.86. A stronger dollar can weigh on oil demand by making the fuel more expensive for holders of other currencies. High interest rates boost borrowing costs, which can slow the economy and reduce oil demand. The strength of April U.S. economic data in addition to optimism about the debt ceiling negotiations have strengthened market expectations of a further hike, ANZ Research said in a note on Thursday. Another factor that could reduce oil demand was a fire in Mexico at the Salina Cruz refinery owned by Mexican state oil company Pemex.

☆ Debt ceiling optimism helps lift S&P 500, Nasdaq
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The benchmark S&P 500 index (.SPX) rebounded from early declines on news that top U.S. congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy said a deal to raise or suspend the debt ceiling could potentially be reached in time to hold a House vote next week. On Wednesday, President Joe Biden and McCarthy reiterated their aim to strike a deal soon to raise the $31.4 trillion federal debt ceiling and agreed to talk as soon as Sunday. The debt ceiling has drawn attention away from uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by a 1.12-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.17-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 23 new 52-week highs and seven new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 77 new highs and 74 new lows.

☆ Fed's hawks make a pitch against a rate-hike pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

On Thursday, rate-futures markets reflected a one-in-three chance of a June rate hike, compared with a one-in-10-chance seen a week ago. The Fed has lifted borrowing costs at each meeting since March 2022, bringing them from near zero to a 5.00-5.25% range as of early this month. Consumer price inflation, for instance, edged down to a 4.9% annual pace in April but is still far above the Fed's 2% goal. However, his embrace of the idea that there is still a lot of policy tightening in the pipeline suggests he could be comfortable with a pause. Dallas Fed's Logan had the opposite presumption.

President Joe Biden and McCarthy reiterated their aim to strike a deal soon on Wednesday to raise the $31.4 trillion federal debt ceiling and agreed to talk as soon as Sunday. Growth stocks led gains, with Nvidia Corp (NVDA.O), Apple Inc (AAPL.O) and Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) rising between 1% and 4.4%. Bath & Body Works Inc (BBWI.N) gained 9.6% after the beauty and skincare firm raised its annual profit forecast. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 1.07-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 1.04-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 22 new 52-week highs and four new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 68 new highs and 50 new lows.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) constituent Cisco Systems Inc's (CSCO.O) shares fell 4.3% in premarket trading after it said a large backlog of products weighed on demand for new orders from customers. Shares of Walmart Inc (WMT.N) rose 1.7% after the retailer raised its annual sales and profit targets, befitting from inflation-wary consumers trading down to cheaper groceries. ET, Dow e-minis were down 31 points, or 0.09%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 1.75 points, or 0.04%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 15 points, or 0.11%. Bath & Body Works Inc (BBWI.N) gained 13% after the beauty and skincare firm raised its annual profit forecast. Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he welcomed and expected more investment from global chipmakers in the country.

☆ Fed's Logan: data does not yet show June pause is appropriate
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

May 18 (Reuters) - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan on Thursday said she's concerned that "much too high" inflation is not cooling fast enough yet to allow the Fed to pause its interest-rate hike campaign in June. "The data in coming weeks could yet show that it is appropriate to skip a meeting," Logan said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Texas Bankers Association in San Antonio, referring to the Fed's twice-quarterly policy-setting meetings, the next of which takes place June 13-14. "As of today, though, we aren’t there yet." Reporting by Ann SaphirOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed Officials Suggest June Rate Rise Will Be Close Call
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Federal Reserve officials indicated the decision to raise interest rates at their meeting next month was shaping up as a close call, with another policy maker Thursday hinting she would support another increase. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, a key centrist on the Fed’s policy-setting committee, suggested that barring further weakness in the economic outlook, she would be prepared to lift the benchmark federal-funds rate by a quarter percentage point at the central bank’s June 13-14 meeting.

☆ Morning Bid: Get ready for the debt ceiling rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin BucklandEuropean shares look poised to rally after a wave of optimism that a U.S. debt ceiling deal could be reached as soon as the weekend, which lifted stocks on Wall Street and in Asia. Analysts highlighted how both parties agreed to new, smaller teams to continue negotiations, which they took as a sign that discussions have moved to a more advanced stage. Cash available at the U.S. Treasury general account, used to pay for all official U.S. obligations, is draining fast as extraordinary measures are exhausted, pending a debt ceiling deal to raise the limit. The Nasdaq is on the cusp of a 13-month peak, and the Dax is hovering near its highest since January of last year. Reporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Edmund KlamannOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dallas Fed President Logan says current data doesn't justify pausing rate hikes yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said Thursday that the economic data points so far don't justify skipping a rate increase at the central bank's next meeting in June. While noting some progress in bringing down inflation and cooling the labor market, Logan said the Fed still has work to do in achieving its goal for price stability. But she expressed concern that what she's seen so far has indicated only modest impact from the Fed rate hikes, which have totaled 5 percentage points. And it's a long way from here to 2% inflation," Logan said, referring to the Fed's longer-run goal. She noted that the Fed's preferred inflation data point, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, ran at a 4.9% annualized pace in the first quarter.

☆ There are 2 things needed to sustain this year's blistering rally in tech stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

It said a further rally needs continued profitability at tech companies and rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Nasdaq Composite on Wednesday closed at a year-to-date high, at 12,500.57, and it's up more than 19% since the start of the year. While Federal Reserve anticipates a "mild recession" starting later this year, policymakers have indicated they won't begin cutting interest rates until 2024. High interest rates can hurt the potential value of future profit at growth companies. DataTrek said the Fed battling hot inflation "was not a factor during the winning years," it had outlined for the Nasdaq Composite.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) constituent Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO.O) slipped 1.7% after it said a large backlog of products weighed on demand for new orders from customers. Shares of Walmart Inc (WMT.N) rose 2.8% after the retailer raised its annual sales and profit targets, benefiting from inflation-wary consumers trading down to cheaper groceries. And you got a little follow through from the optimism around getting a (debt ceiling) deal done," said Thomas Hayes, chairman at Great Hill Capital LLC. Bath & Body Works Inc (BBWI.N) gained 8.7% after the beauty and skincare firm raised its annual profit forecast. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 2.30-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 1.47-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

☆ Tech leads US stocks higher as traders ride AI hype and cheer debt ceiling progress
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Tech led the stock market higher on Thursday as investors chase the growing hype around artificial intelligence. Investors are also looking toward progress on the debt ceiling negotiations and the potential for another Fed rate hike in June. Investors were also closely monitoring progress on debt ceiling negotiations, with the June 1 "X-date" now less than two weeks away. While President Biden traveled to Japan for the G7 summit, he said he would cut his trip early and return to Washington, D.C. to continue the debt ceiling negotiations. Fed President James Bullard also said on Thursday that another rate hike in June is possible.

☆ Treasury yields fall as investors weigh Fed rate policy path
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Tuesday as investors assessed what could be next for Federal Reserve interest rates following a slew of comments from central bank officials. Investors looked to comments from Fed officials and economic data as they weighed what could be next for interest rate policy and whether the U.S. economy is likely to contract. That comes after last week's inflation data, which was slightly below expectations, led many investors to hope for rate cuts in the second half of the year. Concerns about elevated rates dragging the U.S. economy into a recession have grown louder in recent weeks.

AT&T (T.N) shares dropped 10.4% after the wireless carrier missed market estimates for first-quarter revenue and free cash flow. The S&P 500's rally to start the year is set to be tested by a first-quarter earnings season that investors expect to show tepid results. “The market has been overbought for the last week or two," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. In other earnings news, American Express Co (AXP.N) profit missed Wall Street estimates and its shares fell 1%. Shares of Lam Research (LRCX.O) rose 7.2% after the chip-making equipment supplier's revenue topped estimates, while shares of D.R.

☆ U.S. financial system vulnerable to bond market stress, Fed's Logan says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Logan, who holds a vote in this year's Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meetings, did not comment on the outlook for monetary policy and the economy in her prepared remarks. She spoke amid ongoing concern about how financial markets, most notably the sector that trades U.S. government debt, will respond to the next chapter of stress. That said, a semi-annual monetary policy report released by the Fed on Friday sounded a somewhat sanguine note on market risk at the current moment. Trading in the Treasury market has been "orderly," although that particular market was more challenged on the liquidity front compared to others, it said. "The public and private sectors must work together to enhance market resilience so that these episodes will be far less frequent going forward," Logan said.

☆ Fed's Logan says financial system vulnerable to bond market stress
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Logan, who holds a vote on this year’s Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meetings, did not comment on the outlook for monetary policy and the economy in her prepared remarks. Before joining the Dallas Fed last year as its leader, Logan was a key official at the New York Fed designing and implementing the monetary policy directives of the FOMC. Those increases coupled with the Fed’s ongoing efforts to shed bonds to reduce its market footprint, have raised questions about what authorities might do to support markets in the future. A paper this week from the New York Fed said the official sector needs to move toward finding a more formalized approach to providing support. Logan said authorities are continuing to work on methods to formalize how they might intervene and to shore up underlying market strength.

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 3, 2023. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell on Friday after touching a four-month high in the previous session but stayed above the 4% level. Nine of the 11 major S&P sectors were higher, with communication services (.SPLRCL) and technology (.SPLRCT) indexes leading gains. Apple Inc rose 1.9% after Morgan Stanley said the stock could rally more than 20% this year on potential hardware subscription. Dell Technologies Inc (DELL.N) slipped 0.9% after it forecast current-quarter revenue and profit below Wall Street estimates, hit by an ongoing demand slump in its PC business.

☆ Futures rise as yields retreat from highs
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell on Friday after touching a four-month high in the previous session but stayed above the 4% level. Central bank officials including Bostic and Fed Dallas President Lorie Logan are scheduled to speak later in the day. ET, Dow e-minis were up 82 points, or 0.25%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 13 points, or 0.33%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 35 points, or 0.29%. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE.N) rose 2.3% after the laptop maker gave an upbeat full-year earnings forecast. Reporting by Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'SilvaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar finds friends after sticky U.S. inflation readout
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 15 (Reuters) - The dollar found some support on Wednesday after stubbornly high U.S. inflation suggested interest rates are going to remain high for longer than investors had expected. The U.S. dollar climbed to a six-week high of 133.30 yen and sat not far below that at 132.73 early in the Asia session. "Inflation remains too high," Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso said. There is not much good news for (the Fed) that is looking for inflation to head down much further towards its 2% target." Federal Reserve officials said the U.S. central bank will need to keep gradually raising interest rates to beat inflation.

☆ Treasury yields fall as investors digest latest inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Treasury yields declined on Wednesday as investors digested January's consumer price index report and looked ahead to further economic data and remarks from Federal Reserve speakers slated for the week. On Tuesday, the latest reading of the consumer price index, which tracks price changes for a range of goods and services, came in higher than expected and showed that inflation rose by 0.5% in January. Speaking at the New York Bank Association after the release of the CPI report, New York Fed President John Williams suggested that the Fed's battle with inflation was not yet over. The Fed has been hiking interest rates in an effort to cool the economy and ease inflation. On Wednesday, investors will be following the release of retail sales figures and awaiting the release of the producer price index report, as well as fresh comments from Fed officials on Thursday.

☆ Gold slips as U.S. inflation data heightens rate-hike jitters
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was down 0.5% at $1,845.96 per ounce, as of 0538 GMT, after falling to its lowest since early January on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $1,856.60. Rising interest rates discourage investors from placing money in non-yielding assets such as gold. Fed officials said on Tuesday the U.S. central bank would need to keep gradually raising interest rates to beat inflation. Money markets expect the Fed's target rate to peak at 5.263% in July from a current range of 4.50% to 4.75%.

☆ Fed must be ready to hike rates for longer than now expected, Logan says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed last year lifted interest rates further and faster than any time since the 1980s to fight inflation that, by the central bank's preferred measure, has run for two years at about triple its 2% target. Key to that, Logan said on Tuesday, will be substantial further slowing in wage growth and better "balance" in what is now an "incredibly strong" labor market. Logan also said she will need to see "convincing" signs that inflation is dropping sustainably and in a timely manner toward the 2% target. There are also risks, she said, of going too far and weakening the labor market more than necessary in pursuit of slowing inflation. "My own view is that, given the risks, we shouldn't lock in on a peak interest rate or a precise path of rates," she said.

The Fed's policy rate is currently in a 4.50%-4.75% target range. By the Fed's preferred measure, inflation is still running at a 5.0% annual rate. Harker last week flagged the prospect of rate cuts in 2024 should inflation continue to ease. However, following the CPI release on Tuesday, traders of interest rate futures now see the Fed raising borrowing costs three more times, bringing the policy rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range by July, if not June. "My own view is that, given the risks, we shouldn't lock in on a peak interest rate or a precise path of rates," she said.

☆ Fed officials see lots of room to shed bonds from balance sheet
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

It now aims to unload just shy of $100 billion per month, and so far that approach has taken nearly $420 billion of bonds off the Fed's balance sheet. Fed officials and outside observers don't expect that to happen again. "So I would expect, you know, the process of balance sheet reduction to continue as it is." When the Fed announced its run-off plans last year, "all the interest rate effects from balance sheet tightening happened right away. Still, Fed balance sheet cuts should "stay intact until early 2024," analysts with forecasting firm LH Meyer wrote.

☆ Gold edges higher as investors weigh Fed slowdown chances
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Ashitha Shivaprasad | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,906.01 per ounce, as of 0252 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,906.00. Few Fed officials signalled on Wednesday that they would push on with more interest rate hikes, while Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said they supported a slower pace of tightening. Lower interest rates tend to boost bullion's appeal as they decrease the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Spot silver lost 0.2% to $23.38 per ounce, platinum was flat at $1,038.38, and palladium fell 0.1% to $1,716.13.

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