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Summary BOJ 'strongly acknowledges' side-effects of YCC - UchidaUchida rules out chance of early end to negative ratesJapan seeing signs of change in corporate behaviour - UchidaTOKYO, July 7 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said the central bank will maintain its yield curve control policy from the perspective of sustaining ultra-loose monetary conditions, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Friday. With inflation exceeding its 2% target for more than a year, markets are simmering with speculation the BOJ will tweak yield curve control (YCC) - a policy that guides short-term interest rates at -0.1% and caps the 10-year bond yield around 0%. Uchida said the BOJ "strongly acknowledges" the side-effects of YCC such as the impact on market function, according to Nikkei. But the central bank must support the economy amid recent signs of change in corporate wage and price-setting behaviour, Uchida was quoted as saying. Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Leslie Adler and Sandra MalerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Uchida Uchida, Uchida TOKYO, Shinichi Uchida, Uchida, YCC, Leika Kihara, Leslie Adler, Sandra Maler Organizations: Bank of Japan, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: Japan
Factbox: Japan's toolkit to combat sharp yen declines
  + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
ESCALATE VERBAL INTERVENTION - HIGHLY LIKELYJapanese authorities began jawboning markets this week, describing recent yen falls as "sharp and one-sided". If the pace of yen declines accelerates, authorities may escalate their warnings to promise "decisive action" against speculative moves. Such remarks, aired prior to Japan's previous yen-buying intervention last year, would signal that Tokyo was edging closer to directly intervening in the currency market. This means the chance of intervention will rise if the yen's declines are rapid and viewed as driven mostly by speculative trading. BOJ RAISES INTEREST RATES - HIGHLY UNLIKELYThe Bank of Japan (BOJ) has vowed to keep interest rates ultra-low to support the economy, even as inflation exceeded its 2% target for more than a year.
Persons: Masato Kanda, Leika Kihara, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Clarence Fernandez Organizations: Bank of Japan, Authorities, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Tokyo, Asia, United States, Japan, U.S
When Japanese authorities escalate their verbal warnings to say they "stand ready to act decisively" against speculative moves, that is a sign intervention may be imminent. When Japan intervenes to stem yen rises, the Ministry of Finance issues short-term bills, raising yen it then sells to weaken the Japanese currency. That means there are limits to how long Japan could keep defending the yen, unlike for yen-selling intervention - where Japan can essentially print yen by issuing bills. Japanese authorities also consider it important to seek the support of Group of Seven partners, notably the United States if the intervention involves the dollar. Washington gave tacit approval when Japan intervened last year, reflecting recent close bilateral relations.
Persons: Leika Kihara, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Kentaro Sugiyama, William Mallard Organizations: Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance, Market, Japan, Seven, Washington, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan, Tokyo, United States, Washington
In Asia, while factory activity expanded marginally in China, it contracted in Japan and South Korea as Asia's economic recovery struggled to maintain momentum. REUTERS/Siyi LiuChina's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI eased to 50.5 in June from 50.9 in May, the private survey showed. The figure, combined with Friday's official survey that showed factory activity extending declines, adds to evidence the world's No. South Korea's PMI fell to 47.8 in June, extending its downturn to a record 12th consecutive month on weak demand in Asia and Europe. Factory activity also contracted in Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia, the PMI surveys showed.
Persons: Rory Fennessy, lockdowns, Toru Nishihama, Siyi Liu China's, Jonathan Cable, Sam Holmes, David Evans Organizations: PMI, European Central Bank, Oxford Economics, P, Dai, Research, REUTERS, P Global, Reuters, Jibun, of, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Japan, South Korea, China, TOKYO, Europe, Britain, Asia, United States, European, U.S, Dezhou, Shandong province, South, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, of Japan's
While manufacturing activity expanded marginally in China, it contracted in powerhouses Japan and South Korea as Asia's fragile economic recovery struggled to maintain momentum. New orders from overseas customers decreased in June at the fastest rate in four months reflecting feeble demand from China, the Japan PMI survey showed. Factory activity also contracted in Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia, the PMI surveys showed. Asia's economy is heavily reliant on the strength of China's economy, which saw growth rebound in the first quarter but subsequently fell short of expectations. The fate of Asia's economy, including China's, will have a huge impact on the global economy with aggressive monetary tightening to curb inflation likely to weigh on U.S. and European growth.
Persons: Liu, lockdowns, Toru Nishihama, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, Dai, Research, P Global, Reuters, Jibun, Japan PMI, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Dezhou, Shandong province, China, Japan, South Korea, TOKYO, Asia, U.S, Europe, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia
"The tankan confirmed our view that Japan's economy is on track for a moderate recovery," said Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Economic Research Institute. "While input prices have declined, output prices continue to rise in a sign companies are being able to pass on costs. Big manufacturers expect business conditions to improve three months ahead, while non-manufacturers project a deterioration on worries over high costs, the tankan showed. The tankan showed corporate inflation expectations moderate in June from three months ago, but remaining above the BOJ's target five years down the road. Companies expect inflation to hit 2.6% a year from now, down from a 2.8% projection made in March, and 2.2% in three years, also lower than 2.3% in March.
Persons: Atsushi Takeda, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Big, Bank of Japan's, Itochu Economic Research Institute, Nikkei, Companies, Thomson Locations: TOKYO
However, there is uncertainty about how long households can weather price hikes and generate inflation driven more by demand, which holds the key to whether BOJ's 2% target can be achieved in a sustainable manner, analysts say. The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 3.2% in June from a year earlier, accelerating from a 3.1% gain in May. While companies offered wage hikes unseen in three decades this year, inflation-adjusted real pay continues to fall in a sign of pain consumers are feeling from the wave of price hikes. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has repeatedly said the BOJ will maintain ultra-loose policy until stronger wage growth keeps inflation sustainably around its 2% target. "The BOJ may revise up its inflation forecast but probably keep policy steady in July," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
Persons: Yoshiki Shinke, Teikoku Databank, Kazuo Ueda, Ryozo Himino, Takeshi Minami, Takahiko Wada, Leika, Satoshi Sugiyama, Kantaro, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Dai, Research, Reuters, BOJ, Norinchukin Research, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, TOKYO
The inflation figures for Tokyo, which is seen as a leading indicator of nationwide trends, will likely keep alive expectations the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will phase out its massive stimulus this year. The increase in the Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, followed a 3.1% gain in May and compared with a median market forecast for a 3.3% rise. With inflation already exceeding its target, markets are rife with speculation the BOJ could soon phase out ultra-loose monetary policy under new governor Kazuo Ueda. Ueda has repeatedly said inflation will slow in coming months as cost-push factors dissipate, and that the BOJ will maintain ultra-loose policy until stronger wage growth ensures Japan can sustainably see inflation hit its 2% target. Reporting by Takahiko Wada and Leika Kihara; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Takahiko Wada, Leika, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, TOKYO, Japan's, Japan
The swap deal expired in 2015 amid worsening relations over issues related to Japan's wartime occupation of the Korean Peninsula, and its restoration would symbolise the improvement in relations, analysts say. "We must strongly raise the momentum for historic improvement of Japan-South Korea relations. The ministers will also discuss global economic developments, infrastructure investment in developing countries, and the role both countries could play in multilateral financial cooperation. The bilateral finance talks, the eighth of their kind, were last held in 2016. Reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Leika Kihara, Simon Cameron-Moore and Gerry DoyleOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Yoon Suk Yeol, Kim Keon, Issei Kato TOKYO, Shunichi Suzuki, Choo Kyungho, Masato Kanda, Suzuki, Choo, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Leika Kihara, Simon Cameron, Moore, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Tokyo International, REUTERS, Japanese Finance, Korean, Thomson Locations: Korean, Tokyo, Japan, South Korea, China, North Korea, Ukraine
It was the first time the BOJ summary showed a board member explicitly mentioning the need for an early debate of a tweak to YCC, which contrasts with Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks ruling out any imminent change in policy. Under YCC, the BOJ guides short-term interest rates at -0.1% and the 10-year bond yield around zero as part of efforts to sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target. Some market players bet the central bank could tweak YCC, such as by widening the allowance band set around the 10-year yield target, as early as July to address market distortions caused by its huge bond buying. FRESH YEN WORRIESYCC is also blamed by some analysts for causing an unwelcome yen fall that pushes up raw material import costs. However, Kanda stopped short of saying Japan was ready to take "decisive action" - language he used shortly before Japan stepped into the currency market last year.
Persons: policymaker, Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda, Daisaku Ueno, MItsubishi UFJ, MItsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, YCC, Masato Kanda, Kanda, Shunichi Suzuki, Japan's, Leika Kihara, Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, MItsubishi, MItsubishi UFJ Morgan, MItsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, Finance, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan, Asia
TOKYO, June 26 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan should discuss revising its yield curve control (YCC) policy at an early stage, a board member was quoted as saying at a June policy meeting, a summary of opinions at the rate review released on Monday. While the central bank should keep overall monetary policy ultra-loose, it should debate tweaking YCC to improve market function and mitigate its "high cost," the member was quoted as saying. It was the first time the BOJ summary showed a board member explicitly mentioning the need for an early debate of a tweak to YCC. "The Bank should maintain the overall framework of monetary easing for the time being," the member said. At the June meeting, the BOJ maintained ultra-easy monetary policy including its YCC targets - set at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and around 0% for the 10-year bond yield.
Persons: Naoki Tamura, Kazuo Ueda, Leika, Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: TOKYO
TOKYO, June 26 (Reuters) - Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Monday authorities will respond to any excessive moves in the currency market, warning that recent yen moves were "rapid." When asked about the chance of currency intervention, Kanda told reporters he would not rule out any options. He added that authorities were focusing on the pace of moves in the yen, rather than its levels. The dollar hit a seven-month high against the yen at 143.63 in New York on Friday. Reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto, writing by Leika Kihara; Editing by Kim Coghill and Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Masato Kanda, Kanda, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Leika Kihara, Kim Coghill, Jamie Freed Organizations: Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, New York
Core consumer inflation has now stayed above the central bank's 2% target for 14 straight months, casting doubt on its view the recent cost-driven inflation will prove temporary. "As the pass-through of rising costs runs its course, core consumer inflation will peak around summer," said Ryosuke Katagi, market economist at Mizuho Securities. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the need to keep loose policy until inflation is sustainably around 2% and accompanied by wage hikes. He has also said core consumer inflation will slow back below 2% by September or October, though sustained price rises have put that view into some doubt. In its last projections made in April, the BOJ expected core consumer inflation to hit 1.8% in the current fiscal year ending in March 2024.
Persons: Ryosuke, Stefan Angrick, Kazuo Ueda, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Mizuho Securities, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Moody's, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan's, Tokyo
Noguchi also warned of risks to Japan's economy, such as uncertainty over global economic and market developments. Under yield curve control (YCC), the BOJ sets a -0.1% target for short-term interest rates and caps the 10-year bond yield around 0% to reflate growth and inflation. With inflation exceeding its target, markets are simmering with speculation the BOJ will soon tweak YCC due to criticism the policy is distorting market pricing and crushing financial institutions' profit margins. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the need to keep monetary policy ultra-loose until there is more evidence wages will keep rising next year, helping Japan sustainably hit the 2% inflation target. Reporting by Leika Kihara Editing by Chang-Ran Kim and Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Asahi Noguchi, Noguchi, Seiji Adachi, Kazuo Ueda, Leika, Chang, Ran Kim, Sam Holmes Organizations: Noguchi, Global, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Japan, TOKYO, Naha
"If market conditions don't change much from now, the chance of us tweaking yield curve control in July to arrest any distortion in the yield curve will be small," he said. The remarks were the strongest yet from a BOJ policymaker ruling out the chance of a policy tweak at the next meeting scheduled on July 27-28. Adachi said the BOJ must look at consumer price data for July onward to judge whether inflation was overshooting its baseline scenario. But there's high uncertainty over our baseline inflation outlook, so it's premature to tweak monetary policy," he said in a speech to Kagoshima business leaders. "The BOJ must humbly monitor price and wage developments, and respond not too quickly, but also not too slowly" the second member said.
Persons: Seiji Adachi, Adachi, Kazuo Ueda, Leika, Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: KAGOSHIMA, Japan, Kagoshima
KAGOSHIMA, Japan, June 21 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan board member Seiji Adachi said it was too early to phase out ultra-loose monetary policy due to uncertainty over the price outlook, brushing aside expectations of an early tweak to its controversial yield curve control policy. "Amid huge uncertainty over the price outlook, there are upside and downside risks. "When considering whether it's appropriate to change monetary policy, we must carefully take into account such risks," he said. Adachi said distortions in the shape of the yield curve have dissolved, arguing that there was no need to tweak YCC now. But there's high uncertainty over our baseline inflation outlook, so it's premature to tweak monetary policy," he said.
Persons: Seiji Adachi, Adachi, Leika, Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: KAGOSHIMA, Japan, U.S, Kagoshima
But there's very high uncertainty on next year's wage negotiations and the sustainability of wage growth," Governor Kazuo Ueda told a briefing. The BOJ's decision contrasts sharply with that of the European Central Bank, which raised borrowing costs to a 22-year high on Thursday. NOT ENTIRELY DOVISHBank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at a group interview with media in Tokyo, Japan, May 25, 2023. The yen's recent decline could also heighten calls from politicians for the BOJ to tweak YCC, as it squeezes households and retailers by pushing up raw material import costs. "But it may be forced to act if the yen weakens further and drives up import costs, angering the public.
Persons: Ueda, Kazuo Ueda, Kim Kyung, We've, Izuru Kato, Leika Kihara, Kantaro Komiya, Sam Holmes, Kim Coghill Organizations: Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Companies, Totan, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Bank, Tokyo, Japan
The BOJ's decision contrasts sharply with that of the European Central Bank, which raised borrowing costs to a 22-year high on Thursday and signalled the likelihood of further hikes. Also this week, the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday signalled it was not yet done with its fight against inflation. As widely expected, the BOJ maintained its -0.1% short-term interest rate target and a 0% cap on the 10-year bond yield set under its yield curve control (YCC) policy. An upgrade to the BOJ's inflation forecast in a quarterly review in July is seen as a done-deal, though central bank officials have said a rise in inflation alone won't automatically trigger a policy shift. Ueda has said solid, sustained wage growth must accompany rising inflation for the BOJ to contemplate a policy tweak.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda's, Shigeto Nagai, Izuru Kato, Shunichi Suzuki, Ueda, Leika Kihara, Kantaro Komiya, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, Totan, Graphics, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan
FACTBOX BOJ's next steps and triggers for policy shift
  + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
While Ueda has stressed the BOJ will be in no rush to dial back stimulus, the central bank is dropping clues on possible triggers of a policy shift. ABANDON OR TWEAK YIELD TARGETIn ending YCC, the first step will be to abandon or modify the 10-year yield target. One idea would be to widen the band around the yield target, now set at 50 basis points on either side. TWEAKING FORWARD GUIDANCEBefore tweaking the yield cap, the BOJ could drop more hints of a policy shift such as by modifying forward guidance. Big upward revisions to its inflation forecasts at a July quarterly review would signal the BOJ's conviction that conditions for a policy shift are falling into place.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda, YCC, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan
The central bank is also likely to keep intact a pledge to "patiently" sustain massive stimulus to ensure Japan sustainably achieves its 2% inflation target accompanied by wage hikes. The BOJ review comes after the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday to pause interest rate hikes as it closely watches the lagged economic impact of past monetary tightening. But he also said the BOJ will "act swiftly" if its inflation projections prove wrong, and pointed to signs that corporate price-setting behaviour was starting to change. With companies offering the largest pay hikes in three decades, the BOJ is also dropping hints that Japan's prolonged era of wage stagnation may be ending. In an academic paper issued in May, the BOJ said inflation and wage growth could accelerate abruptly once costs exceed a certain threshold - and that once wages begin to rise, the trend could persist.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Federal, Reuters, Thomson Locations: BOJ, TOKYO, Japan
Factbox: BOJ's next steps and triggers for policy shift
  + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
While Ueda has stressed the BOJ will be in no rush to dial back stimulus, the central bank is dropping clues on possible triggers of a policy shift. ABANDON OR TWEAK YIELD TARGETIn ending YCC, the first step will be to abandon or modify the 10-year yield target. One idea would be to widen the band around the yield target, now set at 50 basis points on either side. TWEAKING FORWARD GUIDANCEBefore tweaking the yield cap, the BOJ could drop more hints of a policy shift such as by modifying forward guidance. Big upward revisions to its inflation forecasts at a July quarterly review would signal the BOJ's conviction that conditions for a policy shift are falling into place.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda, YCC, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan
The package, which Kishida is likely to explain at a press conference, may help his party appeal to the public with promises of payouts. Kishida has said he hopes to double child care spending, now about 4.7 trillion yen ($33.7 billion), by the early 2030s. Under the plan, the government is likely to earmark about 3.5 trillion yen annually for the next three years for child care allowances and support for those taking child care leave. Analysts, however, doubt whether the package will do much to stem a chronic decline in the birthrate and Japan's rapidly ageing population. ($1=139.4600 yen)Reporting by Takaya Yamaguchi and Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Leika Kihara and Clarence FernandezOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Fumio Kishida, Kishida, Toru Suehiro, Japan's birthrate, Takaya Yamaguchi, Leika Kihara, Clarence Fernandez Organizations: Reuters, Analysts, Daiwa Securities, Thomson Locations: TOKYO
Summary May wholesale prices up 5.1% yr/yr vs f'recast +5.5%Slowdown in wholesale inflation in line with BOJ viewFood, machinery prices up, signals broadening inflationTOKYO, June 12 (Reuters) - Japan's wholesale inflation slowed for a fifth consecutive month in May because of sliding fuel and commodity prices, data showed on Monday, a sign cost-push pressure that has driven up consumer inflation may be subsiding. The data underscores the central bank's view that consumer inflation will slow in coming months as global commodity prices slide from last year's peak levels. The corporate goods price index (CGPI), which measures the price companies charge each other for goods and services, rose 5.1% in May compared with a year earlier, BOJ data showed, slower than the median market forecast for a 5.5% gain. The rise came after a revised 5.9% increase in April and was well off the peak of 10.6% hit in December last year, as prices of electricity, fuel, nonferrous metals and chemical goods fell, data showed. Japan's core consumer inflation hit 3.4% in April as companies continued to raise prices, casting doubt on the BOJ's view that inflation will slowly move back below 2% toward the latter half of the current fiscal year ending in March 2024.
Persons: Leika Kihara, Kim Coghill, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Bank of Japan, Reuters, Thomson
The Bank of England in February removed its explicit guidance and tied decisions to inflation data. The Bank of Japan, by contrast, still battling to raise perennially weak inflation, has left the core part of its guidance intact with a pledge to "patiently" sustain loose policies. The European Central Bank says it has adopted a "meeting-by-meeting" approach with "a strong preference against returning to outright forward guidance on policy rates." If the projections show the policy rate moving up later this year, officials will likely face questions if they do as expected and hold rates steady at the June meeting. If the rate is not seen moving up, they will face questions about not being responsive to recent data showing strong inflation despite pledging to be "data dependent."
Persons: Jerome Powell, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Powell, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke, Gregory Daco, Louis, James Bullard, Data's, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Louis Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Central
TOKYO, June 12 (Reuters) - Japanese wholesale prices rose 5.1% in May from a year earlier, slowing for the fifth straight month due to sliding fuel and raw material costs, central bank data showed on Monday. The rise in the corporate goods price index (CGPI), which measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services, was slower than a median market forecast for a 5.5% gain and followed a revised 5.9% increase in April. The slowdown in wholesale price growth heightens the chance Japan's consumer inflation will moderate towards the central bank's 2% target. Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Leika Kihara, Kim Coghill Organizations: Thomson Locations: TOKYO
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