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Warehouses Find Insulation From U.S. Banking Crisis
  + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Liz Young | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
An Amazon distribution center under construction in Detroit in 2021, when the company was in the midst of a rapid expansion of its logistics network. Industrial real-estate executives expect only limited fallout from the turmoil that has engulfed the U.S. banking sector, even as warehouse developers grapple with the rising interest rates and weakening demand that are dampening construction following a period of historic growth. “The availability of credit might likely be diminished in the short term as banks will begin to be more stringent on underwriting,” said Craig Meyer , president of industrial for the Americas at real-estate services firm JLL . He said he expects new projects this year will “be down as a result of some of these couple of financial issues, the increasing cost of capital and then the availability of capital.”
Predicted drops in house prices in the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany, Australia and New Zealand will come off price surges of as much as 50% since the start of the pandemic in 2020. House prices in Canada and New Zealand, which began to fall last year, were forecast to register a peak-to-trough drop of at least 20%, the poll showed. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsDouble-digit falls from recent peaks were also predicted for Australia (16.0%), Germany (11.5%) and the U.S. (10.0%). Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsAmong the most commonly cited reasons for house prices to remain elevated were crimped supply, made worse during the pandemic, when construction activity came to a near-halt, and ever-rising demand. While India's housing market will remain resilient despite rising interest rates, home prices in Dubai were also predicted to rise steadily.
Predicted drops in house prices in the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany, Australia and New Zealand will come off price surges of as much as 50% since the start of the pandemic in 2020. House prices in Canada and New Zealand, which began to fall last year, were forecast to register a peak-to-trough drop of at least 20%, the poll showed. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsDouble-digit falls from recent peaks were also predicted for Australia (16.0%), Germany (11.5%) and the U.S. (10.0%). Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsAmong the most commonly cited reasons for house prices to remain elevated were crimped supply, made worse during the pandemic, when construction activity came to a near-halt, and ever-rising demand. While India's housing market will remain resilient despite rising interest rates, home prices in Dubai were also predicted to rise steadily.
Workers around the world throughout Europe and Asia are going back to the office while U.S. employees are still working from home. Meanwhile, office attendance has returned to 70% to 90% in Europe and the Middle East, and around 80% to 110% in some Asian cities, meaning some workers are spending more time in the office now than pre-Covid. In particular, several global cities steadily reached at least 75% office occupancy throughout 2021 and 2022, according to JLL data, including Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Paris and Stockholm. Average office attendance in 10 major U.S. metros only recently reached 50% for the first time since the pandemic hit, based on data from Kastle Systems. Here are three big reasons why American workers aren't returning to the office while their global counterparts are:
Hong Kong’s office landlords face a tough rebound
  + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Thomas Shum | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
HONG KONG, March 1 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Hong Kong offices are emptier than in other Asian financial centres. Singapore and Tokyo boast rates well under half of Hong Kong’s level, and figures there are either improving or roughly unchanged. Last year, mainland-based companies accounted for less than 6% of all leases in Hong Kong’s key Central business district, from nearly 30% in 2019. Hong Kong’s economy shrunk for three of the last four years, and its population is slimming too. However, the plan to reduce its office footprint may not apply to Hong Kong, a person familiar with the situation told Breakingviews.
Public-transit systems in Europe and Asia are often more reliable and less prone to delays, making it easier to get to work. While U.S. offices are half empty three years into the Covid-19 pandemic, workplaces in Europe and Asia are bustling again. Americans have embraced remote work and turned their backs on offices with greater regularity than their counterparts overseas. U.S. office occupancy stands at 40% to 60% of prepandemic levels, varying within that range by month and by city. That compares with a 70%-to-90% rate in Europe and the Middle East, according to JLL , a property-services firm that manages 4.6 billion square feet of real estate globally.
Three experts tell Insider office prices need to fall before conversions are commonplace. But for these plans to be successful, the world of real estate must address the elephant in the room: Office buildings are simply too expensive. Moody's laid out some basic math: In 2021, the average New York apartment building traded at $434 a square foot. Now in the US, he's up to the same business but not yet with the vacant office buildings that dot the downtowns of large metropolises. Among them is an older, 130,000-square-foot St. Louis office building, which represents some of the city's most outdated stock, Rubin told Insider.
Insider's Matt Turner and Cadie Thompson share their biggest takeaways from the World Economic Forum. More than 1,500 business leaders descended on Davos in the Swiss Alps last week for the World Economic Forum's annual meeting. The week of Davos, Alphabet published an explainer on its approach to AI signed by execs including CEO Sundar Pichai. "With every technology, there is good and then there's bad," Rima Qureshi, Verizon's chief strategy officer, told Insider. Several of those who spoke with Insider highlighted the need for much-greater collaboration among companies — and a willingness to experiment.
Real estate industry relies on predictability, says JLL CEO
  + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailReal estate industry relies on predictability, says JLL CEOChristian Ulbrich, CEO at JLL, discusses how current macro economic pressures and uncertainty are impacting the real estate market.
But this could present an opportunity to address shortages of homes, property bosses said. "Office buildings need to be converted to residential," said Howard Lutnick, chairman and CEO of New York-based investment firm Cantor Fitzgerald, during a panel discussion. Offices are emptier than official data suggests as most buildings are still generating income for landlords. However, as these rental contracts expire, cities like New York will have a significant number of obsolete buildings, said Christian Ulbrich, CEO of global property consultancy JLL Inc. (JLL.N). Millions of workers were forced to work from home during lockdowns aimed at stalling the spread of COVID-19 in 2020.
It's time to face a harsher reality, real estate executives told financial and world leaders at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday. The results of flexible work programs have hit the values of older office buildings in cities across the world as office tenants downsize. Sajwani, Palladitcheff, Ulbrich and Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick all agreed that many office buildings will need to be repurposed or torn down. It's those less attractive places that face multiple challenges of crime and homelessness where the value of office buildings will deteriorate "quite quickly." Office buildings "will become eyesores and they will need to be fixed," Lutnick said.
BEIJING — China reported GDP growth for 2022 that beat expectations as December retail sales came in far better than projected. The GDP growth number did miss the official target of around 5.5% set in March. Retail sales drop far less than expectedRetail sales fell by 0.2% for the year. Those online sales accounted for 27.2% of total retail sales. and U.S.China’s leaders are set to announce the full-year GDP growth target in March at an annual parliamentary meeting.
Davos, Switzerland CNN —Bullishness about the global economy has been in short supply among business leaders in recent months, with fears of recession clouding the outlook and restraining investment. That’s thanks in large part to China, whose sudden removal of strict coronavirus restrictions late last year is expected to unleash a wave of spending that may offset economic weakness in the United States and Europe. Near term, China is in the grip of its worst coronavirus outbreak, keeping many people indoors and emptying shops and restaurants in recent weeks. “I’m expecting a solid growth number for China in 2023,” said Kevin Rudd, president of the Asia Society and a former prime minister of Australia. “Maybe we will be surprised also in the first half of the year.”Averting a global recession is not a done deal, however.
Employee satisfaction is a big motivator for companies to go green, particularly as the U.K. faces its tightest labor market in decades. She's looking to grow her business but her former warehouse office building is too small and inaccessible for people with disabilities, so it's "mission critical" that the team relocates. "It's not like you're stumbling over these green buildings all over the place. "In light of the planet burning this might not seem as relevant [but] your office building is a huge reflection of your business' brand. "What is really expensive is if you have a big office building that's used one or two days a week.
Hong Kong November home prices ease to more than 5-yr low
  + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
HONG KONG, Dec 28 (Reuters) - Hong Kong private home prices dropped 3.3% in November to the lowest since August 2017, official data showed on Wednesday, as its housing market - one of the most unaffordable in the world - is set to post the first annual drop since 2008. November's fall in home prices came after a revised 2.7% drop in October. Home prices in Hong Kong have fallen 13.8% in the first 110 months of the year. For 2023, real estate consultancy Cushman & Wakefield expects home prices to be 0-5% lower than this year, with prices stabilizing in the second half after an expected peak of interest rates. Another consultancy, JLL, expects prices to fall another 10% next year for the mass market.
More middle-income households are shopping there, lured by low prices and Aldi's "treasure hunt" approach. Smaller properties are cheaper to buy and maintain, and Aldi has said that its store layout enables "quick and easy shopping." Monford added that consumers "don't mind" that products aren't taken out of their boxes because they're shopping at Aldi for value. Campbell said the Aldi stores near her generally had just four or five aisles. Vadakkepatt said Aldi's stores have fewer employees and shorter hours than at other chains.
Quiet Platforms, the logistics subsidiary of apparel retailer American Eagle Outfitters Inc., is planning to open warehouses in dozens of markets across the U.S. as it works to offer next-day delivery nationally within three years. The warehouses will serve the retailers using Quiet Platforms’ supply-chain network, which include sports goods retailer Fanatics Inc., shoe brand Steve Madden Ltd. and discount outlet Saks Off Fifth. Shekar Natarajan, president of Quiet Platforms Photo: Brittainy Newman/Associated PressThe company already has nine distribution centers in seven markets, but the new sites will likely include smaller facilities close to population centers and dedicated to specific tasks such as sorting packages or consolidating goods, said Shekar Natarajan, president of Quiet Platforms. He said Quiet Platforms currently delivers about 70% of packages next day and around 38% on the same day. “Everyone in retail says we want to be in the right place at the right time with the right quantities,” Mr. Natarajan said.
Institutional investors have earmarked as much as $110 billion to buy or build single-family homes. Institutional investors now own about 3% of the roughly 20 million single-family-rental homes in the US, according to Roofstock, an online marketplace for single-family investment properties. That would be nearly 9% of the roughly 88 million single-family homes in the US, according to the Census Bureau's most recent statistics from 2020. Better deals expected in the years aheadThere are signs the institutional investors won't have to wait long to begin buying. That leaves between roughly $70 billion and $80 billion that could still flow into the sector.
Justin Sloan retired at 32 years old, just five years after he started investing in real estate. Sloan did this by branching out to commercial real estate, which he prefers over residential. Buying his first residential propertySloan began researching other investable assets such as franchises and municipal bonds, but found the idea of real estate investing especially appealing. "I was that naive to the idea that you could hire someone else to take care of your real estate." That same year, he stopped opening more cell phone stores, and instead directed all his revenue towards real estate investing.
Hector Retamal | Afp | Getty ImagesBEIJING — As mainland China relaxes many of its stringent Covid controls, analysts point out the country is far from a quick return to a pre-pandemic situation. Mainland China's daily Covid infections, mostly asymptomatic, surged to a record high above 40,000 in late November. Looking ahead, it's pretty clear that China's Covid policy is about to cross a turning point, said Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research for Greater China at JLL. That means there may be a surge in Covid infections, and China's policy will never go back, Pang said. Goldman Sachs analysts expect China's reopening — defined as a shift away from lockdowns — to come in the second quarter of 2023, according to a separate report on Wednesday.
Sloan pointed to the rising trend of stores leaving big malls for strip malls as another catalyst. But while the residential market has stolen the spotlight, there's still one stone left unturned: the commercial real estate sector. The pandemic-induced spike in rents has hurt property types across the board, and commercial properties are no exception. But real estate investor Justin Sloan believes that major opportunities for big returns still lie ahead in the commercial real estate space — specifically, in strip malls. "I'm expecting there to be opportunities in strip malls, and that's why I'm definitely planning on putting money there."
The findings highlight how the housing market, one of the biggest employers in a country of around 1.4 billion people, is likely to remain a stable contributor to growth in Asia's third-largest economy going forward. Relatively modest interest rate risk partly explains why all but one of 10 analysts who answered an additional question said the chances of a significant slowdown in the housing market over the coming year were low. Nine of 11 respondents said either an economic slowdown or rising rates would be the biggest challenge for first-time homebuyers. "While India ... has been quite resilient amidst global disturbances, the chances of a slowdown in India cannot be ruled out," said Anuj Puri, chairman of ANAROCK Property Consultants. (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)Reporting by Milounee Purohit and Indradip Ghosh in Bengaluru Polling by Maneesh Kumar Editing by Hari Kishan, Ross Finley and Matthew LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Police form a cordon during a protest against Chinas strict zero COVID measures on November 27, 2022 in Beijing, China. "It raises the pressure on Xi Jinping, and I think likely puts him towards a more authoritarian approach to governance in China," Green added. As such, Xi's CCP could clamp down further on public protests, Green noted. That was the case during 2019's pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, and 1989's Tiananmen Square protests on the Chinese mainland. "In the short term, the Covid policy will only be fine-tuned without moving the needle," Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research for Greater China at JLL, said Monday.
A couple pass necessities over a Covid lockdown barrier in Guangzhou city on Nov. 17, 2022. Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China won't likely make major changes to its Covid policy in the near future despite this weekend's protests, analysts said. Groups of people in China took to the streets over the weekend to vent their frustration, built up over nearly three years of stringent Covid controls. Separately, the People's Daily ran a front page op-ed Monday on the need to make Covid controls more targeted and effective, while removing those that should be removed. He noted how it was no longer sustainable for China's economy and society to accept continued Covid controls.
WiredScore certifies buildings' tech capabilities, like LEED does with environmental ratings. WiredScore CEO Arie Barendrecht walked Insider through the pitch deck he used to raise $15 million. In a world of remote work, potential office tenants have become pickier about their spaces. Generally speaking, prospective office tenants have little insight into what their office WiFi will look like. The company now also certifies technology in apartment buildings, the office of the remote worker.
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