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He called the U.S. central bank's misreading of the issue "a major failure" that can mar analysis of where the economy stands. Since 2016, policies from the vastly different Trump and Biden administrations have combined in a sort of accidental complementarity to keep both job and economic growth above the Fed's estimate of potential. Median Fed policymaker projections of potential U.S. economic growth have slid from a level around 2.5% a decade ago to 1.8% as of June 2023, when the last projections were issued. Under pressure from colleagues to raise interest rates as the economy accelerated, Greenspan resisted and accommodated the expansion instead of fighting it. But it could help economic growth continue even as prices cool, another prop for the "soft landing" the Fed hopes to engineer and possible evidence of rising potential.
Persons: John Williams, Joe Biden, Adam Posen, Donald Trump, Trump's, Biden, Dana Peterson, Peterson, Jerome Powell, Board's Peterson, Alan Greenspan's, Greenspan, Jackson, John Fernald, Huiyu Li, Michael Feroli, Antulio Bomfim, Powell, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed, San Francisco, Fed, Reuters, BlackRock, Bank of England, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Biden, Conference Board, Jackson, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Trust Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Washington
But the US itself poses the biggest threat to the buck's dominance, according to Benn Steil. Debt-ceiling standoffs and “growing weaponization” could undermine the currency, he said. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. "The biggest threat to the dollar's dominance comes not from competitive alternatives, but from the US government itself," Steil, who's the director of international economics for the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote. "Just as the overuse of antibiotics fuels antimicrobial resistance, excessive use of sanctions prompts targeted countries, as well as potential targets, to reduce their engagement with the US financial system," Steil wrote.
Persons: Benn Steil ., Benn Steil, Biden, Fitch, heightening, Vladimir Putin, that's, Elon Musk, Steil Organizations: Service, Project Syndicate, Council, Foreign Relations, International Monetary Fund, European Union Locations: China, Russia, Wall, Silicon, US, Ukraine
Samsung's 11-year-old investment in ASML has been hugely lucrative. Over the past decade, ASML shares have delivered a whopping 25% annualised return to its shareholders. It's part of Samsung's ambitious $230 billion commitment to bolster South Korea's semiconductor and high-tech sectors over the next 20 years. Moreover, Samsung's cash is probably held in overseas affiliates and subsidiaries across different jurisdictions; its annual report lists hundreds of entities abroad. That should help ease Samsung’s vexing cash bind, but the company may still need to come up with some creative funding choices.
Persons: Taiwan's TSMC, ASML, Antony Currie, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Samsung Electronics, Korean Economic, Intel, Samsung, HK, SFA Engineering, Apple, Korea Economic, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, KS, ASML, United States, Korea
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's premature to think China is due for a 'Lehman Moment': Peterson Institute's Nicholas LardyNicholas Lardy, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the possibility of China heading into a 'Lehman Moment,' exports suggesting growth of underlying demand in China, and more.
Persons: Peterson, Nicholas Lardy Nicholas Lardy Organizations: Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: China
A child plays the game "Honour of Kings" by Tencent at home in Dezhou, Shandong province, China July 2, 2017. REUTERS/Stringer Acquire Licensing RightsHONG KONG, Aug 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China's economic woes have gifted Tencent (0700.HK) an unexpected silver lining. Revenue rose a decent 11% to 149 billion yuan ($20.4 billion), but fell slightly short of the average analyst forecast compiled by Refinitiv. That compares to the 151.7 billion yuan average analyst forecast of 21 analysts compiled by Refinitiv. Adjusted net profit, after excluding certain one-time and non-cash items, rose 33% to 37.5 billion yuan.
Persons: Tencent, Stringer, HONG KONG, Refinitiv, James Mitchell, pare, Alibaba, Antony Currie, Thomas Shum Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, HK, Revenue, Tencent, Citi, Refinitiv, Thomson Locations: Dezhou, Shandong province, China, HONG, Tencent, Hong Kong
A child plays the game "Honour of Kings" by Tencent at home in Dezhou, Shandong province, China July 2, 2017. REUTERS/Stringer Acquire Licensing RightsHONG KONG, Aug 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China's economic woes have gifted Tencent (0700.HK) an unexpected silver lining. Revenue rose a decent 11% to 149 billion yuan ($20.4 billion), but fell slightly short of the average analyst forecast compiled by Refinitiv. That compares to the 151.7 billion yuan average analyst forecast of 21 analysts compiled by Refinitiv. Adjusted net profit, after excluding certain one-time and non-cash items, rose 33% to 37.5 billion yuan.
Persons: Tencent, Stringer, HONG KONG, Refinitiv, James Mitchell, pare, Alibaba, Antony Currie, Thomas Shum Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, HK, Revenue, Tencent, Citi, Refinitiv, Thomson Locations: Dezhou, Shandong province, China, HONG, Tencent, Hong Kong
HONG KONG, Aug 15 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Hong Kong has lost some permanent appeal. The introduction of two sets of approvals was mandated three decades ago when foreign investors wanted additional protections to invest in the first wave of Chinese firms listing in Hong Kong. China's domestic securities laws have since developed and global investors can now directly buy shares onshore through various channels. That could lead to more onshore shares being issued relative to offshore shares, further diluting minority owners in Hong Kong. In 2020, Hong Kong shareholders vetoed the Bank of Zhengzhou's proposal to avoid such an outcome.
Persons: Hong Kong, HKEX, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Hong Kong Exchanges, HK, China Securities Regulatory Commission, Asia Securities Industry, Financial Markets Association, Corporate Governance Association, China Life Insurance, Wall, Hong, Bank of, Companies, Global, Hang Seng China Enterprise Index, Graphics Global, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Hong Kong, China, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong
Analysts said the U.S. was making such moves with an eye on rising tensions over Taiwan, given that the potential fallout from a conflict between China and Taiwan would be "unimaginable." Yurchenko, who spoke to CNBC ahead of the Wednesday announcement, dubbed the scale of the risks regarding Taiwan as "unimaginable." Beijing, meanwhile, has called for "reunification" with Taiwan, last year describing its status in a white paper as an "unalterable" part of China. watch nowElina Ribakova, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said that China was watching the West's approach to Russia closely. Western sanctions against Moscow keep coming, almost 1½ years after Russian forces crossed Ukraine's borders.
Persons: Drew Angerer, Joe Biden, Olena, it's, Olena Yurchenko, Yurchenko, Kyle Bass, Xi Jinping, Biden, Ukraine's Yurchenko, they've, Elina Ribakova, Ribakova, Daniel Ferrie, I'm Organizations: Getty, Wednesday, Foreign Ministry, Economic Security, of, of Ukraine, CNBC, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Moscow, Ukraine, European, European Union, Hayman Capital Locations: China, disassociation, Beijing, U.S, Russia, Taiwan, United States, Washington, of Ukraine, India, Taiwan Strait, Ukraine, Ukraine's, Moscow
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBiden's executive order targeting investments in China just the 'tip of the iceberg,' says law firmClete Willems, partner at Akin Gump and former White House international economics advisor under the Trump administration, discusses the signing of an executive order aimed at regulating new U.S. investments and expertise that supports Chinese development of sensitive technologies
Persons: Clete Willems, Akin Gump, Trump Organizations: White House Locations: China
The order is aimed at preventing American capital and expertise from helping China develop technologies that could support its military modernization and undermine U.S. national security. China said on Thursday it is "gravely concerned" about the order and that it reserves the right to take measures. The White House said Biden consulted allies on the plan and incorporated feedback from Group of Seven nations. "Today the United States is taking a strategic first step to ensure American investment does not go to fund Chinese military advancement." Last year, total U.S.-based venture-capital investment in China plummeted to $9.7 billion from $32.9 billion in 2021, according to PitchBook data.
Persons: Joe Biden, Elizabeth Frantz, Biden's, Biden, Chuck Schumer, Marco Rubio, Emily Benson, David Shepardson, Andrea Shalal, Stephen Nellis, Max Cherney, Krystal Hu, Karen Freifeld, Idrees Ali, Liz Lee, Lincoln, Jonathan Oatis, Cynthia Osterman, Michael Perry Organizations: White, REUTERS, Wednesday, U.S, Treasury, Biden, Chinese Commerce Ministry, Seven, Democratic, Republicans, REPUBLICAN, The Semiconductor Industry Association, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, WASHINGTON, China, U.S, Japan, Netherlands, United States, Washington, Beijing
Dong Wenjie | Moment | Getty ImagesChina criticized President Joe Biden's long-awaited executive order regulating fresh U.S. investment in technology — but stopped short of issuing immediate counter measures. "China expresses its grave concern and reserves the right to implement measures," the Chinese Commerce Ministry said in the statement, according to a CNBC translation. Biden's order comes amid an escalating race for global technology supremacy. watch now"This seriously deviates from the market economy and fair competition principles that the U.S. has always advocated," the Chinese Ministry of Commerce added. The wording on Biden's executive order appears similar to a toned-down version of the initial Outbound Investment Transparency Act the Senate recently introduced.
Persons: Dong Wenjie, Joe Biden's, Prasad, Janet Yellen Organizations: Images China, Chinese Commerce Ministry, Biden, CNBC, Chinese Ministry of Commerce, Cornell University, Treasury, Senate Locations: Shanghai, Asia, China, China , Hong Kong, Macao, U.S, Japan, Netherlands, Beijing
Why China’s Economy Is Stumbling - The New York Times
  + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Decades of miraculous growth had transformed a desperately poor nation into an economic superpower, with a gross domestic product that by some measures was larger than America’s. China’s aggressive response to Covid was widely praised; its Belt and Road Initiative, a huge program of infrastructure investments around the world, was clearly a bid for global influence, maybe even supremacy. But now China is stumbling. Its “zero Covid” policy of locking cities down at the first indication of an outbreak proved untenable, but abandoning the policy hasn’t produced the expected economic surge. Some analysts attribute China’s stumble to policies of its current leadership.
Persons: Covid, Adam Posen Organizations: Initiative, Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: China, Japan, U.S
Arkady Volozh, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Yandex Group of Companies, attends a session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Russia June 7, 2019. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File PhotoAug 10 (Reuters) - The co-founder of Russian internet giant Yandex (YNDX.O), Arkady Volozh, on Thursday condemned what he described as Russia's "barbaric" invasion of Ukraine, days after criticism in Russia over his apparent efforts to distance himself from the country. "Russia's invasion of Ukraine is barbaric, and I am categorically against it," Volozh said in a statement. Volozh developed Yandex in Russia, creating the country's largest tech company and ultimately taking it public on the U.S. Nasdaq stock exchange in 2011. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Yandex has sought to balance domestic pressure on one side with its Western investors on the other.
Persons: Arkady Volozh, Maxim, Volozh, , Yandex, Alexander Marrow, Jason Neely Organizations: Yandex, of Companies, St ., Economic, REUTERS, U.S, Nasdaq, European Union, Thomson Locations: St, St . Petersburg, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Ukraine –, Israel, Yandex
Murky supply chainsNot all advanced technologies are subject to Western sanctions on Russia. So, a Russian military, as well as its civilian economy, have become dependent," Sam Bendett, advisor at the Center for Naval Analyses, said. Meanwhile, sanctions on Russia are largely limited to Ukraine's Western allies, meaning that many countries continue to trade with Russia. And this is what the Russian industry as well as the Russian military and its intelligence services are taking advantage of," Bendett said. Sanctions clampdownThe burgeoning trade flows have prompted calls from Western allies to either get more countries on board with sanctions, or slap secondary sanctions on certain entities operating within those countries in a bid to stifle Russia's military strength.
Persons: Elina Ribakova, KSE, Sam Bendett, spokespeople, Bendett, Sellers Organizations: CNBC, Semiconductors, Peterson Institute for International Economics, KSE Institute, Kyiv School, Economics, United Arab, Moscow, Royal United Services Institute, U.S ., Center for Naval, Russian, Economic Security, of, CNBC Exports, Union, Russian Federation, European Union, Peterson Institute for International Locations: Russia, Moscow, China, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Ukraine, Russia's, U.S, Japan, Germany, Russian, microchips, Hong Kong, of Ukraine, Caucasus, Central Asia, Georgia, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan
China is suffering from "economic long COVID," Adam Posen wrote in Foreign Affairs. Like other authoritarian regimes, China's economic development is following a predictable pattern, he noted. "Low appetite for illiquid investment and low responsiveness to supportive macroeconomic policies: that, in a nutshell, is economic long COVID," he wrote. Despite the West's growing tensions with Beijing, China's economic woes aren't necessarily good news for its rivals either, Posen said. "When another global recession hits, China's growth will not help revive demand abroad as it did last time.
Persons: Adam Posen, Peterson, , Goldman Sachs, It's, Xi, COVID, Posen, there's Organizations: Foreign Affairs, Service, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Bank of America, Monetary Fund, Organization for Economic Cooperation, Development, China's Communist Party Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Beijing, Posen
HONG KONG, Aug 3 (Reuters Breakingviews) - South Korea’s dealmaking skeletons are back to haunt. Paul Singer's Elliott opposed a $9 billion union eight years ago of Samsung C&T (028260.KS) and Chiel Industries. South Korea’s successful prosecution of Lee, Park and a former minister that oversaw NPS, provided cause for Elliott to demand payback. Elliott sued in 2018 and the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague in June awarded the U.S. fund over $100 million. Far from being the end of it though, President Yoon Suk Yeol’s government is contesting that award in a British arbitration court.
Persons: Samsung's Lee, Paul Singer's Elliott, Elliott, Jay Y, Lee, Park Geun, Yoon Suk, Hague, Yoon, Taiwan's TSMC, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Korea Inc, Samsung, Chiel Industries, National Pension Service, NPS, U.S ., Korea, Trade, Global, Samsung Electronics, Apple, Tokyo, Korea's Ministry, Justice, Elliott Investment, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, U.S, Hague, Seoul, Korea, China, Beijing, Washington, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, United States
"You're too old to work at 35, but too young to retire at 60," one person wrote, bemoaning the "curse." It refers, specifically, to the typical Chinese employer's preference for hiring workers who haven't reached the sell-by date of their 35th birthday. And it's not just about finding work — Chinese workers being phased out at what was previously viewed as the prime of their careers means their livelihoods could be seriously affected. "At this point in time, youth unemployment is high, so many young workers are willing to work for less. Seah told Insider that increased competition for younger workers "will eventually drive up youth wages, making them relatively more expensive to hire."
Persons: haven't, Hector Retamal, Huang, Tania Lennon, Lennon, I, Kevin Frayer, workhorses, Kelvin Seah, Seah, aren't, National University of Singapore's Seah Organizations: Twitter, Service, Getty, Peterson Institute for International Economics, International Institute for Management Development, China Initiative, Bureau of Statistics, National University of Singapore, National Bureau of Statistics, Employers, National University of Singapore's Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Weibo, Beijing, AFP, Quy Huy
E-commerce app Temu is taking on the larger Shein by selling cheap Chinese-made goods to Western consumers. The company owned by $119 billion PDD (PDD.O) is more like an online dollar store. Moreover, Temu offers generous discounts and free or subsidised shipping to users. Parent company PDD, whose Pinduoduo e-commerce unit competes with Alibaba (9988.HK) and JD.com (9618.HK) in China, discloses little about its overseas business. Temu offers everything from home appliances to electronics to toys, making it more of a direct competitor to Amazon.
Persons: Shein, Breakingviews, Temu, PDD, Bernstein, Peter Thal Larsen, Aditya Munjuluru, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, United States, Wall Street, Temu, Bloomberg, HK, PDD, Thomson, & $ Locations: HONG KONG, Western, China, U.S, United States, Shein
In September, Medvedev said strategic nuclear weapons could be used to defend territories incorporated into Russia from Ukraine. And in January, as NATO member states debated new weapons shipments to Ukraine, Medvedev said defeat for Russia in the war could lead to nuclear conflict. “The loss of a nuclear power in a conventional war can provoke the outbreak of a nuclear war,” Medvedev wrote on Telegram in January. Nuclear rhetoricThe United States has previously warned Russia against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, both through private direct communications, as well as public channels, including at last year’s UN General Assembly. Russia has about 4,477 deployed and reserve nuclear warheads, including around 1,900 tactical nuclear weapons, according to the Federation of American Scientists.
Persons: Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin, , Medvedev, ” Medvedev, ” Medvedev’s, Putin, Matthew Miller, Alexander Lukashenko, Lukashenko Organizations: CNN, NATO, Russia’s Security, Helsinki, Russia, , Russia’s Defense, UN, Assembly, St ., Economic Forum, US Defense Intelligence Agency, US State Department, Federation of American Scientists Locations: Russia, Russian, Ukraine, Sweden, Finland, Turkey, Western, Moscow, United States, Belarus, St, St . Petersburg
“In the age of AI, where data is the new oil, China is the new Saudi Arabia”, venture capitalist Lee Kai-fu declared in 2018. Washington may soon tighten export restrictions to China by targeting AI semiconductors, according to the Wall Street Journal. A slowing economy and brutal price war in the fiercely competitive cloud market will only make monetising AI products harder. China’s AI moment has arrived, only with far less promise than initially hoped. China wants to become a world leader in AI by 2030, according to a 2017 roadmap released by the State Council.
Persons: Lee Kai, OpenAI's, Xi Jinping, Goldman Sachs, Robin Li, Baidu’s, Bernstein, SenseTime, Xi, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Saudi Arabia ”, OpenAI's ChatGPT, European Union, Baidu, HK, Nasdaq, Washington, Wall Street, Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, CloudWalk Technology, Cyberspace Administration, China, State, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, China, Republic, Saudi Arabia, United States, Beijing, York, Shanghai
Biden's economic agenda could make inflation worse, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said. But Summers said he disagrees with the principle behind those policies, warning that they could contribute to higher prices. The manufacturing policies also ignore the benefits of globalization and trade with other countries, which has lowered inflation, Summers said. Despite strong criticism from some commentators, other economists have defended Biden's economic plan. Bidenomics has largely been a success, Nobel economist Paul Krugman said, given the dramatic fall in inflation over the past year.
Persons: Larry Summers, Joe Biden's, Summers, Bidenomics, Paul Krugman Organizations: Service, Peterson Institute for International Economics, US, CNN Locations: Wall, Silicon, Ukraine
New York CNN Business —Larry Summers, the former Obama and Clinton official, slammed parts of President Joe Biden’s economic agenda as “increasingly dangerous” this week, saying it could end up causing higher prices for Americans. Specifically, Summers took issue with the administration’s trade stance, efforts to prop up US manufacturing and its antitrust crackdown. “It is wrong to suppose that manufacturing-based economic nationalism is a route to higher incomes or better standards of living for the middle class,” Summers said. Manufacturing on the riseBiden has made reviving American manufacturing a central part of his economic agenda. The White House has hailed a surge in private investment in American manufacturing under Biden’s watch.
Persons: Larry Summers, Obama, Joe Biden’s, , ” Summers, Summers, Biden, ” Biden, Morgan Stanley, , General Merrick Garland Organizations: New York CNN, Clinton, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Harvard, Harvard University, Treasury, , Justice Department Locations: America, Philadelphia,
Risk factors usually flag uncertainties in how Chinese laws are interpreted and enforced as well as the government's "substantial oversight and influence" over businesses. Chinese regulators want those boilerplate disclosures dropped; if not, offshore listing applications could be denied approval. Trying to appease both American and Chinese regulators will get tougher. On Friday, Chinese regulators held a rare meeting with KKR (KKR.N), Blackstone (BX.N), Carlyle (CG.O) and others to ensure they can continue to invest in the country. China's new offshore listing rules came into effect on March 31.
Persons: Didi Global, underwriters Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Carlyle, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Global, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, underwriters, JPMorgan, KKR, Blackstone, Bloomberg, Communist Party, China Securities Regulatory Commission, SEC, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Beijing, Hong Kong, United States, New York, China
CNN —The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has “no reason to doubt” Russian President Vladimir Putin’s claim that Russia has moved a first batch of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, senior DIA officials said on Friday. It is not clear how much of that arsenal Putin intends to move, and US and Western officials have not publicly confirmed that any weapons have been transferred to Belarus. But the senior DIA officials told a small group of reporters Friday that analysts have “no reason to doubt” Putin’s claims, and no reason to doubt “that they have had some success” in transferring the weapons. But the senior DIA officials said they do not believe Lukashenko would have any control over the arsenal. It would most likely be entirely controlled by Russia, the officials said.
Persons: Vladimir Putin’s, Putin, ” Putin’s, Ben Wallace, , Putin “, Wallace, Matthew Miller, , Aleksander Lukashenko, Lukashenko, Miller Organizations: CNN, The Defense Intelligence Agency, St ., Economic, Federation of American Scientists, British, State Department, Nuclear Weapons, , Russian Locations: Russian, Russia, Belarus, St, St . Petersburg, Soviet
"Consumers are not spending, mainly driven by the bleak outlook for the property market. Disappointing retail numbers and property market sales show it doesn't seem that the boost from rate cuts is sufficient. ..the property market is beginning another slowdown - the government will have to come up with more stimulus for property." "Nonetheless, we think more stimulus is required to stabilise and restore confidence in the property market." ZHIWEI ZHANG, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PINPOINT ASSET MANAGEMENT, HONG KONG"Nominal GDP growth turns out to be lower than real GDP growth in Q2, the first time since comparable data are available in Q4 2016.
Persons: CHRISTOPHER WONG, LOUIS KUIJS, CAROL KONG, XING ZHAOPENG, KEN CHEUNG, ALVIN TAN, VISHNU VARATHAN, MARCO SUN, CHEN, TONY SYCAMORE, ZHIWEI ZHANG, JING LIU Organizations: Gross, National Bureau, Statistics, Shanghai, NBS, BANK OF, ANZ, MIZUHO BANK, OF, OF ASIA FX, RBC, MUFG BANK, IG, SYDNEY, Friday's, BANK OF SINGAPORE, HSBC, stoke, Authorities, Reuters, U.S, Thomson Locations: U.S, SINGAPORE, ASIA, HONG KONG, SYDNEY, CHINA, SHANGHAI, OF ASIA, China
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